As we head into Election Day tomorrow, a look at polls reveals a fact that hasn't truly sunk in: Tomorrow is not truly Election Day, but more like the end of the Election Weeks, with the Obama campaign having built up substantial leads in early-vote states, which John McCain has to overcome if he wants to pull off a win.

Take a look at these examples:

• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.

• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% -- but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.

• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster's analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama's early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.

It's worth remembering that a whole lot of those Obama campaign rallies over the last few weeks were officially billed as being "Early Vote For Change" rallies, in which Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or some other surrogate would take a moment out from the standard talk about change and hope in order to deliver a civics lesson about how to vote early, and why the audience members should do it right after the rally.

In short, the Obama campaign didn't wait for Election Day to execute their get-out-the-vote strategy. They've been very actively pursuing it this whole time, bringing voters out early so they wouldn't have to worry about it as much on Election Day. And if he narrowly wins any of these red states tomorrow, that strategy may end up having been the decisive factor.

A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.

Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.

McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:

"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

A new round of CNN polls in five red states has some very good news for Barack Obama: He's leading in four out of the five, with a huge lead in Virginia.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was up 51%-47%.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, it was a 49%-49% tie.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama was ahead 50%-47%.

• Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. This is basically unchanged from Obama's 53%-43% lead a week ago.

• West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain was only up 50%-46%, so this is the one sliver of good news for him in here.

All five of these states voted twice for George W. Bush, and the four where Obama is ahead add up to 53 electoral votes. John McCain pretty much needs to hold on to all 53 of them, or else it will be exceedingly difficult for him to pull off a victory.

Sen. Graham: John Lewis Is "Playing The Race Card"
Appearing today on CBS' Face The Nation, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) hit back at Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) for comparing John McCain to George Wallace, and saying that McCain and Sarah Palin were fomenting an atmosphere of violent emotions against Barack Obama. "We're not going to be intimidated by this playing the race card," Graham said, going on to say that the campaign cannot be held responsible "for what one person says at a rally."

NYT: GOPers Unhappy With McCain Campaign
The New York Times reports that many Republicans are unhappy with the McCain campaign's current approach, and the lack of a coherent narrative. "You're starting to feel real frustration because we are running out of time," said Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis. "Our message, the campaign's message, isn't connecting." In particular, there is serious disagreement about how to approach issues like the economy, and whether to go after Obama over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden Campaigning With Bill And Hillary
Barack Obama has no public events today. Joe Biden is holding a big rally today in Scranton, Pennsylvania, featuring Bill and Hillary Clinton, scheduled to begin at 3:15 p.m.

McCain Off The Trail, Palin in West Virginia, Ohio and Virginia.
John McCain does not have any public events scheduled for today. Instead, Sarah Palin is campaigning today in Huntsville, West Virginia, in St. Clairsville, Ohio, and in Norfolk, Virginia.

McCain Camp Backs Away From Minister's Rally Invocation
The McCain campaign was forced yesterday to release a statement backing away from an Iowa minister's invocation at a rally yesterday, in which he asked God to prevent an Obama victory on the grounds that people of other religions were praying for it to happen. The statement from campaign spokesperson Wendy Riemann said that "questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race."

Poll: Obama Well Ahead In Colorado
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a healthy lead in this swing state. The numbers: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, outside of the ±2.7% margin of error

Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In Ohio
A new University of Cincinnati poll gives John McCain a 48%-46% advantage in Ohio, within the ±3.3% margin of error. The previous poll from a month ago gave McCain a 48%-42% lead.

Poll: Obama Takes Small Lead In Nevada
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% in this perennial swing state. The previous poll from two months ago gave McCain a 46%-39% lead.

More polls today show Barack Obama leading in some key red states:

• In Ohio, Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a 49%-43% lead over John McCain, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Three weeks ago, PPP had McCain ahead 48%-44%. Take this as further evidence to suggest that the economic crisis is knocking John McCain down in a lot of places.

• In Florida, Mason-Dixon gives Obama a narrow lead of 48%-46%, within the ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead two-and-a-half weeks ago.

• In Nevada, Research 2000 has Obama ahead 50%-43%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had slim edge of 44%-43%.

All totaled, these three states have 52 electoral votes, and they all voted for George W. Bush in 2004.

Wow. Hours after a set of polls showed Obama gaining in key battlegrounds, another batch of polls from CNN finds additional confirmation that the economic crisis has put Obama way up in other ones:

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±4% margin of error.

