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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's our final nightly run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Senator's Campaign Denies Distributing Sample Ballot Implying He's A Dem
Check this out. The campaign of Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who is running in a special election that won't have party affiliation listed on the ballot, is being accused by the Dems of circulating this misleading sample ballot that asks recipients to vote for the Democratic candidates in every race -- except his own:

As Phil Singer remarks: "I can't remember the last time a Mississippi Republican pretended to be a Democrat in a statewide election."

Late Update: In an interview with Election Central, Wicker spokesman Ryan Annison denied any involvement by the campaign. "The honest to goodness truth is this is the first time we've seen it," said Annison. "At five o'clock the night before the election, I can't say that our opponent's press releases are a priority."

Obama Cuts Radio Ad For Wicker's Opponent
Meanwhile, the campaign of Wicker's Democratic opponent Ronnie Musgrove has this radio ad targeted at Democratic voters, featuring Barack Obama reminding listeners who it is that he'd like them to support:

The trouble that these candidates have gone to in order to inform people of their party affiliations -- and perhaps to obfuscate that point -- is as good an argument as any against non-partisan elections.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Candidate's Ad: Democrats Have Blown Up Our (Fiscal) Houses
Wow. Check out this truly amazing new ad from former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-PA), who lost her re-election in an upset in 2006, and is now in a rematch against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. The ad accuses the Democratic Congress of blowing up America's fiscal house:

Unfortunately, it looks like no real explosions were used in the making of this ad. Hart's campaign manager informed Election Central that the ad was most likely done with computers.

Franken's Closing Argument: Coleman Is "Trying To Fool You"
Here's Al Franken's new attack ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), accusing him of running a "fake positive campaign" and lying about his political record and personal scandals:

"Norm Coleman really did take 52 trips paid for by special interests -- remember Alaska?" the announcer says. "Norm Coleman really does live in a million-dollar home owned by his special-interest friend. Norm Coleman really has voted with George Bush almost 90% of the time."

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A Night At The Congressional Races

GOP Takes Out Big Loan For Home Stretch
The RNC has taken out a $5 million loan in the home stretch of the campaign to give to the NRSC and Senate candidates, joining other party committees that have made the same decision in order to maximize gains -- or in this case, minimize losses -- on Election Day. The party's big challenge will be to avoid a nine-seat loss that would give the Dems a filibuster-proof majority, but even a Dem majority that came close to that would be highly damaging for the GOP.

Right-Wing Celebrities (Sort Of) To Minnesota: We Apologize For Franken
The new NRSC ad against Al Franken features a rather novel gimmick in their attempt to paint Franken as an untouchable Hollywood celebrity. In this ad, right-wing Hollywood B-listers apologize to Minnesota for the way Franken has given their profession a bad name:

Was Dennis Miller not available? In all seriousness, Franken has by now overcome some of the problems from his goofy comedy image that dogged his campaign for quite a while. If the GOP is to defeat him now that he's taken a narrow lead in most polls, they'll need to win Minnesotans over on substantive issues. Oh, wait a minute...

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Dems Preparing For Major Offensive Against Bachmann
The DCCC now plans to spend $1 million against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) in the wake of her McCarthyite rant on Hardball, sensing that voters back home might end up turning against her extremism. A TV ad should be coming in the next few days. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report has changed its rating on Bachmann, downgrading her by two whole positions from "Likely Republican" to "Tossup."

Democracy Corps: Congressional Dems Poised For Another Wave
A new set of polling from Democracy Corps, the strategy firm headed up by James Carville and Stan Greeberg, finds Democrats running strong in the 50 most-competitive House seats currently held by the GOP. Democrats lead 48%-46% in the full set of battleground district, and lead 51%-43% in the tier making up the most competitive seats of the 50. At the rate things are going, Democrats could pick up even more seats in the cycle right after they already enjoyed a wave -- a rare occurrence in politics.

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A Day At The Congressional Races

Bachmann Challenger's Fundraising Skyrockets
The campaign of Elwyn Tinklenberg, the Democratic challenger against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), tells Election Central that they've raised $650,000 online since her now-infamous McCarthyite appearance on Hardball. This is an astonishing number for a House race by any measure, and even more special in light of the fact that this is nearly twice his cash-on-hand at the end of September.

