Survey USA with tossups
Survey USA has a new set of polls out (see this posting on TPM Election Central). The straightforward calculation of electoral votes gives the following scores:Obama - McCain 280-258Clinton - McCain 276 - 262But Survey USA attributes electoral wins even...more »
Posted on March 6, 2008 3:41 PM
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Lauren Wolfe of Michigan shouldn't be included in the count, for obvious state-related reasons
Posted at May 14, 2008 6:19 PM in response to After West Virginia Loss, Obama Keeps Racking Up Super-Delegates
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it's funny how, for the second time today, you're preaching Hillary's talking points
earlier, you chose to present a vote count which included MI, but not IA, ME, NV, WA
now, you choose the 3 swing states the Clinton campaign would want you to talk about; it gets sillier than that, when one of your examples doesn't even look that swingy after all
where are CO, IA, MN, NC, NM, NV, VA, WI?
not to mention that you accept the Clinton premises regarding white voters; when should we expect the equivalent article about:
i. black voters
ii. college graduates
iii. all separate voting blocks in America?Posted at May 14, 2008 1:49 PM in response to Is Hillary Outperforming Obama Against McCain Among Working Class Voters In Key Swing States?
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"ABC survey says that 59% of Blacks would like to see Hillary as the VP candidate on the Democratic ticket"
There are at least a couple of reasons to doubt this.
First, they had a sample of only 206 black voters, hence the error might be sky-high.
Second, look back at various primary polls and you'll see many of them underestimating Obama's support at say 60-70%, when it was clear he was going for at least 85%. I was wondering back then why they published a poll which is so obviously wrong. Hence one has to think about how what people respond is correlated to what they actually think.
Posted at May 14, 2008 10:27 AM in response to Hillary and Blacks: This can't be true
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Oh, Obama is brilliant enough to overcome the Clinton machine, but you're saying he actually lacked the talent Columbia on his own, without affirmative action??
Posted at May 14, 2008 10:02 AM in response to Obama Rolls Out Two More Super-Del Endorsements
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and yet, Clinton lost to Obama in terms of
a. pledged delegates
b. super delegates
c. popular vote
e. organization
f. total donations
g. number of small donorsshe's on top though, in one count: debt
I wonder where this places her on your scale
Posted at May 14, 2008 9:24 AM in response to Obama Rolls Out Two More Super-Del Endorsements
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Even shorter reply: primaries are over, Obama won.
Posted at May 14, 2008 6:56 AM in response to NRCC Head At A Loss For Spin On Mississippi Race
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"I cannot in good conscience go to the convention and not support Barack."
Then he should not go to the convention.
He should have the elegance to withdraw and let Clinton pick a replacement.
I don't like it one bit when pledged delegates forget about the people they're representing and start believing it's all about themselves.
Posted at May 13, 2008 9:07 AM in response to Pledged Delegate For Hillary Switches To Obama
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I would give both of them credit for this poll result. Of course, Obama deserves more credit, but Clinton also did a lot of good work in NC.
Posted at May 11, 2008 5:20 PM in response to Rasmussen: GOP Sen. Dole In Dead Heat Against Democratic Nominee
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you're pathetic, this is Friday's news.
look around, you might find Clinton's half delegate of the day somewhere, before it becomes old news as well.
Posted at May 5, 2008 11:54 PM in response to AP/Ipsos: Hillary Takes Seven-Point National Lead Over Obama, Both Beat McCain
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Obama goes down 10 points against Clinton, while at the same time she loses 4 points against McCain, who to complete the circle loses 2 points to Obama. Rock, paper, scissors anyone?
I don't buy it.
Posted at May 5, 2008 11:22 PM in response to AP/Ipsos: Hillary Takes Seven-Point National Lead Over Obama, Both Beat McCain



