Gallup is just out with the most fine-grained polling analysis I've seen yet on whether Obama's "small town" comments have hurt him, and it finds that the answer for now is No.
Gallup looked at the support Obama has among the constituencies he was referring to in his remarks, and found that his backing has dropped among them slightly, but by statistically insignificant amounts. Gallup found:
* Among Democratic voters who make $24,000 or less, Obama's support has dropped three points, from 47%-44%.
* Among Democratic voters with no college education, his support has dropped one point, from 41%-40%.
* Among Democratic voters who say they are worried about money, his support has dropped two points, from 55%-53%.
* Among Democratic voters who say religion is an important part of their lives, his support dropped one point, from 49%-48%.
Gallup's conclusion: "It certainly appears that, as of April 14 interviewing, Obama's remarks have not hurt him -- either among the Democratic electorate as a whole or among the Democratic constituencies Obama was referring to."
One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday. It would certainly count for something if the Hillary campaign succeeds in swinging some three percent of the vote with the comments.
But the above polling suggests this might not happen. Either way, we won't know for certain until the votes are counted -- and the exit polls are in.
Late Update: Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a slight contraction in Obama's national lead, from 11 points down to eight. We'll find out over the next few days whether this was just noise and Obama's lead expands again, or whether Clinton can make real inroads thanks to the "small town" comments.