We're now getting a better idea of John McCain's post-convention bounce, with most new polls showing the race either tied or with a narrow McCain lead:

• The new ABC/Washington Post poll gives McCain a 49%-47% lead among likely voters, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, just before the Democratic Convention began, Obama had a 49%-45% lead with likely voters. The internals find that McCain's pick of Sarah Palin has paid off with white women -- Obama led 50%-42% with this group before the conventions, but McCain has grabbed a 53%-41% lead now.

• The new CBS poll has McCain up 46%-44%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two and a half weeks ago, Obama had a 45%-42% lead.

• The new Hotline/Diageo poll has the race tied at 44% each. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 44%-40% lead.

It's clear that McCain has gotten a bigger convention bounce than Obama did, but convention bounces are themselves not exactly permanent things. They are the product of one candidate getting mostly positive coverage for a whole week -- and there are still eight weeks to go.

Today's polls confirm that John McCain is enjoying a post-convention bounce, though it might not be all that drastic in terms of the big picture:

• Today's Gallup poll has McCain again 49%-45%, outside the ±2% margin of error. McCain was down seven points in Gallup before his convention began -- but going back a bit further, he'd inched into a two-point lead just before the Democratic convention gave Barack Obama his own artificial bounce. In this sense, McCain's bounce has put him just ahead of where he started before the conventions.

• Today's Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead 48%-47%, with a ±2% margin of error. McCain trailed by around five points before the Republican Convention, and the two candidates were about even right before the Democratic Convention.

• The new CNN poll, on the other hand, presents a different story. They have the race tied at 48%-48% each. Right before the Dem Convention, they put the race at a 47%-47% tie, and after the Dem gathering it was only an insignificant 49%-48% lead for Obama. So CNN never really had much of an Obama bounce, and they don't have a McCain bounce, either.

Bear in mind that McCain's convention bounce could turn out to be just as ephemeral as Obama's was -- given that such bounces are a product of one candidate dominating news coverage for a whole week.

Some eye-opening national numbers from Survey USA, based on polling on Friday, shows McCain in the lead on key issues like Iraq, health care, and energy independence.

* On the question of who has the better plan for Iraq, it's McCain 55%, Obama 41% -- despite multiple polls showing solid majorities agreeing with Obama on withdrawal.

* On the question of who has the better plan for energy independence, it's McCain 54%, Obama 42%.

* On the question of who has the better plan for health care, it's McCain 46%, Obama 45%.

* McCain is seen as stronger on education, 50%-45%.

Obama does hold a nine point lead on who's stronger on the environment, 49%-41%. But somewhat ominously, more respondents (49%) say they'd bet that McCain will win the election than say Obama will (44%).

These results are almost certainly ephemeral, but they do suggest a successful convention for McCain.

Late Update: A good take from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com on the post-convention polling.

John McCain is officially enjoying a nice convention bounce in the new tracking polls, with a tie in one poll and a lead in the other.

The latest numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 48%. Obama was ahead by five points in this poll before the Republican Convention.

And here are the new figures from Gallup: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. Obama was ahead by around seven points in this tracker before the GOP Convention began.

These are both three-day tracking polls, with two days' worth of sampling from after McCain's acceptance speech. Tomorrow we'll be getting polls that are taken completely after the end of the convention.

Okay, the McCain-Walter Reed Middle School backdrop debacle is getting weirder by the second. Now the principal of the school is hammering McCain for using footage of the school during his convention speech without seeking the school's permission.

Here's the statement from Donna Tobin, the principal...

"It has been brought to the school's attention that a picture of the front of our school, Walter Reed Middle School, was used as a backdrop at the Republican National Convention. Permission to use the front of our school for the Republican National Convention was not given by our school nor is the use of our school's picture an endorsement of any political party or view."

One other interesting development: The California Democratic Party is actually holding a press conference in front of the school within minutes, where Dems will hit McCain for not knowing the difference between the school and Walter Reed Medical Center, which is believed to be the backdrop the McCain campaign really wanted.

Though multiple news organizations are asking for clarification, the McCain campaign is still refusing to comment on questions about whether it had hoped to use the medical center as a backdrop and accidentally used the school instead. Hard to blame them...

