Fox and MSNBC call New Mexico for Obama.

It's an important piece of the puzzle -- another Bush 2004 state snatched away from McCain, delivering Obama five Electoral Votes from the Republican column -- but it feels almost anti-climatic after the Ohio win.

The demographic changes in the west were always going to be key to an Obama victory, and the polls suggested early on in the race that New Mexico was going to be one battleground where he'd succeed.

Every additional Bush state that's snatched makes the possibility of some bizarre and freakish turnaround that much more remote, and makes a landslide loom as a real possibility.

A new set of state polls show Barack Obama leading in three Bush 2004 states -- one down to the wire, one by a decent margin, and one by a landslide.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that this state is a tight race going into the final days of the campaign, with Barack Obama up by just four points. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a heftier lead of nine points, 52%-43%. Today's poll has the same margin as the new Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up 47%-43%, although with a smaller number of undecideds.

In New Mexico, which narrowly went to Bush in 2004, today's Albuquerque Journal poll has Obama ahead by eight points, 51%-43%, similar to last night's SurveyUSA poll with Obama up 52%-45%. A month ago, the Journal's poll had Obama up 45%-40%.

The new Selzer poll of Iowa gives Obama a massive 17-point lead, 54%-37%, in a state that narrowly went to Bush in 2004, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead in September. Obama has consistently led McCain here, despite McCain still putting some decent money into the state.

Late Update: It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.

Late Late Update: Mason-Dixon also has some more polls showing Obama and McCain splitting seven key Bush states by close margins, which would give Obama the White House if those numbers were to hold up on Election Day.

Late Late Update: On top of this, the new Pew poll is predicting that Obama will have an overall win of 52%-46% in the national popular vote.

Poll: Tight Race In Virginia
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a lead of 47% to John McCain's 44%, with a ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead a week ago. The poll also shows that white voters are disproportionately undecided, which if true could mean a late break in John McCain's direction -- the question is whether this pattern in Virginia politics repeats again, and whether it's enough of a break to overcome Obama's lead.

Bellwether Poll: Obama Ahead By Six In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio, conducted by mail, has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by a 52%-46% margin, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead a month ago. Historically, the leader in the Dispatch's final Ohio poll has consistently carried the state.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 1 p.m. ET rally in Columbus with Michelle Obama, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Cleveland with Michelle and Bruce Springsteen, and a solo rally at 9 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Joe Biden is swinging through Florida, with a 10:45 a.m. ET rally in Tallahassee, a 4 p.m. ET rally in Gainesville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Daytona Beach.

McCain In Pennsylvania, New Hampshire And Florida; Palin In Ohio
John McCain is making a final attempt to win over two Kerry states today, with an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania, a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and a 6:15 p.m. ET town hall-style event in Peterborough, New Hampshire, followed by a rally after midnight in Miami, Florida, his one red state for the day. Sarah Palin is touring through the Bush state of Ohio today, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Canton, a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Marietta, a 5 p.m. ET rally in Columbus, and an 8 p.m. ET rally in Batavia.

Hillary Campaigning For Obama In Virginia
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally at 4:30 p.m. ET in Fairfax, Virginia, on behalf of Barack Obama. Earlier in the day she will also be campaigning in Kentucky for Bruce Lunsford, the Dem candidate against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

Poll: Obama Way Up In New Mexico Early Vote
A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico, which narrowly voted for George W. Bush in 2004, shows Barack Obama with a 58%-39% lead among those who have already voted, with an estimated 60% of the total ballots already cast. If these estimates are all accurate, John McCain would need to win the remaining likely voters by nearly two to one in order to carry the state -- but he's only ahead 54%-41% with this subset, for an overall top-line result of Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error.

Gibbs: We Screen Obama's Calls
Obama adviser and surrogate Robert Gibbs had this to say about Sarah Palin's phone call with a Canadian prank-call comedian saying he was the President of France: "I'm glad we check out our calls before we hand the phone to Barack Obama."

The Obama campaign has released a new Spanish TV ad for Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida, hammering John McCain on the economy -- yet another indication of just how much the financial crisis has re-centered the campaign on issues like jobs, health care and housing, rather than foreign policy or immigration.

The ad goes after John McCain's remarks that the fundamentals of the economy are strong:

There is also a radio version that you can listen to here.

The English translation of the script is available after the jump.