Four of these states were won by George W. Bush twice, with Minnesota being the only exception. All totaled, those four red states add up to 56 electoral votes -- and John McCain can barely afford to lose even one electoral vote from the Republican column.

Also, CNN has changed their map to favor Obama a little bit more -- Minnesota has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Obama, and Missouri from Leans McCain to Toss-Up.

The Obama campaign has released a new Spanish TV ad for Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida, hammering John McCain on the economy -- yet another indication of just how much the financial crisis has re-centered the campaign on issues like jobs, health care and housing, rather than foreign policy or immigration.

The ad goes after John McCain's remarks that the fundamentals of the economy are strong:

There is also a radio version that you can listen to here.

The English translation of the script is available after the jump.

Read more »

A new spate of ads suggests that outside groups are finally getting serious about gearing up to assist the Obama and McCain campaigns in a vital task: Attacking the opponent.

Here's an ad from Born Alive Truth, pushing the smear that Obama is pro-infanticide when it comes to babies born in botched abortions:

The ad features a woman born from a failed abortion over 30 years ago: "But if Barack Obama had his way, I wouldn't be here."

And here's a MoveOn ad going after John McCain, revealing who he really means when he talks about "my friends" -- lobbyists:

So when it comes to gas prices, John McCain won't be taking care of you. He'll be taking care of--" the announcer says, followed by footage of McCain saying, "my friends," over and over.

(TV ads via Ben Smith.)

And the RNC has a new pair of radio ads in Nevada, one in English and the other in Spanish, courting voters in this swing state.

Here's the English one, saying that it's Obama who is "more of the same" on earmarks -- and pushing the false idea that Sarah Palin is some kind of fiscal conservative:

"As Governor, Sarah Palin vetoed nearly half a billion dollars in wasteful spending and cut earmark requests by hundreds of millions of dollars," the announcer says. "Barack Obama? In three short years in the Senate, Obama requested nearly a billion dollars in earmarks."

Of course, an examination of per-capita earmark requests shows that Obama is in fact below the national average on earmarks, and Sarah Palin is way, way, way ahead.

And here's the Spanish ad, pitching McCain as the true pro-immigrant candidate against a do-nothing Obama:

"And while the bill didn't pass, only McCain demonstrated a real commitment to reforming immigration in a way that honored our laws as well as our immigrants and traditions," the announcer says, according to the RNC's official translation -- notable in that McCain and Obama voted almost completely alike on the immigration bill, and McCain has since distanced himself from it.

Obama Cancels SNL Appearance, Scales Back Campaigning Due To Ike
The Obama campaign has seriously downsized its campaign appearances for today in recognition of Hurricane Ike, most notably canceling the nominee's scheduled appearance on Saturday Night Live. Obama held a campaign event this morning in Manchester, New Hampshire, but Joe Biden did not also appear as originally intended.

Palin To Do Solo Rally Today
Sarah Palin will be campaigning today in Carson City, Nevada, for her first swing-state campaign event without John McCain himself by her side, scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET. It's a good bet that Palin by herself will get a bigger and more enthusiastic crowd than McCain himself has gotten at his own solo events.

Poll: McCain Backers Now More Enthusiastic Than Obama's
Here's a very interesting number from the new Newsweek poll: Overall, the race is tied 46%-46%, but it's now John McCain's voters who are stronger in their support than Barack Obama's -- a reversal of what we've seen throughout the rest of the cycle. Seventy-one percent of McCain's voters support him strongly, edging out Obama's 67% strong support, compared to 39% strong support for McCain and 61% for Obama from two months ago.

Boston Globe: Palin Really A Big Spender, Tax-Hiker
The Boston Globe reports that contrary to the McCain campaign's manufactured image of Sarah Palin as a fiscal conservative, state government spending has in fact grown by billions of dollars during her short tenure. Thanks to skyrocketing government oil revenues -- helped by Palin's increase in taxes on oil producers -- the size of the state budget has now grown by 30% over the last two fiscal years.

McCain Campaign Admits Palin Didn't Actually Visit Iraq Or Ireland
The Boston Globe has also reported that Sarah Palin did not actually visit Iraq or Ireland, as the McCain campaign previously maintained. When questioned further, McCain campaign aides admitted that Palin only visited troops in Kuwait and did not cross the Iraqi border, and her "travel" to Ireland consisted of a refueling stop.

