Whoa. We've just obtained a McCain campaign robo-slime call that slams Dems as "dangerously weak on crime" and hits Barack Obama and his "liberal allies" for having a "disturbing history of coddling criminals."

Worse, the call even insinuates that Obama isn't inclined to protect your kids -- in fact, the call directly alleges that Obama has voted against "protecting children from danger."

A reader in Wisconsin sends in the audio, and a second reader in Indiana reports hearing the call:

Click To Play

Script:

Hello, I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC, because Democrats are dangerously weak on crime. Barack Obama has voted against tougher penalties for street gangs, drug-related crimes, and protecting children from danger. Barack Obama and his liberal allies have a disturbing history of coddling criminals. so we can't trust their judgment to keep our families safe. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558-5591. Thank you, bye

It's unclear what the bit about not protecting kids is a reference to.

This is the third call we've documented today: There was one starring Rudy Giuliani, who suggested that Obama opposes jailing murderers and rapists. And there was a second hitting Obama over the "bitter" comments.

In other words, another huge wave of McCain robo-slime has been unleashed.

DNC Raises Nearly $50 Million In September
The DNC announced this morning that they raised $49.9 million in September, and had $27.4 million cash on hand at the end of the month. Together with the Obama campaign's haul of more than $150 million, the combined Democratic fundraising total for September was an astonishing $200 million, far ahead of the RNC's $66 million and the McCain campaign's $85 million in one-time federal grant money.

Obama In North Carolina, Biden In Washington State
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 1:30 p.m. ET in Fayetteville, Norah Carolina. Joe Biden is holding a rally at 5 p.m. ET in Tacoma, Washington.

McCain In Ohio, Palin In New Mexico
John McCain is holding a rally at 1 p.m. ET in Westerville, Ohio, and a rally at 4:15 p.m. ET in Toledo, Ohio. Sarah Palin is holding a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico. Cindy McCain is holding a 3 p.m. ET rally in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Powell's Support Of Obama Not A Surprise
During his appearance this morning on Fox News Sunday, John McCain reacted to Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama: "Well, I've always admired and respected General Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise." McCain added that he's glad to have the support of four former Secretaries of State -- Kissinger, Baker, Eagleburger and Haig -- and he continues to respect and admire Powell.

McCain: Obama's Fundraising Could Lead To Scandal
Also during his appearance on Fox News Sunday, McCain responded to Barack Obama's record monthly fundraising haul. "So what's going to happen?" McCain said. "The dam is broken. We're now going to see huge amounts of money coming into political campaigns, and we know history tells us that always leads to scandal." McCain added that we'll eventually have to pass legislation to deal with the problems created by Obama's small-donor fundraising model.

Polls: Obama Up In Wisconsin, McCain Ahead In West Virginia, Tight Race In Ohio.
A new round of Mason-Dixon polls gives Barack Obama a big lead of 51%-39% in Wisconsin, and McCain a 47%-41% lead in West Virginia. Meanwhile, McCain has 46%-45% edge in Ohio. All three polls have a ±4% margin of error.

Obama Has Campaigned More Than McCain In "Real Virginia"
CNN took a look at the candidates' travel schedules, and found something interesting in light of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer's comments about "Real Virginia": In the battle for this state's 13 electoral votes, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have made more campaign appearance outside of Northern Virginia than John McCain and Sarah Palin have.

Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Four Battleground States
A new set of polls from Quinnipiac gives Barack Obama very strong leads in four key swing states: He's up 52%-43% in Colorado, 54%-38% in Michigan, 51%-40% in Minnesota, and 54%-37% in Wisconsin. Three of these four states have gone Democratic in the past two elections -- though by close margins -- and Colorado would represent a pick-up in the Dem column away from the GOP.

McCain To Unveil New Economic Proposals Today
John McCain will use his rally today in Pennsylvania as a platform to unveil new proposals on the economy, billed as his "Pension And Family Security Plan," an issue area that has in large part contributed to Barack Obama's lead in the polls. The plan will combine capital-gains tax cuts with a proposal to have the government buy out variable-rate mortgages and replace them with more manageable fixed-rate loans.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden Swinging Through Ohio
Barack Obama has no public events today, probably due to final preparations for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is touring Ohio today, with multiple events: A 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Warren, a 4 p.m. ET rally in St. Clairsville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Marietta.

McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are both campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a large swing state that has been slipping away from them in the polls. McCain is holding an 11:30 a.m. rally in Blue Bell, and Palin has a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton.

RNC Spending More And More Money On Ads
The Republican National Committee has shelled out $5 million to run two of their TV ads against Barack Obama -- one that attacks him as a Chicago machine politician, and the other that tags him as a big spender. The RNC has raised roughly $50 million more than the DNC, which has essentially made up for Barack Obama's cash advantage over John McCain's individual campaign committee.

McCain Camp Caught Lying About Crowd Sizes Again
The McCain campaign has again been caught puffing up the number of people who attend their rallies. The campaign claimed that 25,000 people attended John McCain's Virginia Beach rally -- but the venue only holds 16,000, and the fire marshall estimated that only 12,000 people were in attendance.

Obama campaign surrogates are out there in the states today pushing the campaign's attack line over McCain-Palin's unhinged crowds very hard, with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland blasting the McCain team at a rally today, and vouching for Obama as a "strong Christian man" who poses no threat to gun rights.

"Why do I share those two things with you this morning?" Strickland added. "Because the McCain-Palin campaign, and unfortunately some of their followers, would want you to be afraid of Barack Obama," he said. "They want you to believe that he is untested and unknown, and they are doing it my friends for one reason, they want to hold onto the power they have and to the positions that they want."

Meanwhile, the atmosphere at McCain events seems to be getting worse and worse. The Huffington Post points out that a woman in the crowd at a rally today in Wisconsin began yelling "Traitor!" -- and TV footage appears to show John and Cindy McCain looking in her direction and smiling.

Late Update: Here's the video of the woman yelling at the McCain rally:

McCain Ad: "We All Know The Truth" About Obama's Extreme Liberalism
The new post-debate McCain ad doesn't use any debate footage, but is instead a more general spot going after Obama for being a liberal -- and for having something to hide:

"Mr. Obama, we all know the truth," the announcer says sternly.

New Obama Ad: McCain's Health Plan Giveth -- Then Taketh Away
The Obama campaign has a new ad using footage from the debate, continuing their push against John McCain's health-care plan -- something they've clearly identified as an effective wedge issue in the battle for working-class voters:

"He says that he's going to give you a $5,000 tax credit," Obama says. "What he doesn't tell you is that he's going to tax your employer based health care benefits, for the first time ever. So what one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away."

Barack Obama In Indiana, Michelle In New Hampshire, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Indiana, with a rally set to begin at 12:15 p.m. ET. Michelle Obama is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in Keene, New Hampshire. Joe Biden is back on the campaign trail today, with an 8:30 a.m. ET community event in Tampa, Florida, and a 5:30 p.m. ET community event in Fort Myers, Florida.

GOP Ticket In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be holding a rally today in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Then they're off to Strongsville, Ohio, for another joint rally at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Poll: McCain Narrowly Ahead In North Carolina
The new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina gives John McCain a 49%-46% lead here, within the ±4% margin of error. On the one hand, this is better for McCain than other recent polls showing Barack Obama taking the lead in this Southern state -- but it's not as good as SurveyUSA poll from a month ago, which gave him a 20-point lead.

Polls: Obama Up Ten Points In Wisconsin
Two new polls are giving Barack Obama ten-point leads in Wisconsin, a state that only just barely voted for Al Gore and John Kerry. From SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%. And from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.

New York Times Condemns McCain
The New York Times has a new editorial today lambasting what has become of the McCain campaign. "They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record -- into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia," the Times says. "Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison."

Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.

Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:

"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."

McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:

"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."

Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.

Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.

Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.

Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.

Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.

Planned Parenthood is going up with an absolutely brutal new ad hammering the policy of Wasilla, Alaska of charging rape victims for gathering evidence when Palin was mayor:

"Under Mayor Sarah Palin, women like Gretchen were forced to pay up to $1,200 for the emergency exams used to prosecute their attackers," the announcer says, after a heartbreaking testimonial from a woman talking about her own experience of being raped. "In the Senate, John McCain voted against legislation to protect women from these same heartless policies."

