MSNBC and ABC call McCain's "last stand" state for Obama.

That's a very early call, suggesting a big, big win.

More soon.

Late Update: The exit polls suggest that Obama won solid victories among key groups: He won among voters with only a high-school education, among Catholics, decisively among independents, among men, white women, among whites making under $50,000, and among voters of all age groups, including 65 or over.

Late Late Update: Fox calls the state for Obama, too.

Late Late Late Update: MSNBC exits show that Dems who wanted Hillary to win the primary went for Obama overwhelmingly, 81%-19%.

Fox News and other conservatives on the Web are pushing hard on the story that two black panthers may be intimidating voters at a polling place in north Philadelphia.

But an Obama campaign volunteer who's been on the scene since 6:30 AM this morning tells me in a phone interview that there's been absolutely no intimidation of voters at all today. And a Pennsylvania spokesperson for Obama said the two men aren't in any way affiliated with the campaign.

Fox News' story is right here. It says one of two black panthers on the scene was "allegedly blocking the door," says another was "holding a nightstick." and adds that "the concern was that they were intimidating people who were trying to go inside to vote."

But Jacqueline Dischell, the Obama volunteer, tells me by phone that that's false.

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SurveyUSA has its final polls out in the big swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and both show Barack Obama ahead.

The numbers from Florida show a very narrow advantage for Barack Obama -- thanks in large part to the campaign's early-vote campaign. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, a three-point lead with a ±3.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain had a 49%-47% edge.

The internals show Obama winning the early vote 58%-40%, with an estimated 58% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain wins the remaining likely voters 56%-38%, helping him to close the gap somewhat.

The ultimate result, then, depends on how many voters there really are left, and to what degree they break for McCain.

On top of that, their final poll from Pennsylvania doesn't show any good news for McCain. Obama has a lead of nine points, 52%-43%, compared to yesterday's poll that showed a 51%-44% Obama lead. If Obama picks up red states like Florida or other big gets like Virginia, and McCain can't poach Pennsylvania from the Democratic column, it will be a very bad night for the GOP.

A Democrat forwards me the internal talking points that the Obama campaign is distributing today to surrogates, instructing them to discuss the end of the race by discounting the polls and touting the campaign's Pennsylvania operation as a sign of the campaign's overall strength:

Everyone knows this is going to be a close race -- and we don't pay attention to the polls. We're going to continue to put 110 percent into this effort, and we're confident that it will pay dividends on Election Day.

Just to give you a sense of the scale of our operation, take a look at what we're doing in Pennsylvania alone: This weekend, volunteers knocked on more than 1.8 million doors and made 1.2 million phone calls -- in Pennsylvania alone.

The talking points also tell surrogates to stress the fact that Obama returned today to the site in Florida where McCain committed his original "fundamentals of the economy are strong" gaffe. For those of you who like this sort of stuff, the full talking points are after the jump.

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A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.

PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.

Barack Obama In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia; Michelle In Nevada And Colorado
Barack Obama has a morning rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, and will then finish out the campaign with a 9 p.m. ET rally in Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will hold a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Littleton, Colorado.

Biden In Missouri, Ohio -- And Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Lee's Summit, Missouri, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Copley, Ohio, and finally a 10 p.m. ET rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

McCain In Six States Today
John McCain has a very busy schedule for the final day of the campaign: An 8:55 a.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, an 11:45 a.m. rally in Blountville, Tennessee; a 1:50 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Indianapolis; an 8 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico; and a 10:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada. The inclusion of Tennessee seems rather curious -- this one is widely viewed as a safe state, and he could probably spend his time more usefully in other states.

Palin Doing Six Events In Five States
Sarah Palin also has a very big day ahead of her: A 9:15 a.m. ET rally in Lakewood, Ohio; a 1 p.m. ET rally in Jefferson City, Missouri; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Dubuque, Iowa; a 7:45 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs; an 11:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada; and a 1:30 a.m. ET rally in Elko, Nevada.

Roughly 27 Million Votes Already Cast
The Associated Press reports that over 27 million ballots were already cast up through Saturday night, the most recent time for which the data is available. Polling data suggests that Barack Obama has carried the early vote handily this year, meaning that John McCain will need to win the votes cast on Election Day by a strong margin.

McCain: Tuesday We "Take America In A New Direction"
John McCain declared at a midnight rally in Miami, "There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction." The heckling opportunities on this one are just too obvious.

The Pennsylvania GOP goes up with its own ad hitting Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright:

We were unable to immediately confirm details of the buy.

It's worth noting that the McCain campaign's claim that Pennsylvania is within reach -- and could be key to a McCain victory -- has prompted outside groups allied with McCain to really get serious about hosing down the state with slime. Most recently we had the Republican Jewish Coalition's flyer yesterday saying a vote for Obama could be a vote for a second Holocaust, and now today's Wright ad. More soon, we trust.

An Obama aide emails to say that Joe Biden will make a stop in Pennsylvania tomorrow, a sign that the Obama campaign is taking McCain-Palin's big push in the state somewhat seriously, contrary to some conjecture.

Biden's planned trip to the state -- the only stop that either Dem is making in a Kerry state today or tomorrow -- comes as a new SurveyUSA poll has Obama's lead shrinking: He's now up seven points, 51%-44%, compared to a 12-point lead, 53%-41%, a week ago. Meanwhile, today's daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg has Obama up seven points, 52%-45%, compared to an 11-point lead, 52%-41%, a week ago.

Obama is still favored to win Pennsylvania. But it will probably be a much closer margin than the double-digit leads that Obama had racked up just a few weeks ago. Biden's job will partly be to keep any Obama soft-supporters right where they are.

Separately, Ben Smith and Avi Zenilman have a good piece this morning on the racial aspects of the unions' massive efforts to win over blue-collar whites in the Rust Belt states, something that we've been obsessed with here and in our view has gotten far too little attention.

McCain Playing Defense In Home Stretch -- Including Arizona
John McCain is spending the final days of the election by almost entirely playing defense in states won by George W. Bush in 2004. And perhaps most ominously for him, his final Election Eve rally will be held at midnight in his home state of Arizona, where the polls are close and the Obama campaign has just announced a new wave of advertising.

Obama In Nevada, Colorado And Missouri; Biden in Indiana And Ohio
Barack Obama is holding a 10 a.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada, a a 5 p.m. ET rally in Pueblo, Colorado, and a late-evening rally in Springfield, Missouri, with the latter two also featuring Michelle Obama. Joe Biden is holding an 11 a.m. ET rally in Evansville, Indiana, a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Marion, Ohio, and a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Bowling Green, Ohio;

McCain In Virginia And Pennsylvania; Palin In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia
John McCain has a 9 a.m. ET rally in Newport News, Virginia, a 12 p.m. ET rally in Springfield, Virginia, and a 3 p.m. ET rally in Perkasie, Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin has a very busy day ahead of her: A 9 a.m. ET rally in New Port Richey, Florida; an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Polk City, Florida; a 2 p.m. ET rally in Ocala, Florida; a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh, North Carolina; and a 9:30 p.m. ET rally in Glen Allen, Virginia.

Poll: Possible Tightening In Pennsylvania
A new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Barack Obama a lead of four points, narrower than other pollsters out there have shown. The numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error, compared to a 53%-46% Obama lead from a few days ago.

Former Bush Speechwriter: We're Already Seeing The GOP "Circular Firing Squad"
Former George W. Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson has predicted that the post-election Republican Party, assuming it suffers a massive defeat as many people expect, will not be a pretty sight. "Usually a loss results in a circular firing squad of recrimination and anger, not a healthy discussion of the directions of the future," said Gerson. "And the reality is we're already beginning to see that right now."

Obama Does Radio Ads For Down-Ticket Dems
Barack Obama has taped two radio ads for Dem House candidates running against moderate GOP incumbents. Here are the ads for Dan Seals of Illinois and Jim Himes of Connecticut:

The incumbent Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Christopher Shays (R-CT) are both in districts that Obama is likely to carry by landslides, and Obama's coattails might be enough to carry Seals and Himes over the finish line against incumbents who probably would have won under more normal circumstances.

So has John McCain's big play for Pennsylvania, where he's hoping to poach 21 electoral votes out of the Democratic column, been paying off in the opinion polls?

The answer: Not in any way to speak of -- even though McCain and Palin have have each visited the state many times in the last two weeks, and Palin is herself spending all of today there.

McCain's own level of support has recovered somewhat from a deep hole he was in weeks ago -- when the economic crisis hit, he was down by as much as 15 points -- but his gains haven't significantly weakened Barack Obama's position. McCain has simply grabbed back some of his lost support from the undecided column, but Obama hasn't actually lost much from what he gained during the same period.

The graph from Pollster.com illustrates the situation very clearly:

Only two polls in the last week, from Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision (R), have put Obama below 50% support, while most others have him above that key level. For example, CNN has Obama up 55%-43%, and the local college Franklin & Marshall has him up 53%-40%.

Obama should still be expected to score a decent-sized victory here, unless the polls turn out to be drastically wrong or show a dramatic swing to McCain in the next few days.

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.

Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.

McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:

"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"

Last Friday we reported here that McCain's Pennsylvania spokesperson fed local reporters a highly incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on the McCain volunteer well before the facts were in, telling reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's face stood for Barack.

The McCain campaign has now denied the story on two separate occasions, faulting TPM's reporting on it.

"The liberal blog post" has "no basis in fact," a McCain spokesperson has now told Channel 4 in Pittsburgh, in a reference to our story. Before that, McCain national spokesperson Brian Rogers denied the story to MSNBC, claiming sloppy reporting by the Pennsylvania reporters.

Let's be as clear as possible here: Two separate news organizations in Pennsylvania are on record saying that McCain's Pennsylvania spokesperson gave them the incendiary version of the story.

Either those news organizations independently decided to lie and smear the McCain campaign in identical ways, or the McCain campaign is lying in its denials.

Let's go over what happened.

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The newest polls in the big three swing states paint a very clear picture: Obama seems to be pulling away in Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Florida, while his big lead in Pennsylvania is holding steady.

Here are all the latest polls from just the last few days, beginning with some new Quinnipiac polling out this morning:

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%

Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

McCain is trying to make a last stand in Pennsylvania, but there's really no evidence that it is in any way working at all. And without Pennsylvania, if he loses either Ohio or Florida, both of them Bush states, then the game is basically over.

A new set of polls from Strategic Vision (R) has some good news for John McCain, with him taking back leads in Florida and Ohio, and holding on to his lead Georgia. But all his work in Pennsylvania has only managed to make a small dent in Obama's lead:

• Florida: McCain 48%, Obama 46%, within the ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 52%-44% lead.

• Georgia: McCain 51%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain was up 50%-43%.

• Ohio: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 48%-46% edge.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. This is better for McCain than the 54%-40% Obama lead from two weeks ago, but he still hasn't managed t drag Obama to below 50%.

The most recent polls in Florida and Ohio have been a mixed bag, though on balance they've favored Obama. McCain has a small lead in most new Georgia polls, though an Insideradvantage poll from this morning put Obama up by one point. And every poll out there has been giving Obama a significant lead in Pennsylvania.

Still more stunning numbers, from today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy...

Senator Obama...is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.

"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.

McCain is now preferred on foreign policy by only two to six points -- way too close for comfort on his signature issue. Now, it's true that the foreign policy numbers shift depending on how the question is asked. For instance, if you phrase the question around who is better prepared to handle terrorism or international crises, you might get different numbers.

Still, the fact that McCain's foreign policy advantage is nearly non-existent in the three biggest battlegrounds -- despite McCain's attacks on Obama as basically unable or perhaps unwilling to prevent terrorists from blowing you up -- is pretty startling, and may help explain why he's doing so well with blue-collar whites in those states, too.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the three largest swing states. Obama is ahead 49%-44% in Florida, 52%-38% in Ohio, and 53%-40% in Pennsylvania. The Ohio result seems like an outlier compared to other recent polls showing a tight race, but the others are not unreasonable.

