The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee continues to hold a strong cash advantage over their Republican counterparts, Roll Call reports, and it's only getting bigger.

The DSCC raised $4.1 million and spent $2.1 million for the month of November, and has $25.5 million cash on hand. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, on the other hand, only brought in $2.3 million and spent $1.4 million, and has $10.4 million on hand.

The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that Kentucky state Auditor Crit Luallen, who was being recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is telling party leaders that she has decided not to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) next year. Additionally, outgoing state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who was exploring a campaign, is now expressing a desire to return to the state legislature instead.

The news leaves Democrats without a top flight challenger to put McConnell on the defensive. Louisville attorney Andrew Horne, an Iraq veteran who lost the Democratic primary in Kentucky's Third Congressional District to now-Rep. John Yarmuth in 2006, says that he will consider running if Luallen makes her decision final.

Late Update: Luallen issued a statement today saying that she has "no plans" to enter the race.

Will 2008 be another big year for the Democrats? According to a new analysis by CQ Politics, the prospect of a Democratic sweep of Congress next year is becoming an "inescapable 'morning line' assumption" on both sides of the aisle in Washington.

"Every traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the 'over/under' balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more," says CQ.

Late Update: For an in-depth look at the state of play, check out CQ's updated House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has announced today that he will seek re-election in 2008, ending rumors that he was leaning towards retirement.

The news is a disappointment to Senate Democrats, who had hoped to make a serious play for Cochran's open seat.

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D-NE) said today that he will not run for the seat of retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), giving Senate Democrats their second dose of disappointment from Nebraska after former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) decided not to run last month.

Fahey was seen as a credible candidate, and his decision likely makes the GOP more favored to retain the open seat. Rancher Scott Kleeb (D), who ran a competitive House campaign in the state's most conservative turf in 2006, is still considering the race.

New Mexico political columnist Heath Hausaman reports that Congressman Tom Udall (D) has informed party leaders that he will run for the Senate, and will announce his decision within the next two weeks. Udall would be seeking the seat of GOP Senator Pete Domenici, who is retiring.

Udall had previously backed out of the race, then informed party leaders that he was reconsidering it. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, a centrist, is already in the race.

Polling has consistently shown Udall defeating the two Republican candidates, Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, by wide margins.

Late Update: It's official. Udall's chief of staff has confirmed the news with the Associated Press.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's new Web ad against Mitch McConnell shows that they might be serious about mounting a challenge against the Senate Minority Leader. And what's more, DSCC spokesman Matt Miller told the Herald-Leader that the DSCC is considering buying air time to show it on Kentucky TV:

Successfully taking on McConnell would be for the Democrats a revenge of sorts against the Republicans for 2004, when they defeated then-Senate Dem Leader Tom Daschle.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), who has been the subject of retirement rumors in recent weeks, has still not decided if he will seek a sixth term in 2008, but is telling local media that he will announce his plans in "a few weeks."

Republicans maintain that Tuesday night's re-election of Gov. Haley Barbour (R) underlines Mississippi's Republican trend, but Democrats have a bench of former statewide office holders here and would like to mount a serious challenge for Cochran's seat should it open up.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN yesterday that the Iraq War is "winding down," and it won't be a factor in the 2008 race.

"The war is winding down," he said. "Next year's election is going to be about this Congress and what it failed to do."

McConnell cited recent reports of lower death tolls, and predicted "fewer and fewer troops in Iraq, fewer and fewer casualties, more and more ... return to normalcy."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has a new pair of 60-second ads set to go on TV tomorrow — one for each of Kentucky's media markets — extolling the incumbent's virtues.

Going up on the air this early is a sign that McConnell is taking his re-election effort seriously, even though he doesn't yet have any official opponent. Outgoing state attorney general Greg Stumbo is exploring the race, while some Democrats are trying to recruit state Auditor Crit Luallen, who was re-elected by a landslide this week.

