- He Said, She Said
- So Many Coincidences
- Full Text Of Obama's Big Race Speech: A Big Break With Political Precedent
- Obama's Lama Problem
- Harold Ickes Confirms That Wright Is Key Topic In Discussions With Super-Delegates
- Nonprofit Women's Voices Women Vote Stops Suspicious N.C. Robo Calls
- SurveyUSA: Hillary And Obama Win Electoral College In Distinct Ways
- Gallup: Obama's Big Race Speech Potentially Fixing Wright Situation
- P.S. I Lama You
- Don't They Know There's a World Out There?
Greg DeLassus
- : St Louis, MO
- : 31
- : Democratic
My theory vis-a-vis the current full throttle Clinton campaign
I have a theory. I am no genius and have no special connections to either campaign or the DNC, so my theory is nothing more than my own interpretation of the same data available to all of us. In other...more »
Posted on May 10, 2008 11:29 AM
Frivolous questions
1) Either Barack Obama's or Hillary Clinton's presidency would represent a historic first. As such, the odds are pretty good that either would end up on the money. Which denominations of bills/coins should each one get? 2) Gary Trudeau used...more »
Posted on May 5, 2008 4:08 PM
Friendly fire in the class war
A few penséss that have come to mind as a result of the exchanges of the last few days: 1) When did "limosine liberals" become an epithet on the tongues of democrats? I can understand why a republican like Spiro...more »
Posted on April 30, 2008 12:25 PM
Who is the bigger gamble, Obama or Clinton?
Well, everyone knows how I will answer this question. I am a Kool-Aid drunk Obamabot. Of course I think that Clinton is the bigger gamble. It seems to me, however, that the "Obama cannot win" line is only half the...more »
Posted on April 28, 2008 3:53 PM
Puerto Rico and the Popular vote
This is a question for those who think that the popular vote ought to count for something - should non-states count in that popular vote tally. I notice that, at present, RCP is including the totals from places like the...more »
Posted on April 24, 2008 5:21 PM
Clinton and the base - the "electability" argument
Much ado has recently been made about Sen Obama's demonstrated inability to win over certain important segments of the democratic base, viz. blue collar whites, older voters (especially older women) and hispanics. These exit poll trends have given rise to...more »
Posted on April 24, 2008 4:30 PM
He outspent her 10 to 1 in Pennsylvania!!!
Not really, but I notice that with each passing minute the legend of her victory-in-the-face-of-unprecedented-obstacles seems to grow in the writings of Gotalife, RStephen, Matthew Weaver, & al. By the end of the day I fully expect to read that...more »
Posted on April 23, 2008 4:31 PM
More People Have Now Voted For Me Than For My Opponent...
So said Sen Clinton this morning in an interview with Matt Lauer. But is it true? Who knows? Sen Clinton's claim is based upon a popular vote tabulation which includes MI & FL but omits IA, NV, ME & WA. ...more »
Posted on April 23, 2008 11:12 AM
The Republican response...
... to Sen Clinton's latest ad. I leave the reader to draw his/her own conclusions....more »
Posted on April 21, 2008 4:03 PM
The beginning of the end?
I have been confidently predicting for weeks now that Indiana would go for Obama. I thought that even before I made the trip to canvas there a few weeks back, but getting out and knocking on doors in Indianapolis only...more »
Posted on April 18, 2008 2:08 PM
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There is only one election tomorrow. How can a man lose by two landslides in one election?
Posted at May 12, 2008 7:11 PM in response to Obama Camp: We're Moving On To General Election States Now
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There is no recent polling out of PR. Only one poll has been taken there and it was taken from Mar 31 to Apr 5. It is, in other words, a month stale by now. I am not sure whether anyone is going to poll there again or whether the chips will just fall as they may without such predictions. That one poll showed Clinton 50, Obama 37, Undecided 13.
Posted at May 12, 2008 4:48 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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Indeed, your calculations match my own. I was using Agrippina's numbers to do my calculation, but when I use RCP's instead, I arrive at the same conclusion as yourself (see my other comment below).
Posted at May 12, 2008 4:17 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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Well, in that case, the "cancel each other out in delegate terms" part of my earlier post must be scrapped. Nonetheless, according to the numbers that Greg Sargent gives, KY is only expected to see about 500 thousand voters turn out in the democratic primary there. If you assume that she wins by the 33 pt margin she currently enjoys in the polls there, that amounts to a 167 thousand vote advantage to her. Meanwhile, Oregon expects to receive ~600 thousand votes in the mail by election day. If you figure that he wins by the 10 pts that he currently leads, then this amounts to a 60 thousand vote pick up for him. So she comes out 107 thousand votes ahead on the day. This should be enough to put her back on top of "the popular vote" race if you count MI, but not enough to put her ahead with FL but without MI.
Posted at May 12, 2008 4:15 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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While they have the same number of delegates, OR is expected to turn out about 100K more votes than is KY. As such, while they will likely cancel each other out in dleegate terms, he will emerge from that Tuesday's elections with a large lead in the popular vote race, for whatever little that is worth.
Posted at May 12, 2008 4:04 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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Wish I hadn't seen his continued support of "clean coal" today...
Well, on this much you and I can agree.
Posted at May 12, 2008 3:55 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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Interesting. I guess we will have to wait to see whether this actually pans out or not.
Posted at May 12, 2008 3:27 PM in response to AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States
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What was that above about the "bargaining" stage of grief? Evidently some are stalling in the "denial" stage.
Posted at May 12, 2008 3:24 PM in response to Obama Camp: We're Moving On To General Election States Now
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Surely you mean "victory," not "victories," no? Only WV votes tomorrow. KY (the next state that she is favored to win) does not vote for another week yet.
Posted at May 12, 2008 3:18 PM in response to Obama Camp: We're Moving On To General Election States Now
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I definitely hope that he plans to do some heavy campaigning in MO. I am heartsick that we went for Bush twice and determined to do my part to turn this state around and flip it blue this time, but it will take some effort. If Sen Obama will come and spend some time here talking to the good folks of this state, I am sure that will make the job for us volunteers much easier.
Posted at May 12, 2008 3:16 PM in response to Obama Camp: We're Moving On To General Election States Now
