WV-Pres

McCain Campaign Now Advertising In West Virginia

The McCain campaign is up with two radio ads in West Virginia, a state that went for George W. Bush by 13 points in 2004, according to an employee at one of the state's major news stations.

One ad attacks Obama for Joe Biden's recent "clean coal" remarks, and the other hits Obama over his "bitter" comments.

Previously, on the GOP side, only the RNC was spending money on ads in West Virginia. That the McCain camp is now spending on ads in the state is yet another sign that the broadening map is putting McCain on defense in multiple states that went for Bush last time, sometimes by significant margins, and forcing him to spend money in them with time running out.

The employee, who's with WCHS in Charleston, tells us that McCain is running this spot on the station geared specifically to West Virginia that attacks Obama on coal, charging that while clean coal means "thousands of jobs" for West Virginians, it's opposed by "Obama, Biden, and their liberal allies":

The WCHS employee also confirms that the West Virginia station is running another McCain ad that stars Hank Williams, Jr., hitting Obama over the "bitter" line, a spot that had only been previously heard in Montana.

"When Barack Obama said folks like you and me were bitter, and clinging to religion, I knew he just doesn't understand small town America," the ad says. "We love our God, and we love our guns, 'specially handed down from our grandfathers. And we resent it when liberals like Obama question our way of life. Don't be bitter, vote McCain."

Polls: Obama Leading In Many Bush States

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.


Union Mail Blitz Hits McCain -- In Deep Red West Virginia

The AFL-CIO tries to broaden the map for Obama, dropping a big blitz of mail attacking McCain and Bush on the economy in West Virginia, a state that went for Bush over Kerry in 2004 by double digits.

Click to enlarge:

McCain doesn't appear to be biting on such stuff yet, though: He has cut a radio ad specifically geared for the state, but for now it doesn't appear to be running.

McCain Cuts Ad Attacking Obama That's Geared To ... West Virginia?

Is the McCain campaign worried about West Virginia, a state that Obama is making a play for but that most experts assumed was solidly in the GOP column?

A reader points out to us that McCain appears to have cut a paid radio ad, and posted it on the McCain campaign's YouTube page, that's specifically geared to run in that state:

The spot appears to be a remake of an earlier spot geared to run in other states that the McCain campaign has been advertising in.

"Clean coal is important to America -- and to West Virginia," the new spot says. "For West Virginians coal means thousands of jobs...But Obama, Biden, and their liberal allies oppose clean coal."

It's unclear if the West Virginia ad is actually running. But the spot has clearly been created for a West Virginia audience, suggesting that if it isn't running, it's the can and ready to roll if necessary.

We tried to learn more, but a McCain campaign spokesperson didn't have a comment. We'll bring you more when we get it.

Obama Takes Lead In Multiple Red States

A new round of CNN polls in five red states has some very good news for Barack Obama: He's leading in four out of the five, with a huge lead in Virginia.

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was up 51%-47%.

North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, it was a 49%-49% tie.

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama was ahead 50%-47%.

Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. This is basically unchanged from Obama's 53%-43% lead a week ago.

West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain was only up 50%-46%, so this is the one sliver of good news for him in here.

All five of these states voted twice for George W. Bush, and the four where Obama is ahead add up to 53 electoral votes. John McCain pretty much needs to hold on to all 53 of them, or else it will be exceedingly difficult for him to pull off a victory.

Election Central Sunday Roundup

DNC Raises Nearly $50 Million In September
The DNC announced this morning that they raised $49.9 million in September, and had $27.4 million cash on hand at the end of the month. Together with the Obama campaign's haul of more than $150 million, the combined Democratic fundraising total for September was an astonishing $200 million, far ahead of the RNC's $66 million and the McCain campaign's $85 million in one-time federal grant money.

Obama In North Carolina, Biden In Washington State
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 1:30 p.m. ET in Fayetteville, Norah Carolina. Joe Biden is holding a rally at 5 p.m. ET in Tacoma, Washington.

McCain In Ohio, Palin In New Mexico
John McCain is holding a rally at 1 p.m. ET in Westerville, Ohio, and a rally at 4:15 p.m. ET in Toledo, Ohio. Sarah Palin is holding a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico. Cindy McCain is holding a 3 p.m. ET rally in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Powell's Support Of Obama Not A Surprise
During his appearance this morning on Fox News Sunday, John McCain reacted to Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama: "Well, I've always admired and respected General Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise." McCain added that he's glad to have the support of four former Secretaries of State -- Kissinger, Baker, Eagleburger and Haig -- and he continues to respect and admire Powell.

