A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.

Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:

• IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.

• IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.

• NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.

• NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.

• NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.

• PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.

• WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.

If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races.

Minnesota GOP Accused Of Playing Up Racial Angle In House Race
Now this is awkward. The Minnesota Dems are circulating this tracker video of a state GOP press conference from Tuesday, in which reporters asked some very tough questions about wether the party was using race as an issue in saying that their House candidate Erik Paulsen better fits the "demographic" of the district than Democrat Ashwin Madia, who is Indian-American:

"I'm just saying from a demographic standpoint, Erik Paulsen fits the district very well," said state party chairman Ron Carey. A spokesperson for the state party declined to speak to Election Central when approached for comment.

Endangered GOP Senator Links Himself To Ted Kennedy In New Ad
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), who has fallen behind in the polls against Democrat Jeff Merkley in this blue state, has this new ad touting his support for gay rights -- and his work with Ted Kennedy on the issue:

Smith has previously run ads tying himself in with Barack Obama and John Kerry -- the latter of whom he'd previously called a socialist back in 2004.

Read more »

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: With GOPers scrambling to staunch the political bleeding amid the meltdown, all signs point to Dems gaining in multiple down-ticket races.

Bachmann Blames Loans To Minorities For Financial Crisis
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is laying the blame for the financial crisis on loans made to minorities, saying in a hearing that the Clinton Administration encouraged the granting of mortgages "on the basis of race and often on little else." Roll Call reports that Bachmann stepped back from her comment just a bit, saying that the policies were "well-intentioned."

Cheney Cancels Campaign Stop For House Candidate, Citing Economic Crisis
Vice President Cheney has canceled a scheduled campaign stop today for Ed Tinsley, the Republican nominee or an open GOP-held House seat in New Mexico, and is instead staying in Washington to assist in negotiations on the financial bailout.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: More polls show that the Democrats have a very good chance of picking up some tough seats, thanks to the economic crisis and anti-incumbent fervor -- but they might also lose a few of their own.

Poll: Dems' New Hampshire House Seats in Danger
A new Univ. of New Hampshire poll shows that former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is leading incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) by a 45%-42% margin, in his comeback attempt after she defeated him two years ago. In the state's other district, freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D) is leading his challenger Jennifer Horn (R) by a 38%-33% margin, with a very high undecided number that should be of serious concern to the incumbent.

Poll: Alaska Senate Race Close, House Race Getting Closer
A new Ivan Moore poll of Alaska shows challenger Mark Begich (D) leading incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) by a 48%-46% margin, compared to 49%-46% three weeks ago. The same poll shows Ethan Berkowitz (D) losing his once 17-point lead over incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) from just three weeks ago to now just a 49%-44% lead.

Read more »

A source close to the McCain campaign tells me that online fundraising is up 500 percent this week over the previous weekly average -- a reflection of the Arizona Senator's lift in the polls and some key endorsements he garnered in recent days, such as that of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

"We had the Union Leader, and we had a kick-ass six day trip," the source says.

In another positive development, the source says there's been a rise in the number of people calling the campaign to volunteer their services. Interestingly, the callers are volunteering on the strength of having seen the mailer that McCain recently dropped in New Hampshire telling of the Christmas inspiration he felt during his days in captivity as a war prisoner in Vietnam:

"It's incredible," says the source. "People who see the mailing are calling in, saying they want to join."

At any rate, such developments are producing something approaching good cheer in the McCain camp.

Late Update: One necessary caveat: As Josh says, "big percentage jumps are a lot easier to put together when you're coming back from near zero."

"If Fergus Cullen has the courage of his convictions, he should go enlist, because they're having trouble meeting their quota. He's young, he's single and he's healthy. If he needs to know where the recruiters are, call me."

— Representative Carol Shea-Porter, D-NH, quoted in The Concord Monitor, responding to state GOP chair Fergus Cullen, who had criticized her vote for the anti-escalation resolution.

Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-NH, who won an upset victory over Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley last year, may have a familiar opponent in 2008: Jeb Bradley. The Portsmouth Herald reports that Bradley told delegates to Saturday's state GOP convention that he had decided to run again just a few days after losing reelection. Bradley said, "I'm going to give it my best effort and hope for a different outcome." Defeated Representatives running again have a spotty record, to say the least, though last year's election saw a successful comeback by Rep. Baron Hill, D-IN.

It looks like it took only took a week for a casualty of 2006 to look ahead to 2008. The Manchester Union Leader reports that GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley, wiped out in the Dem wave that hit New Hampshire especially hard this year, is "in all likelihood" looking at a comeback bid in 2008. If Bradley goes ahead with it, it could provide a test scenario to see if this year's Dem takeover of historically-Republican New Hampshire is just a temporary shift or a full-scale realignment.

New Hampshirans in the first district are reporting a suspiciously high number of calls which sound like polling but tell listeners a supsiciously high number of positive things about GOP incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley and a suspiciously high number of negative things about Dem challenger Jim Craig. Dirty tricks? TPM muckraker's Paul Kiel has all the filthy details.