Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) has officially announced his campaign for Senate this morning, running for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich.
Portman brings a few strengths to the race. For one, his campaign committee still has $1.5 million, which can be rolled over into the Senate race. And he remains popular in the Cincinnati area from his 12 years in the House, which could help him in a Republican primary if any of the other other GOPers that have been mentioned -- including former Rep. John Kasich and former Sen. Mike DeWine -- decide to get in.
On the other hand, Portman has some clear vulnerabilities because of his work in the Bush Administration. Portman left Congress in 2005 to be U.S. Trade Representative, and later became the White House Budget Director. In a state where the economy is always the biggest issue, and free trade is very unpopular, expect the Dems to hammer him on this stuff if he becomes the nominee.
Rob Portman, the former Ohio Congressman who is widely viewed as a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the newly-open Senate seat, just held a press conference to announce...that he might be making an announcement tomorrow.
To be specific, Portman said he's "leaning toward deciding to run," but also that he needs more time to speak with people around Ohio and make a decision. The decision itself could come as soon as tomorrow.
With GOP Sen. George Voinovich retiring, this is going to be a top Democratic target in 2010. Should Portman actually run, which still seems to be the most likely scenario, he should be viewed as a formidable candidate for the Republicans in this perennial swing state.
With Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) now having announced that he's retiring from his Senate seat in this big swing state, both parties have some decent rosters of potential candidates for the race in 2010.
An Ohio Dem source walked us through the list of people who are contemplating the race on that side:
• Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who was the party's nominee for governor in 1998 and also served as state Attorney General in the early 1990s.
• Rep. Tim Ryan, who has represented Youngstown since 2002.
• Rep. Zack Space, who was elected to deep-red House seat in 2006.
• Rep. Betty Sutton, who was elected in 2006 to the Akron-based district formerly represented by Sen. Sherrod Brown.
• Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who has represented Toledo since 1982.
• Even Rep. Dennis Kucinich has been spreading his name around. "Look, he always runs for president," the source pointed out.
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has just made it official: He is retiring from the Senate, rather than run for a third term in 2010, setting up a potential top-tier race in 2010.
Voinovich easily won re-election back in 2004, but recent polling had showed him with lackluster approval ratings. That said, having him run as an incumbent would still almost certainly have been better for Republicans than having to deal with an open seat in a state that just voted for Barack Obama.
Both parties have deep benches in this state. Former Congressman and ex-White House Budget Director Rob Portman would start out as the immediate favorite for the Republican nomination if he wants it, while potential Dem candidates include Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan. Whoever the candidates turn out to be, expect this race to attract a lot of money and manpower.
Obama Reworking TARP To Reduce Foreclosures -- And Win Over Congress The Wall St. Journalreports that the Obama transition team is working some key new conditions into the Wall St. bailout, in order to win Congressional authorization for the remaining $350 billion. The bailout would now place new restrictions on recipients, and funds would also be used for additional purposes such as preventing foreclosures.
Obama Meeting With Calderon Today
Barack Obama is meeting in Washington today with Mexican President Felipe Calderon, a customary practice for presidents-elect before their inauguration. A big topic of discussion will reportedly be the Mexico drug war.
Bush Holding Final Press Conference
President Bush is holding a 9:15 a.m. press conference today, which is believed to be his final presser before leaving office.
Voinovich Expected To Announce Retirement
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is expected to announce today that he won't be running for a third term in 2010. The new development sets up this big swing state for what should be a very heated open-seat race.
Today: Burris' Lawyers In Washington
Roland Burris' attorneys will be in Washington today to press the Senate leadership on the legality of Burris' appointment to the Illinois Senate seat. This comes after Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White issued a certified copy of Burris' certificate of appointment -- though he did not sign the appointment itself -- and after the state Supreme Court declared that the appointment was legal under Illinois law regardless of White's signature.
The Forecast For Inauguration Day: Cold, But Dry
The weather forecast for January 20, Inauguration Day, currently predicts temperatures in the high 30s in Washington, with sunny skies and no precipitation. The New York Timespoints out that this is comparable to the sunny and cold weather for Bill Clinton's two inaugurals, and better than the foggy or icy weather that George W. Bush had for his two events.
WaPo: The Audacity Of Terry The Washington Postreports that Terry McAuliffe's candidacy for governor of Virginia seems to be going against just about every fundamental assumption of state politics: "that successful candidates must have deep roots in Virginia, that they must spend years cultivating support in local and state party organizations and that, if they are Democrats, they must stay connected with conservative-minded Virginians by keeping their distance from the national party."
Obama: My Plan Will Save Or Create 3-4 Million Jobs
In his latest Presidential YouTube Address, Barack Obama announced that he is releasing a report analyzing the impact of his proposed stimulus package, saying the package would save or create three to four million jobs:
"The jobs we create will be in businesses large and small across a wide range of industries," Obama says. "And they'll be the kind of jobs that don't just put people to work in the short term, but position our economy to lead the world in the long-term."
NYT: Economists Worried The Stimulus Isn't Big Enough The New York Timesreports that some economists are worried the proposed stimulus package still isn't big enough, with Obama's hands tied by the political need to propose tax cuts to win Republican support, and also having to deal with an already-massive deficit. "We have very few good examples to guide us," said William G. Gale, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "I don't know of any convincing evidence that what has been proposed is going to be enough."
Illinois Secretary of State Signs Burris Appointment -- Sort Of
Roland Burris' legal team has tried a new legal maneuver to secure Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White's signature on his Senate appointment: They have obtained a certified copy of the appointment paper, signed by White. Bear in mind that this is not necessarily the same as if White had signed the appointment form itself -- his signature here attests that the new paper is a true and accurate copy of the original, valid appointment. The Senate's lawyers will make their own decision as to whether it's binding.
Burris Legal Team: We're Going Back To Washington, Could Sue The Chicago Tribunereports that Roland Burris' legal team is citing yesterday's state Supreme Court decision, holding that he doesn't even need White's signature in order for the appointment to be valid under Illinois law, as proof that the Senate must seat Burris. They are now promising to return to Washington on Monday, and will file a lawsuit in federal court if Burris isn't seated.
Al Franken To Attend Obama's Inauguration
Al Franken will be heading to Washington in a week and a half -- though for now it will only be to attend Barack Obama's inauguration, not to be sworn in as a Senator. A spokesperson for Norm Coleman said he will not be attending the event.
Coleman: Democrats Blocking Constituent Services
Norm Coleman is complaining that the Senate's decision to close his offices after his term expired -- leaving the seat vacant while Coleman challenges the election results in court -- is hurting Minnesotans who have been relying on him for constituent services. "There are people -- this is real-life stuff -- who come to us for help," Coleman. "They're being hurt by Harry Reid." Meanwhile, Reid's office denies that they promised Coleman they would let his staffers keep working, though they are working to come to an acceptable solution.
GOP Sen. Voinovich Could Retire In 2010
The office of Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has acknowledged rumors that he could retire in 2010, saying in a statement: "If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio -- people he considers his second family." A Voinovich retirement would immediately set up a close and hotly-contested race in a big swing state.
Scalpers Turning Big Profits On Obama Inaugural Tickets The Hillreports that ticket scalpers are already making a bundle off of the tickets to Barack Obama's inaugural parade, which sold out in minutes on Friday afternoon. The retail price of the tickets was $25, but they are now going for prices of more than $400.
A new set of SurveyUSA polls is a mixed bag for both Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's arguments about electability. Obama does better than Hillary against John McCain in some states — Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon — while Hillary does better in Massachusetts and, perhaps most importantly, Ohio. And they run about the same in Alabama, California and Missouri.
Either one of them could beat John McCain in Ohio, a state that could potentially decide the presidency, but Hillary does quite a bit better. She tops mcCain 52%-42%, while Obama wins by a narrower 47%-44%.
But there's good news for both of them and their supporters: Before he actually clinched the Republican nomination, McCain was much stronger against both Democrats in practically all these states. But with McCain now leading the unpopular GOP, and with the Dems getting more attention as their primary continues, they have risen and he has fallen.
Only two areas were keeping their polling places open late to compensate for delays and problems earlier in the day, we reported earlier.
Now a third -- Ohio's Cuyahoga County -- will extend voting hours for its residents, because of "technical glitches an delays in opening," the Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting. Voters there will have until 9 p.m. local time to cast their ballot.
A glance at PM election stories shows voters are coming out in record numbers, at least in states with tight races:
Virginia: "A state elections official says reports from around Virginia early Tuesday indicated an extraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election- with perhaps 65 percent of registered voters expected to cast ballots. That would double the midterm turnout in 2002." (AP)
Missouri: "Election officials raced across St. Louis to deliver additional voting machines as exceptionally high turnout at many polling places led to long lines and short tempers. . . . 'We've never had this kind of turnout -- ever,' St. Louis Board of Election Supervisors Matt Potter said[.]" (WSJ)
Montana: “'The line for late registration is a good hour wait,' Missoula County Clerk and Recorder Vickie Zeier said at 1:15 p.m. Tuesday. 'There are so many people, it’s unbelievable.' . . . Elsewhere in Missoula County, polling places were reporting heavy traffic." (Missoulian)
Tennessee : "Even in rainy Tennessee, officials are noting a nearly 50 percent jump in turnout over the 2002 midterms." (AP)
From the Election Protection coalition's morning update email:
EP volunteers and the EP hotline received widespread [reports] of voting machine problems leading to delays, as well as problems with confusion implementing the state’s photo ID requirement. Additionally, one polling place opened late because of an overnight break in. A local TV station aired footage of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s battle with an optical scan voting machine, which repeatedly rejected her ballot.
Dem Senate candidate Sherrod Brown's campaign is trying a new experiment that's worth a look: It's recording real-time endorsements of Brown -- from ordinary citizens -- and posting them on its web site for others to listen to. The recordings are surprisingly moving -- they capture real emotion on the part of citizens, something all too lacking from modern politics. You can hear a school teacher whose terminally ill son wouldn’t have received medical help in time without Brown’s help, or a Marine vet from Brown’s district expressing his gratitude for Brown’s support of the military. Give some of it a listen. It's good stuff.
Dem Sherrod Brown's lead is growing. The new New York Times poll just out tonight has Brown leading GOP Senator Mike DeWine by 14 points, 48%-34%. More in the morning.
CQ Politics has just downgraded the Ohio Senate race between GOP incumbent Mike DeWine and Dem challenger Sherrod Brown, moving it from "No clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":
This is a breakthrough for Brown, who is running on a liberal-leaning but populist economic platform and his strong opposition to President Bush’s policies on the war in Iraq...
It is a mark of how terrible the political environment is for Ohio Republicans that they are unable to exploit Brown’s voting record. The Republicans have focused on what they argue are major deficiencies in Brown’s record on national security issues and taxes. But Brown has focused on the state’s hemorrhaging of manufacturing jobs and his opposition to trade pacts that he says have contributed to economic dislocations.
Including DeWine, CQ has now rated three GOP incumbent Senators as underdogs. The other two are Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Okay, so I just spoke with a Democratic strategist who is in regular contact with the local Ohio networks, and he's shed some more light on the question of how much the national GOP will -- or won't -- spend to save sinking GOP Senator Mike DeWine. Ever since the New York Times reported that the national party was divesting in the race after concluding that Dem Sherrod Brown is on track to victory, both the NRSC and the RNC have denied that they were pulling out. But our source gave us some new info which suggests the GOP may be preparing to scale back in Ohio big time. He tells us the NRSC has no more air time reserved, and that the RNC has only paid for a fraction of its planned ad expenditure, leaving room to shift most RNC resources alloted to ads in Ohio to other races. More after the jump.