McCain: Obama's Fundraising Could Lead To Scandal
Also during his appearance on Fox News Sunday, McCain responded to Barack Obama's record monthly fundraising haul. "So what's going to happen?" McCain said. "The dam is broken. We're now going to see huge amounts of money coming into political campaigns, and we know history tells us that always leads to scandal." McCain added that we'll eventually have to pass legislation to deal with the problems created by Obama's small-donor fundraising model.

Polls: Obama Up In Wisconsin, McCain Ahead In West Virginia, Tight Race In Ohio.
A new round of Mason-Dixon polls gives Barack Obama a big lead of 51%-39% in Wisconsin, and McCain a 47%-41% lead in West Virginia. Meanwhile, McCain has 46%-45% edge in Ohio. All three polls have a ±4% margin of error.

Obama Has Campaigned More Than McCain In "Real Virginia"
CNN took a look at the candidates' travel schedules, and found something interesting in light of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer's comments about "Real Virginia": In the battle for this state's 13 electoral votes, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have made more campaign appearance outside of Northern Virginia than John McCain and Sarah Palin have.

Election Central Sunday Roundup

McCain Meets With Billy And Franklin Graham
John McCain met today with Billy Graham and his son Franklin, himself an influential Christian, in an opportunity to reach out to Christian conservatives who have tended to mistrust him over the years. Fun fact: In 2003, Franklin Graham looked forward to the Iraq War as an opportunity to spread Christianity in the Middle East.

Obama And McCain Camps Fight Over Immigration
The weekend has turned into a mini-slugfest between the two presidential campaigns over immigration. Obama used his speech yesterday at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in Washington to attack McCain for backing away from his immigration reform proposals. This was then followed by the McCain camp blasting out e-mails blaming Obama for undermining the 2007 reform -- and the Obama camp then blasting out a 2006 letter from McCain, thanking Obama for his help on the issue.

Poll: McCain Ahead But Under 50% In Home State
A new Rasmussen poll of Arizona gives John McCain the lead in his home state -- but he is unable to get over 50%, a sign that he may end up having to take time to campaign here when he could be in other states. The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Holbrooke To Raise Money For Obama in London
Former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke -- a top foreign-policy man in Bill Clinton's administration who supported HIllary during the primaries -- will be holding a fundraiser in London on July 8, for Americans abroad supporting Barack Obama. The ticket price: $2,500.

WaPo: Nation's Socio-Economic Political Geography Shifting
An article in today's Washington Post examines the shifts in political demographics. "In 1976, Republican Gerald R. Ford won 10 of the 12 states with the highest per-capita income but lost the election; in 2004, John F. Kerry did the same for the Democrats," the paper observes. The two high-income states won by the GOP in 2004 were Colorado and Virginia -- which are today at the top of Barack Obama's target list.

NYT: Internet Freelancers Changing Political Dialogue
The New York Times this morning profiles the effect that the Internet has had on political discourse: "This year, the development of cheap new editing programs and fast video distribution through sites like YouTube has broken down the barriers, empowering a new generation of largely unregulated political warriors who can affect the campaign dialogue faster and with more impact than the traditional opposition research shops."

Sen. Robert Byrd Endorses Obama

Barack Obama has just received a Senate endorsement with layer upon layer of symbolism: Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), who called Obama "a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian," who "has my full faith and support."

The endorsement comes less than a week after Obama lost the West Virginia primary by a landslide, with many observers seeing race as a factor -- thus making the endorsement by Byrd, a former member of the Ku Klux Klan, all the more potent if the Obama campaign is to argue that they can reach out to white Appalachian voters.

As Ben Smith notes, the Byrd endorsement "is a note of reconciliation that underscores Obama's message."

News Orgs Instantly Project Big Win For Hillary In West Virginia

As expected, the news networks all called West Virginia for Hillary Clinton as soon as the polls closed -- meaning her win is likely to be by a very wide margin.

It's unclear how much this will change the fundamental delegate math. After all, the state only has 28 pledged delegates in total. That said, the Clinton campaign will likely use this as an opportunity to change the perceptions surrounding Obama's electability, and as a tool in their effort to sway the remaining super-delegates and generate a media narrative of momentum.

