Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

McConnell Ad Ties Lunsford To Schumer And New York
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who is facing a tough challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, has this incredible ad out tying Lunsford to the New York liberalism of DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer:

"And this guy wants to put a New Yawk Senadduh in Kentucky," the announcer says, in a hammed-up New York City accent. "Fuggedaboudit."

Gordon Smith: Palin Is A Great Governor For California
Some Republicans have taken to exaggerating Sarah Palin's qualifications, but this is just ridiculous. In a funny verbal slip-up in last night's Senate debate in Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith referred to Sarah Palin as an effective governor for California:

"I've met Sarah Palin once, she's a lovely person," Smith said. "She's a great governor of California, she's a strong executive."

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Mark Warner To Keynote Dem Convention
The Obama campaign has announced that former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is on track to pick up a Senate seat this November, will be the keynote speaker at the convention. This should be seen as another major play for Virginia, by putting a very popular Democratic name there in prime time to advocate for Obama's election.

McCain In Michigan Today
John McCain is campaigning today in Birmingham, Michigan, in a big swing state that hasn't voted Republican since 1988. McCain has a media availability scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET.

Obama Brings In $1.3 Million In Hawaiian Fundraiser
Barack Obama had a good evening last night in Hawaii, with a Honolulu fundraiser taking in $1.3 million. Obama offered this joke about why he's vacationing in Hawaii, a state he's virtually guaranteed to win this November: "It's going to be really embarrassing if we don't pull it out. I think I need to spend two or three days campaigning."

Poll: McCain Leads With Hunters, But Not By Much
A new poll from the Congressional Sportsmen's Foundation finds John McCain ahead of Barack Obama among hunters, but by less of a margin than the Republican should be able to count on. McCain is ahead 45%-31%, compared to to a 27-point lead that George W. Bush had in 2004.

Right-Wingers Oppose Drilling Compromise
The Wall St. Journal reports that some conservative Republicans are coming out against the "Gang Of 10" energy compromise, which increases offshore drilling while simultaneously increasing funding for alternative energy. The Journal notes that drilling could cease to be an effective wedge issue if both parties actually came together and agreed to a compromise plan.

McCain Not Canceling Fundraiser With Ex-Abramoff Partner
The McCain campaign is ignoring calls from good-government groups for him to cancel an upcoming fundraiser with Ralph Reed, the former Jack Abramoff business partner. For his part, Reed is employing some interesting logic to say he isn't actually hosting a fundraiser: "I am just strongly supporting Senator McCain. I'm contributing to him and encouraging others to do so."

In yet another sign that the Republicans will almost certainly lose their open Senate seat in Virginia, retiring GOP Sen. John Warner doesn't appear to be willing to endorse former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who only narrowly won the nomination at this past weekend's state party convention.

"I'm not going to keep answering this question about Gilmore," Warner told The Hill. "I'll get my press office to send you a statement."

Gilmore trails his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Mark Warner -- no relation to John -- by a wide margin in all the polls.

Republicans now have a declared candidate for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (R-VA) — but it might not do them much good. Former Governor Jim Gilmore, who ran for president earlier this year and dropped out due to poor poll numbers and fundraising, has declared his candidacy.

However, the Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the seat. Polling has consistently shown former Governor Mark Warner (D), Gilmore's successor, leading by a wide margin.

A new round of Senate polls from SurveyUSA, commissioned by Roll Call, show the Republicans in serious trouble for the 2008 Senate races.

In Oregon, Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is ahead but under 50% against two Democrats, leading state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 48%-39%, and leading Democratic activist Steve Novick 45%-39%.

In Minnesota, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is statistically tied with both his Democratic opponents, with a one-point 46%-45% lead against Al Franken, and a 44%-44% tie against attorney and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi.

For the open seat in New Mexico, Republican Representatives Steve Pearce and Heath Wilson both trail Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, with Chávez at 48%-43% against Pearce and 48%-44% against Wilson. This is a turnaround from earlier polls that showed Chávez to be a weak Democratic nominee. Dem Congressman Tom Udall, who is also looking at the race, was not polled.

In the open-seat race in Virginia, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner leads former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore 57%-35%, and leads former Senator George Allen — who has not indicated that he would run — by a 52%-42% margin.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen by a 53%-42% margin.

The Republicans' only bright spot is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads Dem Congressman Tom Allen 55%-38%.

Late Update: In another poll result I missed before, Democrats are also ahead in the open-seat race in Colorado, with Dem Congressman Mark Udall leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer 48%-41%.

A new Rasmussen poll in Virginia shows that the state could be close in 2008, with three of the top Republicans holding statistically insignificant leads against Hillary Clinton:

Giuliani (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 43%
Thompson (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Huckabee R) 39%

However, Clinton would have some reason to worry here — her unfavorable rating is a solid 51%.

Meanwhile, former Governor Mark Warner (D) holds a 53%-37% lead over former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) in the open Senate race.

Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) made his intentions clear today about the Senate race, telling reporters that he will not be a candidate. "This is just probably not the right time for me to make any advance and run for the Senate," Davis said.

Davis has not yet said whether he will run for re-election, though an announcement is expected some time after the state legislative elections in November. Davis' wife Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, a state Senator, faces a tough battle from Democratic candidate Chap Petersen.

Former Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the seat for the Democrats.

The Washington Post reports that Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) will not be running for the open Senate seat in 2008, and could potentially announce his intentions as soon as this week. Davis' chances had been hurt by the state party's decision to make their nomination through a convention, rather than a primary, a decision that would heavily favor the more conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore.

The remaining question is whether Davis will seek re-election to his seat representing Fairfax County, which has become a swing or even Democratic-leaning area. Davis' announcement could be delayed until after the state legislative elections in two weeks, in which his Davis' wife is facing a tough race for re-election as a state Senator.

The Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the Senate seat, with former Governor Mark Warner as their candidate.

At a National Press Club breakfast yesterday, Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) sounded very much like he's leaning against a campaign for the Senate, though no final decision will be made until after this November's legislative elections.

"There are other races; this isn't the only shot," said Davis. "You've got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don't go to the Senate, so what?"

Davis had been hurt recently by the state GOP's decision to nominate their candidate by a convention, rather than a primary, not to mention the strong fundraising from former Democratic Governor Mark Warner. If Davis bows out, former Governor Jim Gilmore would be almost certain to win the Republican nomination, and then to lose against Warner.

Former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) is off to a strong start in fundraising for the open Senate race in Virginia, bringing in $1.1 million last quarter. The fun part: He'd only been a candidate since September 13, raising money for a mere 18 days in the quarter.

On the Republican side, the prospective candidates' fundraising isn't nearly as good. Congressman Tom Davis brought in only $218,844.84 last quarter, and barely broke even with $203,299.74 in expenditures. His total cash on hand comes to 1,049,449.51, about the same as Warner's but somewhat lackluster given his years-long head start in fundraising for federal races.

The more right-wing potential candidate for Virginia Republicans, former Governor Jim Gilmore, ended his presidential campaign in debt. His committee has only $18,203.11 on hand, with $147,048.45 currently owed in debts.

(Via MyDD)

At a meeting today of the Virginia Republican Party's central committee, party leaders voted 47-37 to use a convention to nominate their candidate in the 2008 Senate race, rather than a primary.

The move is seen as potentially benefitting former Governor Jim Gilmore, who is running from the right and favored a convention, and hurting Congressman Tom Davis, who is somewhat more moderate and had argued for a primary in order to recruit new Republican voters and increase the nominee's name recognition.

Neither Gilmore nor Davis have officially declared their Senate candidacies yet, but are expected to announce their plans some time after this November's legislative elections. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the open seat.

A new poll from the Washington Post shows Democrat Mark Warner way ahead in the Virginia Senate race, leading potential Republican candidates Jim Gilmore 61%-31% and Tom Davis 63%-28%.

The internals only get worse for the Republicans. In Davis' own base of Fairfax County, Warner beats Davis 57%-33%. And among self-described conservatives, whom Gilmore has been courting, four in ten say they would vote for Warner.

A Warner victory would mean a Democratic pick-up of the seat held by retiring GOP Senator John Warner (no relation).

Update: Another problem for Tom Davis would be in a potential primary with Gilmore, with Gilmore leading 48%-29%. There may not be a primary, though, as the nomination could potentially be decided through a convention system — and a convention could also tilt towards Gilmore.

In a sign of just how unhappy conservatives are with their choices in the Virginia Senate race, National Review has a new editorial calling for a draft movement to bring in a new Republican candidate: Retired General Peter Pace.

The article brings out a list of complaints against the two Republicans currently expected to make the race, Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore — for example, even the more conservative Gilmore has supported legal abortion in the first trimester. By contrast, the forcibly-retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is praised for his vocal social conservatism, such as when he denounced homosexuality as immoral while giving an interview in uniform.

And in a sign of the right's intransigence on Iraq, Davis and Gilmore are condemned for their insufficient support for President Bush's policies compared to Pace — one of the architects of those policies. And perhaps most bizarrely, the editorial praises Pace for refusing to go quietly when he was not re-appointed as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, in the face of Congressional opposition:

Pace has also explained that his experiences in Vietnam guided his decision about whether to retire voluntarily. Recalling the Marines who followed him onto the battlefield and lost their lives, he said, "I promised myself then that I will serve this country until I was no longer needed. I need to be told that I'm done. I've been told that I'm done."

Virginia Republicans should tell this devoted patriot that he is not done, and encourage him to take on another mission.

This all begs a very important question: Do conservatives actually want to talk even more next year about Iraq, and all the decisions made there over the past five years?

The numbers are out for the SurveyUSA poll of Virginia, testing former Democratic Governor Mark Warner against Republican Congressman Tom Davis, former Governor Jim Gilmore — two men widely believed to be on the verge of running — plus former Senator George Allen, whose 2006 implosion helped Dems take over the Senate.

The numbers would seem to show that despite trailing Warner by the worst margin, Davis in fact has the most room to grow among the Republicans as he introduces himself to voters statewide. But this might not mean much if the Republicans can't effectively take down Warner — half the people already like Warner, and only 14% dislike him, with plenty of room for him to improve as he reintroduces himself statewide.

The horserace numbers:

Warner (D) 62%, Davis (R) 27%
Warner (D) 60%, Gilmore (R) 32%
Warner (D) 56%, Allen (R) 37%

And the favorable/unfavorable numbers for all four men are available after the jump.

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A new poll from SurveyUSA, conducted for a local Virginia ABC affiliate, finds former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) with massive leads over his potential Republican opponents in the race for the open Senate seat. Warner leads Congressman Tom Davis by 35 points, and beats former Governor Jim Gilmore by 28 points.

The actual numbers have not been given yet, only the margins. The full results will come out later today.

Former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, seeking the seat of retiring GOP Senator John Warner. "I've decided the way I can contribute the most to getting our country back on the right track is to serve in the United States Senate," Warner says in an online video:

Warner has put up the beginnings of a campaign site, MarkWarner2008.com, though as of yet it only has his announcement video, a contribution page, and a sign-up sheet for future updates.

A reminder: Former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) is set to announce his plans for 2008 in an e-mail being sent out to supporters at 9 a.m. ET today. It is widely expected that he will announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat of GOP Senator John Warner (no relation), who is retiring.

Mark Warner's candidacy would create a strong pick-up opportunity for Senate Democrats, as polls already show him beating two potential Republican nominees by strong margins.

The Associated Press says it has the story:

Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner intends to run for the Senate next year, Democratic officials said Wednesday, assuring his party a competitive race for a seat long in Republican hands.

Warner scheduled an e-mail announcement of his plans for Thursday...

The officials who discussed former Gov. Warner's intentions did so on condition of anonymity, saying they did not want to pre-empt his announcement.

Many analysts think Warner has a very good shot at winning the seat, and his entry into the race is a major headache for the GOP, which is also dealing with the near-certain resignation of Larry Craig, the increasing weakness the Iraq war has inflicted on a number of GOP incumbents, and the party's need to defend far more seats than the Dems need to defend.

If Warner wins, it will mean that Dems will have recaptured a seat that has been in Republican hands since 1972 -- and that two Senate seats in this southern state will have flipped from red to blue in only two years.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to pick up the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (R-VA), if they can get former Dem Governor Mark Warner (no relation) to run. Mark Warner beats Congressman Tom Davis by a margin of 57%-30%, and tops former Governor Jim Gilmore by a 54%-34% margin.

Rasmussen also has Virginia looking like a swing state in next year's presidential race, with a definite chance of a Democratic win. Hillary Clinton is beating Rudy Giuliani there 44%-41%, and edges Fred Thompson 46%-44% — results that are within the margin of error. Dems have not carried Virginia since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.

Great Virginia Hope Mark Warner says that he'll be announcing within a week whether he'll run for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. That means we'll know whether he's running by next week at the latest.

If he does run, many analysts think he'll have a pretty easy time taking the seat -- which raises the extraordinary possibility that both of Virginia's Senate seats could end up flipping from red to blue in the space of two years.

Now that long-time Senator John Warner (R-VA) has announced his retirement, both parties will have candidates lining up for the seat in 2008.

It's the first open-seat Senate contest in Virginia since 1988 and potentially the first competitive open-seat race since 1982, when Republican Paul Trible edged out Dem Richard Davis for the seat of retiring independent Senator Harry Byrd Jr., the seat now held by Democrat Jim Webb.

How will it shake out? Our full rundown after the jump.

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At a press conference in Virgina right now, GOP Senator John Warner just announced that he plans to retire. Here's his key quote:

"So, I say that my work and service to Virginia as a senator -- and I repeat, my work and service to Virginia as a senator -- will conclude upon the 6th of January, 2009, when I finish, in the Constitution of the United States on the first Tuesday of the new Congress, my career of 30 years in the United States Senate."

Warner's retirement is huge news -- it dramatically alters the electoral map for 2008, making gains in the Senate even more likely for Democrats. Many analysts think that Warner's retirement means that his seat is an almost-certain Dem pickup, should former Democratic governor Mark Warner decide to run, as many expect.

If Mark Warner does pick up the seat next year, it will mean that not one, but two Senate seats in this southern state flipped from red to blue in a mere two years. Last year, of course, Senator Jim Webb won a surprise victory over GOP incumbent George Allen.

Virginia's Richmond Times-Dispatch has a rundown on Warner's career here. The Virginia blog Raising Kaine games out the far-reaching impact that this will have on Virginia politics here.

More in a bit, including video.

Late Update: Here's a quick rundown on how Warner's retirement will play out among Republicans angling for his seat. John Warner's protegé Congressman Tom Davis is expected to make a run for it — likely opening up his Northern Virginia House seat to a Democratic takeover. There remain a large group of conservative activists who distrust Davis, so he may face a right-wing challenger such as former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the Republican presidential race.

Can the GOP hold the seat? Probably not, due to Mark Warner's popularity. But the GOP definitely has a fighting chance, given the state's Republican lean in presidential election years. Considering Gilmore's unpopularity when he left office — succeeded by Mark Warner — and his embarrassing campaign for the presidency, he would likely be a much easier opponent for Mark Warner to defeat than Tom Davis, who has a political base in the swing areas of Fairfax County and Northern Virginia as a whole.

Bottom line: Mark Warner is heavily favored to win the seat for the Democrats, but it's not certain just yet. — eric kleefeld

Later Update: A key quote from the statement issued by fellow Virginia Senator Jim Webb:

“While today is a bittersweet announcement for Virginia, the nation and the Senate, it bears emphasis that Senator Warner still has more than a year in office. During that time, he will continue to play a crucial role in formulating a more rational policy in Iraq. Just last week, we saw his leadership and independence on display once more. The President would do well to listen to John Warner during his last year in office.”

Won't happen, but it's a nice sentiment.

Jonathan Martin:

Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school’s famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event.

A Warner retirement, obviously, would be huge news, potentially making the 2008 Senate map look even better for the Dems. Many analysts think that such a move would open a clear path to the seat for another Virginian named Warner -- this one a Dem named Mark.

If that were to happen, both of this southern state's Senate seats would have flipped from red to blue -- in the space of two years. Last year, of course, Dem Senator Jim Webb won a surprise victory over GOP incumbent George Allen.

We've got a call into Warner's office for confirmation. More in a bit.