Here's our final nightly run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Senator's Campaign Denies Distributing Sample Ballot Implying He's A Dem
Check this out. The campaign of Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who is running in a special election that won't have party affiliation listed on the ballot, is being accused by the Dems of circulating this misleading sample ballot that asks recipients to vote for the Democratic candidates in every race -- except his own:

As Phil Singer remarks: "I can't remember the last time a Mississippi Republican pretended to be a Democrat in a statewide election."

Late Update: In an interview with Election Central, Wicker spokesman Ryan Annison denied any involvement by the campaign. "The honest to goodness truth is this is the first time we've seen it," said Annison. "At five o'clock the night before the election, I can't say that our opponent's press releases are a priority."

Obama Cuts Radio Ad For Wicker's Opponent
Meanwhile, the campaign of Wicker's Democratic opponent Ronnie Musgrove has this radio ad targeted at Democratic voters, featuring Barack Obama reminding listeners who it is that he'd like them to support:

Click To Play

The trouble that these candidates have gone to in order to inform people of their party affiliations -- and perhaps to obfuscate that point -- is as good an argument as any against non-partisan elections.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

DSCC Ad: Coleman Refuses To Answer Questions About Lawsuit Allegations
The DSCC ad is closing out the Minnesota Senate race with this new TV ad calling GOP Sen. Norm Coleman flagrantly corrupt, focusing on last-minute lawsuits alleging that a donor funneled $75,000 to the Senator via his wife:

The most recent polling has shown the momentum swinging back to Coleman after a period in which Al Franken had taken the lead. But if the local news media ends up being focused in the last few days on corruption allegations against Coleman, it's possible that the undecideds and soft supporters of third-party candidate Dean Barkley could break to Franken.

Coleman Ad Fires Back, Accuses Franken Of Being Behind The Suit
Norm Coleman had his own ad, accusing Al Franken of being behind the lawsuits and conspiring to attack Coleman's wife:

"This time, Al Franken's crossed the line," Coleman says, his wife by his side. "My name's on the ballot -- I'm fair game for his ugly smears. My wife and family are not." The Franken campaign has strongly denied any involvement in the lawsuits.

Read more »

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

Bachmann Rolls Out Attack Ads Against Tinklenberg -- With Fake Citations
Michele Bachmann has unleashed a new wave of attack ads against El Tinklenberg, the relatively-conservative Democrat who has taken a narrow lead in the polls in the wake of her disastrous appearance on Hardball. Here's one of them, alleging that he broke the law and rigged contracts when he was the state's commissioner of transportation:

Meanwhile, Minnesota Public Radio says the facts contradict Bachmann's claims, right down to the claim that the Minneapolis Star-Tribune said Tinklenberg broke the law: "But the stories did not claim Tinklenberg broke the law." Furthermore, a 2003 report from the state's legislative auditor, which looked into the bidding processes of several government agencies, never mentioned Tinklenberg himself or alleged any crimes.

CQ: Dems Poised For Historic Second Wave
CQ's latest House race ratings show the Democrats headed for a historic second consecutive wave election, with double-digit gains in the House. If the 25 races currently rated as toss-ups are split evenly between the two parties -- an essentially neutral and cautious assumption -- the Dems would have an overall net gain of 18 or 19 seats, for a total of 254 or 255 seats.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The economy continues to dominate the down-ticket races, and it's looking more and more like Dems stand to make significant gains off the crisis.

Cook Report: Dems Could Potentially Reach 60 Senate Seats
Charlie Cook writes in his latest column that although it remains a long-shot, the chances have gone up considerably for Democrats to reach 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. "Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP," Cook writes. "Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances."

Dem Ad: Social Security Privatization A Roller-Coaster Ride On Wall St.
Check out this ad from the DCCC, reminding voters that GOP candidates who want to invest Social Security funds in the stock market don't exactly have a strong case in light of the current financial crisis. This one targets Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican nominee for an open GOP-held seat in Missouri:

"But Luetkemeyer supports privatizing Social Security, risking your retirement on the Wall St. roller-coaster," the announcer says, as the camera progresses to the top of a roller-coaster. "So if you or a loved one plan to depend on Social Security, hold on tight."

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The political attacks today have been particularly rough, with candidates being charged with exporting jobs, crafting legislation to benefit themselves financially -- and writing pornography.

NRSC Ad: Al Franken Jokes About Rape, Physically Assaults People
Wow. The NRSC's new ad against Al Franken doesn't pull any punches, calling him "unfit for office" due in part to the many sick jokes he's told over the years as a comedian:

"Franken writes about committing rape," the announcer says. "Franken writes pornography so vile, Democrats denounced it."

Poll: Minnesota Senate Race A Dead Heat
A new Rasmussen poll confirms just how close the Minnesota Senate race is -- and explains why both sides are busy running the nastiest attack ads they can think of. The numbers: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 48%, Al Franken (D) 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Last month, the two of them were tied 45%-45%.

