A new batch of polls from Quinnipiac University lends weight to Hillary Clinton's argument that she's more electable against McCain than Obama -- it finds that she handily beats McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama only wins in one of the three:

Florida
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Sample: 1,411 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%

Sample: 1,127 Ohio voters. Margin of error: ±2.9%.

Pennsylvania
Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38%

Sample: 1,494 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.5%.

On the bright side for Obama, his showings in Florida and Pennsylvania have improved since the last poll from a month ago. However, Hillary is still outperforming him in all three states.

John McCain has a new ad up in select markets in Ohio and Pennsylvania, pitching him as a bipartisan conciliator. "As President, John McCain will take the best ideas from both parties to spur innovation, invest in people and create jobs," the announcer says:

The last line seems to be a subtle knock against Barack Obama, whom McCain has accused of being shallow and lacking any real propsals: "Big ideas for serious problems. John McCain."

This morning's Quinnipiac polls show Hillary Clinton running nine points ahead of Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary, not significantly down from her lead two weeks ago:

Clinton 50% (-3)
Obama 41% (+0)

Meanwhile, Clinton is running stronger than Obama for the general election in Pennsylvania and two other big swing states — due to more solid support from white voters — which the Clinton campaign will be sure to use in arguing that they're more electable:

Florida
Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 42%
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 37%

Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 39%
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 42%

Pennsylvania
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 39%

A new set of polls by SurveyUSA shows that Barack Obama's electability has taken a serious drubbing as a result of his recent setbacks, and he now does much poorer than Hillary Clinton does against John McCain in the three tested states:

Ohio
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%

Missouri
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 46%
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 39%

Kentucky
McCain (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 43%
McCain (R) 64%, Obama (D) 28%

The internals show that in all three cases Obama gets a smaller share of the white vote than Hillary does, without room for his improvements among African-Americans to make up the difference.

(Via MyDD)

Late Update: One thing also worth noting is that these polls were conducted before Obama's speech yesterday on race relations, so we simply don't know yet what impact it might have in turning these numbers around.

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows a close race in the North Carolina primary, a heavily African-American contest where Obama is seen as the favorite. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from two weeks ago:

Obama 44% (-3)
Clinton 43% (+0)

From the internals: Obama leads 72%-19% among black voters, while Hillary is ahead 56%-30% with whites. With Obama having started out as the favorite here, a potential loss would seriously damage his candidacy and boost Hillary's chance at the nomination.

A separate PPP poll also shows Hillary performing stronger than Obama in the general election for Ohio, giving fuel to the Hillary camp's argument that they're more electable in key big states:

Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%

This morning we gave you the latest delegate hard count from NBC, which gave Hillary Clinton a 46-34 delegate edge on the Texas primary, with 46 delegates yet to be allocated. As it turns out, the Texas Secretary of State site has a more up-to-date count based on the totals in the state Senate districts, and Hillary's edge is much closer in their numbers.

With all 126 delegates estimated by the state's site, it's 65 for Hillary to 61 for Obama — a +4 edge for Hillary compared to the ongoing +12 estimate that NBC currently has, assuming the Texas state site's calculations are accurate.

In Rhode Island, Hillary won a 13-8 advantage, while Obama got a 9-6 win in Vermont. NBC currently has Ohio at 73-62 for Hillary, with six delegates left to be assigned. That gives Hillary a net advantage of +17 for the night, without the Texas caucus results factored in. Assuming Obama wins the caucus, this would trim Hillary's lead slightly, potentially leaving her around +10.

Late Update: Using the Ohio Secretary of State's district-by-district numbers, combined with this delegate calculator at BuckeyeStateBlog, Hillary Clinton ends up with 74 delegates to Barack Obama's 65 delegates, with two more delegates up in the air. That would put Hillary at +9 in Ohio, down from NBC's current +11, and +15 overall before the Texas caucus results are known.

We've just obtained a copy of the new ad that the 501c4 issue-advocacy group Campaign to Defend America is running against John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

It says that McCain offers more of the "McSame as Bush," on issues from Iraq to health care, and repeatedly superimposes Bush's head atop McCain's body.

Here's a first look...

We first reported on the ad here at Election Central yesterday.

