Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Four Battleground States
A new set of polls from Quinnipiac gives Barack Obama very strong leads in four key swing states: He's up 52%-43% in Colorado, 54%-38% in Michigan, 51%-40% in Minnesota, and 54%-37% in Wisconsin. Three of these four states have gone Democratic in the past two elections -- though by close margins -- and Colorado would represent a pick-up in the Dem column away from the GOP.

McCain To Unveil New Economic Proposals Today
John McCain will use his rally today in Pennsylvania as a platform to unveil new proposals on the economy, billed as his "Pension And Family Security Plan," an issue area that has in large part contributed to Barack Obama's lead in the polls. The plan will combine capital-gains tax cuts with a proposal to have the government buy out variable-rate mortgages and replace them with more manageable fixed-rate loans.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden Swinging Through Ohio
Barack Obama has no public events today, probably due to final preparations for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is touring Ohio today, with multiple events: A 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Warren, a 4 p.m. ET rally in St. Clairsville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Marietta.

McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are both campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a large swing state that has been slipping away from them in the polls. McCain is holding an 11:30 a.m. rally in Blue Bell, and Palin has a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton.

RNC Spending More And More Money On Ads
The Republican National Committee has shelled out $5 million to run two of their TV ads against Barack Obama -- one that attacks him as a Chicago machine politician, and the other that tags him as a big spender. The RNC has raised roughly $50 million more than the DNC, which has essentially made up for Barack Obama's cash advantage over John McCain's individual campaign committee.

McCain Camp Caught Lying About Crowd Sizes Again
The McCain campaign has again been caught puffing up the number of people who attend their rallies. The campaign claimed that 25,000 people attended John McCain's Virginia Beach rally -- but the venue only holds 16,000, and the fire marshall estimated that only 12,000 people were in attendance.

New McCain Ad: Dems Don't Know What To Do About The Market
The Mccain campaign has another ad out on the economy, depicting Democrats as clueless on the economy -- and using some very interesting imagery:

Note that the "CEO rip-offs" line is accompanied by a shifty-looking pic of Franklin Raines, whom the McCain camp has accused the Obama campaign -- on scant evidence at best -- of receiving economic advice from. This is then followed by a photo of an innocent-looking middle-aged white woman.

Obama Ad: McCain Protects Companies That Hide Their Assets
Here's a new Obama national cable TV ad hitting John McCain on corporate accountability, hammering him for protecting tax breaks for companies that hide their profits offshore:

"McCain went to Bermuda," the announcer says. "And while he was there pledged to protect tax breaks for American corporations that hide their profits offshore. And grateful insurance company executives and their lobbyists who benefit from the tax scheme, gave McCain $50,000.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama does not have any public events today, probably because he's preparing for the first debate this Friday -- but he's also done a taped interview for the Today Show this morning. Joe Biden has an event as 12 p.m. ET in Woodbridge, Virginia, and he'll be speaking to the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington at 5 p.m. ET.

McCain In Ohio And Michigan
John McCain is campaigning today in Ohio and Michigan, with a stop this morning in Middleburg, Ohio, and another this afternoon in Freeland, Michigan.

Palin Meets The World Leaders
This is Sarah Palin's big day at the U.N., where she'll be meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Polls: Obama Up In Colorado, Three Other Key States
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in four key battleground states. The numbers: Obama is up 49%-45% in Colorado, 48%-44% in Michigan, 47%-45% in Minnesota, and 49%-42% in Wisconsin. The margins of error are all ±2.7%, except in Colorado where it is ±2.6%.

Poll: Obama Ahead In Florida
A new NBC News poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% lead in Florida, within the ±4% margin of error. All the other recent polls have put McCain ahead in this state, but who knows, this might be the start of an uptrend for Obama.

McCain's Transition Head Lobbied For Freddie Mac
Here's yet another lobbyist-related headache for John McCain when it comes to his campaign's attacks on Barack Obama. Bloomberg reports that William Timmons, the lobbyist who McCain has tapped to head up his transition team should he be elected, lobbied for Freddie Mac from 2000 up until the government takeover.

Biden Walks Back Criticism Of Obama Ad
The Obama camp released this statement last night from Joe Biden, retracting his criticism of the campaign's ad that hits John McCain for being a computer-illiterate:

"I was asked about an ad I'd never seen, reacting merely to press reports. As I said right then, I knew there was nothing intentionally personal in the criticism of Senator McCain's views which look backwards not forwards and are out of touch with the new economic challenges we face today. Having now reviewed the ad, it is even more clear to me that given the disgraceful tenor of Senator McCain's ads and their persistent falsehoods, his campaign is in no position to criticize, especially when they continue to distort Barack's votes on an issue as personal as keeping kids safe from sexual predator."

A new round of Marist polls gives Barack Obama the lead in three key swing states:

• In Michigan, Obama has built up a strong lead of 52%-43% among likely voters, outside of the ±4% margin of error.

• In Ohio, Obama is ahead 47%-45% among likely voters, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Most polls have McCain ahead here, and this might explain the difference: In this one, Obama has consolidated the support of 90% of Democrats, while most others show him losing more defectors to McCain.

• In Pennsylvania, Obama has a lead of 49%-44% among likely voters, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

The economic crisis could be helping Obama to consolidate Democratic support, with over 40% of voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania listing the economy as their top issue, and a full majority saying so in Michigan.

The McCain campaign, clearly struggling in its efforts to prevent Obama from owning the economy as his issue, goes up with two spots in economically distressed swing states that promise active government intervention to rescue ailing industries.

Here's the ad in Michigan, promising to help the state's auto industry:

And here's an Ohio version, essentially the same ad but targeted at that state's small businesses and manufacturing sector:

That McCain, a self-professed champion of smaller government and lower spending, is being dragged towards Obama's embrace of government largesse to shore up struggling industries is yet another sign of how much the race has shifted amid the financial crisis.

A new set of CNN battleground state polls, all conducted in the days after the Republican convention wrapped up, suggests the presidential race remains close in four key states despite John McCain's national bounce:

• In Michigan, which voted for John Kerry by three points in 2004, Barack Obama is ahead 51%-45%.

• In Missouri, which George W. Bush carried by seven points in 2004, John McCain currently has a 50%-45% lead.

• In New Hampshire, which went to Kerry by a very narrow one-point margin, Obama is up 51%-45%.

• In Virginia, which Bush carried by eight points but has also become much bluer in the last four years, McCain has a lead of 50%-46%.

Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.

The polls for Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire all have a margin of error of ±3%, while the margin in Virginia is ±3.5%

The DNC is stepping up its attacks on John McCain as being more of the same in a pretty clever way: Their new ad in Michigan shows McCain and Bush saying essentially the exact same thing about how well the economy is going:

"It sounds like a broken record," the announcer says, "because it is."

Report: McCain Running Mate Will Be ... ???
Various reports are coming out about John McCain's veep-hunt, with Mark Halperin reporting that GOP sources say it will be Mitt Romney. On the other hand, the New York Times reports that the campaign is considering another pick: General David Petraeus.

Both Presidential Candidates Off The Trail Today
Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain have any scheduled public events for today.

Obama VP Could Be Today -- Or Tomorrow?
The Associated Press reports that Barack Obama could announce his running mate as early as today. On the other hand, Obama has already said he's decided who it's going to be, so it should be either today or tomorrow -- which is to say, the AP doesn't have any more of a clue about when the announcement is coming than the rest of us do.

Report: Obama Tells Runners-Up They Didn't Get It
CNN reports that Barack Obama has called several candidates who were on his short list for VP, to tell them that they didn't get it. But as you might expect, CNN was not able to find out who actually got these calls.

Poll: Obama Ahead In Michigan
A new Selzer poll of Michigan gives Barack Obama a 46%-39% lead in this must-win state, beyond the ±3% margin of error. However, the pollster's analysis finds that one third of respondents could potentially change their minds, and the race could come down to which topics dominate the race -- if it's about the economy then Obama wins, while McCain would benefit from a focus on national security.

Ticketless Obama Supporters Heading To Denver, Anyway
Tickets to the Democratic convention have already run out, but that's not stopping some people -- the Los Angeles Times reports that hundreds, maybe even thousands, of people are heading to Denver just so they can stand outside.

Hillary Still Deep In Debt
Hillary Clinton's debt-relief efforts were only able to raise $1.2 million in the month of July, leaving her with $11 million in remaining debts to vendors. Another $13 million is owed to candidate herself, for a total of $24 million, but she has said she will not seek to have her personal loans paid back.

In a possible sign that a real third-party attack apparatus could take shape and swift-boat Barack Obama with ads, a new entity calling itself the "American Issues Project" has produced a new spot going after Barack Obama for his past associations with Bill Ayers the former leader of the 1960s radical group the Weathermen:

The ad, which was first reported by the Politico, does stretch a major point here -- there is no evidence that Ayers was involved in the 1971 Capitol Hill bombing, which was headed up by a rival faction within the Weathermen after he'd already gone into hiding. Then again, that's not exactly a point the Obama camp would want to have to argue over.

