WY-AL

A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Bachmann's Challenger Goes On The Air
Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) Democratic opponent El Tinklenberg is taking advantage of the huge windfall of donation he's gotten in the wake of Bachmann's Red-Scare-inciting Hardball appearance -- he's raised $700,000 in the last few days, and counting -- and is spending $188,000 to air this new spot introducing himself to voters:

This is very much a GOP district -- it voted 57%-42% for George W. Bush in 2004 -- but the Tinklenberg campaign hopes to capitalize on voter backlash against Bush Republicanism in general and against Bachmann's extremism in particular. Meanwhile, CQ has changed its rating on the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."

Bachmann Denies Questioning Obama's Patriotism
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is firing back at critics of her McCarthyite statements on Hardball last week. "Despite the way the blogs and the Democratic Party are spinning it, I never called all liberals anti-American, I never questioned Barack Obama's patriotism," Bachmann writes in a guest op-ed for the Politico. Here's what Bachmann said, via Nexis: "Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views."

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A Night At The Congressional Races

NRSC: We Are Not Pulling Out Of Colorado
The NRSC is denying reports that they are pulling out of the Colorado Senate race, a story that has been circulating on the blogs today. "Reports that we are pulling out of Colorado are false," NRSC spokesman John Randall told Election Central, adding that another ad is going up on the air.

DCCC Out-Raises NRCC In Loan Money, Too
The DCCC has taken out a $15 million loan in order to give themselves a financial boost in the home stretch of the election. This is nearly twice the the $8 million loan the NRCC took out in an attempt to even out their serious financial gap against the DCCC -- so the DCCC has responded in kind.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The economy continues to dominate the down-ticket races, and it's looking more and more like Dems stand to make significant gains off the crisis.

Cook Report: Dems Could Potentially Reach 60 Senate Seats
Charlie Cook writes in his latest column that although it remains a long-shot, the chances have gone up considerably for Democrats to reach 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. "Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP," Cook writes. "Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances."

Dem Ad: Social Security Privatization A Roller-Coaster Ride On Wall St.
Check out this ad from the DCCC, reminding voters that GOP candidates who want to invest Social Security funds in the stock market don't exactly have a strong case in light of the current financial crisis. This one targets Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican nominee for an open GOP-held seat in Missouri:

"But Luetkemeyer supports privatizing Social Security, risking your retirement on the Wall St. roller-coaster," the announcer says, as the camera progresses to the top of a roller-coaster. "So if you or a loved one plan to depend on Social Security, hold on tight."

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A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: GOP candidates are on the defensive on the economic crisis in a big way -- and in their fumbling efforts to respond are digging themselves in deeper and deeper.

Coleman Keeps Saying Government Could Net Huge Profit On Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is defending his bizarre statement on Monday that the proposed $700 billion bailout for Wall St. could make the government a profit of 10 or 20 times the principal. "If you buy assets at close to fire-sale prices and the market stabilizes, you'll see an improvement in assets," Coleman said -- forgetting that this bailout is structured in such a way as to specifically avoid buying assets at fire-sale prices, and the securities being bought would be unlikely to return to their hypothetical maturity valuations.

GOP Candidate's Staffer Uses Fake Name At Dem Candidate's Press Conference
The press secretary for House candidate Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has been caught calling into a press conference by Democrat Gary Trauner, using a fake name and identifying herself as a Trauner supporter so as to better asked a pointed question about the Dems' energy policies. This seat has been in GOP hands since the 1978 election, but Trauner's near-win back in 2006 makes this a very competitive race for the open race this time around.

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Updates On Still Officially Undecided Races

Here's a rundown of the latest developments in the yet-to-be officially decided House races:

Fl-13: Problems still abound in this district, where about 15 percent of all Sarasota County voters using touch-screen machines didn't register a choice in the Congressional race. Lawyers for Dem Christine Jennings recently complained that GOPer Vern Buchahan is purposely stalling the audit of the voting machines by failing to offer up his an expert to participate in the process. A manual recount is underway, but the audit by the state is Jennings only real chance to successfully contest the election. Paul Kiel has more on this race over at TPMMuckraker.

LA-02: The runoff election between two Democrats, Rep. William Jeffereson and Karen Carter, will occur on Dec. 9.

NC-08: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes' lead over Dem Larry Kissell narrowed to 400 votes Friday after six counties reported official election results. Four more counties still need to report their official results. The Hayes campaign has petitioned for the majority of provisional ballots to be thrown out.

NM-01: Republicans are again claiming victory for Rep. Heather Wilson as the final tally is expected to be finished Friday afternoon.

OH-02: Local boards of elections will begin counting more than 8,200 provisional ballots on Monday. Democrats are complaining that confusion of voter ID laws will cause many votes to not be counted.

OH-15: The final count will be delayed until Nov. 27 because of new rules for counting provisional ballots. About 19,500 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in the district. GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce currently leads Dem Mary Jo Kilroy by 3,536 votes.

