The Democrats have picked up another House seat tonight, with Dem candidate Mary Jo Kilroy now declared the winner in the open 15th District, by a margin of just 0.76%, in a race that took over a month to count.
The result for this race was delayed by legal wrangling over about 1,000 provisional ballots, which was in turn holding up the actual counting of about 27,000 additional provisional votes. Once those issues were all settled in court, the count was finally able to proceed and show that Kilroy pulled off the win.
Only two House races are not totally over: A recount seems likely in Louisiana's Fourth District, where Republican John Fleming has a lead of 356 votes with some provisionals remaining to be tallied; and GOP Rep. Virgil Goode from Virginia is in the middle of a recount, but it seems unlikely to reverse his narrow loss.
Assuming the apparent winners in those remaining races hold up, Democrats have picked up a net 21 House seats, for a total of 257 Democratic seats to the Republicans' 178.
Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:
GOP Releases Excerpt From The Kentucky Voice Recorder
The Kentucky voice-recorder saga -- involving a criminal complaint by the NRSC that the campaign of Dem Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford allegedly erased content from a voice recorder they secretly planted at his podium -- just keeps getting weirder. The NRSC has released this piece of audio recovered from the recorder after its return, of what appears to be an angry Lunsford telling his staffers not to give the recorder back:
This has got to be one of the most bizarre allegations of a dirty trick ever: That a campaign secretly planted a bug on an opposing candidate, then complained when the bug was not initially returned and may have been erased.
Murtha's Opponent Blasts Him On Racist/Redneck Comments
Check out this new ad from William Russell, the GOP candidate against Jack Murtha, hammering Murtha for referring to his western Pennsylvania constituents as rednecks and racists:
Murtha is usually a safe bet for re-election, but this gaffe may have landed him in serious trouble. A recent Susquehanna poll shows Murtha just edging out Russell 46%-41%. A fun part of this ad is its use of a computer interface to show videos of Murtha -- as if to say that the people of western Pennsylvania do in fact know how to read and use a computer.
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: An avalanche of polls shows the Democrats running ahead or close behind in several seats that have been in GOP hands for years -- suggesting the possibility of major Dem gains.
GOP Rep's Ad: I'm Sorry I Went On An Abramoff Trip
This ad needs to be seen to be believed. Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas, has this new ad in which he speaks to the camera and abjectly apologizes for going on an Abramoff-sponsored trip five years ago:
"I embarrassed myself, embarrassed you, and for that I'm very sorry," Feeney says.
Polls Show Big House Races In Ohio This Year
A new set of SurveyUSA polls in Ohio show Dems poised to pick up two out of four contested GOP-held district. In the First District, incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is holding a small lead over challenger Steve Driehaus (D) 46%-44%. In the Second District, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is holding an 8-point lead over challenger Victoria Wulsin (D) 48%-40%. But in the open 15th and 16th Districts Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has a 47%-42% lead over Steve Stivers (R), and John Boccieri (D) has a 49%-41% lead over Kirk Schuring (R).
New Obama Ad Uses McCain's Own Words About Supporting Bush
The Obama campaign has a new TV ad in response to John McCain's "Original Maverick" ad, rerunning a video from 2003 of McCain himself boasting that he's voted with President Bush more than 90% of the time:
Obama Campaigning With Evan Bayh In Indiana Today
Barack Obama is holding a town hall event today in Elkhart, Indiana, with the focus on energy issues. Accompanying him at the event is Senator Evan Bayh, whose name is enjoying a lot of media attention as a potential vice president -- indeed, this very event has been the cause of some speculation that he would be announced as the running mate.
McCain Visiting West Virginia And Ohio
John McCain has no announced public events for today. (Late Update: McCain is spending the day in West Virginia and Ohio.)
McCain Camp: Paris Hilton Supports Us On Energy!
The McCain campaign has responded to Paris Hilton's Web video from last night: "It sounds like Paris Hilton supports John McCain's 'all of the above' approach to America's energy crisis - including both alternatives and drilling. Paris Hilton might not be as big a celebrity as Barack Obama, but she obviously has a better energy plan."
Obama Camp Targeting Florida Voters Right At The Gas Pumps
Talk about targeting an ad: The Obama campaign will be running this ad, which was first rolled out yesterday, on a network of TVs that are placed on gas pumps throughout Florida. The ad tells viewers that John McCain isn't to be trusted on energy issues, because he's been around for 26 years and hasn't gotten anything done:
McCain: I Don't Disagree With Obama On Tire Pressure
John McCain is apparently backing down from his campaign's mockery of Barack Obama's call for Americans to keep their tires inflated. "I don't disagree with that. The American Automobile Association strongly recommends it," McCain said last night -- though he added that it's still not enough.
Michigan Congresswoman Kilpatrick Narrowly Survives Primary
Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of the scandal-plagued Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, narrowly won her re-election battle in last night's Democratic primary. Kilpatrick won 39% of the vote over her closest challenger's 36%, with the fact that the opposition was split with another candidate almost certainly making the difference.
