There is another story up at Dkos like this. Antecdotally it's great. And there are lots of similar Hillary stories. My dad is a 70 year old Republican (figher pilot) who has given $ to Obama to keep Hillary away. He likes Obama to some degree but I always figured he would vote for McCain. Interestingly, he indicated he may vote for Obama. (Of course, he thinks he's a communist and hopes he won't implement all those lefty policies : ))

But what I still can't my head around is with all these stories out there, why are the polls reflecting this to a larger degree? I'm sure it will all fall in line once Obama is the man but it's perplexing...

Posted at April 30, 2008 4:36 PM in response to Another Republican leaves the dark side.

It goes without saying that he still has to be able to win NC, OR, MT, and SD. Those are his states. IN is in play and he needs to keep it close.

I guess what her strategy is is to bloody him up so much that he does indeed limp to the finish line and then she takes it to the convention. It's so evil because it effectively hands the election to McCain. I'm not sure Obama could win after a brokered convention and I'm positive she couldn't.

My biggest beef about what Dean said was that this was effectively a tie. Bullshit. He is ahead 5.7% in the pledged delegate count. That is not a tie.

What a calmer less paranoid person might take Dean's comments to mean is that, assuming things go as planned, he knows that Obama will get it and he is being gracious to the Clintons and their supporters so as to not piss them off. I'm not so sure...but it is a thought.

Posted at April 28, 2008 7:54 PM in response to Obama Campaign, Please Wake up: the Delegate Math Doesn't Matter

Lalo - don't be naive. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how this plays out if this goes to the convention. Millions of voters of all types will be completely and utterly disgusted by the process. Large portions of the AA community will abondon her. Will they vote for McCain? Not sure but I would safely say a lot of them will stay home. The race baiting the Clintons have engaged in leaves them no choice in their minds and I don't blame them. In fact I might even join them. Hillary has no moral compass and I don't trust her to be president.

The supers are smart enough to see that the future of the Democratic party is tied up in the young voters that have come out for Obama. Even if he loses the general (and Hillary is working overtime to make sure he does), the Dems still win. It would be suicide to turn away from the largest generation of voters - even larger than the boomers.

The problem is that media won't talk about this and just assume that the good little loyal AA voters will still come out for her. BS.

As for not being a Democrat, Hillary seems to have made it pretty clear that she is a Republican so what difference does it make?

Posted at April 28, 2008 7:42 PM in response to Obama Campaign, Please Wake up: the Delegate Math Doesn't Matter

I don't think you are entirely wrong. In general, I think delegate math matters a lot and that the vast majority of supers will not overturn the will of the people. So assuming things go the way we expect them to (Obama wins in NC, OR, MT, SD Clinton wins in KY, WV, PR and IN is close) then I see the supers backing the leader (Obama) no matter what.

Now I personally don't see why IN should be any more important than any other state. But one the problems we are dealing with here is the media buying in to the Clinton's new math. The media a) wants this race to go on and b) wants Obama to lose because poses too much of a threat. So to that degree, I can see what you are saying. The NC governor thing has me a little nervous. These people are not stupid. When they had conversations with the Clintons about the path to the nomination, they had an answer for him that he clearly bought in to. What does that tell us?

It is important to keep IN close. I think that would be fine coupled with a good NC win. Now if by some miracle she can pull off NC, then the Dems really are screwed.

Posted at April 28, 2008 7:34 PM in response to Obama Campaign, Please Wake up: the Delegate Math Doesn't Matter

Guys, check out Al's analysis. You'll love it.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1105#comment-22652

Hillary lost support from her core voters in PA. One person seemed to think that if you transferred the data to OH, she would have won there by only 1.5%. This is the real story. Of course she won PA. How could she not. But she lost support.

Posted at April 23, 2008 2:48 AM in response to It's all over

Here's my take on the daily polls. It seems clear at this point that the movement to Hillary in the recent days is real. But what can one take from this regarding PA...which is the only thing that matters right now? Well, the people in the national tracking poll are only kinda paying attention - it's background noise for them. I mean, most and I really mean MOST, people do not follow this race to the same degree that we all do. The MSM is creaming him right now (in order to keep the race alive and get them more $$) and those voters who are easily swayed are swinging back to Hillary.

But those in PA, at least to a much larger degree, are actually paying attention. They are getting a lot more information and up close and personal campaigning. Their votes are influenced by a lot more than just background noise. It's their turn to vote and they are taking a lot more in to account than just MSM narrative.

None of this is to say he is going to win PA. The hill is just way too steep to climb in that state. 7-10 point loss is realistic. Less than 5% would be fantastic. But a win? No way.

Posted at April 19, 2008 7:52 PM in response to Gallup: Clinton Edges Obama By One Point

Didn't seem them complaining when Hillary had 100 SDs in the bag before the voting even started. Hypocritical much?

Posted at April 18, 2008 4:06 PM in response to Top Hillary Fundraisers Rip Into Howard Dean For Saying Super-Dels Should Announce Support "Starting Now"

Look, it's fine to set your expectations low - I try to do the same. But for the polls to be THAT wrong?? I don't think so.

Posted at April 18, 2008 1:36 PM in response to Take PA. polls with a grain of salt.--I still think Clinton will likely win by 20-25pts.

Helloooo!! Conveniently forgetting about those 100 SDs had locked up before the voting even started. If supers endorsing equals voter disenfranchisment, then what about those? Just because supers endorse doesn't mean the people won't vote. Your logic is so twisted anyway. What do you mean let the people vote? So that you can overturn their votes with the supers later? The sooner you guys start getting used to the idea that Obama won, the better for you. Really.

Posted at April 18, 2008 1:35 AM in response to Dean: I Want Supers To Announce Their Endorsements "Starting Now"

Except for those 100 supers Hillary had locked up before the voting even started...I assume you'll want to keep those??

Posted at April 18, 2008 1:31 AM in response to Dean: I Want Supers To Announce Their Endorsements "Starting Now"