NYT: Muslims Disaffected By Obama Campaign Tactics
The New York Times reports this morning that many Muslim voters are feeling disaffected by the Obama campaign's efforts to distance the candidate from the perception that is aligned with Muslim interests or is himself a Muslim. "A lot of us are waiting for him to say that there's nothing wrong with being a Muslim, by the way," said Rep. Keith Ellison of Minnesota, the first Muslim elected to Congress and a very early endorser of Obama.

Both Candidates Go West To Talk About The Environment
Barack Obama will be in Las Vegas today for a campaign event discussing energy policy and green jobs, an effort to appeal to voters in this swing state by emphasizing environmental issues. John McCain will be in Santa Barbara to discuss environmental issues -- an interesting choice of venue, as the Los Angeles Times points out, given that this city is where candidates usually go to talk about how they oppose offshore drilling.

Clinton Campaign To Supporters: We Still Need Money
Hillary Clinton's defunct campaign yesterday sent out an e-mail to supporters, asking for money to help with the candidate's $20 million debt. "By helping us pay off our campaign debt, you're not just helping Hillary elect a Democratic president and grow our majority in Congress," the e-mail said. "You're making it possible for her to work as hard as she can on the issues we care about."

Dobson: Obama Distorting The Bible
James Dobson is clearly worried about Barack Obama's efforts to reach out to religious voters -- he's dedicated a section of today's pre-taped radio show to bashing Obama's arguments against directly applying biblical laws to public policy. "I think he's deliberately distorting the traditional understanding of the Bible to fit his own worldview, his own confused theology," said Dobson.

Poll: GOP Senate Nominee Gets Anti-Bounce After Primary Victory
A new Rasmussen poll of New Mexico suggests that GOP nominee Steve Pearce's political stock has in fact gone down in the wake of his narrow primary victory. Pearce trails Democratic nominee Tom Udall 58%-30% for this open Republican-held seat -- worse than his showing before the primary, when he was behind 53%-37%.

McCain Campaign To Nevada Gov: Thanks, But No Thanks
This is fun. The McCain campaign has signaled that its not terribly enamored of scandal-plagued Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons, passing over him for the title of state campaign chair. This honorary job almost always goes to a party's governor, but will instead go to the lieutenant governor in this case.

Wow, this one really spells trouble for the GOP this fall -- the guy in charge of the party's Senate races just basically wrote off the Republicans' chances in two of their five open seats.

At yesterday's Christian Science Monitor forum -- the same venue where he upgraded the GOP's goal to a potential three-seat loss -- NRSC chairman John Ensign was asked point-blank if the party was giving up on the open seats they currently hold in Virginia and New Mexico, where the Democratic nominees are way ahead of the Republicans in current polling.

Ensign said bluntly: "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win."

In addition to the presidential race, there are two high-profile Senate primaries on the ballot today.

Democrats are favored to win both races this Fall, so there's not too much at stake here for November. On the other hand, both contests have been useful for entertainment value.

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National Dems are bullish about expanding their Senate majority, given that they're dramatically out-raising the GOP and that they have the Republicans on defense in multiple states.

And here comes the first wave of ads from Dem Senate candidates, a sign that Dems are aggressively shifting into general election mode, even if the presidential race hasn't quite finished yet.

Here's the new ad from Jeanne Shaheen, who is running ahead of incumbent John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race:

More ads after the jump.

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Democrats can be pretty confident for now about picking up a new Senate seat in the Southwest this Fall, with a new SurveyUSA poll of the New Mexico Senate race showing Democratic Congressman Tom Udall beating both Republicans by very wide margins for this open GOP-held seat:

Udall (D) 60%, Pearce (R) 36%
Udall (D) 61%, Wilson (R) 35%

Sample size: 1,827 registered voters.
Margin of error: ±2.3%

In the Republican primary subset, the more conservative Congressman Steve Pearce leads Congresswoman Heather Wilson by a 49%-46% margin, within the ±4.8% margin of error. But with these general election figures, any arguments over electability may well be moot.

Everybody's favorite right-wing pressure group is getting involved in a key Senate race, in which the Democrats stand a very good chance of picking up an open Republican seat.

The Club For Growth is wading into the already nasty GOP Senate primary in New Mexico, launching a $200,000 ad buy against Rep. Heather Wilson for supporting the S-CHIP bill:

Considering the S-CHIP bill has been popular with the public at large, the GOP has a bit of a conundrum here: If they nominate Wilson's more conservative primary opponent, Rep. Steve Pearce, they could have a weaker candidate against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. On the other hand, Wilson first has to make it past the party's activist base that votes more heavily in the primaries.

A new Rasmussen poll of New Mexico, where GOP Senator Pete Domenici is retiring, shows Rep. Tom Udall (D) with significant leads over both potential Republican nominees, Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson:

Udall (D) 54%, Pearce (R) 40%
Udall (D) 56%, Wilson (R) 36%

Among independent voters, Udall leads Pearce by 12 points, and beats Wilson by 19 points — perhaps owing to Wilson's involvement in the U.S. Attorney scandal damaging her credibility.