McConnell: I Would Still Back Iraq War, "Regardless Of The Initial Justification"
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) reaffirmed that he would have voted to authorize the Iraq War, even knowing now that there were no weapons of mass destruction. "Regardless of the initial justification, I don't think the Middle East or the world would be better off if he was there," McConnell told the Courier-Journal editorial board. "I think that is a substantial improvement."

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A Night At The Congressional Races

NRSC: We Are Not Pulling Out Of Colorado
The NRSC is denying reports that they are pulling out of the Colorado Senate race, a story that has been circulating on the blogs today. "Reports that we are pulling out of Colorado are false," NRSC spokesman John Randall told Election Central, adding that another ad is going up on the air.

DCCC Out-Raises NRCC In Loan Money, Too
The DCCC has taken out a $15 million loan in order to give themselves a financial boost in the home stretch of the election. This is nearly twice the the $8 million loan the NRCC took out in an attempt to even out their serious financial gap against the DCCC -- so the DCCC has responded in kind.

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GOP Senator's Ad: Gay Guys In Village People Garb Support My Opponent

Check out this new ad from Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who is facing a tough challenge from former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). This ad ties Musgrove, who is a pro-life social conservative and economic populist, to the liberal Democratic leadership in Washington -- and apparently to the Village People, too:

"The largest gay-rights group in the country," the man in the cowboy outfit says with a grin.

None of the liberal interest groups named in the ad have donated directly to Musgrove. But the issue for the Wicker campaign is that the DSCC is spending a whole lot of money -- some of it raised from these same groups -- on TV ads promoting Musgrove or attacking Wicker.

"The DSCC is set to spend $5.5 million in advertising on behalf of Ronnie Musgrove for Senate," Wicker spokesman Ryan Annison told Election Central. "They know that if he is elected, he will support their liberal Democrat leadership."

A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The bailout and the economic crisis continue to dominate the campaigns -- which is never good news for the GOP -- while the Republicans are fending off the attacks by charging that the Dems don't have any solutions, either.

Al Franken Opposes Bailout Bill
Al Franken has put out a press release strongly opposing the bailout bill, which incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman voted for: "Last night the United States Senate voted to take $700 billion from taxpayers who did nothing wrong and offer it as a sacrifice at the altar of financial mismanagement."

Smith And Merkley Joust Over The Bailout
Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is criticizing the bailout package, as well: "I have dedicated much of my life to advocating for consumers and I believe it is just wrong to spend $700 billion of taxpayer money to bailout the very Wall Street financiers who created this crisis." Incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has fired back at Merkley, saying Merkley has "shamefully placed his partisan ambitions ahead of the retirement, financial and economic security of the people he seeks to serve."

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: Dems are continuing to hammer the Republicans on the economy, as the GOP faces some more bad poll numbers.

GOP Rep: I Wouldn't Have Picked Palin
Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) told the Chicago Tribune, "Quite frankly, I don't know" whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be president. In a very frank admission, Kirk added, "I would have picked someone different." As the Tribune noted, Kirk was initially a vocal supporter of Palin's nomination when it was first announced. (Via Progress Illinois)

Dem Ad: Coleman's Attacks Against Franken Are Ridiculous
The DSCC has this funny ad out, mocking the GOP's attacks against Al Franken:

"Al Franken sank this ship! Crashed these trains! And he hates puppies!" the announcer says. There is one problem, though: This ad is reminiscent of the humorous "Steele hates puppies" ad from the 2006 Maryland Senate race -- and Michael Steele lost by ten points.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are leveraging their big financial advantage over the GOP into an extensive round of attack ads against the Republicans, in order to pick up some usually-tough seats this November.

National Dems Launch New Wave Of Attack Ads In House Races
The DCCC has launched a major TV attack ad offensive in districts across the country, some of them defending Dem-held seats but others running in GOP-held areas that are traditionally very difficult for the Dems. Ads will be running in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Here's one of the ads, running in a deep-red New Mexico district:

New York GOP Trying To Dump Candidate For Key House Seat
The race for the open seat of scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) just keeps getting weirder, with Manhattan Republicans now nominating unpopular GOP nominee Bob Straniere for an open judgeship as a means of getting him to drop out of the race -- but Straniere is refusing. National Republicans feel that their chances of holding the seat could potentially improve if they can substitute Fossella himself as the new candidate, but they're not optimistic that it will actually happen.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The political attacks today have been particularly rough, with candidates being charged with exporting jobs, crafting legislation to benefit themselves financially -- and writing pornography.

