If you go to surveyusa's website they have a state by state breakdown with percentages for each state. Very interesting. If you assume any state with a 5% margin or less is within the margin of error and thus in play the numbers break down thusley:

In Clinton vs. McCain McCain has solid support in 24 states with 198 electoral votes. Clinton has solid support in 14 states with 20 electoral votes. 13 states are in play with 133 electoral votes.

In Obama vs. McCain McCain has solid support in 17 states with 129 electoral votes. Obama has solid support in 20 states with 236 electoral votes. 14 states are in play with 173 electoral votes.

So clearly Obama not only starts with a larger base of support but McCain is much weaker against him and the silly large state strategy which does not reliably produce results can be thrown out.

Posted at March 6, 2008 4:37 PM in response to SurveyUSA: Hillary And Obama Win Electoral College In Distinct Ways

So if people are supposed to give attribution in their speeches when will Senator Clinton be crediting Obama for all the themes and phrases she has stolen over the past few months.

And maybe I'm slow but I don't get this broken campaign funding promise thing. He's not the nominee yet and this isn't the general election yet, so how can any promise be broken. Unless Clinton is stepping asside?

Posted at February 18, 2008 12:55 PM in response to Hillary Campaign: Obama Plagiarized Speech From Supporter

I don't see too many switching from him to her right now. Most of them signed on when it wasn't too likely he'd win so I imagine they knew what they were signing up for. Many of the Clinton supers though did this while she was 20 points up in all the polls so I don't see them as being as loyal.

Posted at February 15, 2008 12:56 AM in response to Civil Rights Icon John Lewis Switches Super-Delegate Vote From Hillary To Obama

An interesting fallacy in this argument is this, if there was really some deep dark skeleton in Obama's past do you really thing the Clintons wouldn't use it? The Clintons have played hard ball politics for a long time, they have one of the best opposition research teams you could want. These people questioned his kindergarten teachers! If there was something serious they would have used it. While I don't doubt there is some minor stuff they have that they are sitting on it's no doubt more spin then substance, and as Obama gains they might even trot everything they have out.

Remember that, looking back, there really wasn't anything to the Swift Boat thing. What sunk Kerry on that was they didn't respond to it quick enough and absent that the news networks played it over and over and over and the talking heads talked and talked and talked. So had he responded quicker the damage would have been mitigated. The I voted for it gaff is similar. He was right. He did vote for it before he voted against it. Yeah it sounded silly. He was baited by the Bush campaign and he retreated to senate-speak. But like responding to the Swift Boat thing the lesson has been learned.

I just don't buy the hasn't been vetted argument. The Clintons certainly have, the republican attack machine is already, IMHO, going against him. They were shopping Rezco stories to the networks just like the Clintons were. Just the other day in very liberal Eugene, Oregon my dad educated a friend of his about the fact that Obama is NOT a muslim. Where do these attacks come from? As a vote comes up in a state all those smear emails appear. That bespeaks a fairly sophisticated whisper campaign against him in terms of large email lists broken down to geographic location of the recepient, not a simple thing.

And yet, he's still standing.

Posted at February 10, 2008 10:48 PM in response to Obama Wins Maine By Large Margin, Signaling Dark Stretch Ahead For Hillary Camp

Ok, here goes...

-- Condoleeza Rice: You seem to have an over-inflated sense of just what the Senate's Advise and Consent power means. She was a perfectly qualified candidate, never mind your opinion of her decisions. At the end of the day it's the President's cabinet, he picks who he want's in it, the senate just get's to make sure the person can do the job.

-- The Patriot Act: He voted to reauthorize it only after more civil rights protections were added in. Would he liked to have more? Yes. But in a legislature there is no such thing as a perfect bill. Better to have some stronger protections then none at all.

-- Exelon isn't one of his biggest contributors, their employees are. Exelon is a big employer in Illinois so it stands to reason that many who work there might just like the guy enough to send him a check. Also again, his original bill was much stronger but it wouldn't become law. Better a weaker law then none at all. Again, there is no such thing as a perfect bill, this will remain true until the legislature is 100% partisan progressive Democrats. May that day never come, just look at what happens when partisan Republicans are the majority.