In a surprise announcement today, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez dropped out of the New Mexico Senate race, essentially clearing the Democratic field for Congressman Tom Udall. Chávez had previously indicated that he would wage a tough primary race, running to the right of Udall, but in his announcement showed that he'd clearly changed his mind. The announcement makes the campaign much easier for Udall, who is the favorite in polling for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

"While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election," Chavez said. "A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly would be, would likely weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy."

A new SurveyUSA poll in New Mexico finds Congressman Tom Udall (D), who just declared his candidacy for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici, to be the clear frontrunner. For the Democratic nomination, Udall leads Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez by a 62%-32% margin, and also does better than Chávez in the general election match-ups.

Udall leads the two Republicans, Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, by margins of about 15% in both cases. If Chávez is the Democratic nominee, he trails Pearce by ten points and Wilson by one point.

On the Republican side, Wilson is the frontrunner for the nomination, leading Pearce by a 56%-37% margin.

New Mexico political columnist Heath Hausaman reports that Congressman Tom Udall (D) has informed party leaders that he will run for the Senate, and will announce his decision within the next two weeks. Udall would be seeking the seat of GOP Senator Pete Domenici, who is retiring.

Udall had previously backed out of the race, then informed party leaders that he was reconsidering it. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, a centrist, is already in the race.

Polling has consistently shown Udall defeating the two Republican candidates, Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, by wide margins.

Late Update: It's official. Udall's chief of staff has confirmed the news with the Associated Press.

Research 2000 has released a new poll, commissioned by the Daily Kos, showing Congressman Tom Udall to be the strongest Democrat for the open Senate seat in New Mexico:

Wilson (R) 45%, Chávez (D) 42%
Wilson (R) 44%, Denish (D) 43%
Udall (D) 55%, Wilson (R) 38%
Pearce (R) 40%, Chávez (D) 39%
Denish (D) 45%, Pearce (R) 39%
Udall (D) 54%, Pearce (R) 37%

Udall had previously passed on the race, but recently informed party leaders that he was giving the race another look.

Lt. Governor Diane Denish has already announced that she is not running, and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez is already threatening a rough primary if Udall gets in.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, who has already declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Senate, is fuming after national and local Dems have attempted to recruit Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) to enter the primary against him.

“This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t,” Chávez told Roll Call. “The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election.”

This comes only days after Chávez praised Udall as a "great congressman" in a conference call with local progressive bloggers, and adding that he would attempt to mimic Udall's voting record in Congress: “If you look issue by issue I doubt you’ll find much difference ... You will find that we will vote together almost all the time.”

A new round of Senate polls from SurveyUSA, commissioned by Roll Call, show the Republicans in serious trouble for the 2008 Senate races.

In Oregon, Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is ahead but under 50% against two Democrats, leading state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 48%-39%, and leading Democratic activist Steve Novick 45%-39%.

In Minnesota, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is statistically tied with both his Democratic opponents, with a one-point 46%-45% lead against Al Franken, and a 44%-44% tie against attorney and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi.

For the open seat in New Mexico, Republican Representatives Steve Pearce and Heath Wilson both trail Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, with Chávez at 48%-43% against Pearce and 48%-44% against Wilson. This is a turnaround from earlier polls that showed Chávez to be a weak Democratic nominee. Dem Congressman Tom Udall, who is also looking at the race, was not polled.

In the open-seat race in Virginia, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner leads former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore 57%-35%, and leads former Senator George Allen — who has not indicated that he would run — by a 52%-42% margin.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen by a 53%-42% margin.

The Republicans' only bright spot is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads Dem Congressman Tom Allen 55%-38%.

Late Update: In another poll result I missed before, Democrats are also ahead in the open-seat race in Colorado, with Dem Congressman Mark Udall leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer 48%-41%.

The news yesterday, that Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) is reconsidering his previous decision not to run for Senate, now appears to be getting even more serious.

New Mexico political columnist Heath Haussamen reports that multiple sources have confirmed that Udall is now actively putting together a campaign structure for a potential Senate run.

If he runs, Udall would be considered the favorite for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) might just end up running for the Senate, after all. The Albuquerque Journal reports that Udall, who previously took himself out of the running for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici, has informed party leaders that he's giving the race another look.

No firm decision has been made that he will enter, but he would easily become the favorite to win the seat in the general election, according to current polling. The current Democratic frontrunner, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, has had a much more lackluster performance against the possible Republican nominees.

Fun fact: Udall's family has a strong political presence out West. His cousin Mark is a Democratic Congressman from Colorado who is running for an open Senate seat, and their Republican cousin Gordon Smith is seeking re-election as a Senator from Oregon. It's thus possible that three cousins could end up winning three simultaneous Senate races, in three different states and from both parties.

A new internal poll in the New Mexico Senate race, conducted for Democratic candidate Martin Chávez's campaign, shows the Albquerque mayor statistically tied with Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson. According to Roll Call, the poll by Democratic firm Lake Research shows Chávez taking 41% to Wilson's 40%.

Among independents, the poll has Chávez leading 48%-30% — meaning the closeness of the race probably comes from Chávez not yet being able to completely nail down core Democratic support.

Another caveat, in addition to it being an internal poll: Numbers have not been released pitting Chávez against another major Republican candidate, Congressman Steve Pearce.

Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM) will run to succeed retiring Sen. Pete Domenici, according to the Albuquerque Journal, and he will make an e-mail announcement to supporters tomorrow announcing his run.

Pearce joins fellow Rep. Heather Wilson and businessman Spiro Vassilopoulos in the Republican primary. He will likely seek to play his strongly conservative credentials against Wilson, who has a more moderate profile.

GOP leaders were trying to get Pearce to commit to re-election, according to recent reports, wanting to avoid having both of their seats open up in this small state.

It turns out that Dick Cheney will be hitting the fundraising circuit in some important races, after all. On Friday, the Santa Fe New Mexican reported that the vice president will be a guest next month at a fundraiser for Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R-NM), who is running to replace retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

Interesting side note: The fundraiser will be in Washington, DC, as opposed to taking place in New Mexico.

Apparently not content to settle with the current candidates in the field — Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez and businessman Don Wiviott — national Democrats including DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer and EMILY's List are hoping to draw New Mexico Lt. Governor Diane Denish into the Senate race, according to Roll Call.

Denish is seen as the Democrats' best option to pick up the open seat, after Rep. Tom Udall and Gov. Bill Richardson both declined to run. Recruiting her would be a major coup for Schumer, as Denish is seen as having the inside track in the race to succeed Richardson in the Governor's office after his term expires in 2010 — but would also have to cancel any ambitions for the governor's office if she's elected to the Senate in 2008.

A second Republican has thrown his hat into the ring to vie for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Pete Domenici: Oil industry investor and political neophyte Spiro Vassilopoulos.

Vassilopoulos joins Rep. Heather Wilson, who has also declared her candidacy in the Republican primary. However, he believes that the toughest opponent to beat will actually be New Mexico's other Republican House member, Steve Pearce, who looks like a much stronger potential nominee than Wilson.

"Pearce is a fellow oil man and someone I consider to be intellectually honest," Vassilopoulos said. "I have great admiration for his abilities."

In short, this primary could get very crowded, and very soon. And if Wilson was hoping for an easy primary — she was long viewed as a political protégée of Domenici — it doesn't look like it's going to happen.

A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico tests a wide range of Democratic and Republican candidates for Senate — those who might announce they're running, those who have already announced they're running, and those who have already announced that they're not running — and here are the results:

Udall (D) 55%, Pearce (R) 37%
Richardson (D) 60%, Pearce (R) 36%
Pearce (R) 56%, Chávez (D) 35%
Pearce (R) 54%, Madrid (D) 38%
Pearce (R) 58%, Wiviott (D) 23%
Udall (D) 56%, Wilson (R) 38%
Richardson (D) 62%, Wilson (R) 35%
Wilson (R) 48%, Chávez (D) 44%
Wilson (R) 46%, Madrid (D) 45%
Wilson (R) 51%, Wiviott (D) 34%

The strongest Democrats in the poll are Bill Richardson and Tom Udall, who have already said they're not running, while the others are all struggling. Bill Richardson is committed to the presidential race, so this poll might cause the DSCC to ask Udall to reconsider. On the other hand, the others could still improve their standings through a vigorous campaign.

Also worth noting is that Congressman Steve Pearce, a very right-wing Republican, does much better than Congresswoman Heather Wilson, who has already announced her candidacy. It could be that Pearce is a familiar name in the state who is viewed somewhat positively, while Wilson may have been damaged by the U.S. Attorney scandal. The poll should probably give some encouragement to Pearce if he's looking for reasons to enter the race.

Also, the poll did not test Democratic Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who has reportedly been looking at the race.

The first high-profile Democrat is set to announce his candidacy for the seat of retiring Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM). Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez will announce tomorrow that he is running for the seat, in a race that will be heavily targeted by the national Democrats.

Chávez also said that he received a personal assurance from Bill Richardson that the governor and presidential candidate will not run for the seat, even if he is forced to drop out of the presidential race after the first primaries.

Chávez is on his third term as mayor. He was first elected in 1993, and left office after one term for an unsuccessful run for governor. In 2001 he returned to the mayor's office, and was re-elected in 2005. He has built up a reputation as a moderate, pro-business Democrat.

On the Republican side, Congresswoman Heather Wilson is already in the race.

Two of the strongest possible Democratic candidates for the open Senate seat in New Mexico are taking their names out of contention.

An advisor to Bill Richardson told CNN, “Gov. Richardson is running for the White House unequivocally, and we are going to be the Democratic nominee." The advisor added that even if Richardson does not win the Dem nomination for president, he will go back to New Mexico and continue to serve as governor.

In addition, the Albuquerque Journal reports that Congressman Tom Udall will not be running, either. "It was not a decision that was made lightly," a source close to Udall told the paper. "He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House."

Other Democrats who might be looking at the race include Lt. Governor Diane Denish, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, former U.S. Attorney John Kelly, and former state attorney general and unsuccessful 2006 Congressional candidate Patricia Madrid.