Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The GOP may be panicking in the face of more poll numbers showing serious losses from the economic crisis, with a new round of nasty attack ads against the Dem candidates.

Another Poll Shows GOP Sen. Dole Losing Re-Election
The new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) trailing her Dem opponent Kay Hagan by a 46%-38% margin. PPP has tended to be the most favorable for Hagan, but even this lead is the widest one they've registered yet -- and on top of that, they've received corroboration from Rasmussen polls showing a narrow Hagan lead.

GOP Ad: Dem Challenger Is So Irresponsible, She Should Be On Wall St.
The NRSC is trying to make the economic crisis work for them in an odd place: The North Carolina Senate race, where economic anxiety has put incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) behind Dem challenger Kay Hagan in the polls:

"Balanced? That's a hoax -- Hagan just borrowed the money," the announcer says. "Maybe Hagan should skip Washington -- and go straight to Wall St."

One is reminded of a line from the fictionalized Pappy O'Daniel in O Brother, Where Art Thou?: "How we gonna run reform when we're the damn incumbent?"

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New McCain Ad: Obama "Dangerously Unprepared" To Deal With Iran
The McCain campaign has a new ad out, which the campaign says will run in "key states," attacking Obama as "dangerously unprepared to be president" and confront the threat of Iran. The ad -- and it's a good question whether this will seriously run anywhere -- seems tailor-made to counter today's Dem convention theme of national security:

Tonight: Bill Clinton And Joe Biden To Address Convention
Tonight's theme for the Democratic Convention is national security, but two speakers in particular will get the most attention: Bill Clinton, who will have the tough job of following Hillary's speech for unity from last night, and Joe Biden, whose role will be to tear into John McCain as Barack Obama's running mate.

Obama In Montana Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Billings, Montana, a state that has been improbably brought into contention this election season.

McCain Off The Trail Today
John McCain does not have any announced public events for today.

NYT: Obama Camp Falling Short Of Fundraising Goals
The New York Times reports that the Obama campaign's fundraising totals, while impressive, are not enough to truly make it worth the time and effort he has to spend on fundraising in order to make up for the public money he has foregone. A source of the problem: Anemic fundraising from former Hillary Clinton donors, who only give about $4 million in June and July.

Don Young Just Barely Ahead In Alaska Primary
After a close vote count all night long, scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young of Alaska seems to be just barely fending off primary challenger Sean Parnell -- which would drastically raise the Dems' chances of winning this seat in a deep-red state. With 97.9% of precincts reporting, Young is ahead by 145 votes out of nearly 85,000 between the two of them, and only nine precincts have yet to report.

Poll: McCain Ahead In Florida
A new poll of Florida from Strategic Vision (R) gives John McCain a 49%-42% lead in this big swing state. Recent polls have all given McCain the edge here, though his lead in this poll is a bit bigger than in the others.

Poll: Freshman Dem Faces Tight Race In Deep-Red District
A new SurveyUSA poll shows freshman Dem Congressman Chris Carney, who won his rural Pennsylvania district in 2006 thanks to the incumbent's scandals, is in a very tight race against his Republican opponent. Carney has 49% against GOP nominee Chris Hackett's 45%, within the ±4% margin of error.

Remember Tom Marino? He's the U.S. Attorney from Pennsylvania who was on the firing short list and was viewed by national Republicans as perhaps the most promising challenger to Dem Rep. Chris Carney of Pennsylvania.

Well, Carney can rest easy -- for now, anyway. Marino has told national Republicans that he's taking a pass on the race.

Thomas Marino, the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania who appeared on a short list of U.S. attorneys to be fired last November, is considering a run for Congress, he confirmed in an interview with us yesterday.

Marino is eyeing the state's 10th District seat, currently held by Dem Chris Carney, who defeated incumbent Don Sherwood last November amid allegations that Sherwood choked his mistress.

In a phone interview, Marino told us that he was "considering" a run for the seat -- but added that it was "one of several options that I have." It's certainly an active consideration: Marino said that he'd met a number of Pennsylvania Republicans, including Republican National Committee staffers, to discuss a possible bid. When asked whether he was being recruited for a run, he only said that there had been people at the federal, state, and local level who have been "encouraging" him to run for the seat.

The NRCC's operatives have privately described Marino as a choice candidate for the district, and the local Pennsylvania press has floated his name, but this is the first time to our knowledge that Marino has publicly acknowledged or discussed that he was actively considering a run. The earliest that Marino would decide whether to seek a bid, he said, would be early next year.

Marino's active consideration of a run is noteworthy partly because U.S. attorneys risk skirting ethics regulations when they move to run for office.

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CQ Politics has changed its rating of the race between scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Sherwood and Dem challenger Chris Carney from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." The shift shows once again how Sherwood's recent extramarital affair with a younger woman -- which Carney has not hesitated to make a campaign issue of -- threatens to sink Sherwood in a district so reliably conservative that Dems didn't field a challenger against him in the last two elections. As one pollster who's surveyed the race tells CQ: "The race in the 10th District appears to be primarily about two issues: Iraq and scandal. Unfortunately for Sherwood, neither issue helps him." CQ's full analysis here.

This morning's New York Sun reports on a mailing that the local Pennsylvania GOP sent out which accuses Dem Chris Carney of helping start the Iraq war -- and now Election Central has obtained a copy for your viewing pleasure. The basis of the mailing is that Carney was a Navy reservist who was called in to help produce an analysis of links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. Over at Tapped, Spencer Ackerman notes an obvious problem with this GOP attack: "The GOP generally believes this was, you know, a good thing. If they have a problem with Carney, they have a huge problem with the war, and a huge problem with Bush -- which for the GOP is well, a huge problem."

View the full mailing after the jump.

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Carol Sherwood, the wife of imperiled GOP Rep. Don Sherwood, has sent a letter to constituents this weekend that all but accuses Dem Chris Carney of enjoying inflicting pain on the Sherwood family. "Perhaps Carney gets some pleasure out of hurting our family, or maybe that's what he thinks will make him a winner," the letter reads (emphasis added). The letter appears to be a last-ditch effort to get Carney to stop making a campaign issue out of allegations that Sherwood had a five-year-affair with a younger woman and abused his mistress. Sherwood spokesman Jake O'Donnell told the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader that the letter didn't reflect "campaign strategy." But it was paid for by the Sherwood campaign and sent mainly to registered Republicans in his District.

Maybe it does have something to do with Foley after all. As TPMmuckraker reported earlier today, the GOP cited "scheduling conflicts" to explain why Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL.) and NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY.) canceled fundraising appearances with GOP Rep. Don Sherwood. But Jake O'Donnell, a spokesman for the Sherwood campaign, admitted that the Foley scandal played a role in the cancelations, telling the AP that pressure from Sherwood's Dem opponent Chris Carney was also a factor. Carney had issued a statement yesterday chastizing Sherwood for not canceling the appearance with Reynolds.

CQ Politics has just changed the rating for the House race between GOPer Don Sherwood and Dem Chris Carney from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite":

At the outset of the 2006 midterm campaign cycle, it would have been difficult to identify a more politically “safe” member than Pennsylvania Rep. Don Sherwood...Now it is difficult to find many House members who are more politically vulnerable...

Recent polling data indicate that a sizable portion of the district’s usually ample Republican electorate is shunning Sherwood — and that Carney may be emerging as the candidate to beat. An independent survey released Oct. 3...found that just 60 percent of self-identified Republicans are backing Sherwood, compared to 26 percent who are supporting Carney, who also has a big lead among self-identified independent voters...

The race could hinge on whether Sherwood, in the final four weeks of the campaign, can prevail upon Republicans who are disgusted by his affair to stick with him on policy grounds. Carney, meanwhile, will need to parry attacks from Republicans that he is too liberal for the district.

CQ's full analysis is here. Carney's most recent ad highlighting Sherwood's affair and "family values" problem (can anyone say Foleygate?) is here.

Dem candidate Chris Carney has just launched another hard-hitting ad that hammers incumbent Republican Don Sherwood over allegations that he had an extramarital affair and physically abused his mistress. Key quote: "Don Sherwood campaigned on family values," one constituent says. "He has no family values." View the ad here.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Don Sherwood is definitely hurting from allegations that he not only had an extramarital affair, but physically abused his mistress. The Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader reports on a new poll by Lycoming College showing Dem challenger Chris Carney beating Sherwood 47%-38%. Sherwood was previously a well-entrenched incumbent, but his personal scandals could well cost the Republicans his seat.

Dem candidate Chris Carney has just released what is certainly one of the most hard-hitting ads of this cycle—it directly slams incumbent Don Sherwood over accusations that he not only had an extramarital affair, but also physically abused his mistress. It features a self-identified Republican voter named Joseph Lech holding up a photo of his daughter and saying: "I love my daughter tremendously. How can I tell her I support Don Sherwood and feel good about myself?" Sherwood has admitted to the affair, but hasn't confessed to violence. The once-safe incumbent only got 56% of the vote in his primary and is now a top Dem target. Click here to view the ad.

As we reported below, Dem candidate Chris Carney's campaign slammed GOP Rep. Don Sherwood today in an interview with Election Central for sending out an invite for a fundraiser set to take place on 9/11. Now a rep for Sherwood has gotten back to us -- he acknowledged the event had been planned and emailed a statement saying that that the event is now off. "The fundraiser scheduled for next Monday was postponed," Sherwood adviser Jake O'Donnell emailed Election Central. "The Congressman has an aggressive fundraiser who okayed it originally. The event will be rescheduled for a future date."

We thought fundraising on 9/11 was a no-no -- particularly in the viw of Republicans, who supposedly are so much more serious than Dems in grasping the true significance of the attacks. But now the campaign of Chris Carney -- the Dem challenger to GOP Rep. Don Sherwood -- has just sent us a copy of an invitation which appears to show that Sherwood is indeed throwing a political fundraiser on 9/11. And Carney campaign manager Andrew Eldredge-Martin hammered Sherwood in an interview with Election Central. View the invite here.

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OK, so it wasn't exactly cops hosing down civil rights protesters circa 1963. But still, some people protesting outside a fundraiser in a hotel for GOP Rep. Don Sherwood got hosed down by the hotel's manager. Sort of, anyway:

The small crowd gathered on the sidewalk in front of the hotel at 136 Market St. about 15 minutes before his arrival and were greeted by an angry general manager, Dale Walize...

Mr. Walize came out with a garden hose and a female employee at his side.

"Two can play at this game," he muttered, as he hooked up the hose and began watering the hanging pots of flowers suspended on light poles along the street in front of the hotel.

Mr. Cooper and several other people seemed to enjoy the cool water as they stood motionless under the hose.

It's supposed to go up to 100 degrees in Election Central's New York neighborhood, so that sounds pretty good to us.