Poll: McCain Narrowly Ahead In Nevada
A new Rasmussen poll of Nevada gives John McCain a 49%-46% lead in this perennial swing state, within the ±4% margin of error. This result is essentially the same as McCain's 48%-45% lead from a month ago.

Greenspan Critical Of McCain's Tax Plans
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, a lifelong Republican and close associate of Ayn Rand, told Bloomberg that John McCain's proposed $3.3 trillion in tax cuts should only be done if they're accompanied by corresponding budget cuts. "I'm not in favor of financing tax cuts with borrowed money," Greenspan said.

A new round of polls today shows a continued close race in four key battleground states that all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but there is reason for cautious optimism about Barack Obama.

A new University of Akron poll shows Ohio to be tied: Obama 40%, McCain 40%. The internals show just how important Democratic unity is for Obama: Only 45% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in the Ohio primary say they'll vote for Obama, with 29% going for McCain and the rest undecided -- but as this poll totally predates Hillary's big speech at the convention, this could change.

And a new round of CNN polls in three Western states shows Obama generally doing quite well:

• He's up 53%-40% in New Mexico, well outside the ±4% margin of error.

• He's up 49%-44% in Nevada, with a ±4% margin of error -- contrary to other recent polls that have McCain ahead here.

• However, McCain is given a slight edge in the potentially pivotal state of Colorado: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, with a ±4% margin of error. This poll was taken partly during the Dem Convention in Denver, so it's still possible that the convention in its entirety can produce a local bounce.

Late Update: In addition, the CNN poll has Obama up 48%-43% in Pennsylvania.

A new pair of Rasmussen polls gives John McCain narrow leads in the key swing states of Nevada and Virginia, a sign that the presidential race remains very competitive on the state-by-stat level.

The numbers in Nevada: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. In another worry sign for Democrats, McCain's personal ratings are at 58% favorable to 42% unfavorable, compared to only 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable for Obama.

In Virginia: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. McCain's favorable are at 51%-36%, with Obama's at 51%-47%.

New Obama Ad In Nevada Attacks McCain On Yucca Mountain
The Obama campaign has a new negative spot airing in the perennial swing state of Nevada, hammering John McCain on the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. The ad warns Nevadans that John McCain is in favor of opening the repository in their state -- even though he'd be against nuclear waste being brought through his own home state:

Obama Arrives In Hawaii
Barack Obama and his family have arrived in Hawaii for their week-long vacation. Although the trip will be mostly rest and relaxation for the candidate, he did greet supporters at a rally to welcome his arrival: "I'm going to go bodysurfing at an undisclosed location."

McCain In Nevada Today
John McCain will be in Nevada today -- the same state where the Obama people are on the air attacking him -- giving an address to the Disabled American Veterans convention in Las Vegas. The speech is scheduled to begin at 4:45 p.m.

Obama: McCain's Pro-Bush Agenda Goes Against "Country First" Slogan
Barack Obama recorded this week's Democratic rebuttal to the president's weekly radio address -- the first time he has done so as the presumptive nominee for president. Obama used the speech to go after John McCain: "Senator McCain talks about putting our country first, but he is running for a third term of the very same policies that have set our country back. We can't afford to take that chance."

McCain: Obama Is Like "A Big Summer Blockbuster"
John McCain upped the rhetoric in his campaign's efforts to paint Barack obama as a vapid celebrity, using this line in his weekly radio address: "Taking in my opponent's performances is a little like watching a big summer blockbuster, and an hour in realizing that all the best scenes were in the trailer you saw last fall."

Poll: Dem Ahead For Missouri Governor's Race
A new Rasmussen poll of the Missouri gubernatorial race shows Democratic nominee Jay Nixon, the long-serving state attorney general, significantly ahead of Congressman Kenny Hulshof, the Republican nominee. The numbers: Nixon 53%, Hulshof 42%.

Edwards: Photo Of Man With Baby Might Be Me
During his interview yesterday with ABC News, John Edwards did not rule out the possibility that he is the man in the National Enquirer's blurry photograph of a man holding a baby -- alleged by the tabloid to be his own baby with Rielle Hunter. But Edwards said the photo doesn't necessarily mean anything: "Do you know how many pictures have been taken of me holding children in the last three years? I mean it happens all the time."