The ad will run in Missouri, Wisconsin, and the Northern Virginia media market.

(Via First Read)

MoveOn Ad Blames McCain's "Friends" For Economic Crisis
In a sign that this campaign is certainly not being put on hold as John McCain would like, MoveOn has this funny new one-minute ad on national cable, casting the blame for the market crisis squarely on John McCain and those folks he'd call "my friends" for the economic crisis -- folks like Phil Gramm, Rick Davis and George W. Bush:

"Main St. giving Wall St. $700 billion and getting nothing in return -- it's outrageous!" the announcer says. "Americans shouldn't have to foot the bill for a mistake that John McCain and his friends made."

Another Poll Gives Obama Huge Lead On The Economy
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll puts in perspective just how precarious the economic situation is for John McCain, with Barack Obama being trusted more on the economy by a 46%-32% margin. Overall, Obama leads 49%-45% in the horse race, with a ±3% margin of error -- meaning it is quite likely that the economy is what is making the difference and putting Obama ahead at this point.

Obama And McCain To Address Clinton Global Initiative
Both Barack Obama and John McCain will be addressing the Clinton Global initiative this morning, Bill Clinton's humanitarian organization, before heading back to Washington for the bipartisan meeting with President Bush to attempt to resolve the financial crisis. McCain is addressing the Initiative in person in New York, while Obama is appearing via satellite from Florida.

Joe Biden Still On The Trail
Joe Biden is in Pennsylvania today, defying the McCain campaign's request that he and Barack Obama stop campaigning. Biden has an event at 10:30 a.m. ET in Greensburg, and another at 2:30 p.m. ET in Wilkes-Barre.

Poll: Obama Edges McCain In North Carolina
In another very bad poll number for John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead in North Carolina, a Republican-leaning Southern state that hasn't voted Dem president since 1976. The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

Poll: Obama Up By Six In Wisconsin
A new Research 2000 poll in Wisconsin gives Barack Obama a healthy lead of 49%-43% in this swing state, with a ±4% margin of error. Wisconsin voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry, but only by extremely narrow margins, and it is perennially on the GOP's target list.

Huckabee Comes Out Against Bailout
In a display of grassroots GOP opposition to the proposed Wall St. bailout, Mike Huckabee has sent out a scathing e-mail to his supporter list, opposing the bailout and the leaders who are pushing it: "Frankly, I'm disappointed and disgusted with my own Republican party as I watch them attempt to strong-arm a bailout of some of America's biggest corporations by asking the taxpayers to suck up the staggering results of the hubris, greed, and arrogance of those who sought to make a quick buck by throwing the dice."

Right-Wing Pastors To Challenge Tax Laws, Endorse Candidates This Sunday
A coalition of right-wing churches is stepping up its challenge to the ban on tax-exempt churches endorsing political candidates, with pastors in 22 states set to give political sermons this Sunday. "I'm going to talk about the un-biblical stands that Barack Obama takes. Nobody who follows the Bible can vote for him," said Rev. Wiley S. Drake of First Southern Baptist Church in Buena Park, California.

New McCain Ad: Dems Don't Know What To Do About The Market
The Mccain campaign has another ad out on the economy, depicting Democrats as clueless on the economy -- and using some very interesting imagery:

Note that the "CEO rip-offs" line is accompanied by a shifty-looking pic of Franklin Raines, whom the McCain camp has accused the Obama campaign -- on scant evidence at best -- of receiving economic advice from. This is then followed by a photo of an innocent-looking middle-aged white woman.

Obama Ad: McCain Protects Companies That Hide Their Assets
Here's a new Obama national cable TV ad hitting John McCain on corporate accountability, hammering him for protecting tax breaks for companies that hide their profits offshore:

"McCain went to Bermuda," the announcer says. "And while he was there pledged to protect tax breaks for American corporations that hide their profits offshore. And grateful insurance company executives and their lobbyists who benefit from the tax scheme, gave McCain $50,000.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama does not have any public events today, probably because he's preparing for the first debate this Friday -- but he's also done a taped interview for the Today Show this morning. Joe Biden has an event as 12 p.m. ET in Woodbridge, Virginia, and he'll be speaking to the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington at 5 p.m. ET.