NRSC Ad: Al Franken Jokes About Rape, Physically Assaults People
Wow. The NRSC's new ad against Al Franken doesn't pull any punches, calling him "unfit for office" due in part to the many sick jokes he's told over the years as a comedian:

"Franken writes about committing rape," the announcer says. "Franken writes pornography so vile, Democrats denounced it."

Poll: Minnesota Senate Race A Dead Heat
A new Rasmussen poll confirms just how close the Minnesota Senate race is -- and explains why both sides are busy running the nastiest attack ads they can think of. The numbers: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 48%, Al Franken (D) 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Last month, the two of them were tied 45%-45%.

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A Night At The Congressional Races

Here's tonight's rundown on the Congressional races: It wasn't a good day for the GOP, with a mixture of legal defeat, the wrong candidate winning the nomination for a key seat, and tough counter-attacks from the Dems.

Democrats Win Court Battle In Mississippi Senate Race
In a surprise victory for the Dems, the Mississippi Supreme Court has ruled against the efforts by GOP Gov. Haley Barbour to bury the hotly-contested special election for Senate at the bottom of the physical ballot used on Election Day, where lower-information voters might have overlooked it. Oddly enough, though, the court declined to issue a formal order that Barbour must change the ballot, but only threatened to issue one if he did not comply from here on out.

Late Update: Barbour's office says he will comply with the ruling.

NY Conservatives: No, We're Not Nominating Fossella
A leader of the New York Conservative Party is ruling out the possibility of subbing in scandal-plagued retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) as their new nominee for Congress. "No, absolutely not," said Brooklyn party chairman Jerry Kassar, in an interview with Election Central. "He is not under consideration, nor has he requested consideration."

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A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's a rundown of the latest developments on the down-ticket races: The Dem party committees are going on offense, hitting the air with a new round of attack ads against the Republican candidates.

Dem Ad Against Coleman: Parents Blame Him For Son's Death In Iraq
The DSCC has this very emotional and hard-hitting new ad up against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), featurng Nancy and Claremont Anderson, the parents of a Minnesota soldier who was killed in Iraq:

"I don't blame the Army for our son's death," Nancy says. "I just blame the bad policies on President Bush, Norm Coleman, who voted for this."


Dem Ad: Republican House Candidate Is Wacky Cartoon Character
Check out this goofy attack ad from the DCCC in one fo the open GOP-held House seats in New Jersey. The ad depicts GOP nominee Leonard Lane, a state Senator, as a dancing cartoon character:

"Watch Leonard Lance do the old Trenton dance," the announcer says mockingly.

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GOP Efforts To Rig Big Senate Race Hit Snag

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and the state GOP's apparent efforts to rig this year's big Senate race have hit a bump in the road, with the state Dems winning a victory today in court -- though it may prove to be only temporary.

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GOP Officials Plotting To Rig Race For Mississippi Senate Seat?

This seems like a big deal: Is the GOP trying to confuse voters and rig the election against the Democratic candidate in a hotly-contested race for a plum Senate seat?

It seems that way to quite a few people in Mississippi -- because the candidates for this election have now been placed in obscurity at the very bottom of the physical ballot that voters will see on Election Day.

In a move that could very well bring on a lawsuit, the state elections board -- controlled by the GOP -- today put the special election for Senate underneath even races for county offices and school boards. This was despite the fact that state law seems to clearly require placing federal races at the top of the ballot.

Placing a race like this at the bottom of the ballot could cause many lower-information voters to overlook it. Democrats feel this decision will disproportionately affect poorer voters who tend to vote Democratic, and furthermore that this was the whole point.

A statement from Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove implied that a lawsuit could be on the way. "We will win this election no matter where the Secretary of State puts it on the ballot," said Musgrove's campaign manager. "But this is about the law and they don't get to make up their own laws."

Polls: Dems Running Strong In Multiple Senate Races

A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:

In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.