Late update: Shortly after posting this, we got an email from Los Angeles Unified School District Board Member Tamar Galatzan who represents Walter Reed as part of her district. She had her own thoughts on McCain's use of the middle school:

"Though I am flattered that Senator McCain chose to use a school from my district as backdrop to his remarks at the Republican National Convention, I wished he had checked with me first. As a strong believer in public education, I don't think the Senator is the most appropriate person to showcase one of the premier schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District. He is unwilling to bring fairness and equity to No Child Left Behind and ensure that schools like Reed get the resources they need from the Federal Government. From what I've heard, that's not a priority for the McCain/Palin ticket."

Nielsen's detailed ratings on McCain's speech last night are now available, and they're eye-opening. McCain's speech was watched by half a million more than Obama's was...

More than 38.9 million people tuned in for coverage of the final night of the GOP convention. In comparison, Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democrats' convention drew 38.4 million viewers.

For the third night in a row, more Women (19.2 million) than men (17.9 million) tuned in to the RNC coverage. Still, McCain's speech drew significantly more men than Obama's acceptance speech (16.2 million). In contrast, Obama drew more women (19.9 million) than McCain (19.2 million).

White viewers also flocked to their TV's for McCain's speech (32.2 million vs. 27 million for Obama). But among African Americans, the reverse was true: 7.5 million African Americans watched Obama's speech last week, while just 3.1 million tuned in for McCain's speech.

And here's a fun factoid: More women watched Obama's speech (19.9 million) than watched Sarah Palin's (19.5 million) last night, which is perhaps understandable given that Obama is the top guy and Palin is in the number two slot.

Also, you have to imagine that Palin's presence on the GOP ticket helped boost McCain's female audience, which checked in at a pretty high 19.2 million.

John McCain might just be starting to get a convention bounce in the wake of Sarah Palin's fiery convention speech, according to today's tracking polls -- though he still trails Barack Obama for now.

Today's Rasmussen number: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, when all the sampling predated Palin's speech, Obama was ahead 50%-45%.

Today's Gallup number: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-42%.

These three-day tracking polls include one day of samples from after Palin's speech, but they entirely predate McCain's address last night, which was on the lackluster side in comparison with Palin's effort. It won't be until Monday that we get polls that are completely made up of data from after the Republican convention.

As you know, we've been digging into the mystery of why McCain had an image of Walter Reed Middle School in the background during the first few minutes of his convention speech last night.

A bunch of you have speculated that the intention was actually to use Walter Reed Medical Center but that someone goofed and pulled the school image instead. The school is right now being deluged by media requests, we're told.

Meanwhile, here's another fun wrinkle: It turns out that the building behind McCain was also used as the backdrop for Matt Santos' announcement of his presidential candidacy on The West Wing.

Take a look:

Meanwhile, it looks as if it was footage of the school that was used in the background of McCain's speech, not a still image. More in a bit.

As many of you know, one of the odder aspects of McCain's speech last night was the image of an unidentified mansion-like building on the big screen in the background behind him.

The image first appeared behind McCain around a minute into his speech, and stayed up for four or five minutes. It then faded out and was replaced by a plain blue background with an American flag.

So what was the mansion? TPM readers dug into the mystery and discovered that it looks like the Walter Reed Middle School in North Holllywood, California. And it turns out that this is exactly what the image was.

TPM's Kate Klonick just got off the phone with an official at the school who confirmed this. "We didn't know anything about it until it showed up last night," Cathy McLaughlin, the school's office technician, told Klonick. She confirmed that multiple media outlets have been calling and that a statement would be forthcoming from the school.

There was nothing particular in that stretch of McCain's speech that would explain why this particular image was used.

So what happened? A number of TPM readers have suggested a possible explanation: The McCain team actually wanted to use imagery of Walter Reed Medical Center in the background. But someone pulled up this image instead.

We're working to find out exactly what happened. Stay tuned.

Late Update: The school raps McCain for using image without permission.

Late Late Update: The story hits CNN and MSNBC.

A new SurveyUSA poll taken after Sarah Palin's big speech last night suggests that she went a long way in reassuring independent voters about her fitness as a candidate.

A solid 57% of independents give her speech an "A" grade, and 56% say she is an asset to the campaign while only 27% call her a liability. In a poll released just before her speech, when she was in the midst of the tabloid coverage of her family problems, only 43% of independents called her an asset and 44% said she was a liability.

