The first results are in for the 2008 general election, with the small village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire again performing its tradition of having everyone turn out to vote at midnight and then immediately reporting the results.
And the count is a real shocker, as just read on CNN: Obama 15 votes, McCain six votes -- in a place that has only voted Democratic once in the 50 years they've been doing this tradition.
The results here aren't really predictive of anything, either for New Hampshire or the country -- Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, plus John Kerry in 2004 all carried the state even as they lost here, and Obama carried it in the Democratic primary that he went on to lose. But the news that Obama picked up a well-known rural Republican stronghold is certainly not discouraging.
Late Update: We initially wrote that Dixville Notch has never voted Dem before -- but in fact they voted for Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Take that as another cautionary tale.
McCain: I'm Not Bush
Appearing this morning on Meet The Press, John McCain reiterated his "I am not George Bush" line. "So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course," McCain explained "But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others."
Obama Seizes On "Common Philosophy" Remark
At a rally today in Denver, Barack Obama will go after John McCain's concession on Meet The Press that he and President Bush share a common philosophy. "But then, just this morning, Senator McCain said that he and President Bush - 'share a common philosophy,'" Obama will say, according to prepared remarks. "That's right, Colorado. I guess that was John McCain finally giving us a little straight talk, and owning up to the fact that he and George Bush actually have a whole lot in common."
Obama In Colorado
Barack Obama is campaigning in Colorado today, with a 1:30 p.m. ET rally in Denver, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Forth Collins. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail today.
McCain In Iowa And Ohio, Palin In Florida And North Carolina
John McCain is holding a 2 p.m. ET rally in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Lancaster Ohio. Sarah Palin has a 12 p.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Kissimmee, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Asheville, North Carolina.
Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Iowa
Two new polls of Iowa raise doubts as to whether McCain appearance today in the state is really the best use of his time. From Research 2000: Obama 54%, McCain 39%. And from Mason-Dixon: Obama 51%, McCain 40%.
Poll: Obama Also Way Ahead In New Hampshire
A new University of New Hampshire poll gives Barack Obama a 54%-39% lead in New Hampshire, and Democrats sweeping all the down-ticket races there this year. A caveat: Obama has been infamously burned by New Hampshire polls before, so the state's Dems should be anything but complacent.
Obama: McCain Attacking Bush "Like Robin Getting Mad At Batman"
At a rally yesterday in New Mexico, Barack Obama ridiculed John McCain's attempts to distance himself from George W. Bush's economic policies. "It's like Robin getting mad at Batman," Obama said.
Palin: Obama Will Abolish All Private Property
Campaigning yesterday in Iowa, Sarah Palin upped the ante on the GOP's efforts to paint Barack Obama as some kind of a Marxist because he wants the tax structure to be slightly more progressive, warning that all property would be collectively owned under Obama:
"See, under a big government, more tax agenda, what you thought was yours would really start belonging to somebody else, to everybody else," Palin said. "If you thought your income, your property, your inventory, your investments were, were yours, they would really collectively belong to everybody." Note: Palin is the governor of a state that practices the collective ownership of profitable natural resources.
Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.
Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:
"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."
McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:
"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."
Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.
Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.
Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.
Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.
Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.
A new set of polls out today shows Barack Obama with enormous leads in two of the most contested swing states this election:
• In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama up 53%-43%, up from a 51%-45% Obama lead two weeks ago. The key internal number: McCain now has only a 52%-43% lead among white voters, while Obama is up 86%-13% among blacks. Also, the new Suffolk poll puts Obama ahead 51%-39%.
• In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA gives Obama a 53%-40% lead. This is consistent with other recent polls from Rasmussen and St. Anselm, showing this former Republican stronghold slipping away for McCain.
Both of these states have been Republican areas until just recently -- Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 LBJ landslide, and New Hampshire only voted narrowly for Kerry in 2004 after having voted for Bush in 2000.