-- Campaign Contributions: You seem to be under the impression that corporations themselves donate to campaigns. They don't. Employees do. When you donate you have to list your ocupation and your employer. When opensecrets breaks down campaign contributions they lump all the employees of a particular business together. They even have a handy notice on the side of the breakdown that says that that is not a contribution from the corporation but from the employees that work there. I'm sure you just missed that part innocently.

On the class action thing, I dunno, never heard that Hillary supporter talking point before, I'll have to look into it.

Next?

Posted at February 10, 2008 8:54 PM in response to Obama Wins Maine By Large Margin, Signaling Dark Stretch Ahead For Hillary Camp

After all, it worked so well for Rudy. Hey, wait...

You can't tell me this is a purposeful strategy, any more then betting everything on Florida was the purposeful strategy for Rudy. It was the only avenue left to him so yeah he says that it was their plan all along. The simple answer tends to be the explanation.

The simple answer is that they expected to walk away with it on Super Tuesday. The nomination was to be hers on a gem studded platter. Everyone already knows her name. The Clinton's called in their markers and got a Super Tuesday crafted to seal the deal for Hillary early such that her margin was so huge everyone else would just drop out. The Clinton's brought in McAuliffe, one of the biggest names in Dem fundraising, a man known to be able to get blood from a stone. To this day she still leads with Superdelegates added in. Why? Because 55% of the Superdelegates that have said they side with her are DNC party insiders. Not governors. Not senators or congresspeople. DNC party insiders.

The simple answer is that the Obama campaign has outmaneuvered them. Your competition has instant name recognition? Go retail, voter by voter. Your competition has huge fundraising built over decades and a two term presidency? Go grassroots, get every $3, or $25, or $100 donation you can find. Your competition is being handed the election by party insiders? Run a 50 state strategy and get every delegate you can find everywhere, even places the establishment would normally ignore.

Win or loose when this is over people are going to study what Obama has managed to do for decades. She can still win, don't ever doubt it. She has such an insider advantage that it might simply not be possible for Obama to upset her. But win or loose you have to sit back and look at this thing from 50,000 feet and marvel at what he has manged thus far. Because this wasn't supposed to happen. The Clinton's never expected it would. And you can bet their staff is working feverishly to put Humpty Dumpty back together again before the end of February.

Posted at February 10, 2008 8:01 PM in response to Obama Wins Maine By Large Margin, Signaling Dark Stretch Ahead For Hillary Camp

And they say the Obama supporters are the ones with rose colored glasses...

Posted at February 10, 2008 6:14 PM in response to Breaking: Hillary Top Staff Being Reshuffled; Solis Doyle Replaced As Campaign Manager

I think he has a decent chance actually of winning at least one, maybe two. The thing to remember is that between South Carolina and Super Tuesday was what, 10 days of campaigning? 10 days and 22 states. He is going against a campaign with every institutional advantage imaginable, including a campaign schedule designed to give Hillary the knockout nod as quickly as possible.

He has time now and he's rolling in the endorsements. He got the biggest Ohio paper this weekend. He got a big Latino caucus endorsement in Texas this week. Now he has time to let that sink in and capitalize on them. Plus the current media story is pointing out how poll after poll shows him beating McCain and Hillary not beating him. This too will sink in. Time helps him and hurts her. If you watch her poll numbers they really don't change all that much which tells me she has attracted most all of the voters she will attract. She's kind of the default choice for everyone. Clinton? Yeah, I remember the Clinton's those were good times. Obama now has time to get good newspaper endorsements (helps more then you think to move older voters), he can flood the airwaves with TV, his ground operations can now focus on a few states instead of a large number of them.

It's going to be hard. It's going to be close. Hillary may still win. But I think he has a decent chance.

Posted at February 10, 2008 5:29 PM in response to Breaking: Hillary Top Staff Being Reshuffled; Solis Doyle Replaced As Campaign Manager

Wow, did the Hill-signal get sent out or something? Obama supporters at TPM, fire up HillSpin One!

Posted at February 10, 2008 5:18 PM in response to Breaking: Hillary Top Staff Being Reshuffled; Solis Doyle Replaced As Campaign Manager

I have researched my candidate.

I really like what I've learned.

Posted at February 10, 2008 1:22 AM in response to Obama Campaign: Tonight's Sweep Puts Us Ahead In Delegates