Do Republicans think they could actually lose a seat in Texas, of all places?

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has taken another major step towards running for governor, The Hill reports, transferring nearly $8 million from her federal account into a state fund. Hutchison has also left the door open to resigning later this year, way ahead of the gubernatorial election itself. And John Cornyn, as both her co-Senator and as head of the NRSC, has been asking her not to do this, as it would set up a special election that could potentially give the Democrats their 60th seat.

One Texas Republican source seemed surprisingly concerned, telling Election Central that the state Dems are "going through a bit of a renaissance," and have two decent candidates lined up for the eventual Senate race in Houston Mayor Bill White and former Comptroller John Sharp.

"If Sharp and Bill White come back, there will be national Democratic Party money put back in Texas, and I think Republicans are gonna have to be on their A-game," the source said. "And that's something we will always fight to achieve, but gone are the days when Democrats would put up sort of B-team officials."

Read more »

Here's this morning's rundown on the Congressional race: Economic insecurities are taking a greater and greater role in the Congressional races, with candidates giving their responses to corporate malpractice -- or being accused of it themselves.

DCCC Shelling Out Big Money
The DCCC dropped a cool $1.75 million on ads in 15 House races yesterday, flexing their cash advantage over the Republicans. One expenditure seriously stands out: Nearly half a million dollars to defend freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), who faces a very tough rematch against former Congressman Jeb Bradley.

Gordon Smith Facing More Pressure On Hiring Illegal Immigrants
The Willamette Week has intensified its reporting on the hiring of illegal immigrants by the family business of Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), which Smith has called a "hatchet-job." Now the paper has upped the ante, with on-the-record testimonials from illegal immigrants who have themselves worked at the Smith Frozen Foods plant.

Read more »

This is fun: A campaign staffer for a leading GOP Senator has been busted posting fake posts on liberal blogs under an alias.

Burnt Orange Report, the premier state-level liberal blog in Texas, has discovered that commenter "Buck Smith" -- who claimed in the site's comments to be a liberal and who was critical of Texas Democrats and their candidates -- was in fact none other than David Beckwith, a top Texas Republican operative who works for GOP Sen. John Cornyn.

What makes this story funny is the way this joker managed to get himself caught.

Read more »

A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:

• In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.

• In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.

• In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.

• In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.

• The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.

Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.

In a sign that the Senate Republicans could be in danger in even states usually deemed safe for them, a new Rasmussen poll of Texas finds that Sen. John Cornyn (R) could very well have a race on his hands against Democrat Rick Noriega, a state Representative and Iraq War veteran:

Cornyn (R) 47%
Noriega (D) 43%

Sample size: 500 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%

Noriega will have his work cut out for him, though -- the latest FEC reports show Noriega with only about $300,000 cash on hand, compared to the incumbent's $8.6 million cash on hand.

Democrat Mikal Watts, a wealthy trial lawyer and a candidate against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), has pulled out of the race today. National Democrats had hoped that Watts would tap into his large personal finances to make a credible run against Cornyn, who has lackluster approval ratings in an otherwise deeply red state.

Watts' decision effectively cedes the nomination to state Rep. Rick Noriega (D), a Lt. Colonel in the Texas National Guard.

(Via Burnt Orange Report.)

It's only 2007, but a Senate seat has already opened up for 2012. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), who was easily re-elected last year for a third term, has announced that she won't seek a fourth term five years from now.

Hutchison could potentially leave earlier than that, as well, as she is considering a run for governor in 2010.

A new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by Daily Kos, shows Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) ahead of Democratic candidate Rick Noriega 51%-35%. On the surface this looks encouraging, in that the incumbent just barely breaks 50% support against an unknown opponent, and has an anemic re-elect number of 40%, with 35% wanting somebody else.

On the other hand, one has to wonder if Texas is a Republican counterpart to New Jersey, where the voters routinely dislike their politicians but nevertheless continue to re-elect Democratic incumbents. Even if Texas Republicans are unpopular, could they still win?

The district of Dem Chet Edwards, which is home to President Bush's Crawford ranch and is one of the few Dem seats being eyed for a possible pickup by Republicans, now appears to be edging out of the GOP's reach. CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Edwards and GOP challenger Van Taylor from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored." The GOP "early on touted Taylor as one of their strongest challengers," CQ says. "But...Republicans are concentrating heavily on shoring up their many vulnerable incumbents, and much less on targeting Democratic incumbents such as Edwards."