Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:

• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.

• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.

All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.

As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.

The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:

• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.

• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.

These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.

All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.

It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.

Missouri is a key state to watch because it voted twice for Bush, with a seven-point margin in 2004, and has a historic status as the poster-child for swing states -- it only voted for the loser once in the past 100 years. And today we have the fourth poll in a row showing that the state is a dead-heat and could easily go either way this time:

• SurveyUSA, released this morning: Obama 48%, McCain 48%, compared to a 51%-43% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Zogby, released this morning: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll here for comparison.

• Research 2000, released yesterday: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 47%-46% McCain edge a month ago.

• Mason-Dixon, released yesterday: McCain 46%, Obama 45%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Mason-Dixon poll here for comparison.

This state was thought to be trending more and more Republican until the 2006 Senate win by Democrat Claire McCaskill, and the Dems are also expected to win the open GOP-held gubernatorial race in a landslide this year.

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.

• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.

• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.

• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.

Obama Ad: McCain Will Tax Your Health Benefits And Cut Medicare
The Obama campaign has another TV ad in targeted states, warning voters that their health benefits will be taxed under John McCain's plan and he'll cut Medicare too, in an effort to both court older voters and to neutralize the tax issue by turning it right back on the GOP:

"John McCain: Taxing health benefits, cutting Medicare," the announcer says. "We can't afford John McCain."

Hillary On Fox News: Dems Have To "Take Them On"
Josh Orton of MyDD reports that on a conference call with bloggers late yesterday, Hillary Clinton urged Democrats to go on Fox News, rather than boycott them: "I don't think we benefit from ignoring the reality that they're there," she said. "We have to try to take them on and do so in an effective manner." More from Hilllary here.

Obama In Virginia, Biden In New Mexico And Nevada
Barack Obama is holding a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Roanoke, Virginia. Joe Biden is campaigning out West, with a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Mesilla, New Mexico, and a rally later tonight in Henderson, Nevada.

McCain In Florida, Palin In Ohio And Indiana
John McCain is holding a 1:15 p.m. rally in Miami, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Melbourne, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in West Chester, Ohio, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Noblesville, Indiana.

McCain Gets Grilled On Letterman
John McCain appeared last night on the David Letterman show, hoping to patch things up after he stood Dave up a few weeks ago. Instead, he was asked a series of tough questions about Sarah Palin's qualifications, and whether the logic of his accusations against Barack Obama regarding Bill Ayers could extend to McCain's own associations with G. Gordon Liddy.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Missouri, Tied In Ohio
A new Rasmussen poll in Missouri gives Barack Obama a 52%-46% in this perennial swing state, where he trailed in the polls until just recently, up from a 50%-47% lead in Rasmussen's polling a few days ago. Rasmussen also has Obama and McCain tied 49%-49% in Ohio, not significantly different from a 49%-47% Obama lead a few days ago.

Palin To Appear On Saturday Night Live
Sarah Palin will be appearing tomorrow on Saturday Night Live, just to show that she's a good sport about the way they've lampooned her over the past month and a half. It's not known yet whether Tina Fey will also be on the show -- or for that matter, whether anybody will be able to tell the difference.

In another indication that Barack Obama is gaining steam in Republican-Leaning states, a new SurveyUSA poll is giving Obama a big lead in Missouri, a perennial swing state where John McCain has been ahead for much of this year.

The numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.3% margin of error. SurveyUSA's previous poll from late September gave McCain a 48%-46% lead, and on the whole the most recent polls haven't given either a candidate an edge of more than just a few points.

The poll shows Obama holding down a solid 89% of self-identified Democrats, and winning independents by a 46%-41% margin.

A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:

• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.

• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.

• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.

• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.

• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.

Wow. Hours after a set of polls showed Obama gaining in key battlegrounds, another batch of polls from CNN finds additional confirmation that the economic crisis has put Obama way up in other ones:

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±4% margin of error.

Four of these states were won by George W. Bush twice, with Minnesota being the only exception. All totaled, those four red states add up to 56 electoral votes -- and John McCain can barely afford to lose even one electoral vote from the Republican column.

Also, CNN has changed their map to favor Obama a little bit more -- Minnesota has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Obama, and Missouri from Leans McCain to Toss-Up.

Planned Parenthood is going up with an absolutely brutal new ad hammering the policy of Wasilla, Alaska of charging rape victims for gathering evidence when Palin was mayor:

"Under Mayor Sarah Palin, women like Gretchen were forced to pay up to $1,200 for the emergency exams used to prosecute their attackers," the announcer says, after a heartbreaking testimonial from a woman talking about her own experience of being raped. "In the Senate, John McCain voted against legislation to protect women from these same heartless policies."

