As we head into Election Day tomorrow, a look at polls reveals a fact that hasn't truly sunk in: Tomorrow is not truly Election Day, but more like the end of the Election Weeks, with the Obama campaign having built up substantial leads in early-vote states, which John McCain has to overcome if he wants to pull off a win.

Take a look at these examples:

• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.

• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% -- but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.

• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster's analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama's early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.

It's worth remembering that a whole lot of those Obama campaign rallies over the last few weeks were officially billed as being "Early Vote For Change" rallies, in which Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or some other surrogate would take a moment out from the standard talk about change and hope in order to deliver a civics lesson about how to vote early, and why the audience members should do it right after the rally.

In short, the Obama campaign didn't wait for Election Day to execute their get-out-the-vote strategy. They've been very actively pursuing it this whole time, bringing voters out early so they wouldn't have to worry about it as much on Election Day. And if he narrowly wins any of these red states tomorrow, that strategy may end up having been the decisive factor.

The Republican Jewish Coalition -- which recently hit Pennsylvania mailboxes with a mailer implying a vote for Obama could produce a second Holocaust -- is now hitting Ohio with a wave of incendiary new mailers that directly target his association with Reverend Wright.

"Barack Obama's friends and advisors: Pro-Palestinian, Anti-Israel, even hostile to America," reads the mailer, adding that his associates harbor "anti-Israel views" that are "dangerous, naive and reckless."

A second mailer attacks Obama on Israel with a picture of the Wailing Wall, a holy site whose use in a political attack could prove offensive to many Jews.

Ironically, both mailers, which are presumably targeted to Jewish voters, landed in the Columbus-area mailbox of Cliff Schecter, the author of the anti-McCain book "The Real McCain." Schecter sent them in to us.

Here's the Wright mailer, with the Reverend's photo squarely in the center, above the words "hostile to America" (click on the images to enlarge):

And here's the Wailing Wall mailer, which hits Obama for supposedly backtracking on his support for an undivided Jerusalem, a claim strongly disputed by the Obama camp:

Schecter also says he received a copy of the Pennsylvania missive on the Holocaust, meaning that the Republican Jewish Coalition's campaign is active in multiple states.

A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.

PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.

Barack Obama In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia; Michelle In Nevada And Colorado
Barack Obama has a morning rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, and will then finish out the campaign with a 9 p.m. ET rally in Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will hold a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Littleton, Colorado.

Biden In Missouri, Ohio -- And Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Lee's Summit, Missouri, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Copley, Ohio, and finally a 10 p.m. ET rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

McCain In Six States Today
John McCain has a very busy schedule for the final day of the campaign: An 8:55 a.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, an 11:45 a.m. rally in Blountville, Tennessee; a 1:50 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Indianapolis; an 8 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico; and a 10:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada. The inclusion of Tennessee seems rather curious -- this one is widely viewed as a safe state, and he could probably spend his time more usefully in other states.

Palin Doing Six Events In Five States
Sarah Palin also has a very big day ahead of her: A 9:15 a.m. ET rally in Lakewood, Ohio; a 1 p.m. ET rally in Jefferson City, Missouri; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Dubuque, Iowa; a 7:45 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs; an 11:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada; and a 1:30 a.m. ET rally in Elko, Nevada.

Roughly 27 Million Votes Already Cast
The Associated Press reports that over 27 million ballots were already cast up through Saturday night, the most recent time for which the data is available. Polling data suggests that Barack Obama has carried the early vote handily this year, meaning that John McCain will need to win the votes cast on Election Day by a strong margin.

McCain: Tuesday We "Take America In A New Direction"
John McCain declared at a midnight rally in Miami, "There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction." The heckling opportunities on this one are just too obvious.

A few moments ago in Ohio, Barack Obama tweaked his ongoing mockery of Dick Cheney's McCain endorsement a bit.

"Yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location," Obama said. "He said that he is, and I quote, 'Delighted to support John McCain.' He's delighted. You've never seen Dick Cheney delighted before. But he is. That's kind of hard to picture."