The Campaign to Defend America -- which will be running ads on issues like Iraq, the economy, energy, and health care, from a bent that appears to be pro-Democratic -- is spending more than $1,000,000 on the buy, the group tells me.

So how many delegates did Hillary and Obama pick up last night, and what sort of gain, if any, did she make on him?

According to MSNBC's preliminary analysis, here's how the delegates broke down in the four states that voted yesterday:

* In Ohio, Hillary got 73 to Obama's 62.

* In Vermont, Obama got nine to Hillary's six.

* In Rhode Island, Hillary got 13 to Obama's eight.

The Texas numbers are a bit more complex, because the caucus results are still being tabulated. But here's the gist, according to MSNBC right now: She won 46 delegates to his 34. If you include those numbers, she had a net gain of 23 delegates last night.

But before factoring in Texas, Hillary's delegate gain was only 13 higher than his -- and after the caucus results are tabulated, she could see that total sink to as low as seven, MSNBC says, adding that it's also possible that Obama won't cut into that lead by as much as expected, leaving her with a more-than-10-point gain.

Bottom line: According to MSNBC's current projections she could net anywhere from seven to a bit over 10 delegates.

This, obviously, is hardly major progress, given Obama's overall pledged delegate lead of roughly 150 or more. But it's more than some commentators were predicting she'd gain.

As MSNBC put it: "It's impressive nonetheless since so many folks predicted her not even netting 10 delegates last night."

More when we have harder numbers.

Despite Hillary's big wins in Ohio and Texas last night, some super-delegates are already suggesting that a continued contest risks damaging the party and are calling on Howard Dean and other party leaders to be ready to intervene should the race get dirtier:

"Despite Obama's impressive victories in February, Clinton's comeback is based on sowing political seeds of doubt," said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist and one of nearly 800 party leaders known as superdelegates for their ability to determine the nomination. "In order to clinch the nomination, he must anticipate the worst attacks ever."...

Some superdelegates are bracing themselves to intervene on Obama's behalf if necessary.

"If these attacks are contrasts based on policy differences, there is no need to stop the race or halt the debate," Brazile said. "But, if this is more division, more diversion from the issues and more of the same politics of personal destruction, chairman Dean and other should be on standby."

Consider that a harbinger of what we're likely to hear from other super-delegates if the race gets uglier without significantly altering the underlying pledged-delegate imbalance between the two candidates.

One outstanding question today: Will that bloc of super-dels who were reported to be ready to bolt to Obama last night materialize, or did Hillary's wins staunch that bleeding for now?

Late Update: The Hotline has an Obama spokesperson flatly denying that any kind of bloc of super-dels was set to get behind Obama.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton is out with this statement on tonight's results:

“Tonight was the Clinton campaign’s last best chance to make a significant dent in our lead in pledged delegates and they have failed. In our latest projections, we will win the Texas caucus with a double-digit margin and any pledged delegate shift will be absolutely minimal. In fact, Clinton’s chances of regaining the delegate lead actually decreased tonight, as the number of delegates remaining dwindles."

Notwithstanding the shift in momentum and the P.R. victory tonight's results hand Hillary, it's possible that she'll finish the night without cutting into Obama's delegate lead at all.

On MSNBC a few moments ago Chuck Todd estimated that Hillary might pull seven delegates out of Ohio tonight. Todd also presumes that her Rhode Island victory and Obama's Vermont victory will cancel each other out.

And so, if Obama manages to win delegates out of Texas (thanks to the caucuses) that offset Hillary's Ohio delegate gain, she could end the night in pretty much the same position as she was in yesterday, at least as far as the pledged delegate count is concerned.

She won big victories tonight, no question, but it's unclear yet whether the shift in narrative she'll enjoy will transform the race's stubborn underlying dynamic in any significant way.

It's been a long time since Hillary delivered a victory speech, and she is clearly relishing it right now in her victory speech in Ohio. She wasted no time hitting the comeback-kid theme hard in her first words:

For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you.

Also noteworthy: She said that she congratulated Senator McCain on his victory tonight, and noted that she looks forward to a "spirited debate" with him. Of course, there are a few more Dem primary contests -- not to mention Obama's big pledged-delegate lead -- that she'll have to get past first.

More of the speech soon.

