In a surprising development, the Republicans have lost the man who may well have been their best candidate in a normally solid seat — meaning that it might just turn into a real race. Wyoming state Rep. Colin Simpson (R), son of former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson, announced yesterday that he is not running for the open House seat, after all. Simpson had indicated earlier this year that he would run against incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Cubin in the primary. Now neither of them are running.

Cubin's 2006 Democratic opponent, Gary Trauner, is already running again after barely losing, and can count himself lucky over Simpson's departure. However, Wyoming remains a heavily Republican state that will in all likelihood go for the GOP presidential nominee by a huge margin, and there are plenty of other prominent Republicans statewide.

Roll Call is reporting that Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R-WY) will reportedly announce her retirement tomorrow.

Cubin has been absent from the House for much of the year, caring for her ill husband back home in Wyoming. Cubin had already been facing a primary challenge from state House Majority Leader Colin Simpson, the son of former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson (R-WY), as well as a second campaign from 2006 Democratic nominee Gary Trauner.

In Cubin's special case, the open seat might actually improve the GOP's chance of holding the seat. Despite representing an overwhelmingly Republican state, Cubin barely won re-election last year after she threatened to hit the Libertarian candidate — who was himself in a wheelchair.

GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin has hung on to win a seventh term over Dem challenger Gary Trauner, the Associated Press is reporting. Though Cubin prevailed by just over 1,000 votes -- 93,336 to 92,324 -- it wasn't enough to trigger an automatic recount. Just for the heck of it, we're wallowing in a bit of nostalgia for sleazy GOP attack ads and bringing you a relic of the campaign -- an NRCC ad attacking Trauner for being from New York.

It looks as if the GOP's post-Sept. 11 love affair with New York is officially over: The NRCC's latest ad blasting Dem Gary Trauner is attacking him for...being from New York City. As some swing jazz plays in the background, the ad pans across NYC streets and shows an image of Trauner — who's closing fast on GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin in this very red state — in an "I love New York" shirt. The narrator says: "New Yorkers march to a different drummer. Maybe that's why Gary Trauner is so out of step with Wyoming values. He's from New York. Not Wyoming...He might be right for New York. But he's dead wrong for Wyoming." Trauner has lived in Wyoming for over 15 years. Watch it here.

Update: In response to readers' suspicions that this ad is subtly anti-Semitic, Election Central called up Trauner campaign manager Linda Stoval for comment. "When I talked to Helen Kennedy from the New York Daily News, she asked me if I thought that was code," Stoval said. "And honestly, I did not know what she was talking about." Stoval told EC she knows of no anti-Semitic campaigning on Cubin's part — indeed, she doubts that many people even know Trauner is Jewish — and furthermore doesn't think such an attack would have any pull in Wyoming.

Now this must feel like a slap in the face: CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite," suggesting the possibility of a huge upset. CQ, in a wry reference to the recent incident where Cubin suggested she wanted to "slap" a wheelchair victim, notes wryly that rising public doubts about Cubin in this premiere GOP district stem less from ideology and more from her personality's "rough edge." More from CQ after the jump.

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In a sign that GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin is worried about holding her seat, her pollsters are now testing an odd new message: They're asking voters how they'd feel about Dem Gary Trauner if they knew he was a "New York liberal." The Jackson Hole News reports that several locals claim they've gotten calls that start with general questions before raising the "liberal" line and claiming Trauner favors a national gun registry -- which Trauner insists he oppposes. Trauner alleges a "push poll." But a Cubin spokesman insists it's just a test of negative message for future ads. Either way, the calls show that the battle for the seat—which should have been a GOP lock—is instead a hard-fought one.