NJ-SEN

A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's this morning's rundown on the Congressional race: Economic insecurities are taking a greater and greater role in the Congressional races, with candidates giving their responses to corporate malpractice -- or being accused of it themselves.

DCCC Shelling Out Big Money
The DCCC dropped a cool $1.75 million on ads in 15 House races yesterday, flexing their cash advantage over the Republicans. One expenditure seriously stands out: Nearly half a million dollars to defend freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), who faces a very tough rematch against former Congressman Jeb Bradley.

Gordon Smith Facing More Pressure On Hiring Illegal Immigrants
The Willamette Week has intensified its reporting on the hiring of illegal immigrants by the family business of Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), which Smith has called a "hatchet-job." Now the paper has upped the ante, with on-the-record testimonials from illegal immigrants who have themselves worked at the Smith Frozen Foods plant.

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Polls: Dems Running Strong In Multiple Senate Races

A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:

In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.

In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.

In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.

In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.

The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.

Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.


Poll: Dem Senator Thought Vulnerable Might Be Safe After All

There are only two Dem Senate seats that have been seen to be at all vulnerable -- Louisiana and New Jersey -- and now a new poll finds that New Jersey may be on its way to being safe.

The new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey shows incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP nominee Dick Zimmer 47%-38%, much better for Lautenberg than a Rasmussen survey from two days ago that had the race as a statistical tie.

If Lautenberg is in fact in good shape politically, then the Senate Dems can be confident of going into this Fall with hardly any weak spots.

Poll: Dem Sen. Lautenberg In Tight Race In New Jersey

In a year where they're expected to pick up a bunch of Senate seats, Democrats might just have a tough seat to defend in a blue state, a new Rasmussen poll in New Jersey finds.

The poll has incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who just won his Democratic primary against challenger Rob Andrews, in a statistical tie with GOP nominee Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman. Lautenberg gets 45% to Zimmer's 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.

On the other hand, New Jersey has a long tradition of close poll numbers between two candidates, with voters disliking both choices but ultimately breaking for the Dem. That pattern held true in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the 2006 Senate race, with Democrats winning both by decent margins.

That said, this one might be worth keeping an eye on.

Is Rob Andrews Actually Leaving The House After Failed Senate Bid?

Rep. Rob Andrews (D-NJ) seemingly gave up a safe House seat to make his failed primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Or did he actually give it up, and do the inner workings of New Jersey machine politics give him a potential way back if he wants it?

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Lautenberg Fends Off Primary Challenge In New Jersey Senate Race

Senate Democrats won't have to worry about an open seat in a very expensive state this Fall, with Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) turning back a vigorous primary challenge from Congressman Rob Andrews last night, winning by a 59%-35% margin.

For his part, Andrews ruled out any return to the House. His wife had filed for the seat and secured establishment support -- but openly said she could step down and allow party leaders to pick someone else, leading to accusations that he would seek to fall back on the nomination for his old seat should he lose the Senate primary.

Watch Out For Tonight's Senate Primaries, Too

In addition to the presidential race, there are two high-profile Senate primaries on the ballot today.

Democrats are favored to win both races this Fall, so there's not too much at stake here for November. On the other hand, both contests have been useful for entertainment value.

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Attack Ad In Jersey Senate Primary: Lautenberg Made Fun Of A Woman's Age

You really have to watch this ad from Rep. Rob Andrews (D-NJ), the main primary challenger to Dem Senator Frank Lautenberg.

Andrews is running way behind in the polls, and now has an ad that is a very hard-hitting -- and perhaps desperate -- play for women voters. The message: Lautenberg ridiculed a female candidate's age.

The ad says that during Lautenberg's first campaign in 1982, he used "not so veiled language" to say "it's okay for a man to make fun of a woman's age," accusing Lautenberg of sexism in his race against GOP Congresswoman Millicent Fenwick:

Asked to cite a specific example of Lautenberg attacking Fenwick's gender, Andrews campaign manager Michael Murphy told Election Central, "I would not be able to say that he said, 'This person is incompetent to serve because she's a woman.'"

However, Murphy said of Lautenberg's age-based attacks used in that campaign: "It's virtually impossible, in projecting that message, to divorce that message from the fact that Millicent Fenwick was a woman."

Poll: Key Senate Dem Incumbent Is Safe

National Democrats can breathe a bit easier regarding the New Jersey Senate race, with a a new poll showing that they probably won't have to worry about a primary challenge becoming too divisive.

The new poll by Rasmussen finds Lautenberg with 49% in the Democratic primary, way ahead of Rep. Rob Andrews at 19%, and Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello with seven percent.

A lot of hype has been generated in New Jersey about Andrews' challenge against Lautenberg, whose age and often-lackluster ratings made him seem vulnerable. But Lautenberg might not have had much trouble, after all, once a campaign actually got going.

New Jersey Republicans Line Up New Candidate For Senate Race

The ever-entertaining New Jersey Senate race just got a lot less funny today, with the Republicans finding what may well be a serious candidate. Andy Unanue, whose candidacy was ruined by allegations of chronic drunkenness, dropped out of the race and was able to substitute the name of a new candidate in place of his own on the primary ballot: Former Congressman Dick Zimmer.

However, Zimmer will still have his own problems. He previously ran for the Senate in 1996, losing by a 10-point margin, and then failed to regain his House seat in a squeaker of a race in 2000. Since them, he's worked in Washington as a lobbyist — and the eventual Democratic opponent, whether it's incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg or one of his primary challengers, will be sure to use that against him should he win the GOP nomination.

New Jersey Dem Establishment Struggles To Squash Upstart Challenge To Lautenberg

Here at Election Central we've been keeping an eye on the increasingly raucous Jersey Senate race — and now the brawl is getting messier than ever, with most of the Democratic establishment trying to force heretic Congressman Rob Andrews to drop his long-shot effort to unseat incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg.

The other six Dems in the state's delegation have put out a statement lambasting Andrews for even running, calling him a "regional candidate" and calling his campaign an "end run" around the party's nominating process, with no chance of success.

Of course, Andrews has a healthy level of support down in South Jersey, with party boss George Norcross ready to line up a lot of money for him — so don't exactly expect him to drop out any time soon.

Republicans Lose Best Possible Candidate In New Jersey Senate Race

New Jersey Republicans really can't catch a break. Just as it had seemed like biotech executive John Crowley was on the verge of launching a campaign for the U.S. Senate — thus rescuing the state GOP from a truly odd bunch of candidates — Crowley has instead decided that he's not running.

The state Democratic machinery may be on the verge of tearing itself apart, with a potentially competitive primary race pitting 84-year old incumbent Frank Lautenberg against South Jersey Congressman Rob Andrews. But without a significant Republican in the race, this seat will stay in the safe Dem category no matter how the primary turns out.

New Jersey Senate Primary Could Be A Real Race

When Congressman Rob Andrews (D-NJ) announced two days ago that he'd be challenging incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the Democratic primary, a lot of readers from outside the state were probably ready to dismiss it as a non-starter — Lautenberg is a four-term Senator, after all, and it's only two months from now to the primary.

But the reality is, this could be a very serious challenge. Lautenberg is 84 years old, with many polls showing that voters think he's too old for the job. On top of that, New Jersey politicians are almost never truly popular, and Lautenberg isn't the exception.

The ambitious pol Andrews has a few things going for him: Relative youth, a lack of any statewide unpopularity, and the support of the South Jersey party organization — whose power is growing and whose zeal to defeat the North Jersey establishment, which has ruled the state since forever, is as feverish as it's ever been.

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Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) Gets Primary Challenge From Rep. Rob Andrews

The Democrats now have a divisive Senate primary on their hands in New Jersey, with Congressman Rob Andrews announcing that he is challenging incumbent Frank Lautenberg in the June primary.

Andrews' big issue will probably be Lautenberg's age — the Senator is 84 years old, and polls have shown opposition to him getting another term because of it. On the other hand, expect Lautenberg to hit Andrews for his 2002 vote to authorize the Iraq War, and to have the whole might of the New Jersey Democratic machinery at his back.

By the way, this primary could be the biggest challenge Lautenberg faces this year — as we laid out last week, the Republican candidates aren't exactly an impressive bunch. So whoever wins, this might still be a safe Democratic seat anyway.

Send In The Clowns: Jersey GOP Candidates Make For Good Comedy

Meet the GOP candidates for Senate in New Jersey. They're quite a colorful bunch.

One of the most frustrating Senate races for the Republicans this cycle has to be New Jersey, where the GOP has been struggling to recruit a candidate who isn't unhealthy, a boozer, a crank, or an out-and-out loon.

A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) only a 39% approval rating to 31% disapproval, with only 32% saying he deserves to be re-elected, and a solid 58% saying he is too old. On paper, he would seem to be vulnerable.

The problem is, New Jersey is very much a Democratic state, and the state GOP is a mess. With unpopular Democrats routinely getting re-elected over lackluster or even decent Republican nominees, the Republicans need a very good candidate to win.

And they don't appear to have one — far from it, in fact. Meet the GOP candidates, after the jump.

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Sen. Lautenberg Draws A Challenger

Republican businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook announced today that she will challenge long-time New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), ending a four-month exploratory phase of her campaign.

Lautenberg's advanced age (he will be 84 years old on Election Day) and weak performances in recent polls have the GOP hoping for an outside shot at an upset, but Republican hopes have been stymied in the Garden State during the past several statewide elections.

Poll: Lautenberg Narrowly Leads Generic Republican — Viewed As Being Too Old

A new Quinnipiac poll has some mixed news for Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ). On the one hand he has a 42% approval rating and 34% disapproval rating — actually quite good in a state known for disliking its politicians.

On the other hand, only 36% say he should be re-elected, with 46% saying he should not be re-elected, a number dangerously close to 50%. In a match-up with a hypothetical Republican candidate, Lautenberg has a lead of 39%-36%.

Quinnipiac also asked, "At age 83, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?" This number is not too encouraging: 54% believe he is too old, compared to 40% who say he is not. Lautenberg could still turn that number around, though, if he is able to prove to the voters that is physically and mentally in good shape during next year's campaign.

NJ-SEN: Ferguson Takes Pass On Challenging Lautenberg In 2008

Dem Senator Frank Lautenberg will be 84 when he runs for reelection in 2008, but one potential GOP challenger has ruled out a run against him: 36-year old Rep. Mike Ferguson. PoliticsNJ reports that Ferguson, who was seen as capable of mounting a formidable challenge to the Dem Senator, has decided to take a pass on the contest for unspecified reasons. Ferguson was narrowly re-elected to a fourth term this year, representing a suburban area with a slight Republican lean. The Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Jersey since 1972, but might be working hard to find a good candidate against Lautenberg in the hopes that his age will leave him vulnerable.

Tom Kean Jr. Mulling Second Senate Run In '08

Failed GOP Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr., is mulling a second Senate run in 2008 against Dem Frank Lautenberg, according to The Hill. "He is not closing the door on that option," a Kean spokesman says. Kean lost to Dem Robert Menendez by eight points last Tuesday -- a fact that will no doubt be thrown at him by his '08 GOP Primary opponents should he actually decide to give it another try.

NJ-SEN: Menendez Wins, CNN Says

CNN calls it: Dem Senator Robert Menendez defeats GOP challenger Tom Kean, Jr.

NJ-SEN: More Voting Machine Troubles

Reader GA writes:

I live in Montclair NJ, heavy Democratic territory. Went to vote at 10:30 am; the two electronic voting machines for my district (Ward 3, District 5) and the neighboring District which votes in the same location (Ward 3, District 3) were both broken. [Poll workers said] both had been operational at the open but broke when people tried to put in write-in candidates. . . . I was handed an emergency ballot and had to fill it out in the open room. Not enough pens to go around and it does not look like there are enough emergencey ballots on hand for the rest of the day.

BlueJersey.com reports voting machine troubles in Montclair, as well as in North Plainfield, Bloomfield and elsewhere.

NJ-SEN: New Poll Shows Menendez And Kean Deadlocked

After a brief period where it looked as if Dem Robert Menendez had begun opening up a lead over GOPer Tom Kean, Jr., the New Jersey Senate race is again deadlocked, according to a new poll just out from the New York Times. The poll shows the two candidates in a statistical tie, with 40% of likely voters for Menendez and 39% for Kean. Key footnote: "Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said they could change their minds before the Nov. 7 election," the Times says, adding that together both parties plan to pump a total of $7.5 million into the race in the final stretch.

NJ-SEN: Ad Targeting Menendez Uses Anti-Italian Slur

Given that Italian-American voters make up the Catholic swing vote in New Jersey, it's a bit surprising to see the crude anti-Italian-American caricature in this new ad being run against Dem Robert Menendez by the the Free Enterprise Fund Committee, a 527 organization founded by Club for Growth-founder Stephen Moore. The ad features a mobbed-up character talking about "our boy down in Washington, Bob Menendez" while the words "The Politicos" (get it? Sopranos) flash on the screen. The character, referring to the Feds' probe into Menendez's rental of offices to a Federally-funded group, continues: "Bada-bing, we're in it — but deep!" View it here.

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