A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama has moved into a narrow lead in the perennial swing state of Nevada, in line with his campaign's goal of aggressively advertising in Western states.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, John McCain was ahead by three points.

The key number: Obama has improved his showing among core Democrats, suggesting that there isn't much in the way of long-lasting damage from the long primary campaign. Obama now has 79% of core Dems, an improvement from 65% two months ago, and is comparable to McCain's 76% of core Republicans.

A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a big lead in this swing state, which went narrowly to George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004.

The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%. A month ago, Obama had only a 48%-43% edge.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen gives McCain a small lead in Nevada, which voted for Bush twice: McCain 45%, Obama 42%, within the ± 4.5% margin of error.

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows a competitive race for Nevada, a swing Western state that went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but then for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

The numbers: McCain 44%, Obama 42%, within the ±4% margin of error.

The Obama campaign has vowed to fight for Western states, but Nevada appears to be a tougher sell than either Colorado or New Mexico, where polls have put him ahead.

A new Rasmussen poll of Nevada shows that this red state could be poised to vote Democratic this time around, with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton narrowly beating John McCain for now:

Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Nevada is a key swing state that voted twice for President Bush, but only narrowly each time.

The Obama campaign has officially submitted a complaint to the Nevada Democratic Party, citing over 1,600 complaints of malfeasance by the Clinton operation during this weekend's past caucuses. Alleged offenses include early door closings, obstruction voters, and improper handling of voter preference cards.

It's hard to tell just what impact this complaint could have, if any. If it leads to actual infractions by the Hillary operation being uncovered, it might reflect badly on them nationwide — or alternatively, the complaint itself could give Obama's rivals the opening to call him a "sore loser," regardless of whether or not the complaint is accurate.

This happened in a blur late yesterday, so it seems worth a quick revisit to clarify what happened. Yesterday the Hillary and Obama campaigns were battling over who actually won the most delegates, with the Obama campaign and the Associated Press saying the real tally was 13 for the Illinois Senator, and 12 for Hillary.

The Hillary campaign countered that no delegates get officially awarded until April. As noted here yesterday, the Nevada State Democratic Party released this statement to clarify things:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

So it appears likely that the AP's count will stand, and that Obama will end up having won one more delegate last night. The Obama camp is trying to invest this with significance by pointing out that the Hillary camp was describing the race as a battle for delegates after their Iowa loss.

On the other hand, though final tallies aren't yet available, all indications are that the Hillary campaign enjoyed a clear electoral win last night, which the political opinion-making class, and perhaps also the voters, will likely see as having a good deal more significance than Obama's one-delegate advantage.

The Hillary campaign has a new statement out responding to the Obama camp's claim that they won more delegates in Nevada:

Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Caucuses today by winning a majority of the delegates at stake.

The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19.

Meanwhile, the Nevada Dem party releases this statement:

“Today, two out of three Nevadans who caucused chose a Democrat instead of a Republican for president. That is an overwhelming majority vote for a new direction. Just like in Iowa, what was awarded today were delegates to the county convention. No national convention delegates were awarded. The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

Late Update: The Nevada Dem party releases this clarification:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama top adviser David Plouffe made a surprising claim: He said Barack Obama actually won more federal nominating delegates out of the caucus, despite their six-point loss to Hillary. The Obama camp's final count: Obama 13 delegates, Hillary 12.

That flips around the totals that were reported, which were Hillary 13, and Obama 12.

The Obama camp's argument: The state Democratic Party set up rules for apportioning the federal delegates across the Congressional districts, and then further sub-divided the Second District into three portions. Hillary's support was concentrated in Clark County (the Las Vegas area), while Obama ran ahead of her in the rest of the state — meaning that he was able to prevail among the delegates given over to the rural areas.

Of course, it's unclear whether any of this matters, absent an official declaration from the Nevada Dem party, which we haven't seen yet. And it's also unclear whether a delegate victory, rather than the electoral outcome, will be seen as a win -- though in fairness, when Hillary was losing, Hillary advisers described this battle as a delegate fight.

On the conference call (which was reported by TPM's Eric Kleefeld), Obama adviser Plouffe was asked whether this means that Obama won the Nevada Caucus. Plouffe's response: "Well, honestly, we'll leave that to you guys."

Late Update: The Associated Press says that Obama officially won the delegate count:

She captured the popular vote, but Obama edged her out for national convention delegates at stake, taking 13 to her 12.