"So I would like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement," Obama continued, "because he really earned it. He worked hard for it."

McCain has been such a loyal supporter of the Bush-Cheney agenda that the opportunity to endorse him has made even Cheney smile. Funny.

One more day.

Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

Poll: Tight Race In Virginia
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a lead of 47% to John McCain's 44%, with a ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead a week ago. The poll also shows that white voters are disproportionately undecided, which if true could mean a late break in John McCain's direction -- the question is whether this pattern in Virginia politics repeats again, and whether it's enough of a break to overcome Obama's lead.

Bellwether Poll: Obama Ahead By Six In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio, conducted by mail, has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by a 52%-46% margin, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead a month ago. Historically, the leader in the Dispatch's final Ohio poll has consistently carried the state.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 1 p.m. ET rally in Columbus with Michelle Obama, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Cleveland with Michelle and Bruce Springsteen, and a solo rally at 9 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Joe Biden is swinging through Florida, with a 10:45 a.m. ET rally in Tallahassee, a 4 p.m. ET rally in Gainesville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Daytona Beach.

McCain In Pennsylvania, New Hampshire And Florida; Palin In Ohio
John McCain is making a final attempt to win over two Kerry states today, with an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania, a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and a 6:15 p.m. ET town hall-style event in Peterborough, New Hampshire, followed by a rally after midnight in Miami, Florida, his one red state for the day. Sarah Palin is touring through the Bush state of Ohio today, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Canton, a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Marietta, a 5 p.m. ET rally in Columbus, and an 8 p.m. ET rally in Batavia.

Hillary Campaigning For Obama In Virginia
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally at 4:30 p.m. ET in Fairfax, Virginia, on behalf of Barack Obama. Earlier in the day she will also be campaigning in Kentucky for Bruce Lunsford, the Dem candidate against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

Poll: Obama Way Up In New Mexico Early Vote
A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico, which narrowly voted for George W. Bush in 2004, shows Barack Obama with a 58%-39% lead among those who have already voted, with an estimated 60% of the total ballots already cast. If these estimates are all accurate, John McCain would need to win the remaining likely voters by nearly two to one in order to carry the state -- but he's only ahead 54%-41% with this subset, for an overall top-line result of Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error.

Gibbs: We Screen Obama's Calls
Obama adviser and surrogate Robert Gibbs had this to say about Sarah Palin's phone call with a Canadian prank-call comedian saying he was the President of France: "I'm glad we check out our calls before we hand the phone to Barack Obama."

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.

Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.

McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:

"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"

The newest polls in the big three swing states paint a very clear picture: Obama seems to be pulling away in Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Florida, while his big lead in Pennsylvania is holding steady.

Here are all the latest polls from just the last few days, beginning with some new Quinnipiac polling out this morning:

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%

Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

McCain is trying to make a last stand in Pennsylvania, but there's really no evidence that it is in any way working at all. And without Pennsylvania, if he loses either Ohio or Florida, both of them Bush states, then the game is basically over.

New McCain Ad: He's For "Workin' Joes"
The new McCain ad, set to air in targeted states, contrasts the two candidates and attacks Obama on the McCain campaign's apparent closing issue of wealth redistribution:

"For higher taxes," the announcer says of Obama, then declaring that McCain is "for workin' Joes." That's right -- the McCain campaign is dropping the G's in its slogans, including in the on-screen text.

The GOP's Bizarre Spending
The Huffington Post does a comprehensive review of the RNC and McCain campaign's finance reports and finds a bunch of expenditures every bit as odd as the spending on Sarah Palin's wardrobe. The GOP laid out for everything from art restoration to elephant-shaped shrubbery to lunches for Karl Rove.

