NC-08

A Night At The Congressional Races

GOP Takes Out Big Loan For Home Stretch
The RNC has taken out a $5 million loan in the home stretch of the campaign to give to the NRSC and Senate candidates, joining other party committees that have made the same decision in order to maximize gains -- or in this case, minimize losses -- on Election Day. The party's big challenge will be to avoid a nine-seat loss that would give the Dems a filibuster-proof majority, but even a Dem majority that came close to that would be highly damaging for the GOP.

Right-Wing Celebrities (Sort Of) To Minnesota: We Apologize For Franken
The new NRSC ad against Al Franken features a rather novel gimmick in their attempt to paint Franken as an untouchable Hollywood celebrity. In this ad, right-wing Hollywood B-listers apologize to Minnesota for the way Franken has given their profession a bad name:

Was Dennis Miller not available? In all seriousness, Franken has by now overcome some of the problems from his goofy comedy image that dogged his campaign for quite a while. If the GOP is to defeat him now that he's taken a narrow lead in most polls, they'll need to win Minnesotans over on substantive issues. Oh, wait a minute...

Read more »

A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Bachmann Doubles Down On Obama = Anti-America
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has dug in further on her position that Barack Obama is against America. Bachmann appeared today on the Hugh Hewitt radio show, and had this to say: "And so, he [Chris Matthews] was using the word "Anti-American" and I told Chris, what I question are Barack Obama's views. Because Barack Obama's views are against America." And here's what she said on the Mike Gallagher show: "What are Barack Obama's policies? Are they for America, or will they be against traditional American ideals and values?"

House GOP List Sees Double-Digit Losses
U.S. News has obtained the NRCC's internal "Death List" of seats they consider to be probably lost to the Democrats. Ten seats are listed as "likely gone," another nine are tagged as "leaning Democratic," and another 22 are "pure toss-up." It's unknown whether this list was drafted before or after the party cut off support for Michele Bachmann.

Read more »


GOP Rep. Caught Saying "Liberals Hate Real Americans," Fibbing About It

Looks like another Republican has been caught making the "Real America" slur against liberals -- and then trying to fib his way out of it.

At a McCain rally over the weekend in North Carolina, Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC) -- who is in a very tough race against Democrat Larry Kissell -- reportedly told the crowd: "Liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God."

A spokesman for the Hayes campaign categorically denied that Hayes said any such thing. But then this audio of Hayes saying exactly that began to circulate:

Confronted with the audio, Hayes fessed up in a statement: "I genuinely did not recall making the statement and, after reading it, there is no doubt that it came out completely the wrong way. I actually was trying to work to keep the crowd as respectful as possible, so this is definitely not what I intended."

Polls: Dems Could Sweep House Rematches

A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.

Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:

IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.

IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.

NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.

NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.

NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.

PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.

WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.

If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.

NC-08: Dem Kissell Concedes, But Will Challenge Hayes Again

Dem Larry Kissell conceded defeat yesterday to Rep. Robin Hayes after the first phase of a recount showed that the outcome was unlikely to change, the Associated Press reports. Hayes prevailed by only 329 votes, the AP says, adding that the super-tight margin prompted Kissell to announce that "he was starting his 2008 congressional bid immediately."

Updates On Still Officially Undecided Races

Here's a rundown of the latest developments in the yet-to-be officially decided House races:

Fl-13: Problems still abound in this district, where about 15 percent of all Sarasota County voters using touch-screen machines didn't register a choice in the Congressional race. Lawyers for Dem Christine Jennings recently complained that GOPer Vern Buchahan is purposely stalling the audit of the voting machines by failing to offer up his an expert to participate in the process. A manual recount is underway, but the audit by the state is Jennings only real chance to successfully contest the election. Paul Kiel has more on this race over at TPMMuckraker.

LA-02: The runoff election between two Democrats, Rep. William Jeffereson and Karen Carter, will occur on Dec. 9.

NC-08: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes' lead over Dem Larry Kissell narrowed to 400 votes Friday after six counties reported official election results. Four more counties still need to report their official results. The Hayes campaign has petitioned for the majority of provisional ballots to be thrown out.

NM-01: Republicans are again claiming victory for Rep. Heather Wilson as the final tally is expected to be finished Friday afternoon.

OH-02: Local boards of elections will begin counting more than 8,200 provisional ballots on Monday. Democrats are complaining that confusion of voter ID laws will cause many votes to not be counted.

OH-15: The final count will be delayed until Nov. 27 because of new rules for counting provisional ballots. About 19,500 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in the district. GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce currently leads Dem Mary Jo Kilroy by 3,536 votes.

TX-23: The runoff election between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and Dem Ciro Rodriguez has not been officially scheduled yet, but will occur no sooner than Dec. 12.

WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner has officially decided against seeking a recount solidifying GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin's victory.

For a complete look at all the results of the midterms, check out TPM's Election Central Scoreboard here.

The Latest On The Last Up-For-Grabs House Races: No One's Conceding

The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided — and the latest is that no one has conceded their races since late last week. A full rundown of where the outstanding races stand right now after the jump.

Read more »

10 House Races Still Undecided

The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided. Here's where they are now:


Dem-Leaning:

CT-02: Dem challenger Joe Courtney has declared victory with an 167-vote edge, but the miniscule margin automatically triggers a recount. The 167-vote margin includes absentee and military ballots, but not provisional ballots, which need to be verified before being counted. The recount must be completed by midnight next Wednesday.

GA-12: Incumbent Dem John Barrow leads by less than 1,000 votes, with a recount being likely. Barrow has declared victory. If Dems hold this seat, they will have completely shut out the GOP on House, Senate and governorship pick-ups.

Republican-Leaning:

FL-13: The race for Katherine Harris's open seat is potentially going to the courts. Dem Christine Jennings trails by less than 400 votes, with reports of voting-machine problems.

NC-08: Down by 346 votes, Dem Larry Kissell is calling for a recount in his race against GOP Rep. Robin Hayes, who has already declared victory. Provisional ballots won't be counted until Nov. 17, and the official result will not be certified until Nov. 28. In North Carolina, recounts have traditionally favored the candidate who leads going in.

NM-02: GOP Rep. Heather Wilson leads by 1,395 votes, with provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted.

OH-02: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt has declared victory, but Dem Victoria Wulsin is waiting for all provisional ballots to be counted before conceding. Though a Wulsin victory is still a possibility, she seems to be facing a statistical uphill battle.

OH-15: With a lead of 2,835 votes GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has declared victory, but Dem opponent Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede until some 20,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots are tallied, a sum which she feels could tilt the election towards her. Pryce has also announced she will not seek re-election for Chair of the House Republican Conference if she wins.

WA-08: GOP Rep. David Reichert holds a two-point lead over Dem Darcy Burner with three-fifths of the district's ballots now counted. If the final vote count ends with the candidates a half a percentage point or less apart, state law requires a recount.

WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner, trailing Rep. Barbara Cubin by 970 votes, might request a recount after canvassing is completed. However, his current deficit is a few dozen votes larger than the margin that would provide for a state-paid recount. Cubin has declared victory.

Runoff:

TX-23: GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla fell short of 50 percent, and faces a runoff with former Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez

13 House Races Yet To Be Officially Decided

Though the Democrats have conclusively gained control of the House with a pick up of at least 27 seats, 13 races have yet to be officially called by at least two major news sources. Here's why:

Update: CNN and NBC have both called GA-08 for Dem Rep. Jim Marshall and PA-06 for GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach.

Update 2: In PA-08, GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick concedes.

* CT-02: Democrat Joe Courtney leads, but still too close to call, waiting for a recount. A Courtney victory would be another Dem pick up.

* FL-13: GOPer Vern Buchanan declared victory in this race to succeed GOP Rep. Katherine Harris, but Dem Christine Jennings won't concede until a recount, which won't be completed until Nov. 18. Voting problems are suspected to have occurred in the district.

* GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall leads GOPer Mac Collins by 2,048 votes — outside the 1% recount zone — but the race won't be certified until Friday. Called for Marshall.

* GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow declared victory, but it has not been confirmed by GA election officials due to server problems in one county.

* NC-08: GOP Rep. Robin Hayes declared victory, but a recount is expected as he only leads Dem Larry Kissell by 468 votes. A Kissell victory would be a surprise pick up for the Democrats.

* NM-01: No winner declared in this close race where provisional and absentee ballots are still waiting to be counted. A victory by Patricia Madrid would be another pick up for the Dems.

* OH-02: Dem Victoria Wulsin has refused to concede, but GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt leads by slim margin.

* OH-15: Fox News called it for GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce, but Dem Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede, waiting for absentee ballots to be counted.

* PA-06: The Philadelphia Inquirer has called it for GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach, but no other official source has followed suit. Called for Gerlach.

* PA-08: Dem Patrick Murphy declared victory, but GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick refuses to concede. A Murphy victory would be another Dem pick up. Fitzpatrick concedes.

* TX-23: There will be a run-off election between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and Dem Ciro Rodriguez because Bonilla failed to win more than 50% of the vote.

* WA-08: GOP Rep. David Reichert leads Dem Darcy Burner, but more than 10,000 absentee ballots still need to be counted.

* WY-AL: Race between GOP Rep. Barbar Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner is too close to call and a recount is expected. A Trauner victory would be another Dem pick up.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address