Poll: Dem Ahead For GOP-Held Seat In Ohio
A new SurveyUSA poll shows the Democrat narrowly ahead for the open GOP-held 15th Congressional District in Ohio: County commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 47%, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) 44%. Kilroy previously ran in 2006 and just barely lost to incumbent Congresswoman Deborah Pryce, who announced her retirement last year.
Republicans have finally found a replacement candidate for the seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH): Steve Stivers, a state Representative and Iraq War veteran, told the Columbus Dispatch that he will run for Congress.
Stivers, who initially declined to run for the seat, is ending a tense period for the Ohio GOP, which had failed to attract any strong candidates to the race in the nearly three months since Pryce made her surprise announcement. Stivers will likely face Franklin County Commissioner and 2006 Democratic nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D) for the seat in this toss-up district.
GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce, who won reelection by just over 1,000 votes last year, will announce tomorrow that she's decided against seeking reelection in 2008, according to reports in the local Ohio press.
The Columbus Dispatch, citing Republican sources, reports today that Pryce concluded that it had become too daunting to raise a daughter in Ohio with her schedule in Washington. But also weighing on her mind might have been the fact that last year's opponent, Mary Joe Kilroy, is challenging her again with aggressive backing from national Dems.
Indeed, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Doug Thornell sent Election Central the following statement:
With yet another open seat to defend, this is a significant blow to National Republicans already burdened with a record of standing with George Bush at the expense of a new direction in Iraq and change here in America. Mary Jo Kilroy came within a 1055 votes of winning last cycle and we expect this race to provide us with a tremendous opportunity to strengthen our majority.
Meanwhile, Columbus-based Democratic consultant Dale Butland tells Roll Call that another grueling contest against Kilroy likely tipped Pryce's decision.
“The prospect of another grueling race certain tends to concentrate the mind and I think that given the fact that President Bush’s popularity is even lower than it was when she barely squeaked by before, I think made her realize that this was going to be a very difficult uphill fight,” Butland said.
More from the Dispatch on potential Republican candidates for the race here.
GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has officially been reelected to the House of Representatives, after an automatic recount found that Pryce had prevailed over Dem challenger Mary Jo Kilroy by the slimmest of margins, the Associated Press reports. The first vote count found Pryce up by 1,055 votes, a total that fell within the half of one percent margin required to trigger a recount. The final tally found yesterday that Pryce had increased her margin of victory by seven votes, to 1,062.
GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has won reelection to the House of Representatives, but her margin of victory was so slim that it will trigger a recount, the Associated Press is reporting. Pryce got 50.2 percent of the vote over 49.8 for Dem Mary Jo Kilroy -- and a recount is automatically triggered if the difference between the two candidates is under one-half of one percent. Though a Pryce spokesman claims to be confident that a recount won't alter the result, a Kilroy adviser claims he's "very happy" that a recount is mandated. Pryce is a seven-term incumbent whose lead evaporated amid the Mark Foley scandal after it emerged that Pryce had publicly fingered Foley as one of her best friends in Washington.
Here's a rundown of the latest developments in the yet-to-be officially decided House races:
Fl-13: Problems still abound in this district, where about 15 percent of all Sarasota County voters using touch-screen machines didn't register a choice in the Congressional race. Lawyers for Dem Christine Jennings recently complained that GOPer Vern Buchahan is purposely stalling the audit of the voting machines by failing to offer up his an expert to participate in the process. A manual recount is underway, but the audit by the state is Jennings only real chance to successfully contest the election. Paul Kiel has more on this race over at TPMMuckraker.
LA-02: The runoff election between two Democrats, Rep. William Jeffereson and Karen Carter, will occur on Dec. 9.
NC-08: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes' lead over Dem Larry Kissell narrowed to 400 votes Friday after six counties reported official election results. Four more counties still need to report their official results. The Hayes campaign has petitioned for the majority of provisional ballots to be thrown out.
NM-01: Republicans are again claiming victory for Rep. Heather Wilson as the final tally is expected to be finished Friday afternoon.
OH-02: Local boards of elections will begin counting more than 8,200 provisional ballots on Monday. Democrats are complaining that confusion of voter ID laws will cause many votes to not be counted.
OH-15: The final count will be delayed until Nov. 27 because of new rules for counting provisional ballots. About 19,500 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in the district. GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce currently leads Dem Mary Jo Kilroy by 3,536 votes.
TX-23: The runoff election between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and Dem Ciro Rodriguez has not been officially scheduled yet, but will occur no sooner than Dec. 12.
WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner has officially decided against seeking a recount solidifying GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin's victory.
For a complete look at all the results of the midterms, check out TPM's Election Central Scoreboard here.
The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided — and the latest is that no one has conceded their races since late last week. A full rundown of where the outstanding races stand right now after the jump.
Though the Democrats have conclusively gained control of the House with a pick up of at least 27 seats, 13 races have yet to be officially called by at least two major news sources. Here's why:
Update: CNN and NBC have both called GA-08 for Dem Rep. Jim Marshall and PA-06 for GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach.
Update 2: In PA-08, GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick concedes.