McCain In Ohio And Michigan
John McCain is campaigning today in Ohio and Michigan, with a stop this morning in Middleburg, Ohio, and another this afternoon in Freeland, Michigan.

Palin Meets The World Leaders
This is Sarah Palin's big day at the U.N., where she'll be meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Polls: Obama Up In Colorado, Three Other Key States
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in four key battleground states. The numbers: Obama is up 49%-45% in Colorado, 48%-44% in Michigan, 47%-45% in Minnesota, and 49%-42% in Wisconsin. The margins of error are all ±2.7%, except in Colorado where it is ±2.6%.

Poll: Obama Ahead In Florida
A new NBC News poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% lead in Florida, within the ±4% margin of error. All the other recent polls have put McCain ahead in this state, but who knows, this might be the start of an uptrend for Obama.

McCain's Transition Head Lobbied For Freddie Mac
Here's yet another lobbyist-related headache for John McCain when it comes to his campaign's attacks on Barack Obama. Bloomberg reports that William Timmons, the lobbyist who McCain has tapped to head up his transition team should he be elected, lobbied for Freddie Mac from 2000 up until the government takeover.

Biden Walks Back Criticism Of Obama Ad
The Obama camp released this statement last night from Joe Biden, retracting his criticism of the campaign's ad that hits John McCain for being a computer-illiterate:

"I was asked about an ad I'd never seen, reacting merely to press reports. As I said right then, I knew there was nothing intentionally personal in the criticism of Senator McCain's views which look backwards not forwards and are out of touch with the new economic challenges we face today. Having now reviewed the ad, it is even more clear to me that given the disgraceful tenor of Senator McCain's ads and their persistent falsehoods, his campaign is in no position to criticize, especially when they continue to distort Barack's votes on an issue as personal as keeping kids safe from sexual predator."

McCain Ad: Obama "Born Of" Corruption
The McCain campaign has this new national TV ad out, accusing Obama of being "born of the corrupt Chicago political machine," connecting him to former fundraiser Tony Rezko:

"With friends like that, Obama is not ready to lead," the announcer says.

NYT: Rick Davis Collected Six-Figure Annual Salaries As Fannie/Freddie Lobbyist
The New York Times reports this morning that in light of John McCain's attacks against Barack Obama for having connections to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, McCain may want to examine his own staffers' backgrounds. It turns out that McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis was paid about $350,000 per year for five years to head up a lobbying organization for those very same mortgage brokers.

Obamas In Wisconsin, Joe Biden Addresses National Guard
Barack Obama is speaking today in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with an event scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, before heading back to Chicago for a fundraiser tonight. Michelle Obama is extensively touring this swing state, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Madison, a 2:45 p.m. ET rally in Wausau, a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in West Allis, and an evening fundraiser in Fox Point. Joe Biden is addressing the National Guard Association convention in Baltimore, Maryland, a speech scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET

McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the day in the big swing state of Pennsylvania. The two of them will hold a town hall event at 10:30 a.m. ET in Scranton, followed by a rally in Media at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Detroit Free Press: McCain Drives A Foreign Car
The local press in Michigan is jumping at Newsweek's report that the McCain's own over a dozen cars, while the Obamas have only one. The newest shoe to drop: Despite McCain's previous statements that he's bought American cars all his life, among the cars he and Cindy own are a Lexus, a Honda and a Volkswagen -- cardinal sins to Michigan voters concerned about he domestic auto industry.

Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Pennsylvania
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Pennsylvania shows a very close race in this large swing state, which went to John Kerry by only two points in 2004. The numbers: Obama 46%, McCain 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.

Obama Pulls Out Of North Dakota
Barack Obama has pulled his staff and advertising presence out of North Dakota, a traditionally-Republican state that he'd been courting for the past several months. Recent polling gave John McCain a good lead here, making it prudent to look at other states instead.

A new round of CNN swing state polls holds encouraging news for Obama: It finds that McCain's waning convention bounce hasn't translated into leads in key states, and indeed, Obama is leading in two key states and has pulled into a tie in Florida.

• In Florida, it's a 48%-48% tie. Most other polls recently have given the lead to McCain here, but this could be evidence of a shift happening.