Late Late Update: In the speech Hillary slips in a bit of mockery of Obama's "hope" rhetoric:

Together we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

CNN and MSNBC call Ohio for Hillary, virtually ensuring that this contest will continue for the foreseeable future. The spread right now: 57%-41% with 53% reporting.

Hillary looks poised to grab this moment and milk it for all it's worth -- she's set to speak any second now. More soon.

Late Update: In her Ohio victory speech, Hillary quickly hits comeback-kid theme.

Late Late Update: Ohio governor Ted Strickland, speaking tonight, hailed Hillary's victory, but inadvertently made it clear that she still faces a steep uphill climb by appealing for donations and bringing up her need for Michigan and Florida:

"I want to say to you and I want to say to America: Let her continue this fight. Let all the people have a chance to vote before we end this contest," he says.

Then he lists the states to come, concluding: "Let us go to Michigan and Florida."

And finally, as direct an ask for money as you'll hear at an event like this:

"I want you and all America to send your money to HillaryClinton.com," he says.

Late Late Update: Hillary, in her victory speech, slips in a bit of mockery of Obama's "hope" rhetoric:

Together we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

Late Update: Hillary wins Texas, giving her three out of four contests tonight and a victory in both her key firewall states.

Late Update: So what about the delegates?

Even if Hillary did win three victories tonight, it's unclear whether she'll end up reducing Obama's delegate lead. On MSNBC just now Chuck Todd estimated that she'd likely end up with seven delegates out of Ohio. Hillary's victory in Rhode Island and Obama's in Vermont are expected to cancel each other out. And depending on the Texas caucus results, Obama could end up with a delegate lead out of Texas that could cancel out Hillary's Ohio gain.

So it's not inconceivable that Hillary, notwithstanding the clear shift in momentum and the big P.R. victory she'll earn, could end the night with no real delegate gain.

Late Update: The Obama campaign is out with a new statement arguing that Hillary's chances of winning the nomination actually decreased tonight.

Obama campaign advisers are privately urging the networks and media figures to consider, as they evaluate the incoming results, that in Ohio there are areas where as much as 15% of the vote is provisional ballots.

The Obama camp isn't urging the networks to hold off on calling the race, but is suggesting that media types keep this fact in mind as they navigate competing efforts by the campaigns to suggest that they're on the way to victory.

Obama campaign aides are arguing that media folks should keep in mind that the provisional ballots come in later, and that since those ballots come from African American areas, such as Cleveland, the earlier totals are likely to favor Hillary. They're saying that it would be disenfranchising to black voters to calculate the results before these provisional ballots are in.

In conversations with media figures, Obama aides are pointing out that the nets erroneously called Missouri for Hillary before the provisional ballots came in and were later forced to reverse the results when those ballots came in from the St. Louis area and put Obama over the top.

While we're waiting for the Ohio results, which are too close to call, here's an interesting number from the exit polls: Hillary won by 11 points among voters who made up their minds in the last three days, 55%-44%.

This suggests the possibility that the Obama-NAFTA-Goolsbee story moved votes in the state, but who knows.

One other key number: Hillary is winning by 11 points among white men, who had been going for Obama, which is probably a reflection of the state's larger working class vote.

Some info from the exit polls that will lend comfort to the Obama camp:

The ability to "bring needed change" beats "experience" as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results.

A possible harbinger of a closer-than-expected outcome in Ohio and who-knows-what in Texas...

Thanks in part to the lack of a competitive GOP contest, a lot of Republican voters are crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary — so much so that Democratic ballot requests are out-numbering the Republicans in even a lot of GOP strongholds. Just who is benefitting, though, it not yet clear.

In the heavily-GOP Cleveland suburb of Chagrin Falls, an estimated 70% of today's ballots are being cast in the Dem race. And judging by the folks who talked to the Plain Dealer and indicated who they'd voted for, they were breaking mostly for Hillary Clinton. We'll find out tonight just how widespread that pattern was.

If this is an indication of what Dem party infrastructure types will be saying about Hillary and the general election after the dust settles from today's contests, she will need a major win in Texas and Ohio to avert pressure to get out of the race:

State Democratic Chairman Chris Redfern said Mrs. Clinton needs an 8-point victory margin in Ohio and Texas to remain in the race against Mr. Obama, who now has a lead of about 100 delegates and victories in the last 11 contests.

