Check out the new ad from Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich, who has managed to run about even in the polls against scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Ted Stevens in this deep-red state, where Democrats usually aren't competitive in Congressional races.

The ad accomplishes two main goals for the Alaska Dems: It introduces Begich to voters in a positive way -- and subtly reminds people of Stevens' personal scandals:

Begich says how he's made all his finances public, so the people can know what he's up to. "But it's not that way in Washington, DC," Begich says. "It's time to end the secret deals for special interests, and the special favors for elected officials."

Obama Will Deliver Acceptance Speech At Football Stadium
The Obama campaign is expected to announce this week that the candidate will deliver his acceptance speech outside of the Democratic convention itself, a plan first floated late last week. The speech will be given at Denver's Invesco Field, which holds 76,000 people -- a stunning audience size for an American political gathering. (Late Update: The convention's organizing committee has just put out a press release officially announcing Invesco Field as the site of Obama's speech.)

Candidates To Discuss The Economy Today
The economy will dominate today's campaigning, with Barack Obama visiting North Carolina to propose a second economic stimulus package. John McCain will be in Denver to pitch his own jobs plan, hoping to hold on to a state that has historically voted Republican but is trending Democratic very quickly.

McCain Camp Hires New Political Director
John McCain's campaign reorganization has resulted in the hiring of a new political director -- a role that was previously absent entirely from the campaign. The campaign has hired Mike DuHaime, who previously worked as Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager.

McCain Could Have Convention Problems With Conservative Activists
John McCain could face some friction with hard-line conservative activists at the St. Paul convention, as the party sets about rewriting the largely-symbolic party platform in order to remove references to President Bush and reshape it as McCain's official agenda. "Our job is to make sure that the grass roots continue to have a say," said Eagle Forum executive director Jessica Echard.

CQ: Most Vulnerable House Seats Are All GOP
In a further sign of just how bad things are for the House Republicans, CQ says that the top five seats most likely to switch control are all open Republican-held seats. The seats are currently held by: Vito Fossella of New York, Jerry Weller of Illinois, Rick Renzi of Arizona, Tom Davis of Virginia, and Jim Walsh of New York.

Senate Dem Incumbents Flush With Cash
Roll Call reports that Senate Democrats have found themselves in an interesting quandary: Nearly all their incumbents up for election this year are considered safe, and collectively they have more than $50 million on hand. Much of that money can be transferred to the DSCC or to other candidates, thus adding to the party' overall infrastructure -- but for now, many of them are sitting on it.

Here's yet another variation of the GOP-pushed tall tale that China and Cuba are drilling for oil off American shores.

This latest one comes courtesy of GOP Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire, who has trailed Democratic opponent Jeanne Shaheen by wide margins in all the polls, and who by our count is the eighth GOPer to push this silly myth.

Sununu's version: He's dropped the China part from the tale -- now it's the Cubans who are supposedly doing the oil drilling.

Read more »

Spoof or goof?

Sen. Jim DeMint, a very right-wing South Carolina Republican up for re-election in 2010, might want to hire some new people to do his campaign Web site -- the current one links to a YouTube of a homemade comedy sketch stereotyping gays.

The Palmetto Scoop discovered that DeMint's site has a link at the bottom to their Webmaster, a company called Under The Power Lines:

Clicking through on the company's link then takes the reader to a YouTube channel featuring three guys who do dirty comedy, with the current top entry about an effeminate gay man literally coming out of the closet:

Late Update: Well, that was quick. DeMint's campaign has hastily changed the link to the right one, another organization called Under The Power Lines that actually built their site.

This is fun: A campaign staffer for a leading GOP Senator has been busted posting fake posts on liberal blogs under an alias.

Burnt Orange Report, the premier state-level liberal blog in Texas, has discovered that commenter "Buck Smith" -- who claimed in the site's comments to be a liberal and who was critical of Texas Democrats and their candidates -- was in fact none other than David Beckwith, a top Texas Republican operative who works for GOP Sen. John Cornyn.

What makes this story funny is the way this joker managed to get himself caught.

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In yet another sign that the GOP knows it could be facing more disastrous and widespread losses in the Congressional races this fall, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell openly declared yesterday that it is "impossible" for the party to regain the Senate this year:

McConnell has in the past said it was highly unlikely for the party to win the Senate, but we don't think he's ever gone so far as to say "impossible." So, how should Republicans feel about a party leader admitting defeat this early?

"Leader McConnell was voicing his opinion about the upcoming Senate races," NRSC spokesman John Randall told Election Central via e-mail. "He was not admitting defeat but explaining the current situation."

Indeed he was.

A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:

• In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.

• In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.

• In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.

• In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.

• The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.

Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.

Democrats got a bit of bad news yesterday in the Maine Senate race, when the secretary of state overruled the Maine Democratic Party's bid to challenge left-wing independent candidate Herbert Hoffman's ballot petitions.

