VT-Pres

Latest Tally: Hillary May Emerge With Gain Of 10 Delegates

This morning we gave you the latest delegate hard count from NBC, which gave Hillary Clinton a 46-34 delegate edge on the Texas primary, with 46 delegates yet to be allocated. As it turns out, the Texas Secretary of State site has a more up-to-date count based on the totals in the state Senate districts, and Hillary's edge is much closer in their numbers.

With all 126 delegates estimated by the state's site, it's 65 for Hillary to 61 for Obama — a +4 edge for Hillary compared to the ongoing +12 estimate that NBC currently has, assuming the Texas state site's calculations are accurate.

In Rhode Island, Hillary won a 13-8 advantage, while Obama got a 9-6 win in Vermont. NBC currently has Ohio at 73-62 for Hillary, with six delegates left to be assigned. That gives Hillary a net advantage of +17 for the night, without the Texas caucus results factored in. Assuming Obama wins the caucus, this would trim Hillary's lead slightly, potentially leaving her around +10.

Late Update: Using the Ohio Secretary of State's district-by-district numbers, combined with this delegate calculator at BuckeyeStateBlog, Hillary Clinton ends up with 74 delegates to Barack Obama's 65 delegates, with two more delegates up in the air. That would put Hillary at +9 in Ohio, down from NBC's current +11, and +15 overall before the Texas caucus results are known.

Obama Wins Vermont, Networks Say

As expected, all three networks call Vermont for Obama. Preliminary exits say the spread is 62%-37% It's unclear yet, of course, how many of the state's 15 delegates Obama nets.

So now we're seriously underway. Here are the poll closing times for the remaining contests:

* Ohio: 7:30 p.m.

* Texas: 8 p.m.

* Texas caucus begins 8:15 p.m.

* Rhode Island 9 p.m.

We're blogging the results right here. Stay tuned.

Late Update: On MSNBC just now, Obama supporter John Kerry makes a heady prediction:

I'll bet you he wins more delegates as a margin in Vermont than she wins if she wins Ohio or Texas.

Bears watching. Separately, someone needs to tell Kerry that the one thing he shouldn't talk about is Obama's Harvard background, as he did just now. He's not the right messenger for that one...

Late Update: Exit polls here.

Late Update: NBC News allocates eight Vermont delegates for Obama and five for Hillary, with two outstanding.


Obama Radio Ad In Vermont Stars Patrick Leahy

Barack Obama is focusing his efforts for March 4 not only on Texas and Ohio, but also on one of the smaller states voting that day: Vermont. His new radio ad there stars Sen. Patrick Leahy, who endorsed Obama about a month ago and has led much of the state party establishment in backing his candidacy.

"And Sen. Obama was against the Iraq War from Day One," Leahy says, a subtle but pointed critique of Hillary Clinton's "ready on Day One" slogan. "He's got the judgment to lead — he'll bring our troops home."

An mp3 of the ad is available here.

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