Read more »

So now we know what Jack Davis -- who made it easier for rich folks to buy office by getting the Millionaire's Amendment overturned at the Supreme Court -- is doing with all his money.

He's buying gas for voters, the Rochester Democrat And Chronicle reports.

Davis, who is running in the Democratic primary for an open GOP-held seat that he previously ran for in 2004 and 2006, held a campaign event Thursday at a local gas station, paying the difference so that voters driving through could buy gas at $1.50 a gallon, the price before George W. Bush took office.

This tactic was previously used by other candidates in primaries and special elections this cycle, some of them self-financiers and others not. Many of them won their contests.

(Thank you to TPM Reader DW.)

Yet another Republican swing seat has opened up in the House. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), the former NRCC head who barely survived his 2006 re-election over a lackluster opponent as a result of his implication in the Mark Foley scandal, will reportedly announce his retirement.

Reynolds' Upstate New York district went 55%-43% for President Bush in 2004, and 52%-45% for Bush in 2000. With the GOP suffering generally and in New York particularly, expect this sudden opening to be very closely contested this November.

Over at The Daily Politics, Ben Smith is reporting that the National Republican Congressional Committee was having private discussions over how to do "damage control" on Foleygate earlier than suspected:

Two senior aides to National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds participated in “damage control” conference calls concerning correspondence between Congressman Mark Foley and a former congressional page -- two days before the scandal became public, and earlier than previously reported.

There's a new poll out from SurveyUSA which says that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds — who'd slipped far behind in recent polls against Dem Jack Davis due to Foleygate — has retaken the lead, 49%-46%. As The Daily Politics notes, "Reynolds has gained 4 points and Davis has lost 4 points" since two weeks ago." Is Davis' lack of campaign skills to blame? A profile of Davis in today's Washington Post suggests the answer may be Yes. The 73-year old Davis says he doesn't "see the point" of "wasting time going around campaigning" and has no events scheduled. Meanwhile, Reynolds has tons of money and is fighting back — hard. Could Davis be blowing it? Read the Post piece and decide for yourself.

Incoming! Via Ben Smith of The Daily Politics, it looks as if the Republican National Committee is rushing in to bail out NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. The RNC has a new ad attacking Reynolds's Dem foe by saying that people should get ready for "higher prices" because "Jack Davis wants tarrifs on many of the products you buy." It seems the RNC is referring to Davis' call for retaliatory tariffs on goods from China -- a position awfully similar to a bill recently co-sponsored by GOP Senator Lindsey Graham. As Smith notes, it's Davis's message which "clearly connects with people in Buffalo." View it here.

Thanks to Foleygate, the GOP is now having to expend major resources to defend Tom Reynolds's seat. Today's FEC filing shows a one-day expenditure of $229360.60 by the Republican National Committee against Dem nominee Jack Davis — the first expenditure in the race by the RNC during this whole cycle.

Uh oh. John McCain has bailed out of an event at which he was scheduled to come in and stump for embattled NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. McCain's replacement? A man whose approval rating is in the 20s. The Buffalo News reports:

Erie County Republicans on Tuesday quickly recruited White House power hitter Karl Rove to speak at their annual black-tie dinner Oct. 20 after the front-runner for the party's presidential nomination, Sen. John McCain, dropped out unexpectedly.

In addition to speaking at the dinner, McCain was scheduled to lead a rally in Buffalo for embattled Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-Clarence. McCain's office Tuesday scrubbed both events, claiming that the popular Arizona Republican had a scheduling conflict.

Over at TPMmuckraker, Paul Kiel details the rash of other sudden scheduling conflicts afflicting people involved in Foleygate.

Dem Jack Davis goes up on the air attacking floundering NRCC chief Tom Reynolds over Foleygate: "Reynolds says he did nothing wrong. But when it comes to protecting kids, isn't it wrong to do nothing?"

Ben Smith of The Daily Politics finds a problem: The ad, he notes, "suggests that he urged Foley to seek reelection because Foley had given $100,000 to the NRCC -- though those things happened in the reverse order."

Check out this new ad blasting NRCC chief Tom Reynolds for his mishandling of Foleygate. The ad was funded by Majority Action, a 527 running ads upstate which was set up by big Dem operatives like former DNC chairs Joe Andrew and Don Fowler. You hear spooky piano music as literally dozens of adjectives flash on the screen (beastly, vile, sleazy, etc.), along with discolored pics of Reynolds and Dennis Hastert. It concludes: "Tell Tom Reynolds and Republican leaders to drop the politics. Stop the cover-up. Tell the truth, or resign." As Capitol Confidential observes: "Someone really gave the thesaurus a workout on this one." View it here.

