A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:
• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.
• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.
• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.
All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.
Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Four Battleground States
A new set of polls from Quinnipiac gives Barack Obama very strong leads in four key swing states: He's up 52%-43% in Colorado, 54%-38% in Michigan, 51%-40% in Minnesota, and 54%-37% in Wisconsin. Three of these four states have gone Democratic in the past two elections -- though by close margins -- and Colorado would represent a pick-up in the Dem column away from the GOP.
McCain To Unveil New Economic Proposals Today
John McCain will use his rally today in Pennsylvania as a platform to unveil new proposals on the economy, billed as his "Pension And Family Security Plan," an issue area that has in large part contributed to Barack Obama's lead in the polls. The plan will combine capital-gains tax cuts with a proposal to have the government buy out variable-rate mortgages and replace them with more manageable fixed-rate loans.
Obama Off The Trail, Biden Swinging Through Ohio
Barack Obama has no public events today, probably due to final preparations for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is touring Ohio today, with multiple events: A 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Warren, a 4 p.m. ET rally in St. Clairsville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Marietta.
McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are both campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a large swing state that has been slipping away from them in the polls. McCain is holding an 11:30 a.m. rally in Blue Bell, and Palin has a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton.
RNC Spending More And More Money On Ads
The Republican National Committee has shelled out $5 million to run two of their TV ads against Barack Obama -- one that attacks him as a Chicago machine politician, and the other that tags him as a big spender. The RNC has raised roughly $50 million more than the DNC, which has essentially made up for Barack Obama's cash advantage over John McCain's individual campaign committee.
McCain Camp Caught Lying About Crowd Sizes Again
The McCain campaign has again been caught puffing up the number of people who attend their rallies. The campaign claimed that 25,000 people attended John McCain's Virginia Beach rally -- but the venue only holds 16,000, and the fire marshall estimated that only 12,000 people were in attendance.
McCain's Brother Insults Northern Virginia
At a rally in the Northern Virginia swing area of Loudon County, John McCain's brother Joe McCain referred to the Dem strongholds of Alexandria and Arlington as "communist country." "This was Joe McCain's unsuccessful attempt at humor," said a McCain spokeswoman. "John McCain and Sarah Palin are committed to winning the support of voters in Northern Virginia and understand the region's importance to victory statewide."
Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Asheville, North Carolina, with a rally scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET. Joe Biden does not have any public events, having cancelled his weekend campaign schedule due to a family medical emergency.
Palin Holds Rally In Deep-Red Nebraska
Sarah Palin has a rally today in Omaha, Nebraska, set to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. It seems odd that Palin would have to go to rev up the party base in a state that is guaranteed to go their way -- but in this case, it's because Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Obama camp has been making a play for this area. John McCain is off the campaign trail, preparing for Tuesday's debate.
HuffPo: Palin's Latest Line Against Obama Is A Long-Discredited Smear The Huffington Postpoints out this morning that Sarah Palin has taken up a smear against Barack Obama that was discredited a year ago: That he said U.S. troops in Afghanistan were only killing civilians. In fact, Obama was addressing a problem that the White House and Pentagon have recognized as a serious concern, and the need to put more troops in Afghanistan in order to avoid such an impression becoming more widespread among the people there.
Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-42% lead in Ohio, outside of the ±2% margin of error. If Obama were to pick up Ohio for the Dems, it would become virtually impossible for John McCain to put together an Electoral College majority.
Poll: It's A Tie In Colorado
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado shows a tied race in this key swing state, with Obama and McCain at 44% each. Back in August, Obama had a 45%-42% lead, not significantly different from this new number.
Poll: Obama Way Ahead In Minnesota
The new Star Tribune poll gives Barack Obama a 55%-37% lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted GOP since 1972 but has been increasingly close in recent elections. A SurveyUSA poll from just a few days ago gave McCain a 47%-46% lead, and a CNN poll from a few days ago put Obama ahead 54%-43%, further complicating the picture here.
New Obama Ad Hits McCain And Palin On Health Care Taxes
The Obama campaign is right out of the gate with this post-debate TV ad, set to air on national cable, featuring video of Joe Biden taking apart Sarah Palin on health care:
"Taxing your health care benefit," Biden says. "I call that the "Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere."
Obama In Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Pennsylvania, with an event at 11 a.m. in Abington. Joe Biden does not have any public events.
McCain In Colorado
John McCain is holding a town-hall style event today in Pueblo, Colorado, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin does not have any public events.
WaPo: McCain's Senate Chief Of Staff Is Former Freddie Lobbyist
The Washington Post reports this morning that John McCain's current Senate chief of staff, Mark Buse, was hired by Freddie Mac to lobby McCain back in 2003 and 2004 on the issue of executive pay. Freddie hired Buse specifically because of his closeness to McCain.
Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Lead In Minnesota
A new SurveyUSA poll is giving John McCain a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted Republican since the 1972 Nixon landslide. The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±3.7% margin of error.
Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In New Hampshire
A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a 53%-43% lead in this swing state, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004. Just a week ago, Rasmsussen gave McCain a 49%-47% lead.
Palin Got Troop Levels Wrong
On top the McClellan/McKiernan gaffe, here's another mistake that Sarah Palin made last night: Getting the number of troops in Iraq wrong. Palin claimed forces are now down to pre-surge levels, FactCheck.org notes, but in reality there are still about 14,000 more troops than were there in January 2007.
Wow. Hours after a set of polls showed Obama gaining in key battlegrounds, another batch of polls from CNN finds additional confirmation that the economic crisis has put Obama way up in other ones:
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error.
• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±4% margin of error.
Four of these states were won by George W. Bush twice, with Minnesota being the only exception. All totaled, those four red states add up to 56 electoral votes -- and John McCain can barely afford to lose even one electoral vote from the Republican column.
Also, CNN has changed their map to favor Obama a little bit more -- Minnesota has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Obama, and Missouri from Leans McCain to Toss-Up.
New McCain Ad: Dems Don't Know What To Do About The Market
The Mccain campaign has another ad out on the economy, depicting Democrats as clueless on the economy -- and using some very interesting imagery:
Note that the "CEO rip-offs" line is accompanied by a shifty-looking pic of Franklin Raines, whom the McCain camp has accused the Obama campaign -- on scant evidence at best -- of receiving economic advice from. This is then followed by a photo of an innocent-looking middle-aged white woman.
Obama Ad: McCain Protects Companies That Hide Their Assets
Here's a new Obama national cable TV ad hitting John McCain on corporate accountability, hammering him for protecting tax breaks for companies that hide their profits offshore:
"McCain went to Bermuda," the announcer says. "And while he was there pledged to protect tax breaks for American corporations that hide their profits offshore. And grateful insurance company executives and their lobbyists who benefit from the tax scheme, gave McCain $50,000.
Obama Off The Trail, Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama does not have any public events today, probably because he's preparing for the first debate this Friday -- but he's also done a taped interview for the Today Show this morning. Joe Biden has an event as 12 p.m. ET in Woodbridge, Virginia, and he'll be speaking to the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington at 5 p.m. ET.
McCain In Ohio And Michigan
John McCain is campaigning today in Ohio and Michigan, with a stop this morning in Middleburg, Ohio, and another this afternoon in Freeland, Michigan.
Palin Meets The World Leaders
This is Sarah Palin's big day at the U.N., where she'll be meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Polls: Obama Up In Colorado, Three Other Key States
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in four key battleground states. The numbers: Obama is up 49%-45% in Colorado, 48%-44% in Michigan, 47%-45% in Minnesota, and 49%-42% in Wisconsin. The margins of error are all ±2.7%, except in Colorado where it is ±2.6%.
Poll: Obama Ahead In Florida
A new NBC News poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% lead in Florida, within the ±4% margin of error. All the other recent polls have put McCain ahead in this state, but who knows, this might be the start of an uptrend for Obama.
McCain's Transition Head Lobbied For Freddie Mac
Here's yet another lobbyist-related headache for John McCain when it comes to his campaign's attacks on Barack Obama. Bloomberg reports that William Timmons, the lobbyist who McCain has tapped to head up his transition team should he be elected, lobbied for Freddie Mac from 2000 up until the government takeover.
Biden Walks Back Criticism Of Obama Ad
The Obama camp released this statement last night from Joe Biden, retracting his criticism of the campaign's ad that hits John McCain for being a computer-illiterate:
"I was asked about an ad I'd never seen, reacting merely to press reports. As I said right then, I knew there was nothing intentionally personal in the criticism of Senator McCain's views which look backwards not forwards and are out of touch with the new economic challenges we face today. Having now reviewed the ad, it is even more clear to me that given the disgraceful tenor of Senator McCain's ads and their persistent falsehoods, his campaign is in no position to criticize, especially when they continue to distort Barack's votes on an issue as personal as keeping kids safe from sexual predator."
Two new polls from over the weekend are showing a very close race in Minnesota, a sign that Barack Obama may have to play on defense in some Dem-leaning states.
The new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead of 49%-47%, within the ±3.7% margin of error. And a Star Tribune poll has the race as a 45%-45% tie.
This state hasn't voted Republican since the Nixon landslide of 1972, but was actually pretty close in 2000 and 2004. Barack Obama used to lead here by a much greater margin, but the polls here and and in other states show that the electoral map is quickly narrowing to a traditional grouping of swing states.
A new set of polls has good news for Barack Obama in four key battleground states:
• In Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, a new CNN poll has Obama ahead of John McCain by a 55%-40% margin.
• In Minnesota, which went narrowly to Kerry, CNN has Obama up 53%-41%.
• In Ohio, where President Bush's narrow 2004 win sealed his overall victory, the CNN poll gives Obama a 47%-45% edge, within the ±3.5% margin of error.
• In North Carolina, which hasn't voted Dem since 1976, a Democracy Corps (D) poll gives John McCain a narrow advantage of 47%-44% -- and gives Democratic Senate challenger Kay Hagan a 50%-45% lead over GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole.
If Obama's leads in Iowa and Ohio were to hold through November, it would be impossible for John McCain to win unless he could pick up some Kerry states.
A new set of swing-state polls show Barack Obama narrowly ahead in three key swing states, all of which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004:
• The new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, within the ±4% margin of error.
• Meanwhile, a new University of Minnesota poll gives Obama 48% to McCain's 38% -- but the pollster's analysis finds that McCain could carry the state if he picks Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.
All of these states voted for John Kerry in 2004 by margins of only one to three points, so expect them to be closely contested from now through November.
Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.
Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:
Colorado McCain (R) 46% (+2) Obama (D) 44% (-5)
Michigan Obama (D) 46% (-2) McCain (R) 42% (+0)
Minnesota Obama (D) 46% (-8) McCain (R) 44% (+7)
Wisconsin Obama (D) 50% (-1) McCain (R) 39% (+0)
From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."
Barack Obama is well-positioned to win a set of key swing states, a new round of Quinnipiac polls suggests -- and some of these aren't even close. The numbers:
Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin all voted narrowly for John Kerry and Al Gore, while Colorado gave its nine electoral votes to George W. Bush twice. So it's definitely a good sign for Obama that he's way ahead in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has decent-sized leads in both Colorado and Michigan.
A new Rasmussen poll shows that the state of Minnesota, which hasn't voted Republican for president since 1972 but has become much closer in recent cycles, could be a swing state again this time around:
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton running well in the general election in Minnesota — but this should not be too shocking, as the state has not voted Republican since 1972:
Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 40% Clinton (D) 57%, Thompson (R) 37% Clinton (D) 57%, Romney (R) 34% Clinton (D) 60%, Huckabee (R) 30% Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43% Clinton (D) 61%, Paul (R) 28% Gore (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Polling released this morning by SurveyUSA shows Hillary Clinton with strong general election leads in Iowa and Minnesota, and some close results in Wisconsin. Iowa was narrowly carried by President Bush in 2004, while Minnesota and Wisconsin went for John Kerry by close margins. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.
These results — like the poll we posted of Pennsylvania earlier — would definitely seem to undermine the conventional pundit wisdom that Hillary may be unelectable. Also, the result in Iowa is very interesting in that they switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004. It now appears that they're swinging back to the Democrats in a big way.
