Here's a sign that the McCain campaign could be worried that Obama has a real chance of winning in Virginia, a state that's historically voted red but has been trending blue.

The McCain camp has bought up ad time for a sixty-second spot in at least four major Virginia media markets, a Democratic ad buyer tells me. The markets: Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, and Tri-Cities.

A McCain aide confirmed the buy but declined to discuss specifics.

The ad is set to begin airing next Tuesday, and the buy is a moderate one, the buyer says, meaning that the ad will probably run four or five times a week.

"At this point in the campaign, that's a good start," the buyer says. He added that it shows that the McCain campaign realizes that Camp Obama's efforts in the state -- Obama is airing an ad and has sent key staff -- isn't "just a head-fake."

"It shows they're worried about Virginia," the buyer said.

Obama To Show Missouri A Patriotism Speech
Barack Obama will be at the Harry Truman Memorial Building in Independence, Missouri, where he will deliver a speech this morning on "what patriotism means to him and what it requires of all Americans who loves this country and want to see it do better," according to the campaign's morning e-mail to reporters. The event is clearly a key move to answer the McCain's recent push to tie every issue to the idea of patriotism, and the notion that McCain is a more loyal American. The doors open for the event at 10 a.m. ET.

John McCain In Pennsylvania Today
John McCain will be spending his time today in Pennsylvania, a major swing state that has not voted Republican for president since it went to George H.W. Bush in 1988, but where McCain is hoping to win working-class voters. McCain will be greeting supporters in Allentown, and then touring a sheet metal factory in Pipersville.

McCauliffe: Obama And Bill Clinton Will Talk Soon
Terry McAuliffe told CNN yesterday that Barack Obama and Bill Clinton will finally talk to each other some time soon, and that Bill will be ready to campaign for Obama soon. "I believe that in the next 24 to 48 hours they will talk and off we will go," McAuliffe said.

McCain Camp: Obama Should Condemn Clark's Comments
John McCain's campaign is demanding that the Obama camp condemn remarks yesterday by Gen. Wesley Clark on CBS' Face The Nation, in which Clark said that McCain's having been shot down in Vietnam was not a qualification to be president. "If Barack Obama wants to question John McCain's service to his country, he should have the guts to do it himself and not hide behind his campaign surrogates," said retired Adm. Leighton Smith in a McCain campaign press release.

Poll: Dead Heat In Virginia
A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant lead of 49%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. A little over a month ago, Obama had a 49%-42% lead. The vice presidential match-ups also show that Gov. Tim Kaine would not affect the margins, and that Sen. Jim Webb would potentially bring a net three points to the Dem ticket.

Poll: McCain Up By Ten In Georgia
A new Rasmussen poll of Georgia gives John McCain a 53%-43% lead, outside the ±4% margin of error. This is contrary to a recent InsiderAdvantage poll that gave John McCain only a one-point lead, and had native son Bob Barr's presence on the ballot significantly affecting the race. In this Rasmussen poll, Barr only gets one percent.

McCain Meets With Billy And Franklin Graham
John McCain met today with Billy Graham and his son Franklin, himself an influential Christian, in an opportunity to reach out to Christian conservatives who have tended to mistrust him over the years. Fun fact: In 2003, Franklin Graham looked forward to the Iraq War as an opportunity to spread Christianity in the Middle East.

Obama And McCain Camps Fight Over Immigration
The weekend has turned into a mini-slugfest between the two presidential campaigns over immigration. Obama used his speech yesterday at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in Washington to attack McCain for backing away from his immigration reform proposals. This was then followed by the McCain camp blasting out e-mails blaming Obama for undermining the 2007 reform -- and the Obama camp then blasting out a 2006 letter from McCain, thanking Obama for his help on the issue.

Poll: McCain Ahead But Under 50% In Home State
A new Rasmussen poll of Arizona gives John McCain the lead in his home state -- but he is unable to get over 50%, a sign that he may end up having to take time to campaign here when he could be in other states. The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Holbrooke To Raise Money For Obama in London
Former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke -- a top foreign-policy man in Bill Clinton's administration who supported HIllary during the primaries -- will be holding a fundraiser in London on July 8, for Americans abroad supporting Barack Obama. The ticket price: $2,500.

WaPo: Nation's Socio-Economic Political Geography Shifting
An article in today's Washington Post examines the shifts in political demographics. "In 1976, Republican Gerald R. Ford won 10 of the 12 states with the highest per-capita income but lost the election; in 2004, John F. Kerry did the same for the Democrats," the paper observes. The two high-income states won by the GOP in 2004 were Colorado and Virginia -- which are today at the top of Barack Obama's target list.

NYT: Internet Freelancers Changing Political Dialogue
The New York Times this morning profiles the effect that the Internet has had on political discourse: "This year, the development of cheap new editing programs and fast video distribution through sites like YouTube has broken down the barriers, empowering a new generation of largely unregulated political warriors who can affect the campaign dialogue faster and with more impact than the traditional opposition research shops."

Another poll is showing that Barack Obama could potentially win Virginia, a historically red state that has been trending Democratic and would represent a major breakthrough if the Dems could pick it up.

The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±3.3% margin of error. This is on top of a Rasmussen poll from two days ago, which gave Obama a one-point lead.

Although this state hasn't voted Dem since 1964, the Obama campaign is aggressively targeting it thanks to the Democratic growth in northern Virginia. Local geographic shifts like this -- combined with the Obama campaign's big treasury, which allows Obama to compete aggressively in more states than past Dems have -- suggest that the map of competitive states really may be much broader than usual this year.

Barack Obama could very well end up flipping Virginia -- a state that has voted Republican in every election since 1968 -- over into the Democratic column, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.

The numbers: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain led by a 47%-44% margin. This is on top of a SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago, which gave Obama a 49%-42% lead.

The Obama campaign has aggressively targeted Virginia as a state they think they can win over, thanks to the growth in the Democratic voter base that has happened there over the past ten years. If they can successfully take its 13 electoral votes, it would become very difficult for John McCain to get a winning map without a state that Republicans have normally been able to count on.

Wow, this one really spells trouble for the GOP this fall -- the guy in charge of the party's Senate races just basically wrote off the Republicans' chances in two of their five open seats.

At yesterday's Christian Science Monitor forum -- the same venue where he upgraded the GOP's goal to a potential three-seat loss -- NRSC chairman John Ensign was asked point-blank if the party was giving up on the open seats they currently hold in Virginia and New Mexico, where the Democratic nominees are way ahead of the Republicans in current polling.

Ensign said bluntly: "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win."

Here's as good an indication as any that the Obama campaign is dead serious about trying to put Virginia in play.

The campaign says that they're sending Mitch Stewart, one of Obama's star organizers, into the state to serve as Virginia's state director. This is no small thing. Stewart served as Obama's Iowa caucus director, where he was in charge of the whole field effort, pulling off a major coup and helping deliver the victory that essentially put Obama on track to victory.

Stewart served as Tom Daschle's field director in 2004 and was regional director for John Edwards in Iowa in 2003.

Virginia will be a very interesting state to watch this fall.

In a further indication of just how closely contested this Fall's campaign could be, a new round of Rasmussen polls in Virginia and North Carolina show that the elections for even these Republican base states are running close:

North Carolina
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%, Clinton (D) 40%

Virginia
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 41%

North Carolina hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter's win in 1976, while Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.

Sorry, Huckmentum hopefuls: NBC and Fox call Virginia for McCain.

Exactly one minute after the polls closed, CNN, MSNBC and Fox all call Virginia for Barack Obama.

Late Update: That the race would be called so quickly is obviously a signal of just how big a landslide victory this is. But look at some of these exit poll numbers cited by MSNBC.

* Hillary barely won the white vote, 51%-48%.

* Hillary won almost none of the black vote -- 10% -- while Obama got 90% of it.

* Obama won by a large margin among white men, 55%-43%.

* Hillary did win by a big margin among white women, 58%-42%, which suggests that this firewall constituency remains reliable for her.

More soon.

Late Update: Here's another really interesting exit poll number cited by CNN: Obama had a 10-point lead, 54%-44%, on who is most qualified to be Commander in Chief -- Hillary's core campaign argument.

Late Update: One stat the Obama campaign will be trying to make a point of: Obama won the Latino vote by 10 points in Virginia, 55%-45%. But the exit polls show that the Latino vote in Virginia is all of five percent, so it's unclear how significant this is.

Late Update: Another key figure in the Hillary camp resigns.

Late Update: Two more Hillary staffers out.

Late Update: Here's a key excerpt from Obama's victory speech, in which he seizes on the occasion to train his fire on presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

A key question for tonight: Will Obama show a capacity to cut into Hillary's core constituency groups?

Well, according to early exit polls cited by Fox News, Obama holds a massive lead in Virginia over Hillary among women, 58%-42%.

Other Virginia exits cited by Fox:

Whites: Hillary 51%, Obama 48%

Seniors (another key Hillary constituency): Obama 53%, Hillary 47%

Late-deciders: Hillary 52%, Obama 48%

Young voters: Obama 80%, Hillary 20%

Independents: Obama 66%, Hillary 33%

Expect the first Potomac Primary results to start trickling in a little after 7 P.M. We'll be blogging them right here at TPM Election Central.

Today's SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that John McCain might have some of the same problems in tomorrow's primary as he did in the weekend contests, when he lost Kansas and Louisiana and was awarded a close victory in Washington State, which Mike Huckabee is now disputing.

Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:

McCain 48% (-9)
Huckabee 37% (+10)

Huckabee did well this past weekend due in part to the low turnout, caused by the McCain's virtually-certain nomination. In such a situation, only the most dedicated, hard-core conservative voters even bothered to show up.

And the poll's internals show that Huck is ahead among self-described conservatives, 45%-40%. This means that very low turnout could conceivably duplicate in Virginia the same conditions that marked those other races, thus providing the potential for a Huck upset.

For an example of how such amazingly low turnout can throw off conventional polling models, note that SurveyUSA had McCain ahead by nearly 30 points in Washington State.

There's a clear consensus in the polling for tomorrow's Potomac Primary: Obama's got it made. Barring an upset/polling foul-up like the one we saw in New Hampshire, Obama seems set for comfortable victories in both Maryland and Virginia, and is heavily favored to win the majority-African-American District of Columbia. Here are the surveys from the last few days:

Maryland:

ARG: Obama 55%, Clinton 37% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 35% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 31% (Feb. 9)

SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, Clinton 33% (Feb. 8)

Virginia:

SurveyUSA: Obama 60%, Clinton 38% (Today)

ARG: Obama 56%, Clinton 38% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 37% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 55%, Clinton 37% (Feb. 9)

The new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a huge lead in this Potomac Primary state, with 59% to Hillary Clinton's 39%. There are 83 delegates at stake in Virginia, plus 70 in Maryland and 15 in the District of Columbia this Tuesday — and at least from this vantage point, Obama seems well-positioned for all three contests.

The demographic breakdown: The two are tied among white voters at 49%-49%, Obama leads among African-Americans 87%-12%, Hillary has Hispanics 60%-39%, and the two are in a dead heat in the "Other" category. This would seem to follow the national trends, albeit with a possible slight up-tick for Obama with both whites and Latinos.

With the money race shifting (somewhat) back in Hillary's direction, she goes up on the air in the Potomac Primary states, Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., all of which are holding their votes Tuesday.

The ads, which have run before in other states, are both bread-and-butter economy spots portraying her as a steady hand on the tiller during a time of economic crisis. And there's of course the obligatory reference to her "35 years of experience." View them after the jump.

Late Update: Just to clarify, Obama is still significantly ahead financially, but in the last few days Hillary has managed to regain some fundraising momentum that it appeared she'd lost.

Read more »

Today's a big day for John McCain — he's giving his speech to the CPAC conference, where he will do his best to assuage the doubts of the many conservative activists in attendance. During the speech, expect him to stress how he got involved in politics as a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," and to attack the right-wing bona-fides of a certain former Massachusetts governor who used to not be so conservative.

In that spirit, here's McCain's new ad running in the Potomac Primary area, attacking Mitt Romney for his past political life as an anti-Reagan liberal:

"If we can't trust trust Mitt Romney on Ronald Reagan," the announcer asks, "how can we trust him to lead America?"

McCain is also running some of his other standard ads, such as the "True Conservative" spot, which name-drops Reagan profusely.

A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Virginia — which hasn't voted Democratic for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964 — may be on the verge of going Dem in 2008. When matched against four top Republicans, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama win seven out of eight heats:

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 43%
Obama (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 42%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 44%

It's interesting that despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is too polarizing for red/purple states, she actually runs better in this particular state than Barack Obama does.

Less than a week after enacting a controversial loyalty oath requirement in order to participate in their primary, the Virginia Republican Party has reversed course and voted to cancel the rule. The oath would have required primary voters to sign in writing that they intend to vote for the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

"We want to attract people to the Republican Party," said Fairfax County Republican Committee chairman Jim Hyland. "The perception was that it was more of a closed-door policy, and we want an open-door policy."

The Virginia GOP has found an interesting way to discourage non-Republicans from voting in their presidential primary. Voters will be required to sign an oath, pledging to support the party's nominee for president.

Sen. Harry Byrd Jr. (D-VA) famously bolted from the Democrats and became an independent in the 1970s due to such a loyalty oath being imposed on candidates, but this goes an extra step by putting the the oath to voters. Oddly enough, the state Board of Elections has approved the request, even though it would be impossible to enforce the contract not only practically, but probably in legal terms, too — as contracts requiring a party to vote a certain way in an election are illegal.

A new Rasmussen poll in Virginia shows that the state could be close in 2008, with three of the top Republicans holding statistically insignificant leads against Hillary Clinton:

Giuliani (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 43%
Thompson (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Huckabee R) 39%

However, Clinton would have some reason to worry here — her unfavorable rating is a solid 51%.

Meanwhile, former Governor Mark Warner (D) holds a 53%-37% lead over former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) in the open Senate race.

A SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that Hillary Clinton could potentially pick up the state, which hasn't voted Democratic for president since 1964. Only John McCain is able to score a solid victory against her:

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 52%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 42%
Clinton (D) 54%, Paul (R) 35%
Giuliani (R) 47%, Gore (D) 45%

Some other questions from the new Washington Post poll show that Democrats might be able to carry it in the presidential race for the first time since 1964. By an eleven-point margin (no full numbers) voters want the next president to be a Democrat rather than a Republican.

In the primaries, about half of respondents for the Democratic side said they're for Hillary Clinton, about one quarter are for Barack Obama, and only 11% are for John Edwards. Obama trails Hillary by a wide margin despite the support of popular Governor Tim Kaine.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani still leads the race despite his social liberalism, with a heavily divided opposition. Rudy gets 34% support, followed by John McCain at 20%, Fred Thompson with 19%, and Mitt Romney at 9%.