WV-Pres

Election Central Sunday Roundup

McCain Meets With Billy And Franklin Graham
John McCain met today with Billy Graham and his son Franklin, himself an influential Christian, in an opportunity to reach out to Christian conservatives who have tended to mistrust him over the years. Fun fact: In 2003, Franklin Graham looked forward to the Iraq War as an opportunity to spread Christianity in the Middle East.

Obama And McCain Camps Fight Over Immigration
The weekend has turned into a mini-slugfest between the two presidential campaigns over immigration. Obama used his speech yesterday at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in Washington to attack McCain for backing away from his immigration reform proposals. This was then followed by the McCain camp blasting out e-mails blaming Obama for undermining the 2007 reform -- and the Obama camp then blasting out a 2006 letter from McCain, thanking Obama for his help on the issue.

Poll: McCain Ahead But Under 50% In Home State
A new Rasmussen poll of Arizona gives John McCain the lead in his home state -- but he is unable to get over 50%, a sign that he may end up having to take time to campaign here when he could be in other states. The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Holbrooke To Raise Money For Obama in London
Former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke -- a top foreign-policy man in Bill Clinton's administration who supported HIllary during the primaries -- will be holding a fundraiser in London on July 8, for Americans abroad supporting Barack Obama. The ticket price: $2,500.

WaPo: Nation's Socio-Economic Political Geography Shifting
An article in today's Washington Post examines the shifts in political demographics. "In 1976, Republican Gerald R. Ford won 10 of the 12 states with the highest per-capita income but lost the election; in 2004, John F. Kerry did the same for the Democrats," the paper observes. The two high-income states won by the GOP in 2004 were Colorado and Virginia -- which are today at the top of Barack Obama's target list.

NYT: Internet Freelancers Changing Political Dialogue
The New York Times this morning profiles the effect that the Internet has had on political discourse: "This year, the development of cheap new editing programs and fast video distribution through sites like YouTube has broken down the barriers, empowering a new generation of largely unregulated political warriors who can affect the campaign dialogue faster and with more impact than the traditional opposition research shops."

Sen. Robert Byrd Endorses Obama

Barack Obama has just received a Senate endorsement with layer upon layer of symbolism: Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), who called Obama "a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian," who "has my full faith and support."

The endorsement comes less than a week after Obama lost the West Virginia primary by a landslide, with many observers seeing race as a factor -- thus making the endorsement by Byrd, a former member of the Ku Klux Klan, all the more potent if the Obama campaign is to argue that they can reach out to white Appalachian voters.

As Ben Smith notes, the Byrd endorsement "is a note of reconciliation that underscores Obama's message."


News Orgs Instantly Project Big Win For Hillary In West Virginia

As expected, the news networks all called West Virginia for Hillary Clinton as soon as the polls closed -- meaning her win is likely to be by a very wide margin.

It's unclear how much this will change the fundamental delegate math. After all, the state only has 28 pledged delegates in total. That said, the Clinton campaign will likely use this as an opportunity to change the perceptions surrounding Obama's electability, and as a tool in their effort to sway the remaining super-delegates and generate a media narrative of momentum.

Clinton Camp: Obama Shouldn't Get Away With Writing Off West Virginia Loss

With Hillary Clinton simultaneously expected to win big today in West Virginia but lose overall for the nomination, the campaign has sent out a memo insisting that Barack Obama shouldn't be allowed to set low expectations here.

"Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy."

Full memo after the jump.

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Obama Expected To Lose Big In Today's West Virginia Primary

Although Barack Obama is now widely expected to be the Democratic nominee, the campaign is in for a bit of embarrassment tonight in what is likely to be a very bad showing in the West Virginia primary -- indeed, if the polls are accurate, he'll be lucky to get more than 30%:

Clinton 60%, Obama 24% (Suffolk, May 11)

Clinton 66%, Obama 23% (ARG, May 9)

Clinton 56%, Obama 27% (Rasmussen, May 5)

Expect the Clinton campaign to use tonight's result as an argument against Obama's electability, and as evidence that Hillary can reach out to rural working-class voters where Obama can't.

The polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Obama Hits McCain For Failing To Support Webb's GI Bill

Barack Obama is giving a speech right now on veterans' issues in West Virginia in which he hits John McCain for failing to back Jim Webb's 21st Century version of the GI bill -- a measure that would cover the full cost for veterans to attend a state university.

In the speech, Obama makes a passing reference to Hillary, conceding he'll likely lose West Virginia to her, then pivots to a general election argument, saying that he "couldn't disagree more" with McCain's refusal to support Webb's measure.

Obama proposes to remake the Veterans Administration for the 21st Century and evokes his grandfather's World War II Service. Perhaps most interesting is his description of the maltreatment of returning Vietnam War veterans as "one of the saddest episodes in our history" -- an olive-branch to the right that's in keeping with his larger claim that he's a conciliator and bridge-builder.

Full text of the speech after the jump.

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Poll: Obama Losing West Virginia Primary By More Than Two To One

Although Barack Obama is now widely expected to win the Democratic nomination, a new Suffolk University poll shows him on the verge of a landslide loss in tomorrow's West Virginia primary:

Clinton 60%
Obama 24%

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November."

Big Pro-Hillary Third-Party Group Won't Be Funding Ads In West Virginia

I'm told reliably that the American Leadership Project -- the big third-party group funded by Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- will not be funding any ads on her behalf in West Virginia.

The West Virginia contest this coming Tuesday will obviously be an easy win for Hillary. Still, keep in mind that she needs to run up her margin of victory as high as possible, so any third-party spending on her behalf would be helpful.

So it's not hard to divine the significance of the fact that ALP -- one of the biggest-spending outside groups in her corner -- isn't putting any cash into the state.

Hillary Holding A Public Event Today, After All

The Clinton campaign may be hurrying to quash any talk from last night that they're about to shut down.

After the media reported last night that Hillary wouldn't be having any public events today -- often a sign that a losing campaign is about to quit -- the campaign sent out a new schedule this morning with a "Solutions for the American Economy" event in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.

Obama Up On The Air In West Virginia -- And Everywhere Else, Too

The Obama campaign is clearly determined to use their financial advantage over Hillary Clinton by flooding the airwaves in remaining states well in advance of their votes.

Obama has this new ad in West Virginia, in which he promises to get to work on lowering gas prices and creating an overall better energy policy:

The one poll out so far in this particular state showed Obama losing by a 2-1 margin. As such, he needs to seriously narrow the gap in time for the May 13 primary, assuming the race is still going after the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina.

Separately, the Obama campaign confirms to us that they are going up on the air in all the remaining states, as first reported by The Page.

Rasmussen: Hillary Ahead Two To One In West Virginia Primary

A new Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton is way, way ahead in the West Virginia primary, with Hillary at 55% to Obama's 27%. The poll further shows that 35% of Clinton supporters say they'd be not at all likely to vote for Obama if he's the nominee.

The West Virginia primary will take place May 13, a week after the North Carolina and Indiana contests in which Obama is currently favored. The good news for Hillary is that she's got a big lead, but the bad news is that only 28 delegates will be at stake — so even a huge win probably wouldn't make for all that much of a pledged-delegate gain.

Sen. Jay Rockefeller Endorses Obama

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has announced today his endorsement of Barack Obama.

Obama now has the endorsements of 12 fellow Senators by our count, closing in on Hillary Clinton's 13 Senate supporters.

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