It looks as if NRCC chief Tom Reynolds may have gone much farther than is previously known to persuade Mark Foley to run for reelection this year. Robert Novak -- who on Friday reported that Reynolds persuaded Foley to run for reelection despite his rumored sexual problems -- has now expanded on that story. Novak has just reported that Reynolds persuaded Foley to run despite the fact that Foley had two plush private sector jobs offered to him this year. Novak says Reynolds persuaded him not to take the gigs. More coming.

I just got off the phone with Timothy Heaphy, the lawyer for NRCC chief Tom Reynolds' former chief of staff, Kurt Fordham. And Heaphy's refusing to say whether or not Fordham warned Reynolds about Tom Foley's problem before Reynolds claims to have heard of it. That could spell trouble for Reynolds -- a full explanation after the jump.

Read more »

NRCC chief Tom Reynolds -- who's supposed to be spending all his time helping other GOP Reps keep their jobs -- is now losing by an eye-opening 15 points to Dem challenger Jack Davis, according to a new Zogby International poll done for the Buffalo News. The poll shows Davis leading with 48% of likely voters, to 33% for Reynolds -- a lead that has steadily widened over the last 10 days. The poll also found that of the substantial majority following Foleygate, 57 percent disapproved of Reynolds' handling of it, while only 25 percent approved.

The Buffalo News reports today that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds has a new ad up in which he apologizes for not having responded more aggressively to Mark Foley's "problem." Ben Smith of The Daily Politics has the ad right here. But the paper also has a new interview with NRCC chief Tom Reynolds which raises lots of fresh questions. Reynolds confirms that he asked Mark Foley to run for reelection but claims he can't remember when. At one point, Reynolds says of the initial emails: "Nobody thought it was even newsworthy enough to print." That's false -- the St. Petersburg Times didn't run the story because it was uncomfortable with the sourcing --not because it wasn't newsworthy. More of his evasions after the jump.

Read more »

This is pretty audacious. Endangered NRCC chief Tom Reynolds -- who's suddenly fighting to save his job -- has sent out a nasty new mailer attacking Dem challenger Jack Davis on Social Security. "His dangerous plan will break the promise of Social Security," the mailing warns. But as Reynolds' constituents may recall, Reynolds brought President Bush into his district in May 2005, when Bush's Social Security road road show was faltering, and hosted an event where Bush spoke at length in an effort to save his Social Security phase-out scheme. A few months later, Reynolds quietly reversed course, advising fellow House GOPers that they'd best shelve the plan until after the elections. View Reynolds' flyer here.

NRCC chief Tom Reynolds is trailing Dem challenger Jack Davis by a startling eight points in a new internal poll paid for by Davis and conducted by Stanley Greenberg's polling firm. The poll shows Davis beating Reynolds 50%-42%. Foleygate appears to have taken a serious toll on Reynolds: The poll -- which was conducted on Oct. 3rd and 4th and will be released later this afternoon -- finds that Reynolds' favorability rating is 29%. A SurveyUSA poll released earlier today found that Reynolds had slipped five points behind Davis, a sizeable shift from only a week ago, when a Sept. 29 poll showed Reynolds slightly ahead.

Tom Reynolds -- who as chief of the NRCC is supposed to be worrying about other House races -- is suddenly finding good cause to start worrying about his own. Dem challenger Jack Davis is now leading Reynolds by a surprising five points, 50%-45%, a new poll commissioned by upstate's WGRZ-TV from SurveyUSA finds. Is Foleygate to blame? Unclear. Reynolds' position is actually unchanged from the 45% he had late last month, and Davis' lead is due entirely to his gain of seven points, which could have a great deal to do with the fact that the Green Party candidate -- who late last month commanded eight points -- has since been knocked off the ballot.

The parents of Kirk Fordham, the fired chief of staff to NRCC chief Tom Reynolds, seem to have suggested to an upstate New York radio station that Fordham told Reynolds about the more lurid aspects of Foleygate before the story broke. Though the interview is a bit vague, it suggests that there's more to learn about what Reynolds knew and when he knew it than he's previously acknowledged. From upstate's R News:

A quick point about the apparent firing of Kirk Fordham, the chief of staff to NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. ABC News says that Fordham's allies are defending him by saying that Fordham repeatedly warned Hastert's staff about Mark Foley's "problem" with pages. But paradoxically, this version of events actually makes it look even worse for Fordham's ex-boss -- that is, Reynolds. Here's why: Reynolds' chief of staff, we're told, knew this was a huge problem -- huge enough for him to push Hastert's staff repeatedly. But Reynolds apparently did nothing more than mention it to Hastert. His own chief of staff knew Foley had this "problem," but Reynolds did little to nothing -- one conversation with Hastert, no apparent follow-up. Even worse, if Robert Novak is right, Reynolds even pushed Foley to run again. Bad, bad, bad.