The ad will run in Missouri, Wisconsin, and the Northern Virginia media market.

(Via First Read)

Tonight: The Debate
The first presidential debate is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET tonight at the University of Mississippi. Barack Obama will be showing up, while John McCain has not committed to coming yet. McCain will probably show up in the end, but at this point the possibility can't be entirely discounted that Obama will have the stage all to himself at Ole Miss.

Candidates In DC Today, Working On Bailout
The presidential nominees are in Washington today, as negotiations drag on for the Wall St. bailout, before Barack Obama and perhaps John McCain leave for a debate in Mississippi. It is not clear if the impasses that derailed a deal last night will be resolved today in such a manner as to reach the main goal: That some kind of deal be passed with the support of a majority of both parties.

Biden Blames GOP -- And Possibly McCain -- For Bailout Failure
Joe Biden told donors at a fundraiser last night that the Republicans were to blame for the failure of the bailout talks, singling out JOhn McCain. "We were going to all put this behind us and then I'm told that things changed," Biden said, "that John McCain landed about four o'clock and all of a sudden -- I don't know what the reason -- but some of the House Republicans decided that this, this wasn't going to go forward, at least not right away."

Poll: McCain's Lead Slips In Florida
The new Rasmussen poll of Florida gives John McCain a bare lead of 48%-47%, within the ±4% margin of error. The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, had put him ahead by a 51%-46% margin.

Polls: Tight Race In Missouri, McCain Narrowly Ahead
A new Research 2000 poll gives John McCain a 47%-46% lead in the perennial swing state of Missouri, down slightly from a 49%-45% lead from a poll conducted last week. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA gives McCain a 48%-46% lead, compared to a 49%-44% lead from two months ago.

Polls: Obama Taking Narrow Lead In New Hampshire
A new Research 2000 poll gives Barack Obama a 48%-44% lead in New Hampshire, within the ±4% margin of error. And a Strategic Vision (R) poll gives Obama a bare one-point edge of 46%-45%. John McCain had previously been leading in the preponderance of polls here.

A new set of CNN battleground state polls, all conducted in the days after the Republican convention wrapped up, suggests the presidential race remains close in four key states despite John McCain's national bounce:

• In Michigan, which voted for John Kerry by three points in 2004, Barack Obama is ahead 51%-45%.

• In Missouri, which George W. Bush carried by seven points in 2004, John McCain currently has a 50%-45% lead.

• In New Hampshire, which went to Kerry by a very narrow one-point margin, Obama is up 51%-45%.

• In Virginia, which Bush carried by eight points but has also become much bluer in the last four years, McCain has a lead of 50%-46%.

Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.

The polls for Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire all have a margin of error of ±3%, while the margin in Virginia is ±3.5%

Obama: McCain Team Aren't Racist -- They're Cynical
Speaking to reporters today in Florida, Barack Obama said the McCain campaign has tried to district voters from the real issues by focusing on his background. "In no way do I think that John McCain's campaign is being racist, I think they're being cynical," Obama said.

Obama In Florida Today
Barack Obama is in Florida today, where he's speaking before the National Urban League's annual convention -- a minority audience where the racial tensions of the current campaign are surely on many people's minds. John McCain spoke there yesterday, and was received politely.

McCain Off The Trail Today
John McCain has no public events scheduled for today.

Obama Offers Support For Energy Compromise -- Including Offshore Drilling
Barack Obama has shifted his position somewhat on offshore drilling, telling the St. Petersburg Times that he could support the "Gang of Ten" energy compromise unveiled yesterday by a group of Republican and moderate Democratic Senators: "My attitude is that we can find some sort of compromise." In addition to supporting offshore drilling, the proposal would also fund alternative energy sources and further other policy goals typically favored by Dems.

Poll: Ted Stevens Losing To Democratic Candidate By A Landslide
Another poll in Alaska, this time from local firm Ivan Moore Research, shows indicted GOP Sen. Ted Stevens' political fortunes plummeting in the wake of his indictment. Stevens remains a safe bet to win the Republican primary, leading his closest challenger by 40 points -- but in the general election against Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Steven is trailing by a whopping 56%-35% margin.

Poll: McCain Up In Missouri
A new SurveyUSA poll gives John McCain a 49%-44% lead in the perennial swing state of Missouri, not significantly changed from a 50%-43% lead in late June. Other recent polls have given Barack Obama the lead here, making the reality of the situation something of an unknown.

