Here's this morning's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems' chances of taking a key Senate seat have just gone up considerably, and the party overall is spending heavily in key races.

Polls Show GOP Sen. Dole Losing Re-Election
Two new polls show that Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) is trailing her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan, a rare opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a Southern Senate seat. The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Hagan 46%, Dole 41%, with a ±3% margin of error. And from Rasmussen: Hagan 51%, Dole 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Coleman: Bailout Isn't Really A Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is praising the proposed Wall St. bailout, in which the government would buy $700 billion in mortgage debts with little or no oversight or penalties for the firms that made that loans in the first place. Coleman alleges that the buyout is "not an infusion of cash" to the firms, but is in fact an investment by the government: "The government could make 10 or 20 times what it pays on this, possibly." Needless to say, this is economic nonsense.

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In a sign that an anti-Iraq War position could now even be safe for Republicans, pro-withdrawal Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC) was renominated last night over pro-war county commissioner Joe McLaughlin. With all counties reporting, Jones led by a margin of 59.5%-40.5%.

Of the three major anti-war Republicans in the House, only Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD) was defeated in his primary, while Jones and Ron Paul were able to win renomination to their seats.

And in yet another indication of a lack of enthusiasm among the GOP base, only about 38,000 total votes were cast in this safe GOP district, despite a contested gubernatorial primary that could have theoretically boosted turnout.

Forget the presidential race -- there's a big down-ticket primary going on tonight in North Carolina that could serve as a test case for Republican members of Congress who dare to come out against the Iraq War.

The central problem: Come out against the war in a red district, and you risk a primary challenge.

Take a look at Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), a conservative who now votes with the Democrats on most Iraq matters. Jones has found himself facing an intense primary challenge from county commissioner Joe McLaughlin, whose support for the war could very well land him in Congress in this very red district -- and thus send a serious message to any other incumbent Republicans who might be having doubts about the war.

The campaigns have dueled with wildly different internals polls: McLaughlin released a poll in February showing him down by only 43%-41%, while Jones' campaign put out a poll in March showing him ahead 54%-16%.

With independent voters expected to vote heavily in the contested Democratic presidential primary, McLaughlin is counting on a Republican primary made up of the most conservative voters, and that he can overcome Jones' financial advantage with grassroots spirit. For example, he has won multiple straw polls at local GOP events, and the same pro-war activist base can deliver him a win today.

Another anti-war Republican Congressman, Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland, was defeated for renomination in February over the issue, while Ron Paul easily won renomination in Texas back in March. Tonight's contest could determine which side of the argument gets to claim best two out of three.