Although Hillary Clinton has asked her delegates to support Barack Obama, one particular delegate is taking the polar-opposite route. Debra Bartoshevich, a Hillary pledged delegate from Wisconsin, has now announced that she's supporting John McCain.

"I'm sure people are going to be upset with me," Bartoshevich told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "I don't want to lose my national delegate status."

Bartoshevich is upset at Hillary Clinton's loss, and quoted the great suffragette Susan B. Anthony as an inspiration: "No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her."

Late Update: State Dems have voted to file a complaint at the Credentials Committee in Denver, moving to strip Bartoshevich of her delegate status.

In a huge blow to Hillary's hopes, such as they are, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has now voted in favor of a compromise measure for Michigan, giving 69 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton and 59 to Barack Obama at a half-vote each.

This effectively ends Hillary's bid to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations in full -- which she was hoping for in a last-ditch effort to close the delegate count and, more importantly for her campaign's moral arguments, to try to narrow Obama's unofficial popular vote lead.

Still, Hillary's chief delegate counter, Harold Ickes, seemed to signal that there's still a possibility that she might fight on. In a harsh tone of voice, Ickes told the committee that Hillary personally informed him that she reserves the right to take the dispute over Michigan to the Credentials Committee in Denver, on the grounds that the committee had no right to transfer "Uncommitted" votes over to Obama.

The 69-59 measure was put forth by the state party's leadership, with Sen. Carl Levin arguing for full voting rights for each delegate. It remains to be seen whether he will fight on over the question of half-votes, or whether the matter is now effectively over.

The vote was 19 in favor to eight opposed, less than the unanimity received by the Florida half-vote compromise.

Hillary's total advantage in pledged delegates for Michigan and Florida is now set at +24 -- well short of the advantage of more than +100 that she once hypothetically enjoyed.

A new pair of polls in Oregon give Barack Obama a big lead going into tomorrow's primary, a contest that is expected to clinch a majority of pledged delegates for him:

SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 42%

Sample size: 627 likely and actual primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Public Policy Polling (D)
Obama 58%
Clinton 39%

Sample size: 1,296 likely and actual primary voters.
Margin of error: ±2.7%.

From PPP's analysis: "Obama has likely pretty much won the election already. Oregon votes by mail, and he is polling at 59% with the 74% of poll respondents who reported already having cast their ballots."

These polls both run counter to a Suffolk poll from earlier today, which had shown it to be a close race.

In a sign that they are likely to declare victory in the presidential primary very soon, the Obama campaign is now boasting in a memo to reporters that they are on the cusp of winning the pledged-delegate majority, thanks to the endorsement from John Edwards and a group of his delegates.

By the Obama campaign's math, they are only 17 elected delegates away from the pledged-del majority, a number that they are guaranteed to pull off next week in Oregon and Kentucky. Expect them to court super-delegates to break their way en masse after that happens, on the basis that Obama has the popular mandate to be the nominee.

Here's another effect of the John Edwards endorsement that has passed unnoticed.

If Obama gets the support of the vast majority of Edwards' delegates, which is likely, that will mean that Obama could potentially secure a majority of pledged delegates on May 20 -- even if Florida and Michigan are fully seated.

Assuming that Obama is awarded all of the uncommitted slots from Michigan and also wins the support of all the Edwards delegates from Florida, that gives Hillary a total gain of 178 delegates from these two states to 135 for Obama, plus all 18 remaining Edwards delegates from other states switching to Obama.

As such, Obama would have 1,752 total pledged dels to Clinton's 1,625 for Clinton, and only need 32 more delegates to get the new pledged-del majority number of 1,784. A strong win in Oregon and a decent showing in Kentucky would be all that's necessary to pull that off.

In a first indication of that John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama has carried some weight, an Edwards pledged delegate from New Hampshire has now announced his support for Obama, as well.

Edwards' pledged delegates are not required by the rules to follow his support for Obama, though as former activists for their candidate they would no doubt be influenced by his recommendation. Edwards has another 18 delegates up for grabs -- and if they mostly end up going for Obama, it would be enough to wipe out Hillary Clinton's gains from West Virginia.

In a further sign that even many Clinton supporters don't see her winning the nomination, another delegate has defected from Hillary Clinton over to Barack Obama -- and in this case it's a pledged delegate, not a super.

Jack B. Johnson, the executive of Prince George's County, Maryland, was elected as a pledged delegate for Hillary in the February 12 primary. However, he now says Obama has won the nomination, and he will support him at the convention: "I cannot in good conscience go to the convention and not support Barack."

In an interview with Mark Halperin, Hillary Clinton again put out the idea that pledged delegates do not have to stick with the candidate they were elected to back: "We talk a lot about so-called pledged delegates, but every delegate is expected to exercise independent judgment."

Hillary spokesman Phil Singer told reporters yesterday that such a statement of the rules is "not a cause for hysteria," and denied having any plans to try and recruit Barack Obama's delegates, while campaign strategist Harold Ickes was much more equivocal on the subject.

During a conference call just now with reporters, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes fell short of denying that Hillary Clinton would pursue efforts to convert pledged delegates for Barack Obama over to her side, as she said yesterday is possible under the rules.

"I think what Mrs. Clinton was trying to make clear is that no delegate is required by party rules to vote for the candidate for which they're pledged," Ickes said. "Now obviously circumstances can change, and people's minds can change about the viability of a particular candidate, and that's permitted under our rules ever since the 1980 convention."

Campaign spokesman Phil Singer then jumped in to dial back any impression that the campaign would be attempting this: "It is still our position that we are not asking pledged delegates for Sen. Obama to flip over. That is a rule, but we are not engaged in any efforts, so please don't make a mistake about that."

Singer added later in the call, "I know there's always a temptation to read something into everything, but simply stating a fact is not a cause for hysteria."

During an interview with the Philadelphia Daily News editorial board, Hillary Clinton again pitched the idea that she can close the gap in the pledged delegate count — by pointing out that pledged delegates can always switch their votes.

"And also remember that pledged delegates in most states are not pledged," said Clinton. "You know, there is no requirement that anybody vote for anybody. They’re just like super-delegates."

Hillary previously hinted at such a strategy about two weeks ago, while over a month ago the campaign had to deny reports that they would attempt such a thing.

A few weeks ago the Clinton campaign shot down a report that they would seek to entice Barack Obama's pledged delegates into flipping over. Now the idea is being floated again — by Hillary herself.

"There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and super-delegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose," Hillary told Newsweek, when asked how she can win the nomination despite the current delegate math.

"Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process."

(Via Mark Halperin)

Late Update: Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer e-mailed Election Central to say that his previous statement on this — that the Hillary camp has not and will not pursue Obama's pledged delegates — is still operative and that there's been no change of position. It's worth noting that in the Newsweek interview, Hillary didn't say outright that she would be pursuing them, and merely stated what the rules governing the delegates are (which can be read as implying possible pursuit of them later, of course).

The Hillary Clinton campaign has reportedly thought up a new strategy for winning the Democratic nomination that is even more divisive than the super-delegate route: Going after Obama's elected delegates and offering them various reasons to switch. "I swear it is not happening now, but as we get closer to the convention, if it is a stalemate, everybody will be going after everybody’s delegates," a senior campaign official told the Politico. "All the rules will be going out the window."

There are several problems with this strategy, including the fact that elected delegates are all dedicated activists for their candidates. Beyond that, such a strategy would leave the party at least as divided as a super-delegate win, if not worse, and make any chance of victory in November nearly impossible — thus seriously diminishing the credibility of any offers made to the delegates. But at a bare minimum, this report may just dominate press coverage for the next few days.

This is big news, and may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy. The New York Times reports that Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a legend of the civil rights movement who had endorsed Hillary last year, is switching his super-delegate vote from her over to Barack Obama.

Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.

In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.

On that conference call earlier, Hillary spokesman Howard Wolfson signaled what will be the Hillary camp's main argument when the spin wars over super-delegates start in earnest: Neither candidate can win this race without super-delegates.

Wolfson repeated variations of this point multiple times on the call.

Just doing the math quickly on this, NBC calculates that Obama leads Hillary in pledged delegates, 1,078 to 969. To get to the required total of 2,025, Obama would have to win virtually all the remaining 1,000 or so non-super delegates. So, yes, the winner will obviously need super-delegates.

The Obama camp will frame the coming argument, then, by saying that as a whole, the supers should follow the will of the people and back the leader in pledged delegates. The Hillary campaign will counter that super-delegates should be left to make up their own minds as to who they think can better lead the country.

But the argument is going to get messy.

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