From the Election Protection coalition's morning update email:
EP volunteers and the EP hotline received widespread [reports] of voting machine problems leading to delays, as well as problems with confusion implementing the state’s photo ID requirement. Additionally, one polling place opened late because of an overnight break in. A local TV station aired footage of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s battle with an optical scan voting machine, which repeatedly rejected her ballot.
Did GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce skip out on a restaurant check — causing the restaurant to go out of business? A former restaurateur named Sheila Hunter has just written a letter to a local newspaper, the Madison Press, complaining that a recent Pryce campaign event at the restaurant ran up a bill for $150. The letter complains that the Price campaign took several weeks to pay, with several attempts on Hunter's part to collect — and by the time the check finally came, the restaurant had closed. Hunter called the delayed payment "a straw that broke my back." The campaign manager for Pryce's Dem opponent, Mary Jo Kilroy, pounced: "This sure wasn't Signatures, Jack Abramoff's restaurant, that could afford to give away expensive meals to yield influence over powerful friends. I guess Pryce has been in Washington so long she doesn't know the difference anymore."
Campaign stunts like these are usually pulled by long-shot challengers desperate for publicity — but this time, it was the work of 14-year GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce against Dem challenger Mary Jo Kilroy. The Columbus Dispatch reports that Pryce showed up unannounced at Kilroy's campaign headquarters on the back of a flatbed truck, flanked by supporters. Pryce then challenged Kilroy to a "sidewalk debate" on the Medicare D benefit. When Kilroy (who wasn't there) didn't respond, Pryce boasted: "Well, maybe she’ll show up another time." The implication was that the absent Kilroy was afraid to debate. But there's a small problem with this.
The problem is that it turns out that Pryce may have known beforehand that Kilroy wouldn't be there. A Kilroy staffer has told Election Central that Pryce's staff had previously issued the "sidewalk debate" challenge in advance — and had been told by Kilroy's staff that Kilroy wouldn't be in the office that day. So Pryce showed up at the Kilroy campaign offices to announce the challenge — even though her own staff knew Kilroy wouldn't be there. The above YouTube was produced by the Kilroy campaign.
A group of wealthy Wall Street-types is raising last minutes funds for threatened moderate Republicans like Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, Nancy Johnson, and Deborah Pryce. "Republicans Who Care," lead by executives from places like Goldman Sachs and Chase Manhattan, had raised $385,000 as of September 30th and plans to spend everything it can to help fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans hold their seats. The group was initially founded to counteract the effect of the anti-moderate Club for Growth and, as Ari Berman at the Nation points out, its name begs the question: "Does that mean that the rest of the Republicans are members of 'Republicans Who Don't Care'?"
In today's New York Times GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce admits that her friendship with Mark Foley has done her bid for reelection serious damage:
[Pryce] said in an interview on a tense day of campaigning here, her own internal polls have measured a steady drop in support under the weight of attacks by Mary Jo Kilroy, her Democratic opponent.
Ms. Kilroy has emphasized Ms. Pryce’s connections to Mr. Foley, who was on a list of five people Ms. Pryce said she considered Washington friends in the Columbus Monthly interview.
“I’m totally convinced,” Ms. Pryce said, her voice faint, as she described why her support had declined. “All our polling showed we were going in the right direction until this happened. It fell precipitously.”
Hastert, Reynolds, now Pryce? How many members of the House leadership will go?
In another sign that Dems are using Foleygate to take the battle to GOP "values" turf, a Democrat is now running an ad on Christian radio attacking GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce over the scandal. Dem Mary Jo Kilroy's ad declares: "Pryce is protecting Hastert, even though he protected a sex predator." You can listen to the ad right here.
The Hartford Courant ran an interesting story on Friday arguing that the Foley scandal would be politically beneficial not just for Democrats, but specifically for female candidates:
Analysts see political gold for women in the scandal surrounding Foley, a Florida Republican who sent lurid computer messages to young congressional pages. GOP leaders - mostly men - are facing pointed questions over when they knew about the messages and what they did about it.
"Women are seen as the protectors of children, and this is the kind of thing they would not have let go," said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics in New Brunswick, N.J.
The article sites Diane Farrell of Connecticut, Patty Wetterling of Minnesota, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio, Patricia Madrid of New Mexico and Angie Paccione of Colorado as examples of Democratic women in close races who are addressing the issue aggressively. Chuck Todd of the National Journal pointed out the same thing in his race rankings on Friday: Democratic women are gaining.
The Hill today notes that Ohio Representative Deborah Pryce is in a new situation:
In previous years, Pryce, who chairs the GOP Conference, has held fundraising events and channeled money to promising women candidates and vulnerable female GOP members through her Value in Electing Women, or VIEWPAC. But this year, Pryce is locked in a tight race and is focusing her late campaign efforts on retaining her seat.
The Columbus Dispatch today charitably describes her challenge, and that of many of her fellow GOP incumbents, as a "delicate verbal pirouette" to embrace Bush on some issues but establish distance. Pryce and her Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy are trading words on typical ground: trade, Iraq and tax cuts.
Ohio2006 blog caught yesterday a good example of what we should expect as a part of this complicated coreography:
