I'm sorry -- I would LOVE to believe this poll, but the numbers don't add up. The sample size is tiny, but beyond that the MOE is not quoted accurately! According to basic binomial statistics the absolute minimum MOE would be 17%. I have no clue how you massage the numbers (read: miscalculate) to get that MOE.

Posted at May 5, 2008 2:21 AM in response to CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Rebounds From Wright Damage, Public Split On Gas Tax

That's .35(.85) + .65(.35). But your 52.5% number is correct. I think you have a good argument -- I hope your estimates are right.

Posted at April 30, 2008 11:44 AM in response to Obama Getting Endorsement of Super-Del And Indiana Rep. Baron Hill

Unfortunately the MSM is the one that's distributing the kool-aid. Sigh.

Posted at April 28, 2008 4:16 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Hillary Leads By Nine Points In Indiana

I don't buy it. I think if Hillary loses Indiana and NC the argument for her ability to win becomes laughable even buy MSM standards. I predict that a large wave of superdelegates will announce their support just to drive the point home. Maybe I'm too optimistic.

That is of course IF he wins Indiana. I'm getting a bit skeptical. I think he'll lose Indiana by a couple points and we can expect this stupidity to continue for weeks to come.

Posted at April 28, 2008 4:13 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Hillary Leads By Nine Points In Indiana

That's extremely interesting. What does the Obama campaign possibly have to gain by raising expectations?

Posted at April 21, 2008 11:25 AM in response to Polls Show Possible Movement To Clinton In Pennsylvania

McCain's position is unbelievably hypocritical. McCain claimed that Obama's association with Ayer brought up some deep concerns, but then on the Hagee issue he simply states that he disagrees with his statements about the catholic church. But he refuses to disassociate himself with Hagee!

It's rediculous! By McCain's logic Obama should be off the hook if he simply condems Ayers statements -- which he already has.

Posted at April 21, 2008 1:42 AM in response to McCain: "Probably" A Mistake To Seek Hagee's Support -- But I'm Glad To Have It

I think this brings up an interesting point: Does Hillary think that she has destroyed her own reputation and future electability?

If she thinks so I can absolutely imagine your first choice where she goes down ugly, but if she doesn't think that all is lost I think she will step out after Indiana/NC.

Posted at April 19, 2008 11:49 AM in response to Dean's 25 Cred Committee Members Could Decide Hillary's Fate

Obamabots? This is getting rediculous. Why must Clinton supports reduce themselves to such childish games as name calling? The fact that you refer to Obama's supporters as "Obamabots" doesn't help your candidate's case -- all it does is increase the level of animosity between Clinton supports and Obama supporters. Don't get me wrong -- I would equally critical of an Obama supporter stooping to such tactics. Can we please all grow up people -- let's stick to logic, reason, and the issues at hand.

Posted at March 20, 2008 3:14 PM in response to Poll: Hillary Up By 16 Points In Pennsylvania

I completely agree -- this fear mongering is what pushed me away from Hillary in the first place. If Hillary wins I'm voting for Nader.

Posted at March 1, 2008 2:07 AM in response to Obama Response Ad: "In A Dangerous World, It's Judgment That Matters"