In Palin's defense, maybe her "Real America" line didn't refer to this specific municipality, but was generally referring to North Carolina as a whole. Oh, wait...
Barack Obama has won North Carolina, according to projections from NBC News, the New York Times and the Associated Press, with Obama leading by 14,000 votes out of over 4.2 million cast.
Not everyone has called the race yet, but assuming Obama's apparent win here holds up it would be a major watershed event.
This would be the first time that North Carolina has voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976. Beyond that, we apparently now have the state that sent Jesse Helms to the Senate for 30 years, and re-elected him to his final term just 12 years ago, voting for an African-American candidate for president.
A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:
• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.
• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.
• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.
All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.
Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.
If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.
• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.
• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.
• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.
• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.
Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.
More good news for Obama on the early voting front: It's been extended in North Carolina, reports the Charlotte Observer.
North Carolina Republicans, predictably, are outraged by the extension -- not because Obama is leading McCain in early voting in the state by 59%-33%, as of two days ago -- but because they say they're worried about the stressed out election officials.
Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.
Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.
McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."
NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit The New York Timesreviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.
RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:
"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"
Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:
Right-Wing Group Jumps In Against Murtha
The right-wingers smell blood in the water in the wake of Jack Murtha's comments calling his constituents racists and rednecks, and now Vets For Freedom is going in with this ad buy of more than $50,000 against Murtha:
This ad avoids the "racist" comments, but instead features Marines saying that Murtha, a veteran of the Vietnam War, smeared and betrayed American troops when he said civilians were killed in cold blood at Haditha: "I expected to be attacked by the insurgents -- not from Congressmen at home."
DCCC Airs New Ad Against Murtha's Opponent
The DCCC is now having to come to Murtha's defense, as well, running this new ad attacking Murtha's opponent William Russell:
The DCCC has not yet disclosed the exact size of the ad buy, but it will be more than the $84,000 that the NRCC has put into advertising on this race.
The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.
It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.
A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:
The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.
Meanwhile, the New York Timesreports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.
Wow, now this takes Republican gloom to a whole new level.
It appears that the McCain campaign and Congressional Republicans are now in strategic agreement: Each says the other is going to lose on Election Day -- and each is citing that to win voter support for themselves.
The McCain campaign has been arguing that he should be elected because divided government is healthier than one-party control. This argument, of course, presumes a Republican loss in the Congressional races -- or at the very least, that the GOP is certain to remain in the minority.
Now the National Republican Senatorial Committee is making a similar argument, in reverse -- on behalf of the GOP's Senate candidates.
Ben Smith reports that the NRSC is running an ad on behalf of Senator Elizabeth Dole that argues against electing Dem challenger Kay Hagan because of the specter of total Democratic control of Washington.
"If Hagan wins," the ad says, "they get a blank check." This, of course, seems to presume an Obama victory.
As one Democrat joked to us: ""Republicans launch new campaign theme: All the rest of us are gonna lose, so elect me."
Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the three largest swing states. Obama is ahead 49%-44% in Florida, 52%-38% in Ohio, and 53%-40% in Pennsylvania. The Ohio result seems like an outlier compared to other recent polls showing a tight race, but the others are not unreasonable.
Obama In Indiana, Then Off To Hawaii; Biden In North Carolina
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 11 a.m. ET this morning in Indianapolis, before leaving the campaign trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Joe Biden is campaigning in North Carolina, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Charlotte, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Winston-Salem, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh.
McCain In Florida; Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is kicking off his officially-themed "Joe The Plumber" rallies, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Osmond Beach, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding a 1 p.m. ET rally in Troy, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Beaver, Pennsylvania.
Mellencamp In New Radio Ad: Obama Is The One For Small-Town Voters
The Obama campaign has a radio ad in Indiana featuring the state's favorite son John Mellencamp, whose famous "I was born in a small town" lyrics puts him in a good position to subtly rebut any objections to Obama's own "small town" gaffe from April:
"But now I'm seeing small towns across America dying," Mellencamp says. "Folks losing their jobs and their homes. Eight years of George Bush have really hurt. And John McCain is just more of the same."
Another Poll Shows Narrow Obama Lead In North Carolina
A new poll from North Carolina-based Marshall Marketing gives Barack Obama a 48%-46% in this newly-minted swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In their previous poll from two weeks ago, McCain had a 48%-46% edge.
Obama At Rally: "This Looks Like The Real Virginia To Me"
At a rally yesterday in Leesburg, Virginia, Barack Obama rebutted the "Real Virginia" comments of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer. "I know some folks may not think so, but this looks like the real Virginia to me," Obama said. "This looks like authentic Virginia and y'all look like a bunch of Virginians."
Schwarzenegger: Palin Will Be Ready By Inauguration Day
In an interview aired yesterday evening on CNN, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger did his best to defend Sarah Palin's qualifications. When asked whether Palin is ready and qualified, the Terminator answered: "By the time that she is sworn in I think she will be ready."
A new round of CNN polls in five red states has some very good news for Barack Obama: He's leading in four out of the five, with a huge lead in Virginia.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was up 51%-47%.
• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, it was a 49%-49% tie.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama was ahead 50%-47%.
• Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. This is basically unchanged from Obama's 53%-43% lead a week ago.
• West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain was only up 50%-46%, so this is the one sliver of good news for him in here.
All five of these states voted twice for George W. Bush, and the four where Obama is ahead add up to 53 electoral votes. John McCain pretty much needs to hold on to all 53 of them, or else it will be exceedingly difficult for him to pull off a victory.
A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.
• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.
• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.
• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.
• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.
All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:
GOP Pulls Out Of Only Possible Senate Pick-Up
The NRSC is pulling out of the Louisiana Senate race, which had been the only real opportunity for the GOP to pick up a Senate seat from the Democrats this year -- they are now playing 100% on defense. A Republican source confirmed to Election Central that their ads will be pulled.
Safe GOP Congressman Uses Jeremiah Wright In Attack Ad
Here's a new attack ad from Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), remidning voters in this deep-red district that his opponent supports Barack Obama -- who in turn has an agenda shaped by Jeremiah Wright:
The odd thing here is that Scalise is considered an absolutely safe bet for re-election, even by the standards of a Democratic wave that many observers are expecting this year. Which means that he either knows something the rest of us don't, and thinks he could be in serious danger -- or he's just a bully.
Palin Lies About Ethics Report's Finding
Sarah Palin falsely told reporters this morning that the Alaska legislature's ethics report on Trooper-Gate clears her of any wrongdoing. "And if you read the report, you'll see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about replacing a cabinet member. You got to read the report, sir," Palin said. In fact, the report says that Palin violated the state's ethics codes in bringing pressure upon cabinet members to take retaliatory actions against her ex-brother-in-law.
Obama Thanks McCain For Calling Him A Decent Man
At a stop in Philadelphia this morning, Barack Obama thanked John McCain for telling his own audiences to be respectful, and that Obama is a decent man. "I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric in his town hall meeting yesterday, and I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other," Obama said.
Obama In Philadelphia
Barack Obama is touring through Philadelphia, today, holding multiple rallies around the city. Obama held an 8:15 a.m. ET rally at Progress Plaza, a 9:30 a.m rally at the Mayfair Diner, an 11:15 a.m. rally at Vernon Park, and he has one more scheduled for at 1:10 p.m. ET, at the intersection of South 52nd Street and Locust Street. Joe Biden does not have any public events.
McCain In Iowa, Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain has a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Davenport, Iowa -- an odd choice for a visit, considering how polling right now has Barack Obama winning Iowa by a more than double-digit margin. Sarah Palin held a rally at 10 a.m. ET this morning in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.
Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In North Carolina
A new North Carolina poll from Marshall Marketing gives John McCain a 48%-46% lead in this new swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. The same poll also shows Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan with a 44%-43% edge over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, within the same margin of error.
Dem Senator To GOPer: Take Down Ad That Features Me
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) has called upon fellow Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) to take down an ad that used old video of Wyden praising Smith, so as to make it appear as if Wyden was endorsing him. In fact, Wyden just recently did a commercial for Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley.
New McCain Ad: Obama Worked With A Terrorist
The McCain campaign has a new TV ad hammering Barack Obama for his past associations with Bill Ayers. Check it out:
"When convenient, he worked with terrorist Bill Ayers. When discovered, he lied," the announcer says. Much like the Web ad from yesterday, the syntax here appears to suggest that the two of them worked together on terrorism, rather than an education foundation that Obama chaired and Ayers served on.
Obama In Ohio, Biden In Missouri
Barack Obama is in Ohio today, with a 9:40 a.m. ET rally in Chillicothe, and an early afternoon rally in Columbus. Joe Biden is in Missouri, with an 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Springfield.
McCain In Wisconsin And Minnesota, Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning today in Wisconsin and Minnesota, two Dem-leaning swing states where he's fallen way behind in the recent polls. McCain has an 11 a.m. ET rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and a 5 p.m. ET rally in Lakeville, Minnesota. Sarah Palin is touring through Ohio and Pennsylvania, which are both slipping away from the GOP ticket, with events in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
Hillary Campaigning For Dem Ticket Today In Arkansas
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally today on behalf of Barack Obama in Little Rock, Arkansas, scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Obama: I Assumed Ayers Was Rehabilitated
In an interview with Michael Smerconish, Barack Obama said that he had begun working Bill Ayers on the Annenberg education project under innocent circumstances. "Ultimately, I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago," Obama said, "but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated."
GOP Pollster: Obama Up In Florida And Ohio
A new pair of polls from Strategic Vision (R) gives Barack Obama the lead in both Florida and Ohio. In Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. In Ohio: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±3% margin of error.
More Polls Put Obama Up In North Carolina
Two new polls are showing Obama ahead in North Carolina, which hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976. From North Carolina-based Civitas (R): Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. From Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±4% margin of error.
CREW Wants Probe Of McCain's Gambling Winnings
The Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington is calling upon the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate John McCain's habit of gambling, and whether he has failed to reports winnings on his financial disclosure forms. "Given Sen. McCain's history of gambling on a regular basis over many years, it is nearly impossible to imagine that he never won over $200, the amount that triggers the reporting requirement," said CREW executive director Melanie Sloan.
McCain Ad: "We All Know The Truth" About Obama's Extreme Liberalism
The new post-debate McCain ad doesn't use any debate footage, but is instead a more general spot going after Obama for being a liberal -- and for having something to hide:
"Mr. Obama, we all know the truth," the announcer says sternly.
New Obama Ad: McCain's Health Plan Giveth -- Then Taketh Away
The Obama campaign has a new ad using footage from the debate, continuing their push against John McCain's health-care plan -- something they've clearly identified as an effective wedge issue in the battle for working-class voters:
"He says that he's going to give you a $5,000 tax credit," Obama says. "What he doesn't tell you is that he's going to tax your employer based health care benefits, for the first time ever. So what one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away."
Barack Obama In Indiana, Michelle In New Hampshire, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Indiana, with a rally set to begin at 12:15 p.m. ET. Michelle Obama is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in Keene, New Hampshire. Joe Biden is back on the campaign trail today, with an 8:30 a.m. ET community event in Tampa, Florida, and a 5:30 p.m. ET community event in Fort Myers, Florida.
GOP Ticket In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be holding a rally today in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Then they're off to Strongsville, Ohio, for another joint rally at 5:15 p.m. ET.
Poll: McCain Narrowly Ahead In North Carolina
The new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina gives John McCain a 49%-46% lead here, within the ±4% margin of error. On the one hand, this is better for McCain than other recent polls showing Barack Obama taking the lead in this Southern state -- but it's not as good as SurveyUSA poll from a month ago, which gave him a 20-point lead.
Polls: Obama Up Ten Points In Wisconsin
Two new polls are giving Barack Obama ten-point leads in Wisconsin, a state that only just barely voted for Al Gore and John Kerry. From SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%. And from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.
New York Times Condemns McCain The New York Times has a new editorial today lambasting what has become of the McCain campaign. "They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record -- into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia," the Times says. "Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison."
Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.
Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:
"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."
McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:
"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."
Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.
Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.
Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.
Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.
Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.
Yet another poll is showing Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.
The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. A week ago, PPP had Obama up 47%-45%, a lead that appears to be increasing. The poll also shows that 60% of voters say the economy is their biggest issue, and this group is going for Obama by a 60%-34% margin.
Three separate pollsters have been giving Obama the lead here: PPP, Rasmussen and Elon University.
Tonight: The Veep Debate
Tonight is the big night for Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, with their debate in St. Louis. The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET. Palin's challenge at this point is simply to overcome the phenomenally low expectations that have been set as a result of her disastrous TV interviews, while Biden will have to both win on points and come across as a friendly alternative.
Poll: Plurality Disapproves Of McCain's Handling Of Economic Crisis
The new CBS/New York Times poll contains a very interesting piece of internal data, suggesting that John McCain's intervention into the bailout negotiations have really been a bust. A 46% plurality disapproves of McCain's handling of the economic crisis, with only 35% approving. By contrast, Obama's more careful approach is approved 44%-32%.
The Obamas In Michigan Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Michigan, with a rally scheduled for 9:30 a.m. in Grand Rapids and another at 2:30 p.m. in East Lansing. Michelle Obama is also campaigning in Michigan, with an 11:30 a.m. rally in Saginaw and a 4:30 p.m. community event in Clinton Township.
McCain In Colorado
John McCain is holding a town hall-style event today in Denver, Colorado, scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET. The event is officially billed as a "women's town hall meeting," so we might see McCain playing up his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate and going after Democrats for criticizing her.
Another Poll Shows Palin Dragging Down McCain
Newly-released data from the ABC/Washington Post poll further illustrates that Sarah Palin has become a liability for John McCain. Only 35% of respondents said Palin has the experience to serve effectively as president, with 60% saying she does not. And 32% say her selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain, compared to only 23% who say it makes them more likely to vote for him.
Poll: Obama Ahead In North Carolina
For the second week in a row, Rasmussen polling shows Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a Southern state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the region's favorite son in 1976. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-47% Obama lead last week.
Biden Receives More Coaching On Debating A Woman The Wall St. Journalreports that Joe Biden has received coaching from Hillary Clinton and other female Dem Senators on how to effectively debate against a female candidate, plus Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who has portrayed Sarah Palin in their debate preparations. Meanwhile, the New York Timessays Biden has received advice from a very close long-time adviser: His sister Valerie, who has run his campaigns since 1972.
A second poll is now saying that Barack Obama is ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter ran as the South's favorite son in 1976.
The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. This comes on top of a Rasmussen poll from last week, which had Obama up 49%-47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.
Obama surge in some of these red states has been happening in large part due to economic anxiety. In the PPP poll, an astonishing 64% of North Carolinians rated the economy as their top issue, and these voters who list the economy as the most important give Obama a 55%-38% advantage.
What makes these numbers even more surprising is that North Carolina is a state with a big military presence. And yet only 10% of respondents said the Iraq War is the biggest issue.
In yet another sign of Barack Obama's surge in the polls, CQ has upgraded their ratings for him in three states that have been cornerstones of the Obama campaign's strategy to expand the electoral map into states where Dems don't usually compete:
• Indiana: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was in the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.
• North Carolina: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was 1976, when Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son.
• Virginia: Previously rated "Leans Republican," is now "No Clear Favorite." Like Indiana, the last time this state voted Dem was in 1964.
From CQ's analysis: "Though the 'bounce' in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama's recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls -- and gains in many state polls -- has revived his party's hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004."
MoveOn Ad Blames McCain's "Friends" For Economic Crisis
In a sign that this campaign is certainly not being put on hold as John McCain would like, MoveOn has this funny new one-minute ad on national cable, casting the blame for the market crisis squarely on John McCain and those folks he'd call "my friends" for the economic crisis -- folks like Phil Gramm, Rick Davis and George W. Bush:
"Main St. giving Wall St. $700 billion and getting nothing in return -- it's outrageous!" the announcer says. "Americans shouldn't have to foot the bill for a mistake that John McCain and his friends made."
Another Poll Gives Obama Huge Lead On The Economy
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll puts in perspective just how precarious the economic situation is for John McCain, with Barack Obama being trusted more on the economy by a 46%-32% margin. Overall, Obama leads 49%-45% in the horse race, with a ±3% margin of error -- meaning it is quite likely that the economy is what is making the difference and putting Obama ahead at this point.
Obama And McCain To Address Clinton Global Initiative
Both Barack Obama and John McCain will be addressing the Clinton Global initiative this morning, Bill Clinton's humanitarian organization, before heading back to Washington for the bipartisan meeting with President Bush to attempt to resolve the financial crisis. McCain is addressing the Initiative in person in New York, while Obama is appearing via satellite from Florida.
Joe Biden Still On The Trail
Joe Biden is in Pennsylvania today, defying the McCain campaign's request that he and Barack Obama stop campaigning. Biden has an event at 10:30 a.m. ET in Greensburg, and another at 2:30 p.m. ET in Wilkes-Barre.
Poll: Obama Edges McCain In North Carolina
In another very bad poll number for John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead in North Carolina, a Republican-leaning Southern state that hasn't voted Dem president since 1976. The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.
Poll: Obama Up By Six In Wisconsin
A new Research 2000 poll in Wisconsin gives Barack Obama a healthy lead of 49%-43% in this swing state, with a ±4% margin of error. Wisconsin voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry, but only by extremely narrow margins, and it is perennially on the GOP's target list.
Huckabee Comes Out Against Bailout
In a display of grassroots GOP opposition to the proposed Wall St. bailout, Mike Huckabee has sent out a scathing e-mail to his supporter list, opposing the bailout and the leaders who are pushing it: "Frankly, I'm disappointed and disgusted with my own Republican party as I watch them attempt to strong-arm a bailout of some of America's biggest corporations by asking the taxpayers to suck up the staggering results of the hubris, greed, and arrogance of those who sought to make a quick buck by throwing the dice."
Right-Wing Pastors To Challenge Tax Laws, Endorse Candidates This Sunday
A coalition of right-wing churches is stepping up its challenge to the ban on tax-exempt churches endorsing political candidates, with pastors in 22 states set to give political sermons this Sunday. "I'm going to talk about the un-biblical stands that Barack Obama takes. Nobody who follows the Bible can vote for him," said Rev. Wiley S. Drake of First Southern Baptist Church in Buena Park, California.
Yet another poll is showing Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.
