Obama opted out of public financing. McCain needs this to become a negative ad war before the general election funding kicks in. That's why they went so absurdly negative. Once the general election funding kicks in, Obama will nail McCain's ass big time. What we should have learned from the Dem primary season is that Obama is a very effective political counterattacker. He makes a list and a few weeks later hits you even harder than you hit him. McCain's campaign better brace itself from what's about to happen.

On another note, it was dumb of the McCain campaign to go so negative right at the end of July. They don't understand how Obama's online fundraising works. Half of his June total was raised on the last day of June. If McCain wanted to do these ads, he should have waited until August 1 instead of effectively donating some extra money to Obama's campaign by giving Obama supporters reasons to donate some money.

Posted at August 4, 2008 3:12 AM in response to Lieberman: Obama "A Good Young Man"

Obama opted out of public financing for the general election. McCain wants to bait Obama into a negative back and forth before the general election funds kick in. Meanwhile, Obama is saving his money until McCain is on a limited budget and then he'll nail him hard.

As we learned during the primary season, Obama is a very effective political counter-attacker. If you hit him, he takes note of it and gets you back later. He doesn't let any despicable attack go unrewarded.

For example, take Hillary's Commander-in-Chief threshold charge. Obama hit her back even worse. During a conference call the day before the PA primary, a veteran on the call claimed that Hillary didn't have the moral authority to lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier on Memorial Day because of her Bosnia sniper fire lies. OUCH!

That's Obama's modus operandi. Counterattack in a way such that you hit your opponent hard but don't take too much heat because your opponent started the fight first. Few people like violence and starting fights, but everybody believes in the concept of self-defense. McCain will get his as soon as his general election funds kick in.

Posted at August 4, 2008 3:01 AM in response to When is Obama going to respond?

No way he picks Huckabee. Huckabee even said that he wasn't being vetted and that being V.P. would interfere with other stuff that he has going on. Obviously he's just trying to toot his own horn, but McCain won't pick him. I do think that you make a great point though. McCain won't win over the evangelist vote and Obama seems to shine in those types of forums, e.g. CNN's Compassion Forum back in Febrary with Obama and Hillary.

Posted at July 26, 2008 5:11 PM in response to Weekend Bloggers: Join the Obama & McCain Vice-Presidential Predictions Thread (Guess Before July 27, Midnight)

McCain-Romney.
Obama-Sebelius.

It's clear that whoever wins the economy arguments will win this election. I think that Obama will feel that he has shown that he has crossed the commander-in-chief threshold, so he will look to pick someone to help with the economy now. Biden's stock had been rising, but world events (e.g. Maliki endorsing Obama's Iraq plan) along with Obama's world tour will give him the freedom he needs to pick someone to help with the economy.

Sebelius has a great reputation for helping turn around the Kansas economy. She will also be valuable for his alternative energy plans. I notice that Obama is more comfortable discussing details about foreign policy than the economy or energy policy. For example, we always hear about his 10-year, $150 billion alternative energy plan, but he seems to be kind of vague with some of the details. I think that Obama will choose someone to help him with his ambitious desire to accomplish a lot during his first presidency, and Sebelius would fit that bill. Obama doesn't like to micromanage, so he wouldn't pick Hillary because he would have to look over his shoulder to see what she's doing.

McCain will pick Romney because of the economy and also to help with Michigan. McCain's best economy surrogate is definitely Carly Fiorina (and it's not even close), but I don't see him choosing her. She's never been elected to public office which will probably be enough to prevent her from being picked.

Posted at July 26, 2008 5:08 PM in response to Weekend Bloggers: Join the Obama & McCain Vice-Presidential Predictions Thread (Guess Before July 27, Midnight)

Did it ever occur to you that perhaps his internal polling shows that the Muslim smear is sticking? You should just shut up and let Obama deal with the Muslim smear however he likes. Some of those WV voters cited Obama being a Muslim as a reason not to vote against him.

Posted at May 17, 2008 4:07 AM in response to Obama's Photo-Op with a Cross!!!: Despicable

I agree that this 'Hillmentum' is a crock of crap. Rachel Maddow said it best a couple weeks ago. Nobody knows what the superdelegates are going to base their decision on. Maybe pledged delegates, maybe popular vote, maybe money earned, maybe years in the White House, maybe a weegie board. What we have is just pure speculation by media pundits who don't have a vote and by all indications don't really have inside knowledge as to the thoughts of the superdelegates.

Posted at May 3, 2008 7:45 AM in response to Poll: Clinton Ahead By Seven In Indiana

That table is essentially an abbreviated z-score table adapted for polls. Great to use. Political pundits should use it. It's easy to understand even without a background in statistics.

Posted at May 2, 2008 1:23 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Obama Ahead By Six In Oregon Primary

No poll would ever have 100% assurance, unless it polled EVERY SINGLE VOTER in the state. There will always be a margin of error with polls since they poll hundreds to a thousand people when hundreds of thousands of people will vote.

Posted at May 2, 2008 1:13 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Obama Ahead By Six In Oregon Primary

Trust me, I'm right. Engineering grad students deal with statistics on a nearly daily basis (or so it seems). I noticed you didn't even bother to calculate a z-score with your analysis. Do you even know what that is? This is like the 8th lecture in an intro to statistics course in undergrad. I've been a math whiz since elementary school, so please come correct. :-)

By the way, if you don't believe me, just look up margin of error on wikipedia.org and they'll give you the outline as to how to approach this question.

One thing that does deserve mentioning though is that statistical analysis of polls assumes complete negative correlation of results. Interpret that as all of the undecideds split equally between the two candidates. So that's an assumption that goes into calculating the percent likeihood that Obama is 'truly' leading Hillary.

Posted at May 2, 2008 1:05 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Obama Ahead By Six In Oregon Primary

Can't trust a pollster who doesn't understand the difference between correlation and cause and effect.

Posted at May 2, 2008 7:56 AM in response to SurveyUSA: Obama Ahead By Six In Oregon Primary