Unfortunately, this poll doesn't tell us much about the horse race -- a respondent can say she's a solid campaigner and still intend to vote against her. But it does tell us that the worst effects of her initial press coverage could be behind her, as we all head into the final weeks of the general election.

That is actually the real life headline running on top of an Associated Press story moving right now, just before John McCain's big speech tonight.

No joke. The AP story is here.

The story itself actually doesn't say this. It's an analysis that points out, quite accurately, that the GOP is using McCain's POW past as a shield against any and all legit criticism. The story also points out that this is at odds with the constant claim that McCain is "reticent" to discuss that past.

But the AP had to slap on a McCain-fluffing headline about his "hero aura." Couldn't just have a hed that told us what the analysis actually said.

What can one say at this point?

Here's the first round of excerpts from McCain's speech tonight -- they feature as direct a reference as you could possibly want to McCain's service, and Obama's lack of it:

"I'm very proud to have introduced our next Vice President to the country. But I can't wait until I introduce her to Washington. And let me offer an advance warning to the old, big spending, do nothing, me first, country second Washington crowd: change is coming."

"The constant partisan rancor that stops us from solving these problems isn't a cause, it's a symptom. It's what happens when people go to Washington to work for themselves and not you. Again and again, I've worked with members of both parties to fix problems that need to be fixed. That's how I will govern as President. I will reach out my hand to anyone to help me get this country moving again. I have that record and the scars to prove it. Senator Obama does not."

"I fell in love with my country when I was a prisoner in someone else's. I loved it not just for the many comforts of life here. I loved it for its decency; for its faith in the wisdom, justice and goodness of its people. I loved it because it was not just a place, but an idea, a cause worth fighting for. I was never the same again. I wasn't my own man anymore. I was my country's."

"I loved it not just for the many comforts of life here" seems to hint at a contrast between McCain's suffering and a pampered "celeb" lifestyle enjoyed by Obama. Maybe we're a tad paranoid at this point and that isn't what it's about at all. But given the tenor of the previous paragraph, it sure sounds like it.

Sarah Palin's speech last night was a ratings hit, with an estimated 37 million viewers according to Nielsen ratings of the major broadcast and cable news networks. That's just shy of Nielsen's figure of 38 million people who watched Barack Obama's speech last week on those same outlets.

We don't know yet how may viewers will be persuaded into McCain's camp by the speech -- likely it was made up of a large number who were already for him or already against him. But no matter what, she's made a big impression on the voting public.

Here it is: The bio video of Sarah Palin that was supposed to air at the Republican convention last night before her speech.

You should watch it. The video, which was leaked (surprisingly) to Fox News, gives us a glimpse into how the Republicans were planning to sell a soft-focus version of Palin's life as a soft-peddled intro into the harsh, partisan, and undeniably successful speech that followed:

So why didn't America get to see this last night? We speculated here yesterday that Rudy, who spoke just before Palin's speech, ran long, forcing the convention planners to nix the video (and another intervening speaker) to get Palin onto the stage in time.

We went back and checked the GOP convention schedule. Rudy was supposed to start speaking at 10 P.M., followed by another speaker, followed by the video, and followed Palin's speech. All that was supposed to be wrapped up by 11 P.M.

Rudy actually started speaking at 10:01, right on time. He kept talking all the way until 10:28. Palin came out a few minutes later, and ran past 11 P.M.

Bottom line: If Rudy had clammed up and gotten off the stage, they could have run the video.

To be clear, no Republicans I spoke to are upset about the vid not running; they're thrilled with how things went. But it seems clear to us that last night would have been more successful with the video: The bio intro would have taken the edge off the speech.

Rudy!

Late Update: We were right! Jonathan Martin confirms with a top convention planner that Rudy ran much longer than expected, forcing the nixing of the vid.

The Republican Convention has thus far shown no movement for John McCain in the national polls, according to the two major daily trackers.

Today's Rasmussen poll give Barack Obama a 50%-45% lead, outside of the ±2% margin of error and unchanged from Obama's 50%-45% lead the day before.

The Gallup poll gives Obama a 49%-42% lead, outside of their ±2% and in fact slightly better for Obama than the previous day's 49%-43% lead.

Bear in mind that neither of these three-day tracking polls include responses from after last night, which featured the fiery speeches from Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani. It should be a few more days before we get a real feel for how they've affected the race, along with John McCain's speech tonight.