Obama In Pennsylvania and Virginia; Biden In Florida; Michelle In Colorado
Barack Obama is holding a morning rally in Chester, Pennsylvania, a 5:15 p.m. ET rally in Harrisonburg, Virginia, and a 9:30 p.m. ET rally in Norfolk, Virginia. Joe Biden is campaigning in Florida, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Ocala and a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in Melbourne. Michelle Obama is holding a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

GOP Ticket Focused On Pennsylvania Today; McCain Also In North Carolina
John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending a lot of time today in Pennsylvania, the state that has become the linchpin of their new strategy -- but where the polls still show them far behind. The two of them have a joint rally at 10 a.m. ET in Hershey, then a joint rally at 1:15 p.m. ET in Quakertown, followed by Palin solo rallies at 5:15 p.m. ET in Shippensburg and at 9 p.m. ET in University Park. John McCain also has a solo rally at 5:30 p.m. ET in Fayetteville, North Carolina.

Poll: Obama Ahead in Ohio, Way Up On Early Votes
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.9% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that 22% of the likely electorate has already voted, and they've gone for Obama by a 56%-39% margin, with the two candidates tied 47%-47% among the remaining 78%.

Obama Ad: In A Crisis, "He's Got Steel In His Spine"
The Obama campaign has this new ad running under the radar, firing back on the controversy surrounding Joe Biden's remarks that the next president will be tested in a crisis, and accusing the McCain campaign of selectively editing the tape:

"But here's what Biden actually said about Barack Obama," the announcer said, followed by audio of Biden: "They're gonna find out this guy's got steel in his spine."

New NRA Ad Stars Chuck Norris
This new NRA ad, targeted at ten battleground states, features the one and only Chuck Norris warning voters that certain politicians just say they're for gun rights, but they're really just protecting criminals:

"If some thug breaks into my home, I could use my roundhouse kick," the World's Greatest Human says. "But I'd prefer he look down the barrel of my gun."

The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:

• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.

• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.

These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.

All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.

It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

RNC Ad Hits Obama's Inexperience, Warns That Things Could Get Worse
The new RNC ad, which will run in targeted states, continues an odd theme we've noticed in their advertising. The announcer admits things are bad, but warns that it could get even worse under Barack Obama:

"Some now say this storm cannot get worse -- our nation is so off course that Barack Obama's quick rise to power and inexperience should not matter," the announcer says. "But what if the storm does get worse, with someone who's untested at the helm?"

Obama Out West; Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama is back on the campaign trail today, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 9 p.m. ET rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Joe Biden is campaigning in Virginia, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Suffolk.

McCain In New Mexico; Palin In Iowa And Indiana
John McCain is campaigning today in New Mexico, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Albuquerque and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mesilla. Sarah Palin has a 12 p.m. ET rally in Sioux City, Iowa, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Des Moines, Iowa, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Lieberman: I've Been Respectful To Obama!
In a sign that he's looking to patch things up with the Dems after this election is over, Joe Lieberman told a group of Connecticut reporters that he's always been respectful of Barack Obama: "When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.'" This seems rather odd in light of the documented occasions where Lieberman has done precisely the opposite, like when he said Obama doesn't put his country first.

Lieberman: "Thank God" Palin Won't Have To Be President On Day One
During the same conference call with Connecticut reporters, Lieberman also offered this strong defense of Sarah Palin: "Thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well."

NYT: Florida Emblematic Of McCain's Troubles
The New York Times reports this morning on the problems that John McCain has had in Florida, a state that he once took for granted but where he has now fallen behind Barack Obama in most polls. "Mr. McCain is in this spot today in part because of the conclusion by his campaign this summer that Florida, if competitive, was not as tough as it once was, and that there were more pressing states," the Times says. Oops.

Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Ohio
The new University of Cincinnati poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-46% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.3% margin of error. Their previous poll from two weeks ago gave McCain a 48%-46% lead.

A new set of polls from Strategic Vision (R) has some good news for John McCain, with him taking back leads in Florida and Ohio, and holding on to his lead Georgia. But all his work in Pennsylvania has only managed to make a small dent in Obama's lead:

• Florida: McCain 48%, Obama 46%, within the ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 52%-44% lead.