"She must, in my opinion, make that kind of show. It's not an either-or," Mr. Redfern said. "If we don't have a nominee sooner rather than later, it makes it increasingly difficult to defeat John McCain."

People like Redfern, the Ohio state chair, will only grow more vocal in the days ahead, obviously. So it's do or die -- now.

The Campaign To Defend America, a new pro-Democratic 501(c)(4) issue-advocacy group, is already previewing the Dem narrative against John McCain: That he's just the "McSame" as what we've gotten under Bush. The group is now running ads in Ohio with that "McSame" title on both TV and radio, according to FEC filings. We'll post a "McSame" ad as soon as we have it.

The Campaign's source of money for the ad: The Fund For America, a Democratic 527 group set up just for this election cycle. The Fund donated $400,000 to the Campaign, of which $141,073.06 has already been spent.

Going into tonight's races in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont, Hillary Clinton has a lot of ground to make up in the delegate race. With 370 delegates up for grabs, She would need a net win of around 15% in order to really make a dent in Barack Obama's lead of 150 pledged delegates.

Here are the latest tabulations from different news organizations, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Obama 1,378, Clinton 1,269
CNN: Obama 1,184, Clinton 1,031 (Not counting supers)
NBC: Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037 (Not counting supers)
ABC: Obama 1,385, Clinton 1,275
CBS: Obama 1,389, Clinton 1,267
Associated Press: Obama 1,386, Clinton 1,276
Associated Press: Obama 1,187, Clinton 1,035 (Not counting supers)
New York Times: Obama 1,303.5, Clinton 1,212
New York Times: Obama 1,155, Clinton 1,021.5 (Not counting supers)

And here's how many delegates are up for grabs tonight:

Ohio: 141
Rhode Island: 21
Texas Primary: 126
Texas Caucus: 67
Vermont: 15
Total: 370

Some commentators have said that Hillary should drop out of the race if she doesn't win both Ohio and Texas today, but rank and file Dems don't seem to agree:

Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both.

This suggests that rank and file Dems haven't really focused on the reality of the delegate math, which in turn suggests that the onus may be on the Obama camp to get out their message about their sizable pledged delegate lead a bit more effectively.

Whatever the cause, numbers such as these might persuade the Hillary camp that she'd have public support if she stayed in the race despite losing a big state today, perhaps making that decision more likely.

The final Zogby tracking polls for today's big races put Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead in Texas, but only tied with Barack Obama in Ohio. On top of that, the undecideds are a fairly significant amount. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Ohio:
Clinton 44% (-1)
Obama 44% (-3)

Texas:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Obama 44% (-3)

From John Zogby's analysis: "Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story."

Yesterday Bill Richardson gave an interview that has gotten a bunch of attention already, because in it he said that Dems should coalesce behind the candidate with the "clear lead" after tomorrow's voting.

"Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee," Richardson said.

But Richardson also offered up some other comments in that interview that have passed unnoticed: Specifically, he criticized Hillary's "red phone" ad, which Hillary pollster Mark Penn credits with shifting the race her way...

He was outspoken in his criticism of Clinton's new "ringing phone" ad, which suggests that Obama is not ready to become commander in chief.

"I happen to disagree with that ad that says that Senator Obama is not ready," he said. "He is ready. He has great judgment, an internationalist background."

That Richardson would directly fault Hillary's core closing argument, and endorse Obama's central claim to having sound judgment, seems telling -- another sign that Richardson may be laying the groundwork to endorse Obama, should tomorrow's results give him an opening to do so.

The new SurveyUSA poll finds that Hillary has successfully stopped -- and reversed -- Obama's momentum in Ohio.

She leads him by 10 points -- 54%-44% -- a spread that's up from six points a week ago (though overall, it's down from the 17-point lead she held three weeks ago).

One potentially key finding from the survey: She leads him by 13% among the early voting. If this is correct, the pollsters say, Obama would need to carry Primary Day precinct voters 52% to 48% if he is to win Ohio.

Hillary has also expanded her Ohio lead in polls from Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling (D), while slipping in Quinnipiac and Zogby. On the whole, her lead appears to have gone up.

Of course, in the end, a Hillary victory in Ohio doesn't mean much at all if she loses in Texas.