Tonight: McCain's Acceptance Speech
John McCain will deliver his acceptance speech to the Republican convention tonight, laying out how he can overcome Obama's current lead in the polls with a combination of his biography and the issues. Perhaps his biggest challenge will be to get more applause than Sarah Palin's red-meat speech from last night.

Democrats Campaigning In Swing States Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, seeking to hold down a swing state that Dems have only won narrowly in recent elections. Joe Biden will be in Virginia Beach, talking about national security in a historically-red state that is up for grabs this time around. And Michelle Obama is in New Mexico, discussing economic issues that face military families.

Obama On O'Reilly Tonight
Fox News will be airing tonight an interview between Barack Obama and Bill O'Reilly, a sort of pre-rebuttal from the Democratic nominee against McCain's speech. This could be tricky, to have the Dem candidate going one on one against one of the biggest Republican pundits.

NYT: GOP Convention A Lot Whiter Than The Dems
The New York Times reports that 93% of the delegates to the Republican Convention are white, with five percent Hispanics and two percent blacks. By contrast, the Democratic Convention was 65% white, 23% black and 11% Hispanic.

Poll: GOP Easily Holding On To Open Missouri Seat
A new SurveyUSA poll finds that the Republicans are favored to hold on to their open House seat in Missouri, where incumbent Kenny Hulshof is running for governor. The poll has Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer with 50%, and Democrat Judy Baker at 38%, with John McCain carrying the district by a 60%-36% margin.

Reid Spokesman: He Always Stands Up In A Fight
Harry Reid spokesman Jim Manley has taken exception to a line from Sarah Palin's speech last night, in which she said Reid doesn't like John McCain because he's incapable of standing up to him. "Anyone who knows Senator Reid knows he never backs down when he's fighting for what's right and that he always stands up to John McCain when he is wrong," said Manley.

The Obama campaign's response to Sarah Palin's speech, from spokesperson Bill Burton, acknowledges its clearly successful delivery but seeks to highlight its slashing and partisan nature in hopes of taking the gloss off her a bit:

""The speech that Governor Palin gave was well delivered, but it was written by George Bush's speechwriter and sounds exactly like the same divisive, partisan attacks we've heard from George Bush for the last eight years. If Governor Palin and John McCain want to define 'change' as voting with George Bush 90% of the time, that's their choice, but we don't think the American people are ready to take a 10% chance on change."

The speech was harsh and negative but we highly doubt that it'll be received this way, and this suggests one reason she was chosen. McCain needed someone who could go on the attack while simultaneously striking an every-mom pose that might galvanize Republican women and perhaps appeal to aging white female Hillary voters while reinforcing McCain's efforts to cast himself as far more culturally in touch with ordinary Americans than Obama is.

With that in mind, this line from her speech seems worth dwelling on:

"I love those hockey moms. You know, they say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick."

McCain now has his pit bull -- with lipstick.

One thing that remains to be seen: Whether her strong personality, her obviously effective advocacy on McCain's behalf, and her clear attack-dog skills will do anything to allay concerns about whether she's qualified to be back-up commander-in-chief.

This was a nightmarish image we'd anticipated, and it happened: The GOP convention crowd, which is made up of people who have spent much of their adult lives in the grip of profound Hillary hatred, suddenly were able to reach deep inside themselves and find the magnanimity to cheer for her.

The moment came, as expected, with the evocation of Hillary's criticism of Obama during the primary. Rudy Giuliani, the speaker, said:

Tough times require strong leadership, and this is no time for on the job training.

It's about who can answer that crisis call at 3:00 in the morning -- yes, Hillary!

The crowd roared for what seemed like a solid half-minute.

A few quick highlights from the speeches given by Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee:

* Romney, clearly still in the grip of the idea that Palin could still be dumped and make way for him to step into the Veep slot, rolled out a well-trafficked GOP fib, saying that Dems never mentioned radical Jihad during the convention. In fact, Obama referred to terrorism and Osama at least five times during his speech alone.

* Romney, former guv of Massachusetts, bashed eastern elites.

* Romney claimed that we need change from the "liberal" Washington where Bush has been president for eight years and the GOP ran Congress until two years ago.

* Huckabee, in a crowd-pleaser, said Sarah Palin got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla than Joe Biden did for president. This gag strikes us as ill-advised, because it draws attention to the fact that Palin got all of 616 votes in her quest for a mayoralty that GOPers are touting as proof of her preparedness to be commander-in-chief.