• Georgia: McCain 51%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain was up 50%-43%.

• Ohio: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 48%-46% edge.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. This is better for McCain than the 54%-40% Obama lead from two weeks ago, but he still hasn't managed t drag Obama to below 50%.

The most recent polls in Florida and Ohio have been a mixed bag, though on balance they've favored Obama. McCain has a small lead in most new Georgia polls, though an Insideradvantage poll from this morning put Obama up by one point. And every poll out there has been giving Obama a significant lead in Pennsylvania.

Still more stunning numbers, from today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy...

Senator Obama...is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.

"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.

McCain is now preferred on foreign policy by only two to six points -- way too close for comfort on his signature issue. Now, it's true that the foreign policy numbers shift depending on how the question is asked. For instance, if you phrase the question around who is better prepared to handle terrorism or international crises, you might get different numbers.

Still, the fact that McCain's foreign policy advantage is nearly non-existent in the three biggest battlegrounds -- despite McCain's attacks on Obama as basically unable or perhaps unwilling to prevent terrorists from blowing you up -- is pretty startling, and may help explain why he's doing so well with blue-collar whites in those states, too.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the three largest swing states. Obama is ahead 49%-44% in Florida, 52%-38% in Ohio, and 53%-40% in Pennsylvania. The Ohio result seems like an outlier compared to other recent polls showing a tight race, but the others are not unreasonable.

Obama In Indiana, Then Off To Hawaii; Biden In North Carolina
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 11 a.m. ET this morning in Indianapolis, before leaving the campaign trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Joe Biden is campaigning in North Carolina, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Charlotte, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Winston-Salem, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh.

McCain In Florida; Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is kicking off his officially-themed "Joe The Plumber" rallies, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Osmond Beach, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding a 1 p.m. ET rally in Troy, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Beaver, Pennsylvania.

Mellencamp In New Radio Ad: Obama Is The One For Small-Town Voters
The Obama campaign has a radio ad in Indiana featuring the state's favorite son John Mellencamp, whose famous "I was born in a small town" lyrics puts him in a good position to subtly rebut any objections to Obama's own "small town" gaffe from April:

Click To Play

"But now I'm seeing small towns across America dying," Mellencamp says. "Folks losing their jobs and their homes. Eight years of George Bush have really hurt. And John McCain is just more of the same."

Another Poll Shows Narrow Obama Lead In North Carolina
A new poll from North Carolina-based Marshall Marketing gives Barack Obama a 48%-46% in this newly-minted swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In their previous poll from two weeks ago, McCain had a 48%-46% edge.

Obama At Rally: "This Looks Like The Real Virginia To Me"
At a rally yesterday in Leesburg, Virginia, Barack Obama rebutted the "Real Virginia" comments of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer. "I know some folks may not think so, but this looks like the real Virginia to me," Obama said. "This looks like authentic Virginia and y'all look like a bunch of Virginians."

Schwarzenegger: Palin Will Be Ready By Inauguration Day
In an interview aired yesterday evening on CNN, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger did his best to defend Sarah Palin's qualifications. When asked whether Palin is ready and qualified, the Terminator answered: "By the time that she is sworn in I think she will be ready."

A new round of CNN polls in five red states has some very good news for Barack Obama: He's leading in four out of the five, with a huge lead in Virginia.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was up 51%-47%.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, it was a 49%-49% tie.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama was ahead 50%-47%.

• Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. This is basically unchanged from Obama's 53%-43% lead a week ago.

• West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain was only up 50%-46%, so this is the one sliver of good news for him in here.

All five of these states voted twice for George W. Bush, and the four where Obama is ahead add up to 53 electoral votes. John McCain pretty much needs to hold on to all 53 of them, or else it will be exceedingly difficult for him to pull off a victory.

A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.

• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.

• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.

• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.

DNC Raises Nearly $50 Million In September
The DNC announced this morning that they raised $49.9 million in September, and had $27.4 million cash on hand at the end of the month. Together with the Obama campaign's haul of more than $150 million, the combined Democratic fundraising total for September was an astonishing $200 million, far ahead of the RNC's $66 million and the McCain campaign's $85 million in one-time federal grant money.

Obama In North Carolina, Biden In Washington State
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 1:30 p.m. ET in Fayetteville, Norah Carolina. Joe Biden is holding a rally at 5 p.m. ET in Tacoma, Washington.

McCain In Ohio, Palin In New Mexico
John McCain is holding a rally at 1 p.m. ET in Westerville, Ohio, and a rally at 4:15 p.m. ET in Toledo, Ohio. Sarah Palin is holding a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico. Cindy McCain is holding a 3 p.m. ET rally in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Powell's Support Of Obama Not A Surprise
During his appearance this morning on Fox News Sunday, John McCain reacted to Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama: "Well, I've always admired and respected General Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise." McCain added that he's glad to have the support of four former Secretaries of State -- Kissinger, Baker, Eagleburger and Haig -- and he continues to respect and admire Powell.

McCain: Obama's Fundraising Could Lead To Scandal
Also during his appearance on Fox News Sunday, McCain responded to Barack Obama's record monthly fundraising haul. "So what's going to happen?" McCain said. "The dam is broken. We're now going to see huge amounts of money coming into political campaigns, and we know history tells us that always leads to scandal." McCain added that we'll eventually have to pass legislation to deal with the problems created by Obama's small-donor fundraising model.

Polls: Obama Up In Wisconsin, McCain Ahead In West Virginia, Tight Race In Ohio.
A new round of Mason-Dixon polls gives Barack Obama a big lead of 51%-39% in Wisconsin, and McCain a 47%-41% lead in West Virginia. Meanwhile, McCain has 46%-45% edge in Ohio. All three polls have a ±4% margin of error.

Obama Has Campaigned More Than McCain In "Real Virginia"
CNN took a look at the candidates' travel schedules, and found something interesting in light of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer's comments about "Real Virginia": In the battle for this state's 13 electoral votes, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have made more campaign appearance outside of Northern Virginia than John McCain and Sarah Palin have.

Obama Ad: McCain Will Tax Your Health Benefits And Cut Medicare
The Obama campaign has another TV ad in targeted states, warning voters that their health benefits will be taxed under John McCain's plan and he'll cut Medicare too, in an effort to both court older voters and to neutralize the tax issue by turning it right back on the GOP:

"John McCain: Taxing health benefits, cutting Medicare," the announcer says. "We can't afford John McCain."

Hillary On Fox News: Dems Have To "Take Them On"
Josh Orton of MyDD reports that on a conference call with bloggers late yesterday, Hillary Clinton urged Democrats to go on Fox News, rather than boycott them: "I don't think we benefit from ignoring the reality that they're there," she said. "We have to try to take them on and do so in an effective manner." More from Hilllary here.

Obama In Virginia, Biden In New Mexico And Nevada
Barack Obama is holding a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Roanoke, Virginia. Joe Biden is campaigning out West, with a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Mesilla, New Mexico, and a rally later tonight in Henderson, Nevada.

McCain In Florida, Palin In Ohio And Indiana
John McCain is holding a 1:15 p.m. rally in Miami, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Melbourne, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in West Chester, Ohio, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Noblesville, Indiana.

McCain Gets Grilled On Letterman
John McCain appeared last night on the David Letterman show, hoping to patch things up after he stood Dave up a few weeks ago. Instead, he was asked a series of tough questions about Sarah Palin's qualifications, and whether the logic of his accusations against Barack Obama regarding Bill Ayers could extend to McCain's own associations with G. Gordon Liddy.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Missouri, Tied In Ohio
A new Rasmussen poll in Missouri gives Barack Obama a 52%-46% in this perennial swing state, where he trailed in the polls until just recently, up from a 50%-47% lead in Rasmussen's polling a few days ago. Rasmussen also has Obama and McCain tied 49%-49% in Ohio, not significantly different from a 49%-47% Obama lead a few days ago.