The ads compare McConnell to the late Kentucky Senator Alben Barkley, who served as the Democratic Leader during the New Deal era and became Harry Truman's vice president, and even feature the support of Barkley's grandson.

Here's the Louisville version:

The Lexington version can be seen after the jump.

Read more »

Research 2000 has released a new poll, commissioned by the Daily Kos, showing Congressman Tom Udall to be the strongest Democrat for the open Senate seat in New Mexico:

Wilson (R) 45%, Chávez (D) 42%
Wilson (R) 44%, Denish (D) 43%
Udall (D) 55%, Wilson (R) 38%
Pearce (R) 40%, Chávez (D) 39%
Denish (D) 45%, Pearce (R) 39%
Udall (D) 54%, Pearce (R) 37%

Udall had previously passed on the race, but recently informed party leaders that he was giving the race another look.

Lt. Governor Diane Denish has already announced that she is not running, and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez is already threatening a rough primary if Udall gets in.

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D) has promised Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Chuck Schumer that he'll take the next "4 to 6 weeks" to consider running for the open seat of retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) next year, but that it's "unlikely" that he'll enter the race against former Gov. Mike Johanns (R).

A Fahey candidacy is the "Plan B" for Senate Democrats, who had hoped that former Sen. Bob Kerrey would enter the race.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, who has already declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Senate, is fuming after national and local Dems have attempted to recruit Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) to enter the primary against him.

“This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t,” Chávez told Roll Call. “The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election.”

This comes only days after Chávez praised Udall as a "great congressman" in a conference call with local progressive bloggers, and adding that he would attempt to mimic Udall's voting record in Congress: “If you look issue by issue I doubt you’ll find much difference ... You will find that we will vote together almost all the time.”

A new round of Senate polls from SurveyUSA, commissioned by Roll Call, show the Republicans in serious trouble for the 2008 Senate races.

In Oregon, Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is ahead but under 50% against two Democrats, leading state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 48%-39%, and leading Democratic activist Steve Novick 45%-39%.

In Minnesota, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is statistically tied with both his Democratic opponents, with a one-point 46%-45% lead against Al Franken, and a 44%-44% tie against attorney and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi.

For the open seat in New Mexico, Republican Representatives Steve Pearce and Heath Wilson both trail Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, with Chávez at 48%-43% against Pearce and 48%-44% against Wilson. This is a turnaround from earlier polls that showed Chávez to be a weak Democratic nominee. Dem Congressman Tom Udall, who is also looking at the race, was not polled.

In the open-seat race in Virginia, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner leads former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore 57%-35%, and leads former Senator George Allen — who has not indicated that he would run — by a 52%-42% margin.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen by a 53%-42% margin.

The Republicans' only bright spot is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads Dem Congressman Tom Allen 55%-38%.

Late Update: In another poll result I missed before, Democrats are also ahead in the open-seat race in Colorado, with Dem Congressman Mark Udall leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer 48%-41%.

A new Rasmussen poll in Kentucky finds Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) polling under 50% against two well-known Democrats.

Against state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, McConnell is ahead 48%-41%. McConnell leads state Auditory Crit Luallen 49%-39%. Although McConnell is ahead, a four-term incumbent should normally be expected to poll at over 50%.

A key figure from the poll: Among respondents, 37% want the troops out of Iraq within the next year, and another 22% want them out immediately.

Stumbo lost in the Democratic primary this year for Lt. Governor, and is currently exploring the Senate race. Luallen is expected to be easily re-elected to her current position this Tuesday.

The news yesterday, that Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) is reconsidering his previous decision not to run for Senate, now appears to be getting even more serious.

New Mexico political columnist Heath Haussamen reports that multiple sources have confirmed that Udall is now actively putting together a campaign structure for a potential Senate run.

If he runs, Udall would be considered the favorite for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

"So the Senator who didn't think Halliburton's war profiteering was worth investigating is endorsing the candidate who wanted to put Bernie Kerik in charge of Homeland Security. Makes sense to us!"