• In Indiana, McCain has a close but seemingly secure 51%-45% lead, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• In North Carolina, McCain has a bare edge of 48%-47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• In Ohio, we have a rare poll with Obama ahead: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±3% margin of error. The last eight polls before this one have put McCain up. CNN's last poll from two weeks ago also had Obama up by a two-point margin.

• In Wisconsin, which has gone Dem by less than one point in the past two elections, Obama has a 50%-47% lead, with a ±3% margin of error.

Four of these five states voted twice for President Bush, and have generally been GOP-leaning -- but McCain currently only has any kind of halfway-decent lead in one of them, according to these polls. McCain's convention bounce seems to have run out, putting us back where we were before the two conventions: A very close race all across the country.

To our knowledge the Obama campaign didn't release it to the national press, but Team Obama is airing a new radio spot in Wisconsin -- the home of Harley-Davidson -- attacking John McCain over his recent quip at a biker rally that he'd much rather listen to the "roar of 50,000 Harleys" than the cheering of 200,000 Berliners.

The spot quotes McCain's joke, then calls him a phony for opposing a requirement that the government buy American-made motorbikes. "But when it comes to his record," the announcer says, "American-made motorcycles like Harleys don't matter to John McCain."

Click To Play

The standard Dem effort to turn GOP patriotism attacks on their head by painting Republican trade policies as anti-American worker has generally met with mixed success. But with the economy topping the list of voter concerns, particularly in industrial swing states, it's possible that such attacks will land on more fertile ground this time around. Full script after the jump.

Read more »

Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.

Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:

Colorado
McCain (R) 46% (+2)
Obama (D) 44% (-5)

Michigan
Obama (D) 46% (-2)
McCain (R) 42% (+0)

Minnesota
Obama (D) 46% (-8)
McCain (R) 44% (+7)

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 50% (-1)
McCain (R) 39% (+0)

From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."

New McCain Ad Makes Appeal To Hispanic Voters
John McCain has a new ad set to air in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, in which the candidate makes a direct appeal for Hispanic voters who have largely been alienated by the Republican Party's anti-immigrant wing. Note that the ad uses footage of McCain at a June 2007 debate, with McCain's defense of immigrants' patriotism in front of none other than Tom Tancredo:

Obama Talking About Energy Today In Ohio
Barack Obama is visiting Dayton, Ohio, where he will be holding a "Secure Energy Future Town Hall." Ohio has proven to be a pivotal swing state delivering Republican victories in recent elections, but Obama has taken a narrow lead in the most recent polls -- and you can bet he'll be working very hard in the coming months to sustain that.

McCain Visiting Wisconsin, Where Obama Is Polling Ahead
John McCain is making a visit today to Wisconsin, an attempt to win over a state that has narrowly voted Democratic in the past two elections. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a 50%-39% lead here, up from a 45%-43% lead a month ago.

Report: Obama Team Vetting Dodd For VP -- And Not Vetting Hillary
Former Hillary Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said on Fox News last night that the Obama campaign is not vetting Hillary for vice president, to the best of his knowledge. Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that Chris Dodd is being vetted.

McCain Hits Obama For Missing Vote That He Missed, Too
Good work on CNN's part for spotting this: John McCain has been criticizing Barack Obama's national security credentials for missing the September 2007 vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. But McCain, who has missed the vast majority of Senate votes since he began running for president, also skipped out on that vote.

Dem Chances Go Up In Red Florida Seat
Rep. Tom Feeney, a former Florida House Speaker who worked to pass legislation in 2000 to award the state's electoral votes to George W. Bush just in case the recounts didn't work out, might be in danger of a seriously-funded challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. The Rothenberg and Cook Reports, plus CQ, have all changed their ratings on this race to "Leans Republican," up from safer ratings for the GOP.

Poll: GOP Sen. Susan Collins Way Ahead Of Dem Opponent
A new poll from Maine by local pollster Pan Atlantic SMS shows two-term Republican Senator Susan Collins having a huge lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen: Collins 56%, Allen 31%. Barack Obama is heavily favored to win Maine's electoral votes, but Collins appears to be safe and getting more than her fair share of ticket-splitters.

The Obama campaign is quickly striking back at the RNC's spot on energy policy, airing an ad of their own that goes after John McCain.

