NV-03

A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Dems Throw Over $12 Million Into House Races
The DCCC launched a massive financial assault on the Republicans yesterday, with over $12.6 million in spending for over 50 races in the latest set of FEC filings. The single biggest expenditure was $643,000 against Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV). Six-figure amounts were spent on an astonishing 40 House races. By contrast, the NRCC only spent $1.07 million in the latest filings.

Poll: Murtha Now In Tight Race
A new Susquehanna poll shows that Jack Murtha could be in trouble in his usually-safe seat in the wake of his public comments about his constituents being racist rednecks. The numbers: Murtha 46%, retired Army Lt. Col. Bill Russell (R) 41%, with a ±4.9% margin of error.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Democrats are aggressively exploiting the political opportunities presented by the economic crisis -- while the Republicans are running in the other direction as they watch their numbers fall.

Mitch McConnell Turning Down Debates
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), who has found himself in some uncomfortably close polls against Dem businessman Bruce Lunsford, is refusing to debate. The campaign has rejected an invitation from the League of Women Voters and has not responded to one from Kentucky Educational Television, saying only that they'll hold a debate with the Paducah Sun in late October.

Dems Launch Ads About Social Security Privatization And Wall St.
The DCCC has a whole new wave of ads running in Pennsylvania and Indiana about Social Security -- and specifically, what would be happening if Social SEcurity were tied to the stock market in the middle of the banking crisis. Here's one of them in Pennsylvania:

"Barletta wanted to follow Bush right into this mess," the announcer says. "And with the markets in free-fall, where would our safety net be now?"

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Election Central Morning Roundup

Obama Running Negative Ad In Indiana
Barack Obama is running a targeted negative ad against John McCain in Indiana, reusing footage of McCain saying during the primaries that the economy was just fine. "How can John McCain fix the economy when he doesn't think it's broken?" the ad asks viewers:

McCain In Colorado Today
John McCain is campaigning today in Colorado, a state that has only voted Democratic once in the last 40 years but where most recent polls have put Barack Obama narrowly ahead. McCain has an event in Aspen, scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET.

Labor Groups Filing FEC Complaint Against Wal-Mart
The AFL-CIO, the Change To Win Federation and other labor groups will be filing an FEC complaint against Wal-Mart, one of their biggest corporate nemeses, over reports that the company has been engaging in illegal electioneering. This comes after The Wall St. Journal quoted an anonymous Wal-Mart employee describing a mandatory meeting in which employees were warned of the dire consequences that would follow if the Democrats won the election.

Dems Battling Ticket Scalpers For Obama's Speech
Democrats are working hard to stop an unintended consequence of Barack Obama's big acceptance speech in Denver: Ticket scalpers. Online auctions and Craigslist entries advertising tickets for sale, or from people seeking tickets, have been shut down at the Dems' request -- and furthermore, tickets haven't actually been printed and distributed yet, meaning any offers from people claiming to have one are fraudulent.

Dem Chances Go Up In Nevada House Races
CQ has changed their ratings for the two Republican-held House seats in Nevada, upgrading both of them for the Dems. The Second District held by freshman GOPer Dean Heller has been changed from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican," and the Third District held by third-term GOPer Jon Porter has been changed from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Poll: Dem Ahead In Deep-Red House District
A new poll form Capital Survey Research Center (D), the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association, shows the Democratic nominee substantially ahead in the race for the open GOP-held Second Congressional District. Democratic candidate Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery, leads GOP state Rep. Jay Love by a margin of 47%-37% -- even though this district voted 66%-33% for George W. Bush in 2004.

Dems Expand Playing Field For The House With Nevada Candidate

National Dems have just increased their chances at a major House pick-up this Fall, recruiting former Nevada state Senate minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus to run against incumbent Republican Jon Porter in a key swing district.

It's yet another sign that national Dems are successfully using their advantages in fundraising to find more candidates and expand the playing field for the 2008 elections. Titus only narrowly lost her campaign for governor after starting out way behind, and the ethics scandals that have faced the new Governor Jim Gibbons could inspire some buyer's remorse in her favor.

NV-03: GOP Rep. Porter No Longer Sure Thing?

The race between GOP Rep. Jon Porter and Dem Tessa Hafen, the former aide to Harry Reid, hasn't been seen as a competitive one, even though the district was an evenly-split battleground between George Bush and John Kerry in 2004. Polls in September showed Porter with a sizeable lead, and CQ Politics has rated it as "Republican Favored." But new evidence is emerging that the race isn't necessarily a lock for Porter. A poll recently released by Dem firm Momentum Analysis shows Hafen within four points of Porter, 41%,-37%. What's more, the NRCC dropped nearly 10 grand on a poll in the district this week -- something the GOP wouldn't do unless there was at least some concern over Porter's seat. So count this race on our list of ones to watch.

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