McCain's "Country First Concert" Only Gets Hundreds Of People
Despite having the free entertainment of country music star John Rich, premiering his new song paying tribute to the candidate, the Washington Post reports that a McCain rally in the Florida Panhandle was only able to attract several hundred people. That's just a tiny fraction of the thousands of people who typically show up for John Rich at his own concerts -- meaning that John McCain is a serious drag on any marquee bill.

The Obama campaign is making a major play for the perennial swing state of Missouri, but a new poll finds that John McCain has taken the lead there.

The latest numbers from Rasmussen: McCain 47%, Obama 42%. A month ago, it was Obama 43% to McCain 42%. This is in line with a SurveyUSA poll from two weeks ago, which also had McCain taking the lead after Obama had previously held a narrow edge.

The Obama campaign is pouring an extraordinary amount of resources into the state. The Kansas City Star reports today that the campaign is hiring an astonishing 150 paid staffers for Missouri alone.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows John McCain taking a decent lead in one battleground state: Missouri.

The numbers: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, with a ±4.3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama had a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-43%. The race here has a very stark gender gap: Men go for McCain 60%-36%, and women for Obama 50%-41%.

This state has 11 electoral votes, and has voted for the winner in every presidential election over the last 100 years except for 1956.

An Obama aide sent me this front page from today's Southeast Missourian -- a sign that visits like yesterday's stop in Cape Girardeau, in the swing state of MO, may start garnering him the sort of general-election-has-begun local coverage he's looking for.

Click on the image to enlarge...

Today Obama hits Michigan, and expect to see more of these visits in coming days.

A new Rasmussen poll of Missouri shows that this key swing state could be poised to go Republican this time around:

McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 41%
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 38%

The brutality of the Democratic race could be having an effect here: Barack Obama's favorable rating is at only 47%, Hillary's at 45% — and John McCain's at 59%.

A new set of polls by SurveyUSA shows that Barack Obama's electability has taken a serious drubbing as a result of his recent setbacks, and he now does much poorer than Hillary Clinton does against John McCain in the three tested states:

Ohio
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%

Missouri
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 46%
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 39%

Kentucky
McCain (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 43%
McCain (R) 64%, Obama (D) 28%

The internals show that in all three cases Obama gets a smaller share of the white vote than Hillary does, without room for his improvements among African-Americans to make up the difference.

(Via MyDD)

Late Update: One thing also worth noting is that these polls were conducted before Obama's speech yesterday on race relations, so we simply don't know yet what impact it might have in turning these numbers around.

So what do the final polls forecast for today? Well, the predictions for the key states are that Hillary Clinton will win California and Missouri — and that Barack Obama will win California and Missouri:

California

SurveyUSA: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%

Zogby: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%

Missouri

SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%

Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 42%

So there you have it: Two pollsters, each with pretty good track records, giving wildly different poll results for today. Obviously they can't both be right, and there's at least a decent chance that they're both wrong. We'll find out the truth of the matter tonight.

Late Update: Another thing to consider is that a large number of ballots have already been cast by mail. SurveyUSA gives those to Hillary by a wide margin, while the widely respected Field Poll registered a one-point edge to ... Obama. In short, there simply isn't any real way to know right now if any of these polls are accurately predicting the outcome.

This morning's Zogby polls show John McCain on track for some big victories tomorrow, with California being the only real trouble spot:

California:
Romney 40% (+3)
McCain 32% (-2)
Huckabee 12%

Missouri:
McCain 35% (-1)
Huckabee 27%(+0)
Romney 24% (+2)

New Jersey:
McCain 52% (-2)
Romney 26% (+3)
Huckabee 7% (+0)

New York:
McCain 53% (+4)
Romney 19% (-4)
Huckabee 8% (+0)

This morning's set of Zogby tracking polls shows Barack Obama with clear momentum in the key primary states, with apparent leads in both California and Missouri, plus a big one in Georgia:

California:
Obama 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-1)

Georgia:
Obama 48% (+0)
Clinton 31% (+3)

Missouri:
Obama 47% (+4)
Clinton 42% (-2)

New Jersey:
Clinton 43% (+0)
Obama 43% (+1)

Zogby credits Obama's movement to a "big Sunday bounce," but we'll find out soon enough whether that keeps up into Monday and, most importantly, the Tuesday election itself.

With the Democratic race fast shifting to a national contest, the campaigns are ramping up their buying in the Feb. 5th states. The Edwards camp, for instance, announced on a conference call an "aggressive" new ad buy in 10 states over the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is rolling out a series of state ads, including one in Missouri starring Obama backer Claire McCaskill...

...and another in Arizona starring Janet Napolitano: