With the campaign about to end in a few hours, let's pass the time with a look at Barack Obama's final rally last night in Manassas, Virginia, which had a crowd size estimated at over 85,000 people:

The message inherent in the anecdote Obama told here -- that he went to visit a single potential supporter in a remote rural area, at a time when he was way back in the polls, and now he's standing on Election Eve in front of over 85,000 people -- is that the campaign can't stop working for a single second.

The Obama campaign's message to supporters for the last day of the campaign was not so much about the issues as it was about the last-minute mechanics of the election -- turnout, turnout, turnout, and what every supporter can do to contribute to it.

The final polls coming in from Indiana and Virginia, two state that haven't voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide but where the Obama campaign has aggressively competed, show these states going down to the wire, with a better picture for Obama in Virginia:

• Indiana: Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a one-point lead, 49%-48%, compared to a 48%-46% Obama edge two weeks ago. Zogby has McCain up by five points, 49%-44%, compared to a 50%-44% McCain lead a week ago.

• Virginia: PPP has Obama up by six points, 52%-46%, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead a week ago. Zogby has Obama up by six points, 51%-45%, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead a week ago. And Rasmussen has Obama up 51%-47%, unchanged from a week ago.

If Obama picks up either of these states, which Republican have been able to count on winning for 44 years, it could potentially signal an Electoral College landslide.

A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

The Virginia GOP is putting a flyer on cars outside churches in Virginia that compares the candidates' records on abortion and gay marriage and demands that voters "vote your values," a reader in Fairfax reports.

Click on the images to enlarge:

"Vote your values," the flyer commands -- and not your economic interests.

"We need a President who brings honor and integrity to the highest office in the land," it also reads, a line that puts the Virginia GOP at odds with McCain, who has conceded that Obama is "very honorable."

Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

A new set of state polls show Barack Obama leading in three Bush 2004 states -- one down to the wire, one by a decent margin, and one by a landslide.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that this state is a tight race going into the final days of the campaign, with Barack Obama up by just four points. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a heftier lead of nine points, 52%-43%. Today's poll has the same margin as the new Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up 47%-43%, although with a smaller number of undecideds.

In New Mexico, which narrowly went to Bush in 2004, today's Albuquerque Journal poll has Obama ahead by eight points, 51%-43%, similar to last night's SurveyUSA poll with Obama up 52%-45%. A month ago, the Journal's poll had Obama up 45%-40%.

The new Selzer poll of Iowa gives Obama a massive 17-point lead, 54%-37%, in a state that narrowly went to Bush in 2004, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead in September. Obama has consistently led McCain here, despite McCain still putting some decent money into the state.

Late Update: It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.

Late Late Update: Mason-Dixon also has some more polls showing Obama and McCain splitting seven key Bush states by close margins, which would give Obama the White House if those numbers were to hold up on Election Day.

Late Late Update: On top of this, the new Pew poll is predicting that Obama will have an overall win of 52%-46% in the national popular vote.

Poll: Tight Race In Virginia
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a lead of 47% to John McCain's 44%, with a ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead a week ago. The poll also shows that white voters are disproportionately undecided, which if true could mean a late break in John McCain's direction -- the question is whether this pattern in Virginia politics repeats again, and whether it's enough of a break to overcome Obama's lead.

Bellwether Poll: Obama Ahead By Six In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio, conducted by mail, has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by a 52%-46% margin, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead a month ago. Historically, the leader in the Dispatch's final Ohio poll has consistently carried the state.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 1 p.m. ET rally in Columbus with Michelle Obama, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Cleveland with Michelle and Bruce Springsteen, and a solo rally at 9 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Joe Biden is swinging through Florida, with a 10:45 a.m. ET rally in Tallahassee, a 4 p.m. ET rally in Gainesville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Daytona Beach.

McCain In Pennsylvania, New Hampshire And Florida; Palin In Ohio
John McCain is making a final attempt to win over two Kerry states today, with an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania, a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and a 6:15 p.m. ET town hall-style event in Peterborough, New Hampshire, followed by a rally after midnight in Miami, Florida, his one red state for the day. Sarah Palin is touring through the Bush state of Ohio today, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Canton, a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Marietta, a 5 p.m. ET rally in Columbus, and an 8 p.m. ET rally in Batavia.

Hillary Campaigning For Obama In Virginia
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally at 4:30 p.m. ET in Fairfax, Virginia, on behalf of Barack Obama. Earlier in the day she will also be campaigning in Kentucky for Bruce Lunsford, the Dem candidate against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

Poll: Obama Way Up In New Mexico Early Vote
A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico, which narrowly voted for George W. Bush in 2004, shows Barack Obama with a 58%-39% lead among those who have already voted, with an estimated 60% of the total ballots already cast. If these estimates are all accurate, John McCain would need to win the remaining likely voters by nearly two to one in order to carry the state -- but he's only ahead 54%-41% with this subset, for an overall top-line result of Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error.

Gibbs: We Screen Obama's Calls
Obama adviser and surrogate Robert Gibbs had this to say about Sarah Palin's phone call with a Canadian prank-call comedian saying he was the President of France: "I'm glad we check out our calls before we hand the phone to Barack Obama."

The Washington Post has some amazing detail on the two campaigns' organizations in Virginia that dramatizes why Obama is outperforming in the state:

More than 10,000 volunteers are working for Obama in Virginia, according to the campaign...

Grass-roots activity in Virginia for McCain appears to be less energized. A recent two-day swing through every Northern Virginia campaign office for both candidates found crowds of volunteers for Obama on the phones, being trained to canvass and passing out signs, stickers and other material. McCain's offices were universally quiet, in some cases with just one or two field workers sitting at a counter or table and little foot traffic.

This week, just days before the election, Obama's Web site advertised more than 300 events in Northern Virginia; McCain's advertised seven.

To put this in perspective, consider that according to a WaPo poll earlier this week, more than half of Virginia voters said they'd been contacted by the Obama camp. Even better, among likely voters who'd been contacted but who hadn't heard from the McCain camp, Obama is leading 75%-22%.

This appears to be the story in other states, such as Indiana: Obama put an organization on the ground in "out of reach" red states, then worked and worked to make the race close or even take the lead, leaving the McCain camp scrambling to catch up.

Swift and targeted on-air responses have been key to Obama's success, and the Obama camp has just unleashed a particularly hard-hitting response in the Norfolk, Virginia market to the RNC's ad there charging that he wants to cut defense spending, an important local issue.

Here's Obama's new spot:

"John McCain's gotten so desperate, he'll say anything," the ad says. "His defense spending attack -- it's a lie."

The ad quotes McCain military adviser Robert Kagan saying: "Obama wants to increase defense spending. He wants to add 65,000 troops to the Army and recruit 27,000 more Marines to fight terrorism."

The ad concludes that Obama "knows a stronger military means a safer America, and a stronger economy here in Virginia."

Late Update: The Kagan piece the ad refers to is here. It's an analysis of a speech that Obama gave in April of 2007, which Kagan sarcastically said showed that Obama, rather than espouse a "left-liberal" foreign policy," was articulating a role for America as an aggressive "interventionist" because (said Kagan) that's what Obama's advisers think the "American people want to hear."

Late Late Update: Steve Benen -- again -- provides much needed context.

The newest polls show tight races in some key swing states -- with two separate polls confirming a close race in Indiana:

• Indiana: Obama is up 46%-45% in a new Selzer poll, and it's a tied race of 47%-47% according to a Research 2000 poll released last night. Obama was up 47%-44% in a Selzer poll from a month and a half ago, and Research 2000 had Obama up 48%-47% the day before yesterday.

• Colorado: Marist has Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key state is that Obama has won the early vote 59%-41%, with a 46%-46% tie among the remaining likely electorate. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Marist has Obama up 51%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison. The polls in Virginia right now are split between those who say Obama is narrowly ahead and those who say he's way ahead.

Also, the new Fox News national poll has Obama ahead 47%-44%, with a ±3% margin of error, a much closer lead than the 49%-40% advantage from a week ago.

The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:

• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.

• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.

All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.

As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.

The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:

• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.

• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.

These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.

All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.

It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.

Three new polls have now found Barack Obama with a clear and decisive lead in Virginia, bringing him one crucial step closer to a majority in the Electoral College:

• SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.9% margin of error, not significantly different from a 53%-43% Obama lead from three weeks ago. Nine percent of respondents have already voted, giving Obama a 67%-30% majority, and he's ahead 50%-44% among the remaining 91% of likely voters.

• Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll for comparison.

• Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-46% Obama lead a month ago.

The early-vote number from SurveyUSA shows just what a hole John McCain is in. If he loses the early vote in a given state, he has to not only win the vote on Election Day, but win it by a large enough majority to overcome his early-vote deficit.

If John McCain can't turn things around in Virginia, then he really has to sweep the big three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania if he is to have any hope of winning. And the public polls in Pennsylvania haven't pointed towards any real chance of such a strategy working.

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

Obama To Deliver "Closing Argument" Speech
Barack Obama is rolling out his "closing argument" speech today, with the rhetorical points he will stress for the remainder of the campaign. There won't be any great substantive change, but this line from the prepared remarks, condemning Republican culture-war politics, jumps out in the way it hearkens back to his 2004 convention speech: "In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope."

Obama In Ohio And Pennsylvania; Biden In North Carolina And Florida
Barack Obama is holding a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Canton, Ohio, at which he will roll out his "closing argument" stump speech, followed by a 3 p.m. ET rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Joe Biden is holding a 10 a.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in New Port Richey, Florida.

Michelle Obama On The Tonight Show, And Rallying In Nevada
Michelle Obama is taping an appearance for tonight on The Tonight Show, and will then be holding a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, beginning at at 9:15 p.m. local time (that is, a quarter after midnight ET).

McCain In Ohio And Pennsylvania; Palin In Virginia
John McCain is holding a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Dayton, Ohio, and a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Pottsville, Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin is touring through Virginia today, with a 10 a.m. ET rally in Leesburg, a 1 p.m. ET rally in Fredericksburg, and a 6:45 p.m. ET rally in Salem.

GOP Sen. Kyl: Unfortunately, McCain Will Probably Lose
Sen. Jon Kyl, John McCain's fellow Republican Senator from Arizona, is openly voicing pessimism about McCain's chances next Tuesday. "Unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but were never elected," Kyl told the Arizona Daily Star.

Poll: Obama Ahead By Eight In Virginia
A new Washington Post poll gives Barack Obama a 52%-44% lead in Virginia, up from a 49%-46% lead a month ago. There now seems to be a strong consensus in the polls that Obama has a solid lead in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide.

Palin: The Clothes Are Like The Stage And Lighting
At a rally yesterday in Tampa, Sarah Palin explained that the story about her expensive campaign wardrobe was "ridiculous," saying the clothes are not her property and are like the stage and the lighting -- after the rally is over, it all goes back to the RNC to dispose of. This does invite an interesting question: How much else about Palin is just so much stagecraft?

A new round of CNN polls in five red states has some very good news for Barack Obama: He's leading in four out of the five, with a huge lead in Virginia.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was up 51%-47%.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, it was a 49%-49% tie.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama was ahead 50%-47%.

• Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. This is basically unchanged from Obama's 53%-43% lead a week ago.

• West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain was only up 50%-46%, so this is the one sliver of good news for him in here.

All five of these states voted twice for George W. Bush, and the four where Obama is ahead add up to 53 electoral votes. John McCain pretty much needs to hold on to all 53 of them, or else it will be exceedingly difficult for him to pull off a victory.

The Obama campaign goes up on the air in Virginia with a new spot that launches one of its most direct hits yet on McCain's temperament and steadiness under pressure:

The ad uses the growing unease with McCain's handling of the economic crisis, which is reflected in multiple polls, to undercut the Arizona Senator's own claim to being more prepared to handle crises than the unseasoned Obama.

"Senator McCain and Governor Palin talk about experience. A steady hand," the ad says. "But in this economic crisis, it's McCain who's careened from stance to stance. Been erratic. Poured gasoline on the economic mess."

One thing the meltdown did was enlarge the playing field on which the battle is playing out over who's better prepared to handle crises in a general sense, a category where Obama has now gained a pronounced edge. Indeed, the new Pew poll, among others, suggests an interesting paradox in this race: The focus away from national security and on to the economy has actually improved Obama's numbers on national security by improving perceptions of his overall preparedness.

Two new polls give Barack Obama solid leads in Virginia, which hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964.

The numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a narrow lead of 50%-47%, and it was 50%-48% for Obama two weeks ago.

The new poll from SurveyUSA: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. Two weeks ago, SurveyUSA had Obama up 53%-43%. The internals this week show Obama winning 42% of the white vote, well ahead of John Kerry's 32% in 2004.

Relatedly, Chris Bowers argues persuasively over at Open Left that the overall map is such that that McCain needs to sweep -- yes, sweep -- victories in seven Bush states in order to avoid losing: Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. That puts individual state polls like these into much-needed perspective.

Appearing earlier today on MSNBC, McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer gave an interesting response to poll data showing that the campaign is trailing in Virginia: They're actually winning in "Real Virginia," which is the part of the state outside of Northern Virginia that is "more Southern in nature":

This seems to be in line with Sarah Palin's declaration that the conservative areas where she campaigns are the "Real America," and also hearkens back to John McCain's bother Joe McCain calling Virginia's Democratic strongholds of Arlington and Alexandria "Communist country."

Overall, the McCain campaign seems to be pursuing a very extreme form of a base-centered strategy: Promoting turnout in GOP strongholds by routinely bad-mouthing Democratic areas as not being truly American and as something to be feared.

In the race's final stretch, much of the real sludge and slime that floats to the surface will be the work not of the campaigns but of under-the-radar operations run by state parties and the like.

Here, for instance, is a new mailer from the Republican Party of Virginia that has to be seen to be believed. It hits Dems -- and by extension, Obama -- for wanting to appease terrorists and rogue leaders.

But the key is the last page, which displays a man who looks like Obama but with the same dark and sinister aspect as the bad actors depicted elsewhere in the mailing. Note the words superimposed over his face (click on the images to enlarge)...

How about those eyes, huh? Here's the rest:

We asked Virginia spokesperson Gerry Scimeca whether the likeness to Obama was in fact the Illinois Senator, and he said he couldn't immediately say. Asked to defend the mailer, he said: "It's about the fact that the world is evil," he said, referring to the multiple bad actors that populate the planet. "Choosing a president is about standing up to them."

To our eyes, the ambiguity over whether the image is that of Obama is alone telling. Meanwhile, Raising Kaine has the lowdown on the mailer's multiple distortions.

The newest survey from Public Policy Polling (D) not only has Barack Obama ahead in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964 -- it's the widest lead he's had in their polling yet.

The new numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.2% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that show Obama building up a sizable lead here.

The internals show Obama winning 42% of the white vote, way ahead of John Kerry's 32% in 2004. This could explain why Obama is doing so well: Sixty-three percent of respondents say the economy is the single most important issue, and this group is going for Obama 59%-36%.

Late Update: Now this is interesting. A new ARG poll gives Obama a 50%-42% lead in West Virginia. The major caveat here, of course, is that ARG's track record during the presidential primaries was simply less than stellar, and other polls have given McCain the lead here. But maybe the economic crisis is having an effect here, too.

A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:

• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.

• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.

• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.

• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.

• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.

At a campaign event in Virginia over the weekend, John McCain's brother, acting as a McCain surrogate, told a crowd that McCain would pursue Osama Bin Laden across the border into a country that hadn't granted us permission to do so, according to a tape made by a Democratic tracker that we've obtained.

McCain, of course, has ridiculed Obama for taking just that position with regard to Pakistan. And McCain recently had to disown comments by Sarah Palin, in which she expressed the same sentiment (albeit about Pakistan specifically) as the brother, Joe McCain, now has.

Joe made his gaffe at an event on Saturday in Loudoun County -- an event that's already drawn attention because Joe referred to northern Virginia Dem strongholds as "Communist country."

But the Bin Laden gaffe has gone unnoticed. Here's what Joe said, speaking of his brother and drawing applause:

"I do know that if he finds out where Osama is and I think we probably know, although I don't know personally -- he's just gonna go up to that country and say, `you have a murderer of thousands of Americans. I hope you help us get him. If not, just stand back, because we're coming in after him.' And that man will be brought to justice."

Here's audio:

The rub here is that McCain has repeatedly ridiculed Obama for declaring out loud what he'd do in such a situation, and has equated Obama's assertion that he'd pursue terrorists into Pakistan with a threat to invade and bomb that whole country. Now a prominent McCain surrogate has stated out loud that McCain would basically do the same thing to any country, ally or not.

No word yet from the McCain campaign on this.