Obama In Indiana, Then Off To Hawaii; Biden In North Carolina
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 11 a.m. ET this morning in Indianapolis, before leaving the campaign trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Joe Biden is campaigning in North Carolina, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Charlotte, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Winston-Salem, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh.

McCain In Florida; Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is kicking off his officially-themed "Joe The Plumber" rallies, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Osmond Beach, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding a 1 p.m. ET rally in Troy, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Beaver, Pennsylvania.

Mellencamp In New Radio Ad: Obama Is The One For Small-Town Voters
The Obama campaign has a radio ad in Indiana featuring the state's favorite son John Mellencamp, whose famous "I was born in a small town" lyrics puts him in a good position to subtly rebut any objections to Obama's own "small town" gaffe from April:

Click To Play

"But now I'm seeing small towns across America dying," Mellencamp says. "Folks losing their jobs and their homes. Eight years of George Bush have really hurt. And John McCain is just more of the same."

Another Poll Shows Narrow Obama Lead In North Carolina
A new poll from North Carolina-based Marshall Marketing gives Barack Obama a 48%-46% in this newly-minted swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In their previous poll from two weeks ago, McCain had a 48%-46% edge.

Obama At Rally: "This Looks Like The Real Virginia To Me"
At a rally yesterday in Leesburg, Virginia, Barack Obama rebutted the "Real Virginia" comments of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer. "I know some folks may not think so, but this looks like the real Virginia to me," Obama said. "This looks like authentic Virginia and y'all look like a bunch of Virginians."

Schwarzenegger: Palin Will Be Ready By Inauguration Day
In an interview aired yesterday evening on CNN, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger did his best to defend Sarah Palin's qualifications. When asked whether Palin is ready and qualified, the Terminator answered: "By the time that she is sworn in I think she will be ready."

In the latest step in their plan for an upset win in Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign is reportedly scaling back its planned ad buys in five other states -- New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota -- to free up money for Pennsylvania and a few other key swing states.

The campaign is spreading out the advertising time it's already bought in these states for the coming week, and will instead stretch it across the final two weeks of the campaign. It's unclear whether the campaign has committed to buying this time and can't back out, or whether they view it as a compromise between staying the course or pulling out entirely.

The key here is what the McCain campaign thinks it can do in Pennsylvania. The state has 21 electoral votes, and it hasn't voted Republican since 1988. If they can overcome their current steep deficit and poach it out of the Democratic column, they could afford to lose Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia and still pull out a win if they can hold on to all the other Bush 2004 states.

Obama Cancels Campaign Events To Visit Ill Grandmother
Barack Obama is canceling his campaign events on Thursday and Friday, in order to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Madelyn Dunham's health has taken a turn for the worse, and the situation serious enough to merit the candidate canceling two days of campaigning during the final two weeks of the campaign.

Obama In Florida, Biden In Colorado
Barack Obama is campaigning in Florida today, with a 10:30 a.m. ET policy summit on jobs in Lake Worth, and a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Miami alongside Michelle Obama. Michelle Obama is also holding an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Pensacola. Joe Biden is swinging through Colorado today, with a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Greeley and a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in Commerce City.

McCain In Pennsylvania, Palin In Nevada
John McCain is campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a state where he hopes to overcome a serious gap in the polls and take 21 electoral votes away from the Democratic column. First McCain has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Bensalem, followed by a 2 p.m. ET rally in Harrisburg, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township. Sarah Palin is campaigning in Nevada, with a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno and a 4:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson.

McCain Banking On Pennsylvania
CNN reports that the McCain campaign is increasingly viewing Colorado as a goner for them -- even as they dispatched Sarah Palin there yesterday for a full day of campaigning -- and are looking at a way to win the Electoral College by snatching a Kerry state away from Obama. The strategy is now relying heavily on Pennsylvania, where Obama is ahead in the polls by around ten points.

McCain Campaign Making Appeal For Divided Government
The McCain is falling back on a new argument for the home stretch of the campaign: That a Republican should be elected president as a check on what is expected to be a large Democratic majority in Congress. "That argument is a bank shot," McCain strategist Charlie Black told the Boston Globe. "We're reminding them that by considering Obama they're delivering a monopoly to liberal Democrats."

