Regarding that Glenn Greenwald post above: he obviously has secure health care, comfrotable employment and is not worried about his social security or the rising numbers of Americans in prison. I wonder if he lives in a gated community. He may as well.

Posted at April 29, 2008 4:52 PM in response to Obama On Wright: "I Might Not Know Him As Well As I Thought"

It is too late for Obama to repudiate Wright. Possibly, he can still eke out the nomination but he can't win the GE. He should have quietly left the church last summer. This chicken has come home to roost.

Posted at April 29, 2008 4:48 PM in response to Obama On Wright: "I Might Not Know Him As Well As I Thought"

Bit by bit the evidence is coming in. Obama likely cannot win in November. People are desperate to vote for a democrat. But they will be reluctant to vote for Obama b/c he has no established political identity. He has tried (pretty well) to create one during this campaign. Change is scary to most Americans. Clinton offers a known quantity. Sad to day, so does the awful McCain. If you don't want McCain to be president, you better think about Hillary soon. If you think Hillary is worse than any alternative, then why aren't you voting for Nader? B/c it is basically the same stance--which got us Bush and, if you keep it up, McCain. I'm not saying Hillary is perfect. She is better than McCain and she can beat him.

Posted at April 28, 2008 11:01 PM in response to AP Poll: Hillary Doing Better Than Obama Against McCain -- Among Independents

Dear Missouri Voter,

I like reading your posts b/c you are thoughtful and fair to all commentors. I still think that Obama is more like Dukakis or McGovern (though not as liberal as either) than not. I am sorry, though, that you already seem to want to blame Hillary for what would be Obama's loss (and, again, I want a Dem to win.) I began as an Obama supporter but as time has gone on, I have had to decide Hillary is the more relaible choice. A Dem just can't win w/o the core Dem base. I don't think Hill's voters will come over and I fear that McCain by Nov. will seem to most a "safe" choice compared to Obama. Now I think McCain is batshit insane and really dangerous but nothing about the history of presidential elections since 1964 suggests Obama can win.

Posted at April 28, 2008 3:08 PM in response to Howard Dean: Party Elders All Agree Race Shouldn't Go To Convention

The Clintons are not toast in the black community. The black community is not voting for McCain. The black community is the most reliable part of the Dem base. The black community knows they have no chance with the Repbus. So-called Reagan democrats and the "creative class" are the unreliable ones for Dems. Hillary gets the Reagan demcorats. The "creative class" is harder to peg. Generally, they vote their "class" interest which is not the same as working class Democrats. As this site too often shows, the "creative class" often does not give a damn about less affluent Americans. They are too busy celebrating their "education."

Posted at April 28, 2008 2:49 PM in response to AP/Ipsos: Hillary Performing Better Than Obama Against McCain

Hillary has won most of the "contested" and "fair" elections. Obama's significant win are in Wisconsin, Iowa (maybe), and Missouri. The Caucuses don't tell us much except Obama had a better delegate-acquisition strategy. I'd be for Obama had he won Penn or Cali or NJ (or Michigan or Florida :)).

Newsflash: it is not over. Obama does not have enough delegates to win. Until he does, the lead is only about perception. Let's hope the Dem party saves the day and nominates the candidate who can win. This, alas, is not Obama.

Posted at April 28, 2008 2:40 PM in response to AP/Ipsos: Hillary Performing Better Than Obama Against McCain

Dorn76,

Sad to say, what you and I think does not matter as much as how voters vote in November. Dukakis was well ahead though most of the summer of '88. American voting patterns in the GE are pretty set and easy to identify and predict. That's why so much of the last election was spent in Ohio. In Nov. we'll see which view was right. I do want a Dem to win. I don't think Obama can. You do. I hope you are right. American political history says Obama cannot win. (After the real campaign does its work, I don't see how he win Penn. or Ohio or Virginia or Missouri.) Sometimes history changes, I grant. Maybe it will in November. But I assure you, I can think.

Posted at April 28, 2008 10:40 AM in response to Obama Advisers See Need To Improve His Efforts With Blue Collar Voters

I want Dean and the Dems to pick a winner. I don't care if it is Hillary, Obama, or Donna Brazile. I see little evidence to suggest Obama can win. I hope I am wrong (assuming he gets the nomination). But if Obama loses, I hope you Obama supporters will reflect on what happened. B/c the way to his loss is easy to see from here. As I say, I'd be happy to be wrong. But if he does lose, the question will be, how many of the Dem leaders supported him knowing he would likley lose and how many of them are just plain clueless. (Which I may well be! but of course do no think that I am.)

Posted at April 28, 2008 10:26 AM in response to Howard Dean: Party Elders All Agree Race Shouldn't Go To Convention

Obama advisers realize Obama needs to win blue collar voters. Great! Next thing they'll realize that he needs to get 270 electoral votes in November.

And at that moment they'll understand just how "effed" they are. B/c his chance of getting to 270 is about the same as Michael Dukakis's was. In fact, I bet if we ran Dukakis this term, he'd get more electoral votes than Obama.

Posted at April 28, 2008 10:19 AM in response to Obama Advisers See Need To Improve His Efforts With Blue Collar Voters

Obama is right not to debate Hillary. He looks bad whenever he goes off script.

The real question he is likely considering now is how to get McCain off the ballot in November. B/c that is the only way he is going to win the GE. This is his history. He is the master of winning w/o scrutiny. He got Alice Palmer and others off of the ballot. He in effect disqualified Ryan in the Illinois Senate Race. He got his own name off of the ballot in Michigan in the Dem primary to deny his opponent victory there.

What scam will he run on McCain? I can't wait to watch it. Because if he does Chicago-style his way into the Oval Office, then we'll get to find out what he really wants to do as President (and declined to say earlier b/c no one really made him say so in the debates).

I suspect social securty will be one thing that gets changed--towards privatization. He does not praise Reagan and the Repubs for nothing. If his Mom had moved him back to Kansas as a child, he no doubt would be (an offical) Republican today.

But, yes, great idea. Don't make Obama tell us what he is for. Just let his fake website do the talking.

Posted at April 28, 2008 10:13 AM in response to No Debate For Hillary: Obama Is Right