In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.

In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.

In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.

The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.

Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.

Alarmed GOP Sends In Bush To Help Save Mississippi Senate Seat

Here's yet another indication that national Republicans think they're seriously at risk of losing a key Senate seat in deep red Mississippi: President Bush is set to visit the state on July 1, for a fundraising event with appointed Sen. Roger Wicker, the Tupelo Daily Journal reports.

Recent polls have shown a close race between Wicker and Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove, a former one-term governor -- even though Bush won the state by a 60%-40% margin back in 2004.

This visit tells us two things. First, that Republicans are genuinely worried about this seat and are moving to build up their financial advantage -- and given the state's deep conservatism, a loss here would be devastating. Second, there is at least one state left where a Republican would actually want Bush to visit on his behalf.

Poll: GOP Senate Incumbent Trailing In Mississippi

In yet another indication that Senate Republicans are really playing on defense everywhere this year, a new Rasmussen poll has bad news for them in even the deep-red state of Mississippi, with appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) now trailing former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) in a race that's within the margin of error:

Musgrove (D) 47%
Wicker (R) 46%

Sample size: 500 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%

As we noted a few days ago, Wicker is already up on the air -- having to introduce himself to voters in a state that President Bush carried with 60% of the vote in 2004.

If the Dems were to manage to knock off a GOP Senator in the Deep South, it really would be a massive victory.

GOP Senate Seat At Risk In Deep-Red State Of Mississippi?

In a sign that Republicans may sense they are at risk of losing a Senate seat in even the deep-red state of Mississippi, appointed incumbent Roger Wicker (R) has a new ad up introducing himself to voters five months before the election:

Recent polling has shown Wicker in a close race against former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D).

In the wake of a surprise House special election victory for the Democrats in the state a couple weeks ago, the possibility that a GOP Senate seat is even in play in Mississippi is a stunning reminder of the extent to which Republicans are on defense all over the map heading into this Fall.

Poll: Republican Senator In Close Race In Mississippi

Republicans may now have a tough time on their hands defending a Senate seat in, of all places, Mississippi.

The new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by Daily Kos: Appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 46%, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) 42%. Margin of error: ±4%.

Mississippi would normally be considered beyond reach for the Democrats, but a lot of doubt has been cast upon that normal assumption by the recent special election win in Wicker's former House district. And the general circumstances of this year, with Wicker's recent appointment to the seat and an under-funded national Senate GOP organization, could open up new opportunities for the Dems.

Two Dems Declare In Mississippi Senate Race

Two Democrats have entered the race to oppose Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who was appointed to Trent Lott's Senate seat. Just when the special election will be held — in the next three months, or coinciding with the November election — will be the subject of much legal wrangling.

One is former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who served one term before his 2003 defeat at the hands of current Gov. Haley Barbour (R). Musgrove confirmed to the Associated Press that he will formally announce his candidacy on Monday.

The other is former Congressman Ronnie Shows, who was first elected to the House in 1998, but lost re-election after the 2002 redistricting. "I think this opportunity doesn’t come by very often — to have an open Senate seat — and it’s something I feel ready to do," Shows told the AP.

Mississippi AG Sues Over Senate Election Date

Republican Congressman Roger Wicker (R-MS) was named as the appointee to Trent Lott's Senate seat only two days ago, but the legal wrangling has already begun. State Attorney General Jim Hood (D) has made good on his promise to sue Gov. Haley Barbour (R) over when the special election for the rest of the term ought to be held.

Hood says that the election must take place within the next 90 days under state law, while Barbour maintains that Wicker can serve until the November election. A spring election might give a relatively conservative Democrat a decent shot, while a November race would be much more in favor of the Republican incumbent, running alongside the presidential election.

MS Rep. Wicker Appointed To The Senate

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger is reporting that Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) will appoint Congressman Roger Wicker (R) to the United States Senate, filling the vacancy created by Trent Lott's resignation. Wicker would take office immediately, possibly followed by legal wrangling over whether the required special election should take place within 90 days or instead coincide with the 2008 general election.

As for Wicker's House district, from which he would resign in order to take the appointment, President Bush carried it with 62% of the vote in 2004, so the Republicans would be initially favored in the special election.

Late Update: Barbour has made it official.

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