McCain: My Robocalls Are True, Obama's Ads Are Lies
Appearing this morning on CBS's The Early Show, John McCain defended his robocall saying that Barack Obama has "worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers." "That robocall is absolutely accurate," McCain said. "And, by the way, Sen. Obama's campaign is running robocalls as we speak. He's running an ad that distorts -- that's untrue about my immigration position, about stem cell research, and about several other issues."

A new pair of Marist polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the two big swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and it may well be that Pennsylvania no longer should even be called a swing state.

In Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had a 47%-45% lead.

In Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, well outside the ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead a month ago. This is consistent with other polls that have shown Obama taking a double-digit lead here.

The polls also show that Obama's favorability ratings are much better than McCain's. In Ohio, Obama is at 60% favorable and 37% unfavorable, compared to 54%-44% favorability for McCain. In Pennsylvania, Obama is at 65%-34%, and McCain at 55%-43%.

Here's a campaign appearance that could have gone a little better. Sarah Palin stopped in at tonight's Philadelphia Flyers game to ceremonially drop the first puck -- and was met by an arena full of booing.

"Flyers fans, please welcome the best-known hockey mom in the United States," the announcer said. What happened next cannot exactly be described as a warm welcome:

(Via Daily Kos)

A new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania suggests that this big Dem-leaning swing state, where John McCain has been making a major play, may have slipped away from him for good.

The numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 40%. Obama is ahead 52%-43% among men, ahead 57%-38% with women, and even leads 49%-45% among white voters.

The McCain campaign had high hopes that they could take advantage of Obama's problems with working-class whites during the state's primary. But more and more polls, such as Muhlenberg, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, are showing Obama way ahead here.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new set of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in all three of the largest swing states: He's up 51%-43% in Florida, 50%-42% in Ohio, and 54%-39% in Pennsylvania, all outside the ±3.4% margins of error. Three weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Obama ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but behind by seven points in Florida. The reason for Obama's surge: The economy.

Bill Clinton Campaigning For Obama Today
Bill Clinton is holding two rallies for Barack Obama today in Florida, after spending months being criticized for showing too little enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee. The first event is at 12 p.m. ET in Orlando, and the next one in Fort Pierce at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Obama In Wisconsin, Then Back To The Senate
Barack Obama has a campaign rally at 11 a.m. ET in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and is then heading back to Washington for a vote on the revised bailout package. Joe Biden does not have any public events, but is preparing for the debate and will also attend the Senate vote. Michelle Obama is holding two rallies today, one at 12 p.m. ET in Boulder, Colorado, and the other at 6:10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri.

McCain In Missouri And Then Washington, Palin In Debate Camp
John McCain is campaigning this morning in Independence, Missouri, and will then head back to Washington tonight's big Senate vote on the revised bailout. Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail, preparing for tomorrow's debate with Joe Biden.

McCain: I Take Strong Exception To Accusations That My Campaign Is Lying
John McCain met yesterday with the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, where he had a very tense exchange over whether his campaign has been honest in its personal attacks against Barack obama:

McCain was asked how he can inspire confidence with less than 100% absolute truth in his campaign. "Because I've always had 100% absolute truth, and that's been my life of putting my country first, and I'll match that record against anyone's, and I'm proud of it," McCain said. "And an assertion that I've ever done otherwise, I take strong exception to."

The McCain campaign has this new radio ad hammering Joe Biden's "no coal plants" gaffe, a serious economic issue in coal-producing states, with ads running in the battleground states of Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Here's the Ohio version:

"No coal plants here in America," Biden says. "We're not supporting clean coal."

"No coal plants in America?" the announcer says in disbelief. "No jobs in Ohio? No energy independence for America?"

At the time, the Obama camp jumped to say that Biden's remarks were taken out of context -- that he was criticizing China for building old-fashioned dirty coal plants, and that Obama and Biden support investments in cleaner coal technologies.

That said, the McCain campaign clearly sees this gaffe as a wedge issue they can use in the swing states to undercut Obama's superior reputation on economic issues.