I'd take that bet in a heartbeat. Because if Obama wins Kentucky (which does border Illinois) it'd be a blowout of such staggering proportions, I'd be happy to pay.

Posted at June 24, 2008 4:42 PM in response to Poll: Obama And McCain Tied -- In Deep-Red Indiana!

Who's concerned? I think it was more a happy feeling of unsurprise.

Posted at June 23, 2008 4:49 PM in response to Poll: Obama Holds Enormous "Voter Enthusiasm" Edge Over McCain

There was another poll out yesterday on the excitement factor. Something like 34% of those planning on voting McCain said they were doing so "enthusiastically" versus 60-odd percent for Obama.

That's going to push turnout numbers both ways.

Posted at June 17, 2008 11:16 AM in response to Poll: Obama Leads McCain By Four, With Majority Wanting Out Of Iraq

"Snubgate" has to be my favorite bat-guano-crazy one. Despite what everyone involved and photographic evidence showed, a shot from one particular camera angle kept that utterly inane story going for nearly a week.

It was pretty much the exact same thing as the middle-finger thing, but got more play.

Posted at June 16, 2008 3:01 PM in response to Was The Media Unfair To Hillary? Here's Our Rundown.

Issa's the blockhead who showed absolute and utter ignorance of technical matters when trying to cover for the White House e-mail scandal.

Absolutely no clue what he's talking about 95% of the time.

Posted at May 20, 2008 5:10 PM in response to Johnson's Stonewalling Drives Waxman to Gavel-Pounding Distraction

I just can't see it, nor does she need to.

Clinton has finally, in this last week, adopted the tone that's pro-her without tearing Obama up. Given that, she's welcome to run as long as she likes. I mean, the whole thing ends in 15 days, why push it?

Via my back-of-envelope calculations, Obama will need something like 64 more delegates following tomorrow for the 2025-win. He's likely to get 22-25 from Puerto rico, and about 17 more from MT and SD together... that only leaves about 25 more SD endorsements to go, which should be in the bag by then. Even if you include MI/FL in some reduced amount, that number only grows by a bit.

The primary season really will end with a whimper, not a bang.

Posted at May 19, 2008 3:50 PM in response to Two New Polls Put Obama Way Ahead In Oregon

You forgot the asterisks:

*Counting non-credentialed primary in Florida
**Counting non-credentialed primary in Michigan
***Counting no votes for Obama in Michigan
****Counting no votes in Washington
*****Counting no votes in Iowa
******Counting no votes in Nebraska
*******Counting no votes in Nevada

I'm sure it was an oversight.

Posted at May 14, 2008 10:06 PM in response to In Speech Endorsing Obama, Edwards Offers Effusive Praise Of Hillary

This is why the SD counts vary from organization to organization. The big news orgs will contact them directly, and they may or may not classify leaners or conditionals.

Posted at May 9, 2008 10:46 AM in response to Tracking Today's Super-Delegates: Many Who Met With Obama Today Remaining Neutral

Well, realistically, if they're not seated until after the nomination is clinched, then that's their punishment -- they didn't really have a part in making the decision.

This was obviously the underlying desire of the DNC all along and why it's gone this far -- if the other states could decide things by themselves, then they could just seat the irrelevant MI/FL with lesson learned.

Posted at May 8, 2008 2:45 PM in response to Hillary Campaign Says No To New Michigan Delegate Proposal

Hmm, Demconwatch had Dahlman in for Obama a month ago.

Posted at May 8, 2008 1:45 PM in response to McAuliffe: This Race Won't Go To The Convention