The ad will run in the same four swing states as the RNC's spot -- Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and rebuts the GOP's accusation that Obama doesn't have an energy plan in two ways: Explaining what Obama's policies actually are, and tying John McCain to the unpopular President Bush.

Check it out:

"McCain and Bush support a drilling plan that won't produce a drop of oil for seven years," the announcer says. "McCain will give more tax breaks to big oil. He's voted with Bush 95% of the time."

Looks like the Republican money machine is really gearing up to go after Barack Obama.

The Republican National Committee -- the one arm of the GOP that has consistently out-raised its Democratic counterpart -- is planning to throw its formidable cash advantage into a new round of ads going after Barack Obama, set to air in the swing states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Roll Call reports that the RNC's initial ad campaign will cost $3 million, and go after Obama on "energy security" -- clearly part of McCain's current efforts to rephrase the issue of fuel prices in terms of national security rather than economics. The RNC's ad campaign was first reported by the Politico.

Despite all the talk about Barack Obama's fundraising prowess, it's worth keeping it in some perspective. The most recent numbers up through May showed that the RNC had a $50 million advantage over the DNC, way ahead of Obama's cash lead over McCain -- thus giving the GOP the real advantage in this area for now, unless the June numbers and Obama's decision to opt out of public finance can change things drastically.

Barack Obama is well-positioned to win a set of key swing states, a new round of Quinnipiac polls suggests -- and some of these aren't even close. The numbers:

Colorado
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Margin of error: ±2.7%.

Michigan
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Minnesota
Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 37%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 39%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin all voted narrowly for John Kerry and Al Gore, while Colorado gave its nine electoral votes to George W. Bush twice. So it's definitely a good sign for Obama that he's way ahead in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has decent-sized leads in both Colorado and Michigan.

Barack Obama is in good shape in the swing state of Wisconsin, a new poll from the state university finds. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 37%, well beyond the ±4.5% margin of error.

In a bad sign for John McCain, 66% of respondents said the war in Iraq was not worth righting, and only 24% of Wisconsinites now consider themselves Republicans, compared to 38% Democrats and 29% independents.

A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Barack Obama running stronger than Hillary Clinton for the general election in this battleground state:

Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 43%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 41%

The Clinton campaign will often point to swing states where they have polled better than Obama, such as Pennsylvania. As this poll demonstrates, however, they both have their fair share of better states.

Russ Feingold has now given his support to Barack Obama in a way that practically qualifies as an endorsement in all but name: Feingold divulged that he personally voted for Obama in the Wisconsin primary, and said that he will likely continue to support Obama in his capacity as a super-delegate.

"I really do think that at the gut level, this is a chance to do something special," Feingold said. Feingold had previously declined to publicly endorse before the primary.

Here it is:

The exit polls show that Obama cut deeply into Hillary's core constituencies in racking up his sizable victory in Wisconsin tonight.

Obama made it very close among females, losing to Hillary by the slimmest of margins, 51%-49%.

He won by a sizable margin among middle-aged voters, 53%-46%.

He won by decent margins among voters with an income less than $50,000.

He won by big margins among self described moderates and conservatives.

He won overwhelmingly among people who decided in the last week or the last three days, though Hillary won narrowly among those who decided in the last day.

He won narrowly among members of union households.

Full exits here.

In her speech tonight, Hillary pushed hard on the theme that Obama is all words and she's all action, suggesting that the Hillary campaign is having an awfully tough time figuring out how to derail Obama's eloquence as a force in this campaign.

Hillary:

"Tonight I want to talk to you about the choice you have in this election and why that choice matters. It is about picking a president who relies not just on words but on work, on hard work to get America back to work. That's our goal!"

...and...

"We can't just have speeches, we've got to have solutions, and we need those solutions for America. We've got to get America back in the solutions business. Because while words matter, the best words in the world aren't enough unless you match them with action."

The Hillary camp has been trying various formulations to beat back Obama's clear oratorical superiority as a determining factor in this campaign, but nothing seems to have worked thus far.

Late Update: As commenters note, it's a misnomer to call this a concession speech, since Hillary didn't mention tonight's results in any way (at least until the networks cut away to Obama's victory speech).