TX-23: The runoff election between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and Dem Ciro Rodriguez has not been officially scheduled yet, but will occur no sooner than Dec. 12.

WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner has officially decided against seeking a recount solidifying GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin's victory.

For a complete look at all the results of the midterms, check out TPM's Election Central Scoreboard here.

The Latest On The Last Up-For-Grabs House Races: No One's Conceding

The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided — and the latest is that no one has conceded their races since late last week. A full rundown of where the outstanding races stand right now after the jump.

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10 House Races Still Undecided

The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided. Here's where they are now:


Dem-Leaning:

CT-02: Dem challenger Joe Courtney has declared victory with an 167-vote edge, but the miniscule margin automatically triggers a recount. The 167-vote margin includes absentee and military ballots, but not provisional ballots, which need to be verified before being counted. The recount must be completed by midnight next Wednesday.

GA-12: Incumbent Dem John Barrow leads by less than 1,000 votes, with a recount being likely. Barrow has declared victory. If Dems hold this seat, they will have completely shut out the GOP on House, Senate and governorship pick-ups.

Republican-Leaning:

FL-13: The race for Katherine Harris's open seat is potentially going to the courts. Dem Christine Jennings trails by less than 400 votes, with reports of voting-machine problems.

NC-08: Down by 346 votes, Dem Larry Kissell is calling for a recount in his race against GOP Rep. Robin Hayes, who has already declared victory. Provisional ballots won't be counted until Nov. 17, and the official result will not be certified until Nov. 28. In North Carolina, recounts have traditionally favored the candidate who leads going in.

NM-02: GOP Rep. Heather Wilson leads by 1,395 votes, with provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted.

OH-02: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt has declared victory, but Dem Victoria Wulsin is waiting for all provisional ballots to be counted before conceding. Though a Wulsin victory is still a possibility, she seems to be facing a statistical uphill battle.

OH-15: With a lead of 2,835 votes GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has declared victory, but Dem opponent Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede until some 20,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots are tallied, a sum which she feels could tilt the election towards her. Pryce has also announced she will not seek re-election for Chair of the House Republican Conference if she wins.

WA-08: GOP Rep. David Reichert holds a two-point lead over Dem Darcy Burner with three-fifths of the district's ballots now counted. If the final vote count ends with the candidates a half a percentage point or less apart, state law requires a recount.

WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner, trailing Rep. Barbara Cubin by 970 votes, might request a recount after canvassing is completed. However, his current deficit is a few dozen votes larger than the margin that would provide for a state-paid recount. Cubin has declared victory.

Runoff:

TX-23: GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla fell short of 50 percent, and faces a runoff with former Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez

13 House Races Yet To Be Officially Decided

Though the Democrats have conclusively gained control of the House with a pick up of at least 27 seats, 13 races have yet to be officially called by at least two major news sources. Here's why:

Update: CNN and NBC have both called GA-08 for Dem Rep. Jim Marshall and PA-06 for GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach.

Update 2: In PA-08, GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick concedes.

* CT-02: Democrat Joe Courtney leads, but still too close to call, waiting for a recount. A Courtney victory would be another Dem pick up.

* FL-13: GOPer Vern Buchanan declared victory in this race to succeed GOP Rep. Katherine Harris, but Dem Christine Jennings won't concede until a recount, which won't be completed until Nov. 18. Voting problems are suspected to have occurred in the district.

* GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall leads GOPer Mac Collins by 2,048 votes — outside the 1% recount zone — but the race won't be certified until Friday. Called for Marshall.

* GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow declared victory, but it has not been confirmed by GA election officials due to server problems in one county.

* NC-08: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes declared victory, but a recount is expected as he only leads Dem Larry Kissell by 468 votes. A Kissell victory would be a surprise pick up for the Democrats.

* NM-01: No winner declared in this close race where provisional and absentee ballots are still waiting to be counted. A victory by Patricia Madrid would be another pick up for the Dems.

* OH-02: Dem Victoria Wulsin has refused to concede, but GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt leads by slim margin.

* OH-15: Fox News called it for GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce, but Dem Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede, waiting for absentee ballots to be counted.

* PA-06: The Philadelphia Inquirer has called it for GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach, but no other official source has followed suit. Called for Gerlach.

* PA-08: Dem Patrick Murphy declared victory, but GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick refuses to concede. A Murphy victory would be another Dem pick up. Fitzpatrick concedes.

* TX-23: There will be a run-off election between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and Dem Ciro Rodriguez because Bonilla failed to win more than 50% of the vote.

* WA-08: GOP Rep. David Reichert leads Dem Darcy Burner, but more than 10,000 absentee ballots still need to be counted.

* WY-AL: Race between GOP Rep. Barbar Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner is too close to call and a recount is expected. A Trauner victory would be another Dem pick up.

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