Dem Sherrod Brown appears to be pulling away from GOP Senator Mike DeWine. A new Quinnipiac poll released today shows Brown leading DeWine by 12 points, 53%-41%. The new poll -- whose spread dwarfs that of most recent polls -- comes amid a big disupte over whether national GOP strategists have decided to pull resources out of the race. Yesterday's Times reported that the RNC was pulling out funds, while analyst Stuart Rothenberg countered that the RNC was sinking more than $1 million into the race. Yesterday Election Central spoke to a Brown adviser who was skeptical that the RNC was really yanking funds. More on this later.
Today's Times reports that the NRSC has concluded that GOP Senator Mike DeWine may be beyond saving, so it's shifting funds out of that race and focussing on races in Missouri, Tennessee, where polls show Dems with modest leads, and probably Virginia, which is now a dead heat. The Times also says this:
In one sign of the shifting political environment, as of this weekend, national Republicans were running advertisements in 29 districts; of those, 26 are held by Republicans and 3 by Democrats, though Republicans plan to begin running advertisements this week against an Illinois Democrat, Representative Melissa Bean. National Democrats are on the air in 30 districts, and defending Democrats in just 3 races.
So it looks as if Dem Sherrod Brown may be pulling away from GOP Senator Mike DeWine. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Brown now leading DeWine by 14 points, 54%-40%. A key footnote: Since the last SurveyUSA poll in late September, Brown has gone up two points, while DeWine has dropped two points. DeWine is sinking despite the fact that in an unusual move, the Republican National Committee has chosen Ohio as one of three Senate races (usually the province mainly of the NRSC) it's investing heavily in as part of a last-ditch effort to bail out struggling GOPers. The other two states are Tennessee and Missouri. A preview: Some equally eye-opening numbers are coming on the Missouri race later today.
So the Associated Press has picked up our story about the soldier who appeared in an ad for GOP Senator Mike DeWine. And AP moved the ball a bit by confirming that the soldier is real. As Election Central first reported yesterday, the Army is reviewing the ad to determine whether the appearance of someone in uniform violated Defense Department regs barring uniformed military personnel from appearing in partisan contexts. The AP's pickup says: "DeWine spokesman Brian Seitchik declined to give information about the soldier, except that he is a real soldier, not an actor. He said the appearance did not violate military regulations." That's for the Army to determine in their review, however. Stay tuned.
GOP Senator Mike DeWine's campaign is refusing to say whether a soldier appearing in one of the campaign's political ads is an actor or a real member of the military. The ad -- which ran roughly in the last week of September and the first week of October and is right here -- pictures family members of soldiers praising DeWine. For about three seconds, what appears to be an actual soldier is visible in uniform.
But a Department of Defense spokesperson has now told Election Central that "all military personnel...are prohibited from wearing military uniforms at political campaign or election events." The spokesman added that he'd "forwarded this matter over to the Army for review."
Check out our screen grab:
Election Central has left repeated messages with the DeWine campaign asking whether the man in the ad is real or an actor. None has been returned. More after the jump.
Amid signs that worry is mounting in national GOP circles about the fate of GOP Senator Mike DeWine, the National Republican Senatorial Committee yesterday dumped another $1,135,240.00 into negative ads targeting Dem challenger Sherrod Brown, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. Meanwhile, the Toledo Blade reports today that the Brown campaign says it raised almost $3 million from July through Sept. 30.
Sherrod Brown's campaign began running a new ad today that goes right at incumbent GOP Senator Mike DeWine, first for misrepresentations of Brown's voting record on military spending, then more broadly:
What kind of man would use our troops to smear his opponent?
DeWine.
A man who doctored photos of 911 for political gain, missed critical meetings on the intelligence committee, misled us on weapons of mass destruction, then tried to cover-up intelligence failures.
Recent polling has the race close, with Brown's previously 10 point lead shrinking fast. Brown is likely going on offense in anticipation of nearly $1.2 million of negative advertising coming at him in the next five weeks. Watch the ad below.
Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) has officially announced his campaign for Senate this morning, running for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich.
Rob Portman, the former Ohio Congressman who is widely viewed as a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the newly-open Senate seat, just held a press conference to announce...that he might be making an announcement tomorrow.
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has just 
