I wondered what I felt when I woke this morning. Now I know it was the last hold of paleo-conservativism lifting from the state of North Carolina. I don't want to celebrate the man's death, but I can't say we'll miss him.

The Obama campaign has a big 4th of July weekend voter registration drive on in NC. Personally, I think the best possible way to honor Jesse's "legacy" is to put NC in Obama's column come November.

Posted at July 4, 2008 11:14 AM in response to Jesse Helms, Dead.

Dr Zaius: not only are you wrong about PPP - which did the best job of calling NC, IN, and OR of any of the larger pollsters - but you are also wrong in the demographics you've listed as "bad" for Obama. The only group there that polls better for McCain is "rednecks." With every other group you note, Obama does better. It's only white men with whom McCain polls ahead, so if that's your only evidence that Florida is a sure thing for McCain, I'm not convinced.

However, I do think you're probably right about the state being Republican territory on the whole. I just think it's Pubs for reasons other than "older white women, Cubans, Jews, ... and veterans." At least according to all the polling I've seen, more of them are voting Dem this year. :-)

Posted at July 2, 2008 1:25 AM in response to Poll: Obama Pulls Into Narrow Lead In Florida

A book is okay, but I've always heard that a kindergarten drawing is worth 1000 words.

Posted at June 18, 2008 9:51 AM in response to Was The Media Unfair To Hillary? Here's Our Rundown.

Well, he's got some flaws, including his age (70) and his record on the death penalty (the single biggest hang-up for me personally), but a red-stater who could be a good "floater" choice would be Jim Hunt. He's like the single most popular figure in all of NC political history, I think. He got elected governor for 4 terms. Great on education, good on economy. Don't know if it's a "pro" or a "con," but Hunt is also the guy who came up with the super-delegate system. ;-)

I think if Gore had picked Hunt as his VP instead of Loserman in 2000, he'd have won - "two southerners" wisdom aside. Again, I don't think he's a real choice for Obama, but if O is going to sit down with an oldie like Nunn, he might want to have a chat with Hunt, too, if for no other reason than the fact that it would earn him some more free NC news coverage.

Posted at June 17, 2008 3:19 AM in response to Poll: Obama Just Edging McCain In Virginia

He needs to take the Senate seat. There are lots of potential VP choices, but Warner is the guy running for that seat. He'll win it, but the NSCC couldn't find another viable contender at this short notice. Warner is doing the right thing by stating that his focus is on the race he's running now, not some hypothetical race that he didn't set out to run.

Posted at June 17, 2008 3:03 AM in response to Poll: Obama Just Edging McCain In Virginia

Your "add 5" rule puts a whole lot of states in play. But it's also why I keep saying NC should remain in the "swing" column, regardless of current polling. VA and NC will both go blue. Both underpolled Obama victories in primary, similar demographics, similar ground game. Electoral vote count: 13 (VA) + 15 (NC) = 28 = One more than FL

And the VP choice won't matter. Obama's already got them in his column.

Posted at June 17, 2008 3:00 AM in response to Poll: Obama Just Edging McCain In Virginia

McCain's pissy because he doesn't get to tag along. He's desperately trying to control Obama's schedule - first with the "invitation" for a joint trip to Iraq, and now with the "invitation" for the series of town halls. They want to say when/where Obama goes because they know their candidate can't keep pace. McCain looks more tired with each passing day, whereas Obama looks like he's just getting started. The desire for "joint" appearances, travel, etc. is based on a need to set the pace, as well as a means to (hopefully) neutralize Obama's ability to campaign in places like VA, NC, NM, CO, etc. McCain doesn't really care about the Iraq trip per se, he's just trying to find any opening in the Obama full-court press.

Posted at June 17, 2008 2:48 AM in response to McCain Camp Dismisses Obama's Plan To Visit Iraq

seriously. no one's too worried about her stealing a few RXs, but if she thinks she's getting away with pilfering recipes? holla, that is a serious crime.

Posted at June 17, 2008 2:36 AM in response to McCain Camp Cribs Recipe For Cindy -- Again!

I believe that McCain desperately wants to control Obama's summer campaign schedule, as I explained in a post yesterday. When the "let's take a trip to Iraq" gambit failed, they came out with "let's debate all summer long" to replace it. The second "offer" seems more palatable because it seems more "beneficial" to the American public in terms of addressing more of the issues currently on voters' minds (Iraq having fallen behind the economy as the top concern), and it seems more "fair" because it should theoretically help Obama as much as McCain. The other advantage for the McCain camp is that it's much easier to get the press to push the "town hall"/"debates" proposal for them, since it's clear that the networks are going to benefit a lot more from covering those than they might have from covering (or more likely, not covering) some Iraq junket.

Whatever the "joint appearance" plan, however, the biggest desire fueling it is not, not, not to give voters a "better picture" of Obama versus McCain. It's to give fewer voters a personal interaction with Obama himself. The McCain campaign is desperate to keep Obama out of North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, etc. That's what the "10" town halls are about. It's way less about the "town halls" and way more about the "10." They just want to tell Obama where to be for as much of the summer as possible, so they can make sure they're not falling further and further behind.

It's a given that Obama is a better speaker. All McCain has to do is hold even. If he "wins" - because he dominates in the "town hall" format - so much the better. But they probably don't expect this, and they probably don't care. They've given up on the idea that they can neutralize Obama's speaking advantage. Right now, they are just looking for ways that they can deal with the fact that Obama is a better campaigner.

Posted at June 16, 2008 3:21 AM in response to McCain: Sorry, Five Joint Appearances With Obama Just Won't Do It

I also thought it would be a great idea when I first heard the proposal. But then I started thinking about it more, especially as someone who lives in NC and has seen the time and attention Obama has put into campaigning here. That has got to be freaking the McCain people out. And I've noticed that it's always when Obama is making connections and covering a lot of ground in "their" territory that they come out with some "Hey, why don't you join us in a trip to Kalamazoo" proposal. So it just seems a bit disingenuous, from my perspective, for the McCain camp to frame their "invitation" as primarily being an offer to talk about "issues." Obama is talking about issues - every day, in lots of different places, to lots of different voters. And yes, I want to see debates! I want to see real, substantive debates, in various formats. But not at the cost of Obama's grassroots campaigning, because I personally believe that's where he will win the election. Call it my Carolina Bias, I guess.

Posted at June 16, 2008 3:06 AM in response to McCain's Transparent "10 Town Hall" Challenge