Hoffman, whose anti-war platform could potentially win votes that would have otherwise gone to Democrat Tom Allen, was found to have 38 valid signatures more than were necessary to get on the ballot.

Incumbent Republican Susan Collins has led Allen in all the polls, but the most recent survey from Rasmussen found it to be turning into a single-digit race.

Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith's campaign makes an interesting claim in its latest ad: That the Republican incumbent who came out publicly against the Iraq War just after the 2006 elections was in fact "one of the first to stand up to George Bush and other Republicans to end this war," a questionable claim clearly meant to boost his image in this liberal anti-war state:

Obviously, a whole lot of other people were against the war well before November 2006 -- and Smith himself voted for the war in 2002 and remained a supporter for four years. As senior Oregon political columnist Jeff Mapes points out, the ad "might have been accurate if she called Smith one of the first Republicans to oppose the war."

"Sen. Smith is proud to have been one of the first Republicans to advocate an end to the war in Iraq," Smith campaign spokesperson Lindsay Gilbride told Election Central via e-mail. "Regardless of the political season, he will continue working with his colleagues on both sides of the aisle to advance our national security, strengthen our economy and promote energy independence."

This is really funny. Did GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, who's in a really tough fight to hold on to his key Minnesota Senate seat, digitally fake an appearance of domesticity between himself and his wife for an ad?

That's what is being said about this new spot -- and the campaign is strongly denying the allegation:

Something does seem to be off here, in terms of the camera perspective on Laurie Coleman, who is known to spend most of her time in California and not Minnesota or D.C. It sure seems like she and Norm were taped from different camera angles. And she's much more brightly lit, with no lighting spillover onto the countertop.

Coleman is in a tough race with Al Franken in this blue state, so it would make sense to pitch him as a regular guy -- and potentially even more damaging if it turned out to be faked.

Coleman's campaign didn't respond to our inquiries, but they did give a statement to the St. Paul Pioneer-Press, promising that Norm and Laurie were in the same kitchen.

"These left-wing, liberal, Al Franken bloggers are as goofy a bunch as I've ever seen," the campaign's spokesperson said. "They've spent the entire morning concocting a conspiracy theory, wasting valuable bandwidth on the Internet."

Still looks kind of fishy to us.

Late Update: Hmm, this might actually be legit. The Coleman campaign has given a right-wing site a short piece of outtake footage from the shoot, which is in much higher quality and lacking the distorted look of the final product.

Here's yet another indication that national Republicans think they're seriously at risk of losing a key Senate seat in deep red Mississippi: President Bush is set to visit the state on July 1, for a fundraising event with appointed Sen. Roger Wicker, the Tupelo Daily Journal reports.

Recent polls have shown a close race between Wicker and Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove, a former one-term governor -- even though Bush won the state by a 60%-40% margin back in 2004.

This visit tells us two things. First, that Republicans are genuinely worried about this seat and are moving to build up their financial advantage -- and given the state's deep conservatism, a loss here would be devastating. Second, there is at least one state left where a Republican would actually want Bush to visit on his behalf.

As we noted the other day, GOP Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon touched off a firestorm of outrage last week -- not to mention some serious puzzlement -- when he compared opposition to gay marriage to the persecution of his polygamous Mormon ancestors. We even tried to get in touch with Smith's office in order to find out exactly what he meant by that, but they kept silent.

Well, now Smith has apologized, saying he did not mean to compare gay relationships to polygamy.

"If you'd grown up a Mormon, and spent your life trying to get out from the shadow of that legacy -- it's an emotional scar that you carry," Smith told the Oregonian. "I meant no offense by sharing that part of my history."

Good thing he cleared that up.

In what is shaping up as a plum pickup opportunity for Senate Dems in a very unlikely place, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell could be in for a very serious race this fall, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of Kentucky.

The numbers: McConnell 50%, Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford 46%, within the ±4% margin of error. A Rasmussen poll from a few weeks ago gave Lunsford the lead, coming right off of his primary victory.

McConnell has had the unenviable task of defending President Bush's Iraq positions on a daily basis. If the political environment turns out to be such that the Democrats can win this one, then the GOP will start finding it very difficult to prevent the Dems from getting a 60-seat majority.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota has some bad news for Al Franken -- and for Senate Democrats, who are hoping to pick up a Senate seat in this blue state.

The numbers: Coleman 52%, Franken 40%, well outside of the ±4% margin of error. If former Gov. Jesse Ventura were to enter the race as an independent, the numbers would be Coleman 41%, Franken 31%, and Ventura 23%. The two-way matchup is not significantly changed from their last poll from a month and a half ago, which had it at Coleman 52%, Franken 42%.

Other recent polls have shown the race to be closer than this, but they too give Coleman the lead. It looks like Coleman is definitely ahead -- with Franken having been hurt by controversies surrounding his finances and his sexually-explicit humor -- with the question being just how big Coleman's margin currently is.

This has to be one of the strangest things we've seen in some time.

Take a look at this video of Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon -- a Republican who has supported both the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment and anti-discrimination laws and domestic partner benefits -- struggling pretty hard to clarify his position on gay marriage and equal rights for individuals.

Smith appeared to be likening discrimination against gays to the persecution faced by his Mormon ancestors for their views on marriage:

Smith:

"Part of what I fear, as you start defining marriage -- we have a long history of doing that in this country, and my Mormon pioneer ancestors were the victims of that. They were literally driven from the United States in the dead of winter for following their religious beliefs. I don't want that coming back."

Huh?

We're still not entirely sure what Smith's position is on gay marriage, or how exactly it relates to the persecution of Mormons over a century ago. Unsurprisingly, calls and e-mails to his office asking for clarification yesterday were not returned.

Wow, this one really spells trouble for the GOP this fall -- the guy in charge of the party's Senate races just basically wrote off the Republicans' chances in two of their five open seats.

At yesterday's Christian Science Monitor forum -- the same venue where he upgraded the GOP's goal to a potential three-seat loss -- NRSC chairman John Ensign was asked point-blank if the party was giving up on the open seats they currently hold in Virginia and New Mexico, where the Democratic nominees are way ahead of the Republicans in current polling.

Ensign said bluntly: "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win."

Al Franken is continuing to make it a close race for Senate in Minnesota, with a new Rasmussen poll giving incumbent Republican Norm Coleman a narrow 48%-45% edge, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

One potential wild card is whether former Gov. Jesse Ventura enters the race, which would hurt Franken -- a three-way match would give Coleman 39%, Franken 32%, and Ventura 24%.

Franken has been hurt recently by controversies surrounding his personal finances and sexually-explicit comedy routines he'd written, but has in his favor the fact that he's running in a good year for Democrats, and in a state that is likely to go for Barack Obama by a wide margin.

A recent ad blitz by GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who has become a target of national Democrats in the normally red state of North Carolina, appears to be paying off. A new Rasmussen poll shows Dole taking a huge 53%-39% lead over her Democratic challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan.

A Rasmussen poll from a month ago gave Hagan a one-point lead in the wake of her primary victory. Since then, however, Hagan has not gone back up on the air, while Dole has run two different statewide ads in the last two weeks.

The Republican Senator in charge of the party's coordinated effort this Fall has clarified exactly what their goal is: It would be a "terrific night" to lose three seats.

"I think it would be a great night, especially, [to lose] three seats -- that would be a terrific night for us, absolutely," NRSC chairman John Ensign told a lunch hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "I don't want to slip below the four-seat loss -- that's kind of where we set our absolute worst goal, is to be down to 45 seats."

Ensign took some heat a few days ago when he set the GOP's goal at only losing eight seats or less -- which would put Dems ahead in the Senate 59-41 as a worst case scenario for the GOP.

So Ensign has now gone from a worst-case goal of 59-41 to 55-45. Does this mean things are improving?

There are only two Dem Senate seats that have been seen to be at all vulnerable -- Louisiana and New Jersey -- and now a new poll finds that New Jersey may be on its way to being safe.

The new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey shows incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP nominee Dick Zimmer 47%-38%, much better for Lautenberg than a Rasmussen survey from two days ago that had the race as a statistical tie.

If Lautenberg is in fact in good shape politically, then the Senate Dems can be confident of going into this Fall with hardly any weak spots.

Democrats just got some good news in the Oregon Senate race, with an independent candidate who might have siphoned votes from the Democratic nominee now deciding to drop out of the race, leaving the Dem free to focus all his energy on taking out vulnerable incumbent Gordon Smith.

The liberal candidacy by John Frohnmayer, a former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts, might have eaten into support for Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley, who has narrowly trailed Smith in the most recent polls. With the race whittled down to two candidates now in a state that is likely to be carried by Barack Obama, the Dems' chances are now helped by them not having to worry about a third-party spoiler affecting the outcome.

In a year where they're expected to pick up a bunch of Senate seats, Democrats might just have a tough seat to defend in a blue state, a new Rasmussen poll in New Jersey finds.

The poll has incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who just won his Democratic primary against challenger Rob Andrews, in a statistical tie with GOP nominee Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman. Lautenberg gets 45% to Zimmer's 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.

On the other hand, New Jersey has a long tradition of close poll numbers between two candidates, with voters disliking both choices but ultimately breaking for the Dem. That pattern held true in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the 2006 Senate race, with Democrats winning both by decent margins.

That said, this one might be worth keeping an eye on.

In a further sign that Republican hopes are fading badly, the head of the Senate GOP's campaign committee has set a new goal for the party this Fall: Not to lose too many Senate seats.

NRSC chair John Ensign has moved the goal posts, according to the Savannah Morning News, saying that the GOP will have succeeded if they don't lose more than eight seats.

Ensign pointed out that if the Dems win nine seats they'll get to the filibuster-proof magic number of 60 -- at which point, Ensign warned, "they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."

So if the Dems can't get to a 60-seat super-majority, the GOP will have won. Talk about lowering the bar.