An added point in the same data: Democrats lose, but they get close to 40%.

To me, that confirms it's a constituency to go on courting on a systematic basis.

Of course, I'd say that in any case. Not getting a majority of that group in the general election should always worry Democrats, because we're supposed to be the party of those who get the short end of the stick.

But seeing data showing we'd only need to add 10 points to get that majority back is reassuring.

The way to do it, I think, is to work this year on showing commitment to the right results and to spend four years actually making the results happen. It's about rebuilding hope in settings where hope may be hardest to restore.

Posted at May 14, 2008 11:28 AM in response to Poll: McCain Beats Obama And Hillary By Equal Margin Among Working Class Whites

aerfirmie, i hear you about the danger.

she knows she's making that worse, and that's the number one reason i'm glad she won't be on the november ballot. she has to know how early the secret service came in. from arkansas, she has to know about black leaders who don't publish their home addresses because of the evil that's out there.

Posted at May 14, 2008 12:32 AM in response to Angry Black Female

Listen, you know how great a job Bill Clinton did? He'll do it again. His wife won't get in the way. She'll stand by her man, and so will I.

See, it's better than the two for the price of one think he said all those years back. It's four terms as constitutional as two!

(Stupid big city pundits think women are voting for Clinton because they're feminists. No way. I shave my legs, and I love my husband, and that's why I'm voting for Mrs. William Jefferson Clinton in Kentucky next week.)

Posted at May 14, 2008 12:17 AM in response to Bizarro Day at TPMCafe

Google "Affrilachia," and you'll tap into a discussion of being African-American in the highlands.

Posted at May 13, 2008 10:16 PM in response to A look at the historical roots of racism in WV, from a depressed mountaineer

I just went to a closing event for my husband's academic year. In years past, there's often been a student performance, either classical or barbershop. This year, for the very first time, there were fiddles. Strong ones and a strong voices that led off with "Blue Moon of Kentucky."

I don't think anyone saw me wipe my eyes, but I surely did.

Eventually, when people and place become part of you, they stay part of you even when you disagree. That's what home means, and it's something that doesn't need explaining to most folks here in the Bluegrass state.

I won't say my Kentucky neighbors are right, but I will say they're mine.

Posted at May 13, 2008 9:39 PM in response to A look at the historical roots of racism in WV, from a depressed mountaineer

Akbar,

Added thanks from an adopted daughter of Kentucky for a gentle and lucid explanation of what's happening in the hills.

From years of slowly making friends in the eastern part of the state, I'd add that I think there's a systematic wariness of strangers.

A justified wariness, given the way folks from other places have been known to cheat and exploit both the people and the land.

And a wariness that lasts longer because of the educational barriers and, until recently, the substantial difficulties of communication and travel.

And a wariness that may be getting more concentrated as the folks with options and confidence move away to escape the economic depression that gets deeper year by year, and the local community becomes more and more those who could not find a a way to leave.

The wariness is, I think, not mainly about race.

It's about anyone from elsewhere, and about whether one count on respect from strangers who seem to have had some type of social advantage. An Anglo-Saxon with Obama's resume and rhetoric would also have a problem--not as big a problem, but a serious one all the same.

Building trust takes more work than in other places, because people have been burned so often. Sadly, Obama does not have that time this month.

More happily, he's going to have eight years to work on it from the Oval Office.

Posted at May 13, 2008 5:18 PM in response to A look at the historical roots of racism in WV, from a depressed mountaineer

Anyway, we know the egg-heads and latte-sippers will all go for McCain in the general election...

Posted at May 13, 2008 10:19 AM in response to Polls Give Obama Big Lead In Oregon

Kids are a good barometer of what's really big in American culture. Back when I thought I had my three- and five-year-olds limited to PBS and a few Nickelodeon shows, I remember discovering that they both knew not only the Golden Arches but the whole McDonalds' menu.

On the one hand, I don't like being pushed around by that sort of giant movement. On the other hand, I do like knowing what the movements are.

Billy, I suggest that as you think about the race, you add your daughter's comments as evidence. Not that Obama's right, but as evidence that the Obama campaign has some pretty amazing methods that are how politics works.

Posted at May 12, 2008 12:32 PM in response to Yes, We Can!

Well, no, I don't think McCain does have someone to check that people are compatible with his own key talking points about himself.

As he grows his organization, there's going to be tremendous pressure to choose folks like these guys. The Republican empire will assemble itself inside his camp.

That's why any differences between McCain and Bush barely matter. Even on issues where McCain seriously means to be different, his intentions won't change the outcome. And if he tried to put together an administration, the same would be true.

Posted at May 11, 2008 9:32 PM in response to John McCain's Lobbyist Problems Continue: Another Aide Resigns Over Myanmar Junta Ties

I knew during the 2004 speech that I wanted a President Obama someday. For anyone else who remembers the line, he had me at the word "Awesome." To me, that was the signal that I'd spotted a Democrat who could actively resist culture war divisions.

And yet, I dithered a bit about experience and electability and whether this was the right year. But on Martin Luther King's birthday, I realized that we were coming up on the 40th anniversary of Dr. King's death, and I realized who I wanted to have as the voice of the Democratic party for that event. In that moment, it wasn't about being sure about electability. It was about being sure who I wanted to fight for.

Only after that did I look into the organizational strength of the campaign and become quite sure that we're looking not only at electability but at the opportunity to realign the country for a generation.

Posted at May 11, 2008 9:27 PM in response to How did you choose your favoured candidate?