Read more »

McCain Ad: Obama Wants More Taxes And Spending
John McCain has this new attack ad out, set to air nationwide, depicting Obama as a big spender who will raise your taxes:

Missing from the ad, of course, is any mention of the Republican Party's spending record in Washington, or Sarah Palin's recorded of raising both taxes and spending through the roof back in Alaska.

Obama In New Mexico, Biden In Ohio
Barack Obama is campaigning today in the swing state of New Mexico, where recent polling has mostly given him the lead, with a rally in Española. Joe Biden is campaigning in Ohio, where most polling has John McCain ahead, with stops in Canton, Akron and Youngstown.

McCain And Palin In Iowa And Wisconsin Today
John McCain and Sarah Palin are again campaigning together today. First up is a rally this morning in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and this evening they'll be holding another rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Poll: Obama Up In New Mexico
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 52%-44% lead in New Mexico, beyond the ±3.9% margin of error. This state just barely voted for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004.

Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Indiana
A new Selzer poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-44% lead in Indiana, with a ±4% margin of error, a surprising number for a state that hasn't voted Dem since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. Most other recent polls have John McCain ahead here, but who knows, it could be the first sign of movement back towards the Democrats now that McCain's convention bounce is over.

Obama Ad: We Need Social Security, McCain Wants To Privatize It
Barack Obama has this unannounced attack ad running against John McCain in Michigan, tying McCain to George W. Bush, the troubled economy, and Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security:

"The Bush-McCain privatization plan," the announcer says. "Can you really afford more of the same?"

Author of 2002 Pro-McCain Book: He's Lost Me
Another formerly pro-McCain writer has turned on him in light of campaign developments. "McCain's recent conduct of his campaign," writes Elizabeth Drew, author of the 2002 book Citizen McCain, "his willingness to lie repeatedly (including in his acceptance speech) and to play Russian roulette with the vice-presidency, in order to fulfill his long-held ambition - has reinforced my earlier, and growing, sense that John McCain is not a principled man."

A new Rasmussen poll of New Mexico suggests that John McCain's national bounce has done him some good here -- for the first time, Rasmussen puts McCain ahead in this swing state.

The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama had a 48%-44% lead. In 2004, George W. Bush carried this state by a one-point margin.

The poll gives the two candidates very similar favorable/unfavorable ratings. Obama is at 55% favorable and 44% unfavorable, and McCain at 52%-45%, further evidence that this state will be hotly contested all the way to November.

Meanwhile, Dem Congressman Tom Udall has a 51%-44% lead over Republican Congressman Steve Pearce for the open GOP-held Senate seat, narrower than previous margins but still showing a solid advantage for the Dems.

A new round of polls today shows a continued close race in four key battleground states that all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but there is reason for cautious optimism about Barack Obama.

A new University of Akron poll shows Ohio to be tied: Obama 40%, McCain 40%. The internals show just how important Democratic unity is for Obama: Only 45% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in the Ohio primary say they'll vote for Obama, with 29% going for McCain and the rest undecided -- but as this poll totally predates Hillary's big speech at the convention, this could change.

And a new round of CNN polls in three Western states shows Obama generally doing quite well:

• He's up 53%-40% in New Mexico, well outside the ±4% margin of error.

• He's up 49%-44% in Nevada, with a ±4% margin of error -- contrary to other recent polls that have McCain ahead here.

• However, McCain is given a slight edge in the potentially pivotal state of Colorado: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, with a ±4% margin of error. This poll was taken partly during the Dem Convention in Denver, so it's still possible that the convention in its entirety can produce a local bounce.

Late Update: In addition, the CNN poll has Obama up 48%-43% in Pennsylvania.

Here's a new ad running in New Mexico from an outfit called PowerPAC, which, as Ben Smith notes, is pretty much the only third party effort on the Dem side doing paid media in the presidential race:

The ad says that "Barack Obama believes it shouldn't matter" if you "look different" or if your "name is unusual."

Not to be churlish about it, but this ad strikes us as boring and whiny and defensive. It's partly geared towards Hispanic voters in the Southwest -- there's also a Spanish-language version -- but presumably these voters already know that Obama is different and that being different shouldn't matter. It's hard to know what this spot is supposed to accomplish.

Read more »

Now this is something. A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Barack Obama is tied with John McCain in Indiana, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.

The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. For some perspective, George W. Bush won this state by a whopping 60%-39% margin in 2004.

The Obama campaign made news a few days ago by sending a top staffer to this red state, and Indiana has also been included in their first big ad campaign of the general election.

Meanwhile, a separate SurveyUSA poll also puts Obama narrowly ahead in New Mexico by 49%-46%, within the ±4.3% margin of error in a traditional swing state that went for Gore in 2000 and then Bush in 2004.

A new Rasmussen poll lends some weight to Obama's prediction that he can take New Mexico, which narrowly went for Bush last time around. Here are the numbers, which have narrowed a bit compared to last month:

Obama: 47% (50%)

McCain: 39% (41%)

Two key numbers that help explain Obama's lead: More (46%) think Obama has enough experience for the job than think he doesn't (43%). And a solid majority (53%) think the most important goal for the next president in Iraq is to bring home the troops.

Separately, a quick note to readers: We'll be posting here on every swing state poll as they come in.

In some good news for Senate Democrats, New Mexico Republicans last night nominated the more right-wing of their two candidates for Senate, Rep. Steve Pearce, in a race for an open GOP-held seat that is a top pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

With 99% of precincts reporting, Pearce defeated his somewhat more moderate opponent, Rep. Heather Wilson, by a 51%-49% margin. Pearce benefitted from ad campaigns by the Club For Growth, which pitched him as the true conservative in the race, while Wilson was not able to sufficiently leverage her last-minute endorsement from retiring Sen. Pete Domenici. Wilson's reputation was also damaged significantly by her involvement in the U.S. Attorney scandal.

Both Pearce and Wilson have trailed Democratic nominee Tom Udall by wide margins in the polls, but many observers thought Wilson might be able to close the gap somewhat, given her history of winning tough races in a Dem-leaning Congressional district.

It's official: Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of Super Tuesday's New Mexico caucus, after a wait of more than a week while provisional ballots were being counted.

State Democratic Party chairman Brian Colón announced at a press conference today that Hillary received 73,105 votes to Obama's 71,396 votes, a margin of victory of 1,709. Given the close result, the final allocation of the state's 26 pledged delegates is likely to be somewhere around an even 13-13 split.

Late Update: The final delegate count is 14 for Hillary, 12 for Obama.

One of the last contests to report tonight is the New Mexico Democratic caucus, which has 26 pledged delegates up for grabs. The first thing to understand is that this really isn't a caucus — it's more like a party-run primary, with voters stopping by polling locations, voting by secret ballot and then taking off. So with the voting all over and done with, let's take a look at ... the exit poll.

The numbers show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama splitting women at 47% each, with Obama beating Hillary among men 53%-39%. Crunching the numbers, this seems to point to a six-point win by Obama. We'll find out later if this holds out in the actual results. But as it is, Obama might just have another state to put on his list of wins for the night.

Late Update: After lagging in the early returns, Obama has now taken a lead of less than 1%, with 38% reporting.

Late Late Update: It looks like this one will be a lot closer than the exits indicated. With 98% reporting, Hillary leads by 117 votes out of over 131,000 between the two of them.

A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico shows Hillary Clinton to be a more stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama in this swing state:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 39%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%
Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%
Obama (D) 49%, Romney (R) 41%
Obama (D) 50%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 40%

New Mexico and Iowa were the only two states to switch from Al Gore in 2000 over to President Bush in 2004. Interestingly enough, another SurveyUSA poll has shown Obama to be the stronger Democrat in Iowa.

A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico has Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead in some potentially close match-ups in New Mexico, which voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 but then supported George W. Bush in 2004:

Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 47%
Clinton (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 43%
Clinton (D) 51%, Paul (R) 34%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 45%

The Gore vs. Giuliani number would seem to indicate that Democrats have an edge here in general, but it remains a small one.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows the Democrats to be in good shape to carry New Mexico in 2008:

Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 53%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 54%, Romney (R) 39%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 46%
Obama (D) 52%, Thompson (R) 41%
Obama (D) 55%, Romney (R) 36%
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Edwards (D) 52%, Thompson (R) 37%
Edwards (D) 54%, Romney (R) 34%

New Mexico voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000, and then switched over to narrowly supporting President Bush in 2004.

Interesting side note: It doesn't look like SurveyUSA even tested Bill Richardson as the Democratic nominee — even though he's the state's current governor.