Palin To Appear On Saturday Night Live
Sarah Palin will be appearing tomorrow on Saturday Night Live, just to show that she's a good sport about the way they've lampooned her over the past month and a half. It's not known yet whether Tina Fey will also be on the show -- or for that matter, whether anybody will be able to tell the difference.

A new pair of Marist polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the two big swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and it may well be that Pennsylvania no longer should even be called a swing state.

In Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had a 47%-45% lead.

In Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, well outside the ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead a month ago. This is consistent with other polls that have shown Obama taking a double-digit lead here.

The polls also show that Obama's favorability ratings are much better than McCain's. In Ohio, Obama is at 60% favorable and 37% unfavorable, compared to 54%-44% favorability for McCain. In Pennsylvania, Obama is at 65%-34%, and McCain at 55%-43%.

Sen. Graham: John Lewis Is "Playing The Race Card"
Appearing today on CBS' Face The Nation, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) hit back at Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) for comparing John McCain to George Wallace, and saying that McCain and Sarah Palin were fomenting an atmosphere of violent emotions against Barack Obama. "We're not going to be intimidated by this playing the race card," Graham said, going on to say that the campaign cannot be held responsible "for what one person says at a rally."

NYT: GOPers Unhappy With McCain Campaign
The New York Times reports that many Republicans are unhappy with the McCain campaign's current approach, and the lack of a coherent narrative. "You're starting to feel real frustration because we are running out of time," said Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis. "Our message, the campaign's message, isn't connecting." In particular, there is serious disagreement about how to approach issues like the economy, and whether to go after Obama over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden Campaigning With Bill And Hillary
Barack Obama has no public events today. Joe Biden is holding a big rally today in Scranton, Pennsylvania, featuring Bill and Hillary Clinton, scheduled to begin at 3:15 p.m.

McCain Off The Trail, Palin in West Virginia, Ohio and Virginia.
John McCain does not have any public events scheduled for today. Instead, Sarah Palin is campaigning today in Huntsville, West Virginia, in St. Clairsville, Ohio, and in Norfolk, Virginia.

McCain Camp Backs Away From Minister's Rally Invocation
The McCain campaign was forced yesterday to release a statement backing away from an Iowa minister's invocation at a rally yesterday, in which he asked God to prevent an Obama victory on the grounds that people of other religions were praying for it to happen. The statement from campaign spokesperson Wendy Riemann said that "questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race."

Poll: Obama Well Ahead In Colorado
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a healthy lead in this swing state. The numbers: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, outside of the ±2.7% margin of error

Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In Ohio
A new University of Cincinnati poll gives John McCain a 48%-46% advantage in Ohio, within the ±3.3% margin of error. The previous poll from a month ago gave McCain a 48%-42% lead.

Poll: Obama Takes Small Lead In Nevada
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% in this perennial swing state. The previous poll from two months ago gave McCain a 46%-39% lead.

Obama campaign surrogates are out there in the states today pushing the campaign's attack line over McCain-Palin's unhinged crowds very hard, with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland blasting the McCain team at a rally today, and vouching for Obama as a "strong Christian man" who poses no threat to gun rights.

"Why do I share those two things with you this morning?" Strickland added. "Because the McCain-Palin campaign, and unfortunately some of their followers, would want you to be afraid of Barack Obama," he said. "They want you to believe that he is untested and unknown, and they are doing it my friends for one reason, they want to hold onto the power they have and to the positions that they want."

Meanwhile, the atmosphere at McCain events seems to be getting worse and worse. The Huffington Post points out that a woman in the crowd at a rally today in Wisconsin began yelling "Traitor!" -- and TV footage appears to show John and Cindy McCain looking in her direction and smiling.

Late Update: Here's the video of the woman yelling at the McCain rally: