In a possible new sign that the electoral map is swinging further to Barack Obama, a new Montana State University poll gives him a narrow lead in Montana, a state that has voted Dem only twice in the last 50 years.

The numbers: Obama 44%, McCain 40%, with a ±5% margin of error. The undecided number here is awfully high, and McCain could very well win this, but it does seem like the state is up for grabs. For example, McCain took a strong lead here in September, but a Research 2000 poll from this past weekend gave him a close lead of 49%-45%.

Poll: Ayers Not A Legitimate Campaign Issue, Palin's Selection Bad For McCain
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll contains two particularly bad numbers for John McCain. First, 60% of likely voters said they do not think Bill Ayers is a legitimate campaign issue, an indication that his campaigns attacks against Barack Obama simply haven't been working. Second, a full majority of likely voters, at 52%, say the selection of Sarah Palin makes them less confident in John McCain's judgement, compared to only 38% who say it makes them more confident.

Obama In Florida Today, Alongside Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama is campaigning in Florida today, with a 12:40 p.m. ET rally in Tampa followed by a 6 p.m. ET rally in Orlando, the latter of which will feature a special guest: Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden does not have any public events today.

McCain In Missouri, Palin In Colorado, Cindy In Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning in Missouri today, with a rally at 11 a.m. ET today in St. Charles, a 2:25 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, and a 5:45 p.m. rally in Belton. Sarah Palin is campaigning in Colorado, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs, a 3:15 p.m. ET rally in Loveland and a 9 p.m. ET rally in Grand Junction. Cindy McCain is swinging through Pennsylvania, a state where the poll data suggests John McCain doesn't have much of a shot at this point, with a 10 a.m. ET rally in Philadelphia and a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Yardley.

Hillary Going On Big Campaign Swing For Obama
Hillary Clinton will be spending the week campaigning across the country for Barack Obama. Today she'll be touring Florida, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Fort Lauderdale, a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in West Palm Beach, and finally the joint rally with Obama at 6 p.m. ET in Orlando.

Palin: Yelling "Kill Him" At Rallies Is Unacceptable -- But "Palling Around With Terrorists" Is Okay
Sarah Palin told David Brody that she has not heard anyone yelling "kill him" or other incitements of violence against Barack Obama at her rallies, from her position on stage. "If I ever were to hear that standing up there at the podium with the mic, I would call 'em out on that, and I would tell these people, no, that's unacceptable," Palin said. However, she did stand by her statements that Barack Obama "pals around with terrorists."

Poll: Close Race In Montana
A new Research 2000 poll shows a close race for Montana's three electoral votes, with 49% for McCain, 45% for Obama, with a ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, McCain had a 52%-39% lead.

Palin: We Shouldn't Experiment With Socialism
Sarah Palin derided Barack Obama's and Joe Biden's tax policies yesterday, telling a rally in New Mexico, "Friends, now is no time to experiment with socialism." Note: Sarah Palin is the governor of a state that practices collective ownership of oil and other natural resources, and equally distributes the state's cut of the revenues to every citizen.

We now have another poll confirming that Montana, a state that can usually be relied on to vote Republican, has improbably become a battleground state as Barack Obama aggressively pursues the Mountain West.

The new poll from Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied at 47% each. A month ago, Obama led by a margin of 49%-44%, in a state that has voted Dem only once in the last 40 years.

The internals do show that McCain has a favorability advantage here, a good sign for his chances. His numbers are 59% favorable to only 40% unfavorable, compared to Obama's 53% favorable and 46% unfavorable. But with both candidates posting overall positive numbers, expect this state to see a very hard-fought race this fall.

Barack Obama is spending today in an unlikely place for a Democratic candidate for president: Montana, a state that has only voted Dem twice in the last 50 years but where a recent poll has put him ahead. It's a further indication of just how the wide the playing field could be this year.

The Associated Press notes that Obama has hired staff and targeted the state with his ad campaign, while John McCain has zero paid staff here and has yet to visit.

Wow. A new Rasmussen poll shows that Barack Obama is ahead in Montana, a state that voted for President Bush by a 59%-39% margin in 2004. It's a further sign of just how much the electoral map may be expanding this year.

The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Back in April, Rasmussen put McCain ahead by an identical 48%-43% margin.

Democrats can be very successful at the state level here -- they have the governorship and both Senate seats -- but the presidential vote has historically been much tougher to crack. The state has voted Democratic only twice in the last 50 years: The Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964, and Bill Clinton narrowly winning its three electoral votes in 1992.

Here's a bit of irony for Hillary Clinton: On the night when she lost the race for the Democratic nomination, she also won the pledged delegate race for the final two states, according to NBC News.

The current split: Hillary wins South Dakota by nine delegates to Obama's six, and in Montana it's eight for Obama, seven for Hillary and one still up in the air. The total: Hillary 16, Obama 14, one unallocated.

In the popular vote race, for what it's worth, Obama actually got a slight boost tonight. Hillary won South Dakota by a margin of just over 10,000 votes, but Obama currently leads in Montana by over 27,000 votes. This owes mainly to the much higher turnout in Montana -- indeed, Obama's vote total there alone is more than the combined total for both candidates in South Dakota.

With the primaries now all over with, Hillary will only lead in the total popular vote by throwing Michigan into the mix and without allocating most of the "Uncommitted" vote there to Obama, or by disregarding the estimated vote totals from four caucus states (Iowa, Nevada, Washington state and Maine) that did not report the numbers directly.

Hillary drops a positive last-minute mailer in Montana, another indication that she's spending at least a bit of money to compete in the final states until the last.

Click on the below images to enlarge...

As best as I can determine, Hillary has launched no negative ads or mailers mentioning Obama since the North Carolina and Indiana results rendered the race more or less a foregone conclusion, though there have been spots drawing an implicit contrast with her rival.

Although all analysts give Hillary Clinton long odds to win the nomination, her major union backers and other big donors clearly haven't given up. The American Leadership Project, the pro-Hillary 527 group, is running a new pair of ads in the upcoming contests of Puerto Rico, where she's favored, and Montana, where Obama is ahead.

Here's the Montana spot, promising that Hillary will help middle-class families and end tax breaks for oil companies:

And here's the Puerto Rico ad, centering around health care:

In the latest instance of Hillary Clinton using an argument of electability as her fallback position on why she should be the nominee, Hillary told a Montana crowd last night that every piece of evidence shows her to be the stronger candidate against John McCain.

"You have to ask yourself, who is the stronger candidate?" Clinton said. "And based on every analysis, of every bit of research and every poll that has been taken and every state that a Democrat has to win, I am the stronger candidate against John McCain in the fall."

In a sign that he isn't taking the remaining contests totally for granted as he shifts into the general eletion race, Barack Obama has this new ad in Montana:

The spot uses footage from a rally held in the state, where a recent poll has put him ahead of Hillary Clinton by a substantial margin.

Barack Obama might end up able to claim a pair of resounding victories in the final primaries of the cycle, if a new Mason-Dixon poll of Montana -- the first major poll of the state's June 3 primary -- is any indication:

Obama 52%
Clinton 35%

Sample Size: 400 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±5%

Obama previously led in a poll for the South Dakota primary, which is also on June 3. Should the two leads both hold up, he will be able to close out the primary season on a high note.

Montana governor Brian Schweitzer is sometimes mentioned as a possible running-mate for Barack Obama. And thus far he's neutral in the presidential race.

But in an interview with ABC News, he was surprisingly critical of the Illinois Senator's policies...

While Schweitzer has not proposed his own universal health care plan in Montana, he believes Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is right to have endorsed a mandate on the national level.

By not requiring individuals to purchase insurance, Schweitzer believes Obama's plan to forbid insurance companies to deny coverage because of pre-existing conditions will lead to healthy people opting out and sick people opting in.

"You've got to get everyone in the system," said Schweitzer.

He is dismayed that Obama cast a vote for President Bush's 2005 energy bill while regularly criticizing the president on the issue.

"Sounds like Senate-speak," said Schweitzer.

Montana votes on June 3rd, the last day of voting. Schweitzer's criticism won't affect his choice of whom to back, since he said he'll endorse whoever wins his state. But it's unusual to hear such blunt talk from a neutral party -- one who has such a high profile in a state that's soon to vote -- about the likely nominee.