Clinton Camp: Obama Shouldn't Get Away With Writing Off West Virginia Loss

With Hillary Clinton simultaneously expected to win big today in West Virginia but lose overall for the nomination, the campaign has sent out a memo insisting that Barack Obama shouldn't be allowed to set low expectations here.

"Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy."

Full memo after the jump.

Read more »

Obama Expected To Lose Big In Today's West Virginia Primary

Although Barack Obama is now widely expected to be the Democratic nominee, the campaign is in for a bit of embarrassment tonight in what is likely to be a very bad showing in the West Virginia primary -- indeed, if the polls are accurate, he'll be lucky to get more than 30%:

Clinton 60%, Obama 24% (Suffolk, May 11)

Clinton 66%, Obama 23% (ARG, May 9)

Clinton 56%, Obama 27% (Rasmussen, May 5)

Expect the Clinton campaign to use tonight's result as an argument against Obama's electability, and as evidence that Hillary can reach out to rural working-class voters where Obama can't.

The polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Obama Hits McCain For Failing To Support Webb's GI Bill

Barack Obama is giving a speech right now on veterans' issues in West Virginia in which he hits John McCain for failing to back Jim Webb's 21st Century version of the GI bill -- a measure that would cover the full cost for veterans to attend a state university.

In the speech, Obama makes a passing reference to Hillary, conceding he'll likely lose West Virginia to her, then pivots to a general election argument, saying that he "couldn't disagree more" with McCain's refusal to support Webb's measure.

Obama proposes to remake the Veterans Administration for the 21st Century and evokes his grandfather's World War II Service. Perhaps most interesting is his description of the maltreatment of returning Vietnam War veterans as "one of the saddest episodes in our history" -- an olive-branch to the right that's in keeping with his larger claim that he's a conciliator and bridge-builder.

Full text of the speech after the jump.

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Poll: Obama Losing West Virginia Primary By More Than Two To One

Although Barack Obama is now widely expected to win the Democratic nomination, a new Suffolk University poll shows him on the verge of a landslide loss in tomorrow's West Virginia primary:

Clinton 60%
Obama 24%

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November."

Big Pro-Hillary Third-Party Group Won't Be Funding Ads In West Virginia

I'm told reliably that the American Leadership Project -- the big third-party group funded by Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- will not be funding any ads on her behalf in West Virginia.

The West Virginia contest this coming Tuesday will obviously be an easy win for Hillary. Still, keep in mind that she needs to run up her margin of victory as high as possible, so any third-party spending on her behalf would be helpful.

So it's not hard to divine the significance of the fact that ALP -- one of the biggest-spending outside groups in her corner -- isn't putting any cash into the state.

Hillary Holding A Public Event Today, After All

The Clinton campaign may be hurrying to quash any talk from last night that they're about to shut down.

After the media reported last night that Hillary wouldn't be having any public events today -- often a sign that a losing campaign is about to quit -- the campaign sent out a new schedule this morning with a "Solutions for the American Economy" event in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.

Obama Up On The Air In West Virginia -- And Everywhere Else, Too

The Obama campaign is clearly determined to use their financial advantage over Hillary Clinton by flooding the airwaves in remaining states well in advance of their votes.

Obama has this new ad in West Virginia, in which he promises to get to work on lowering gas prices and creating an overall better energy policy:

The one poll out so far in this particular state showed Obama losing by a 2-1 margin. As such, he needs to seriously narrow the gap in time for the May 13 primary, assuming the race is still going after the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina.

Separately, the Obama campaign confirms to us that they are going up on the air in all the remaining states, as first reported by The Page.

Rasmussen: Hillary Ahead Two To One In West Virginia Primary

A new Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton is way, way ahead in the West Virginia primary, with Hillary at 55% to Obama's 27%. The poll further shows that 35% of Clinton supporters say they'd be not at all likely to vote for Obama if he's the nominee.

The West Virginia primary will take place May 13, a week after the North Carolina and Indiana contests in which Obama is currently favored. The good news for Hillary is that she's got a big lead, but the bad news is that only 28 delegates will be at stake — so even a huge win probably wouldn't make for all that much of a pledged-delegate gain.

Sen. Jay Rockefeller Endorses Obama

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has announced today his endorsement of Barack Obama.

Obama now has the endorsements of 12 fellow Senators by our count, closing in on Hillary Clinton's 13 Senate supporters.

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