— Andy Barr, campaign manager for Al Franken, responding in the Huffington Post to Senator Norm Coleman's endorsement of Rudy Giuliani.

Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) might just end up running for the Senate, after all. The Albuquerque Journal reports that Udall, who previously took himself out of the running for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici, has informed party leaders that he's giving the race another look.

No firm decision has been made that he will enter, but he would easily become the favorite to win the seat in the general election, according to current polling. The current Democratic frontrunner, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, has had a much more lackluster performance against the possible Republican nominees.

Fun fact: Udall's family has a strong political presence out West. His cousin Mark is a Democratic Congressman from Colorado who is running for an open Senate seat, and their Republican cousin Gordon Smith is seeking re-election as a Senator from Oregon. It's thus possible that three cousins could end up winning three simultaneous Senate races, in three different states and from both parties.

It looks like national Dems think there may really be an opening for a genuine effort to take out GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell.

The Huffington Post reports that DSCC chief Chuck Schumer revealed today that McConnell is a key target. "Sen. McConnell's numbers are not very good," Schumer said, adding that Dems "are going to go out and try to get a Democratic senator."

It's apparently the first time that Schumer has said publicly that the DSCC is seriously contemplating an effort to unseat McConnell -- something that reflects a growing desire among Dems to target the GOP congressional leadership in the same way Repubs won an upset victory over former minority leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) in 2004.

Is another GOP Senator about to announce his retirement? GOP sources are saying that Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) may be leaning towards quitting, with an official announcement of his plans set for early November.

Despite Mississippi's heavy Republican lean, national and local Democrats are hoping to take advantage of an open seat opportunity in the state. In particular, Democrats believe that Mike Moore, the state's popular Attorney General from 1988 to 2004 who earned national fame for his successful prosecution of tobacco companies, would be a formidable candidate.

A new candidate is set to enter the race for Senate in North Carolina, with Democratic state Senator Kay Hagan expected to announce her campaign.

An expert in North Carolina politics told The Hill that he does not expect the race to be competitive, but that Hagan's presence would force Dole and the Republicans to spend some money. On the other hand, Dole's approval ratings have been decidedly lackluster — the challenge Democrats face is to parlay that into a victory in a state likely to vote GOP in the presidential election.

Hagan had previously passed on the race, but national Democrats renewed their entreaties to her — possibly because it came to light that the only announced candidate, businessman Jim Neal, is openly gay.

A new internal poll in the New Mexico Senate race, conducted for Democratic candidate Martin Chávez's campaign, shows the Albquerque mayor statistically tied with Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson. According to Roll Call, the poll by Democratic firm Lake Research shows Chávez taking 41% to Wilson's 40%.

Among independents, the poll has Chávez leading 48%-30% — meaning the closeness of the race probably comes from Chávez not yet being able to completely nail down core Democratic support.

Another caveat, in addition to it being an internal poll: Numbers have not been released pitting Chávez against another major Republican candidate, Congressman Steve Pearce.

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could be in serious trouble over his steadfast support of President Bush. McConnell leads four potential Democratic opponents for his race in 2008, but is under 50% in all cases:

McConnell (R) 46%, Chandler (D) 41%
McConnell (R) 46%, Stumbo (D) 37%
McConnell (R) 45%, Luallen (D) 40%
McConnell (R) 45%, Horne (D) 34%

In addition, McConnell's approval rating is at only 45%, with a statistically tied 46% of respondents disapproving of his performance. Also, his favorable/unfavorable numbers are roughly tied with outgoing state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, and are far behind those of Congressman Ben Chandler and State Auditor Crit Luallen.

Stumbo is currently exploring the race, while Chandler appears to be waiting for the 2010 Senate election. Luallen could end up running, but first has to be re-elected to her current office on November 6, which appears likely.