NY-29

A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:

"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."

Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.

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Polls: Dems Could Sweep House Rematches

A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.

Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:

IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.

IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.

NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.

NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.

NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.

PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.

WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.

If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.


NY-29: Dem Massa Wins Big Labor Endorsement

Big score for retired navy commander and Dem congressional candidate Eric Massa: AFL-CIO throws its weight behind him after switching support from incumbent GOP Rep. Randy Kuhl -- further imperiling the GOP's hold on one of most hotly-contested seats in the country.

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