New Obama Ad Hits McCain And Palin On Health Care Taxes
The Obama campaign is right out of the gate with this post-debate TV ad, set to air on national cable, featuring video of Joe Biden taking apart Sarah Palin on health care:
"Taxing your health care benefit," Biden says. "I call that the "Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere."
Obama In Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Pennsylvania, with an event at 11 a.m. in Abington. Joe Biden does not have any public events.
McCain In Colorado
John McCain is holding a town-hall style event today in Pueblo, Colorado, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin does not have any public events.
WaPo: McCain's Senate Chief Of Staff Is Former Freddie Lobbyist
The Washington Post reports this morning that John McCain's current Senate chief of staff, Mark Buse, was hired by Freddie Mac to lobby McCain back in 2003 and 2004 on the issue of executive pay. Freddie hired Buse specifically because of his closeness to McCain.
Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Lead In Minnesota
A new SurveyUSA poll is giving John McCain a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted Republican since the 1972 Nixon landslide. The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±3.7% margin of error.
Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In New Hampshire
A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a 53%-43% lead in this swing state, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004. Just a week ago, Rasmsussen gave McCain a 49%-47% lead.
Palin Got Troop Levels Wrong
On top the McClellan/McKiernan gaffe, here's another mistake that Sarah Palin made last night: Getting the number of troops in Iraq wrong. Palin claimed forces are now down to pre-surge levels, FactCheck.org notes, but in reality there are still about 14,000 more troops than were there in January 2007.
Tonight: The Debate
The first presidential debate is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET tonight at the University of Mississippi. Barack Obama will be showing up, while John McCain has not committed to coming yet. McCain will probably show up in the end, but at this point the possibility can't be entirely discounted that Obama will have the stage all to himself at Ole Miss.
Candidates In DC Today, Working On Bailout
The presidential nominees are in Washington today, as negotiations drag on for the Wall St. bailout, before Barack Obama and perhaps John McCain leave for a debate in Mississippi. It is not clear if the impasses that derailed a deal last night will be resolved today in such a manner as to reach the main goal: That some kind of deal be passed with the support of a majority of both parties.
Biden Blames GOP -- And Possibly McCain -- For Bailout Failure
Joe Biden told donors at a fundraiser last night that the Republicans were to blame for the failure of the bailout talks, singling out JOhn McCain. "We were going to all put this behind us and then I'm told that things changed," Biden said, "that John McCain landed about four o'clock and all of a sudden -- I don't know what the reason -- but some of the House Republicans decided that this, this wasn't going to go forward, at least not right away."
Poll: McCain's Lead Slips In Florida
The new Rasmussen poll of Florida gives John McCain a bare lead of 48%-47%, within the ±4% margin of error. The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, had put him ahead by a 51%-46% margin.
Polls: Tight Race In Missouri, McCain Narrowly Ahead
A new Research 2000 poll gives John McCain a 47%-46% lead in the perennial swing state of Missouri, down slightly from a 49%-45% lead from a poll conducted last week. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA gives McCain a 48%-46% lead, compared to a 49%-44% lead from two months ago.
Polls: Obama Taking Narrow Lead In New Hampshire
A new Research 2000 poll gives Barack Obama a 48%-44% lead in New Hampshire, within the ±4% margin of error. And a Strategic Vision (R) poll gives Obama a bare one-point edge of 46%-45%. John McCain had previously been leading in the preponderance of polls here.
A new set of CNN battleground state polls, all conducted in the days after the Republican convention wrapped up, suggests the presidential race remains close in four key states despite John McCain's national bounce:
• In Michigan, which voted for John Kerry by three points in 2004, Barack Obama is ahead 51%-45%.
• In Missouri, which George W. Bush carried by seven points in 2004, John McCain currently has a 50%-45% lead.
• In New Hampshire, which went to Kerry by a very narrow one-point margin, Obama is up 51%-45%.
• In Virginia, which Bush carried by eight points but has also become much bluer in the last four years, McCain has a lead of 50%-46%.
Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.
The polls for Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire all have a margin of error of ±3%, while the margin in Virginia is ±3.5%
A new set of swing-state polls show Barack Obama narrowly ahead in three key swing states, all of which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004:
• The new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• Meanwhile, a new University of Minnesota poll gives Obama 48% to McCain's 38% -- but the pollster's analysis finds that McCain could carry the state if he picks Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.
All of these states voted for John Kerry in 2004 by margins of only one to three points, so expect them to be closely contested from now through November.
WSJ: Clinton's Convention Role Still Being Negotiated The Wall St. Journalreports that negotiations are still ongoing over a serious issue for the Democratic convention: Will Barack Obama be nominated unanimously, or will Hillary Clinton's name be put to a vote in order to not alienate her supporters? "There's nothing symbolically wrong to putting her name in," said Donna Brazile, but the danger is that an overly-enthusiastic reception would make Obama look like he hadn't unified the party.
Obama In Red State Of Georgia Today
Barack Obama will continue his efforts to win red states with a visit today to Powder Springs, Georgia, where he will hold a town hall on economic issues. Georgia used to be one of the Democratic-leaning states in the South, but has turned sharply Republican over the last six years with a GOP takeover of the governorship, both Senate seats and the state legislature.
McCain Courting Latino Voters Today
John McCain will be speaking today to the League of United Latin American Citizens convention in Washington, a part of his campaign's effort to improve the Republican Party's standing among Latino voters. "When you take the solemn stroll along that wall of black granite on the national Mall, it is hard not to notice the many names such as Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Lopez that so sadly adorn it," McCain will say, according to pre-released excerpts.
NYT: Obama Making Headway With Big-Money Donors, Too The New York Timesreports that Barack Obama's fundraising prowess is expanding beyond his small-donor base now that he's won the nomination. The campaign took in $5 million at a Hollywood fundraiser ten days ago, and last night the candidate was in Atlanta for a fundraiser that carried a minimum $2,300 ticket price.
Union Leader Challenges Obama To McCain's Town Halls The New Hampshire Union Leader, the largest newspaper in this swing state, is joining in on John McCain's town-hall challenge to Barack Obama. "If Sen. Obama would meet the president of Iran without pre-conditions, he can surely find time to meet with Sen. McCain and New Hampshire voters," the Republican-friendly newspaper declares in this morning's editorial.
Former Clinton Spokesman Joins Fox News
Howard Wolfson, who served as Hillary Clinton's top campaign spokesman throughout her roller-coaster of a campaign, has joined Fox News as a contributor/commentator. "It's a huge audience, and it is important to have a strong, progressive voice on the network," Wolfson told the New York Times.
A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a big lead in this swing state, which went narrowly to George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004.
The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%. A month ago, Obama had only a 48%-43% edge.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen gives McCain a small lead in Nevada, which voted for Bush twice: McCain 45%, Obama 42%, within the ± 4.5% margin of error.
New poll numbers just released by USA Today/Gallup find that John McCain has taken a sizable national lead over second-place Mike Huckabee -- a suggestion that his New Hampshire victory, combined with all the media talk about his comeback, have provided him with a big national lift:
Republicans:
McCain: 33%, up from 19% a week ago.
Mike Huckabee: 19%, down from 25%.
Rudy Giuliani: 13%; down from 20%.
Mitt Romney: 11%; up from 9%.
Fred Thompson: 9%; down from 12%.
Rep. Ron Paul: 3%; down from 4%.
Meanwhile, the poll also finds that Hillary has jumped 12 points to regain a national lead comparable to the one she enjoyed in some polls before her Iowa loss:
In order to better understand last night's Democratic primary, you really need to check out this map of the results made by Nicholas Beaudrot:
(Click picture to enlarge.)
The towns that went for Hillary Clinton are in shades of green, while Barack Obama's towns are in shades of purple. Beaudrot's interpretation is that Obama put together a "'Bill Bradley Plus Coalition': wealthy liberals, young voters, people of color, and as many middle class ($50,000-$100,000) voters as you can get."
Of course, Bill Bradley also lost the New Hampshire primary when he ran. And in Obama's case, there weren't any minority voters in sufficient numbers who could have given him that extra push over the top.
Mitt Romney's campaign has put out a new memo/press release in the wake of his second-place loss in New Hampshire, making the case that he's not licked yet and in fact has "a clear path to victory going forward." Notably, the release points out John McCain's weaker performance among core Republicans, arguing that this will catch up to him in later, more exclusively-Republican contests:
Note that Gov. Romney actually beat John McCain among Republicans yesterday (35%-34%) and most of the upcoming primaries and caucuses attract an electorate far more Republican than New Hampshire's. Yesterday's results also show that most independents will choose the Democratic ballot in open primary states.
One particular pollster, New Hampshire-based American Research Group, has perhaps the most interesting explanation for how they got their state's Democratic result wrong. ARG put up a statement up on their site, saying the following:
While we missed the final number that Clinton would make in New Hampshire, our polling was one of only two daily polls that showed Clinton regaining support following her drop in New Hampshire the day after the Iowa Democratic caucus. Clinton was moving up in the final days and hours before the primary, and our polls and the Rasmussen polls were the only daily polls to catch Clinton's rebound.
...
Our polls missed the final Clinton number, but we did not miss the strong swing back among women reacting favorably to Clinton that started after the debate and continued with her comments in Portsmouth. We did not have a polling problem, we just ran out of time.
It is true, actually that ARG showed Hillary closing the gap. Their second-to-last poll had her down by 11 points — while the final one had her down by 9. Keep in mind that these were not composites of samples over three days, as in the case of John Zogby, but were instead conducted over 24-hour periods.
The Tears are now officially an issue in Campaign 2008.
Obama's national campaign co-chair, Jesse Jackson, Jr., just went on MSNBC and appeared to question Hillary's tears, which he called "tears that melted the Granite State," adding that those tears "moved voters."
He also suggested that Hillary was crying about "her appearance."
Take a look...
Here's one key quote:
...there were tears that melted the Granite State. And those are tears that Mrs. Clinton cried on that day, clearly moved voters. She somehow connected with those voters.
But those tears also have to be analyzed. They have to be looked at very, very carefully in light of Katrina, in light of other things that Mrs. Clinton did not cry for, particularly as we head to South Carolina where 45% of African-Americans who participate in the Democratic contest, and they see real hope in Barack Obama.
And:
We saw something very clever in the last week of this campaign coming out of Iowa, going into New Hampshire, we saw a sensitivity factor. Something that Mrs. Clinton has not been able to do with voters that she tried in New Hampshire.
Not in response to voters -- not in response to Katrina, not in response to other issues that have devastated the American people, the war in Iraq, we saw tears in response to her appearance. So her appearance brought her to tears, but not hurricane Katrina.
Asked if he was suggesting that The Tears were faked, Jackson said: "I wouldn't say that."
So it appears that Jackson's point is that Hillary hasn't proven able to show the same level of emotion about the problems facing our country that she did in response to a question about her looks.
This has already gotten a bit of attention, but it's worth a look. The Obama campaign has a new campaign memo out from campaign manager David Plouffe that contains some new fundraising numbers, offers the campaign's take on yesterday's loss and lays out the game plan for the days ahead.
On the campaign's loss, the memo says that the Obama camp succeeded in "taking the once inevitable frontrunner down to the wire in her firewall state."
On fundraising:
In the 4th Quarter of 2007, our campaign raised $23.5 million – over $22.5 million of which is for the primary election. In that quarter, we added 111,000 new donors for a total of 475,000 donors in 2007.
In the first 8 days of 2008, we raised over $8 million and gained 35,000 new donors. Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online.
Full memo, including staffing detail and the Obama camp's view of the coming primaries, after the jump.
Amidst all the hand-wringing by pollsters over how they managed to get New Hampshire so amazingly wrong, John Zogby has put out a press release containing an interesting piece of information: The last one-day sample of his three-day tracking poll showed Hillary closing the gap in a big way -- but the sample was too small to be published on its own:
My polling showed Clinton doing well on the late Sunday night and all day Monday – she was in a 2-point race in that portion of the polling. But since our methods call for a three-day rolling average, we had to legitimately factor the huge Obama numbers on Friday and Saturday – thus his 12 point average lead. Unfortunately, one day or a day–and–a–half does not make a trend and we ran out of time.
Okay, so Zogby's got his story, and he's sticking to it. But what's the excuse for all the other polls that were using one or two-day samples? That list includes American Research Group, Suffolk and Marist — and they got it wrong, too.
Hillary hit the morning shows today to tout her victory, and on NBC's Today Show she said that the turning point came when she hit back emotionally at Obama and Edwards during the Saturday debate:
"It was the first time that the leading candidates actually were asked some very pointed questions about what we stand for, what we’ve done to help other people, what our accomplishments are and what we want to do for the future."
As we noted below, the exit polls show that Hillary gained ground on Obama by doing well among voters who made their decision in the last few days, suggesting a major role for the debate.
But the exit polls also show that Hillary did even better among voters who made their decision yesterday. This suggests that the The Tears allowed her to "win the final news cycle," as the political pros like to put it, and that this was perhaps at least as instrumental as the debate in helping her win, as galling as that is.
So what should we make of John McCain's New Hampshire victory last night? What does it suggest for McCain about the road ahead?
Unquestionably, it left the GOP race wide open, gave a new credibility to McCain's once-moribund candidacy, and put him back on a track that could lead to the nomination. Nonetheless, a close look at the exit polls and the demographics of his victory reveals that a host of hidden dangers lie ahead for him in the upcoming primary and caucus states.
For one thing, McCain's percentages of both the Republican and independent voting blocs were lower than they were in 2000, according to CNN's exit polls. That year he won 38% of the Republican vote and 62% of the independent vote, for a 49% victory overall. This year, it was only 34% of the GOPers and 40% of the indies, for 37% overall.
This is significant for the upcoming races because he'll need GOP base support in upcoming Republican-only primaries in many states — and suggests that his work on immigration reform, among other things, has significantly eroded his support among that demographic. It also suggests that his traction with independent voters wasn't what it was in 2000 — a key constituency for McCain in other states.
Here are a couple of interesting numbers from the exit polls that shed a bit of light on Hillary's surprise victory over Obama last night.
Among voters who made up their minds yesterday, Hillary beat Obama by 39%-36%, suggesting that the last news cycle of the contest might have played a decisive role in shifting votes Hillary's way. Yes, I admit it -- I'm talking mainly about the wall-to-wall coverage of The Tears, which were effectively the last close look at Hillary these voters had before entering the voting booths.
Meanwhile, among voters who made up their minds in the last three days, Hillary also gained ground, coming in only one point behind Obama, 36%-37% -- numbers that are way out of sync with the big lead Obama had in polls over the weekend and yesterday.
Since Hillary had a relatively solid lead of 41%-37% over Obama among voters who had already made up their minds before last weekend, the late-deciding voters enabled her to regain enough ground to win.
Hillary spokesman Howard Wolfson went on MSNBC moments ago and articulated the Hillary camp's spin on her victory: New Hampshire voters saw the real Hillary, and "they liked what they saw."
This is going beyond just her Tears moment. Camp Hillary is saying that in a variety of ways -- at the debate on Saturday, where Hillary hit back emotionally against John Edwards and Barack Obama; and in Hillary's willingness to engage reporters in question and answer sessions over the last few days -- Hillary has revealed herself in new ways to voters, and it's paid off.
The relief in the Hillary campaign is palpable tonight. This might be not only because she won, but because the campaign has solved a larger problem: They've been searching for a way to introduce the real Hillary to voters, and now that she has finally opened up to them -- both by design and by accident -- the voters decided that they liked her.
Hillary may have won tonight, upending the calculus of just about everyone, but John Edwards wants you to know that he's going to be part of the equation no matter what -- in his concession speech tonight, he says there's no way he's not staying in the race through the convention:
