- : California
- : Reality-Based
- : Democratic
- : "So long as human beings can gain sufficient co-operation from some to enable them to dominate others, they will use the forms of law as one of their instruments. Wicked men will enact wicked rules which others will enforce. What surely is most needed in order to make men clear-sighted in confronting the official abuse of power, is that they should preserve the sense that the certification of something as legally valid is not conclusive of the question of obedience, and that, however great the aura of majesty or authority which the official system may have, its demands must in the end be submitted to a moral scrutiny. This sense, that there is something outside the official system, by reference to which in the last resort the individual must solve his problems of obedience, is surely more likely to be kept alive among those who are accustomed to think that rules of law may be iniquitous, than among those who think that nothing iniquitous can anywhere have the status of law." - H.L.A. Hart
Hillary: Working-Class Whites are Suckers
Hillary's latest "electability" argument: While most of Obama's supporters would support me as the nominee, many of my supporters (i.e., working class whites) would vote for McCain over Obama.The subtext: Obama's supporters are smart; they understand their political, social, and economic...more »
Posted on May 8, 2008 12:28 PM
Hillary vs. Obama: Who Cares?
It's fitting that today, we should be reminded that George W. Bush is the most unpopular president in the history of modern polling. Gallup says: 69% disapproval, 28% approval.This is a great reminder that it doesn't matter -- no, it doesn't matter -- who...more »
Posted on April 22, 2008 1:54 PM
Selfish Superdelegates
The uncommitted superdelegates will not go against the will of the voters; they will vote for the candidate who won the most pledged delegages (i.e., Obama). Let's take a look at that bit of conventional wisdom. Does it hold up? ...more »
Posted on March 25, 2008 3:13 PM
Hillary is Secretly Helping Obama
You Obamaniacs better quit your whining about Hillary acting as a McCain surrogate. This helps Obama. This is a huge help to Obama."Hillary can't win, so she should just drop out and let Obama focus on McCain!" The moment that Hillary drops...more »
Posted on March 6, 2008 7:20 PM
The Mother of All Spoilers
It looks like the TPM crew will have to find something else to keep them busy for the next nine months:Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early...more »
Posted on February 25, 2008 10:39 PM
Josh Nails It
Once again, Josh cuts through the noise to make an incisive point: the superdelegates are unlikely to decide the Democratic nomination.The majority of the superdelegates have not yet committed. Why? Because they are politicians (or, similarly, political operatives) who made a risk-averse political...more »
Posted on February 14, 2008 6:12 PM
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The poor Hillary campaign -- everyone in the world knows that Edwards is jumping on the bandwagon only after it's completely safe. But Hillary & Co. can't say that; it contradicts their vehement claims that Hillary has a chance to win. They have to tread Edwards' endorsement as a choice between two viable candidates.
It will be interesting to see if a Hillary surrogate slips and accuses Edwards of opportunism. Accusing Edwards of opportunism is an implicit admission that Hillary can't win.
Posted at May 14, 2008 6:49 PM in response to Edwards Will Endorse Obama Today
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Interesting point, that goes straight to the heart of the stylistic difference between Hillary and Obama. Obama's goal will be to educate the "suckers" -- to teach them that no, the GOP has screwed you every time and will screw you again, and that yes, the Democrats are on your side and won't surrender to the terrorists.
In short, Obama will teach voters what they really need. Hillary, in contrast, will make voters think she is what they think they need.
Posted at May 8, 2008 1:57 PM in response to Hillary: Working-Class Whites are Suckers
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Greg, I do not think that numbers 1-3 are essential to Hillary's "game plan." Numbers 4-9 are her game plan for winning the nomination despite losing the pledged-delegate count. Numbers 1-3 are merely the preconditions needed to give her game plan a fighting chance.
The fact is, Hillary is going to fight even if she doesn't have a fighting chance. After having fought for so hard, for so long, she is going to live out her "Rocky" analogy and keep punching until the final bell rings in August.
The only way Hillary's game plan will not be implemented is if Obama dominates the remaining primares AND there is a mass movement of unpledged delegates to Obama. Unless both these things happen, Hillary is going to go for broke. The answer to your "outstanding question" is yes.
Posted at April 25, 2008 3:00 PM in response to Hillary's Game Plan -- A Path To Victory?
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Yes, there are differences between Clinton and Obama, but those differences pale in comparison to the differences between both Democrats and McCain.
It's like comparing Coke, Pepsi, and antifreeze. Personally, I prefer Coke over Pepsi, but I'd drink Pepsi over antifreeze any day.
Posted at April 22, 2008 2:17 PM in response to Hillary vs. Obama: Who Cares?
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The news isn't that hyper-conservative groups are preparing to attack the nominee. As other commenters have already stated, duh. The news is that:
1. Even the whacko hyper-conservatives have realized that Obama will be the nominee.
2. The attack groups are having to put together a book on Obama, as opposed to merely dusting off their multi-volume series on Hillary.
Posted at April 7, 2008 5:49 PM in response to Conservatives Planning New Attack Group for Election
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Actually, a 50/50 split of delegates will decrease the margin between Hillary and Obama. Any given number of delegates will be worth more, percentage-wise, to the candidate who has fewer to begin with.
Let's say you have 100 delegates and I have 90. That's a 53/47 split.
Then we divide 20 delegates evenly. Now you have 110 and I have 100. Run the math: the split is now 52/48. I have narrowed the gap.
Granted, the effect from MI will be very slight because the number of Michigan delegates is very small compared to the number of total delegates. But it's not quite correct to say that a 50/50 split will make no difference at all.
Posted at April 4, 2008 7:53 PM in response to Obama Campaign Calls For 50-50 Split Of Michigan Delegates
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Bingo. The "popular vote" metric gives Hillary an enormous amount of wiggle room. And here's what I'll bet all comers, dollars to doughnuts:
No matter what happens, Hillary is going to claim that she won the popular vote. The only question is what metric of "popular vote" counting she will use.
Only primary states? Probably.
Including MI and FL? Certainly.
She can also point to "swing" states, saying those are the ones that really count. (Of course, which states will be swing states in 2008 is a matter of debate, and you can bet that Hillary's swing states will add up to a popular-vote win for her.)
Maybe she'll say that the big states are the only ones that count, and that she won the popular vote in those states.
No matter what, there will be some way she can claim she won the popular vote, or at least the popular vote that "counts." Bet on it.
Posted at April 3, 2008 5:28 PM in response to Some Top Hillary Hands Concluding She Can't Win Nomination Without Popular Vote
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Those Founding Fathers sure were assholes.
Posted at April 2, 2008 4:37 PM in response to Feith: Only "Assholes" Fret about Torture
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So if Obama is on the ticket, but only as VP, the GOP will ignore his "lies"?
They'll attack him if he's on the ticket at the #1 spot, but not at #2?
Obama has radioactive liabilities and would go down in flames as the presidential nominee -- but wouldn't hurt the ticket as the VP nominee?
Fascinating logic.
Posted at April 1, 2008 2:15 PM in response to Gallup: Dems Like Hillary/Obama Ticket, But Say "No" To Obama/Hillary
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Obama needs to start a Howard Dean-style push for the DCCC. Urge all his supporters to contribute to the DCCC, with contributions all ending in some strange amount like .86 (because Hillary is willing to 86 the chances of Democratic Congressional candidates).
Posted at March 26, 2008 7:16 PM in response to Obama Camp Hammers Letter To Pelosi As "Inappropriate" -- Demands Hillary Reject It