* Huckabee falsely suggested Abraham Lincoln founded GOP.

All this, and Rudy hasn't even spoken yet!

The AFL-CIO is readying a major anti-McCain blitz timed to McCain's big convention night tomorrow, unleashing 10,000 volunteers that will deliver fliers hitting McCain to some 200,000 households in five battleground states during the convention's final festivities.

Here's a look at the flyer, which hasn't been released yet and boasts a heavy emphasis on kitchen-table and trade issues (click on the image to enlarge):

The flyer seeks to directly counter-program McCain's message tomorrow, which (aside from POW-POW-POWing) will seek to paint him as a reformer with a career of independence from the GOP and a history of bucking George W. Bush.

To that end, it hits McCain on a triumvirate of economic issues: Health care, NAFTA, and Social Security. It emphasizes McCain's 26 years in Washington, the multitude of lobbyists working on or raising cash for his campaign, and the likelihood that McCain will continue Bush's economic policies.

The flyer will be delivered to households in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota (the site of the GOP convention), AFL-CIO spokesperson Steve Smith confirms. Volunteers will start hitting union households with the flier in the late afternoon tomorrow and continue into the night.

Late Update: The volunteers will actually be dropping the fliers in 24 states, with a special emphasis on the five battlegrounds listed above.

Yesterday was President Bush's big night at the GOP convention, but you wouldn't have known it if you were, you know, there.

We just checked all the full texts of the speeches from last night's festivities that are on the GOP convention's official Web page. The word "Bush" appears exactly zero times. The word "president" doesn't appear anywhere in connection with Bush.

Oh, and one other funny thing: The GOP's page of speeches, which included the orations of a bunch of unknowns, didn't even bother including the speeches given by the president or Laura.

Tonight: Palin's Big Speech
Sarah Palin will be delivering her acceptance speech as the Republican vice-presidential nominee tonight, a second chance to make a good impression on the voting public after a very tumultuous last few days.

Obama In Ohio Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in the big swing state of Ohio, where polls have shown a close race, with stops in New Philadelphia and Dillonvale.

McCain Arriving In Minnesota Today
John McCain is scheduled to arrive in the Twin Cities today at 12:45 p.m. ET.

WaPo: Palin Was Only Interviewed By Campaign This Past Wednesday
The Washington Post reports that Sarah Palin was only interviewed by John McCain's vetting team this past Wednesday, the day before John McCain asked her to be his running mate. It's hard to believe that the full ramifications of picking Palin were properly deliberated by the campaign.

Reid "Disappointed" With Lieberman
Harry Reid's spokesman told CNN that Reid is "very disappointed" with Joe Lieberman's speech last night at the Republican Convention. "As the American people have made very clear, the last thing this country needs is another four years of the same old failed Bush-McCain policies of the past."

Obama To Appear On O'Reilly
Barack Obama will reportedly be going where not too many prominent Dems like to venture: The O'Reilly Factor on Fox News. Obama will be sitting down with O'Reilly for an interview set to air tomorrow night, in an attempt to counter John McCain's speech at the Republican Convention.

Poll: Dem Has Narrow Edge For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new SurveyUSA poll shows the Democratic nominee narrowly ahead in the race for an open House seat of New Mexico's GOP Rep. Heather Wilson. Democratic Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich has 51%, while Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White has 46%, in a campaign that will probably be close all the way to Election Day.

Michael Moore To Lieberman: Stop Talking About Me!
Michael Moore has responded in a blog post to Joe Lieberman's mentioning of him during last night's Republican convention speech. "What is it with you and your Republican friends always bringing me up?" Moore writes. "Can't you stop thinking about me? It's starting to sound like a fetish! Stop it!"

Fred Thompson's speech tonight at the Republican Convention will pitch John McCain as the steady leader ready to guide America -- and he'll take some none-too-subtle hits against Obama as a show-boater.

"When he travels abroad, he prefers quietly speaking to the troops amidst the heat and hardship of their daily lives," Thompson will say, according to pre-released excerpts -- a possible reference to the GOP's false accusation that Obama has canceled visits with troops because he couldn't get any publicity out of it, and that he'd rather speak to big crowds in Europe.

"And the same character that marked John McCain's military career has also marked his political career," Thompson will say. "This man, John McCain, is not intimidated by what the polls say or by what is politically safe or popular."