While the group has said they will spend $2.8 million to air the ad, there seems to be some uncertainty over whether they actually have the money or a real expectation of getting it. The Associated Press reports that the ad is expected to begin airing today in Michigan, and tomorrow in Ohio.

Late Update: It's also important to note that any Obama-Ayers connection is, as the Washington Post said, "a tenuous one," involving two people who merely served together in respected community groups.

New Obama Ad: McCain Has Voted Against Fixing Energy For 26 Years
Barack Obama has a new ad on energy issues, following through on one of the key attack lines from his speech yesterday -- that John McCain can't be trusted on energy, because he's been around for 26 years and hasn't accomplished anything:

Obama Talking About Energy In Ohio Today
Barack Obama is in Ohio today, where he'll be holding town halls in the blue-collar areas of Youngstown and Berea, focusing on energy issues. "Unfortunately, in this election, Senator McCain has proposed an energy plan that's nothing but four years more of the same," Obama will say, according to pre-released excerpts."

McCain Visiting Nuclear Plant In Michigan
John McCain is set to visit a nuclear power plant in the swing state state of Michigan today, a play for a state that hasn't voted Republican since 1988. Expect McCain to hammer Obama on energy issues, falsely accusing him of opposing nuclear power because he doesn't want to relax regulations in the way McCain does.

Poll: McCain Takes Narrow Lead
Another national poll shows John McCain edging into a narrow national lead against Barack Obama. The new numbers from Zogby: McCain 42%, Obama 41%, and Barr and Nader at 2% each, with a ±3.1% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama was ahead 46%-36%.

Obama Celebrates Birthday With $4 Million Fundraiser
Barack Obama had a very happy birthday indeed, celebrating the occasion with mega-fundraising dinner in Boston last night. The Boston Herald reports that the dinner took in an estimated $4 million, with guests paying anywhere between $1,000 and $28,500 each.

Time: "Obama Is Right" And GOP Wrong On Tire Pressure
Time thoroughly debunks Republicans who are heckling Obama for telling people to maintain their tires in order to improve fuel efficiency. It turns out that expanded drilling would meet one percent of the nation's fuel needs, while better car and tire maintenance would lower fuel consumption by up to seven points if everyone did it. "In other words," the magazine concludes, "Obama is right."

GOP Registrations Declining Nationwide
The New York Times reports that Republican voter registrations have declined all across the country, while Democratic and independent registrations increased. The Times says that "voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles."

Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.

Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:

Colorado
McCain (R) 46% (+2)
Obama (D) 44% (-5)

Michigan
Obama (D) 46% (-2)
McCain (R) 42% (+0)

Minnesota
Obama (D) 46% (-8)
McCain (R) 44% (+7)

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 50% (-1)
McCain (R) 39% (+0)

From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."

Obama To Meet With Merkel Next Week
Barack Obama will be meeting this coming Thursday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has opposed his campaign's floated idea of speaking at the Brandenburg Gate. However, it appears Obama will still have the chance to personally meet with the conservative head of government when he tours Europe.

McCain In Michigan Today
John McCain is holding a town hall today in Michigan, a state that his campaign is aggressively targeting to turn from blue to red. Given the state's troubled automotive industry, expect McCain to push his gas tax holiday proposals. The Obama campaign has not announced any events for today.

Netroots Nation: Fox News Is Opinion Journalism
The Netroots Nation convention has adopted a fun policy for Fox News: If any Fox correspondents come by, their credentials badges will classify them as opinion journalism. For their part, Fox News isn't sending anybody over.

Freedom's Watch Making Robocalls On Oil Drilling
Right-wing independent group Freedom's Watch has stepped up its robocall campaign against targeted House Democrats. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that the group is now hitting both of the state's Dem members of Congress, with calls declaring that "The only thing standing between us and billions of barrels of American oil are Democrats in Congress."

House Dem Facing Tougher Race This Fall
CQ has changed their rating for the Pennsylvania seat of Dem Rep. Paul Kanjorski from "Safe Democrat" to only "Leans Democrat." Kanjorski easily won re-election in 2006, but this year he faces a very well-financed challenge from Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta.

Bush Sewage Plant Initiative Makes The Ballot In San Fran
A voter initiative in San Francisco to rename a sewage plant in honor of George W. Bush has received a sufficient number of signatures, and will appear on the November ballot. The idea was hatched by a group calling itself the "Presidential Memorial Commission," which by their own admission was formed over drinks at a bar.

Barack Obama has secured a decent-sized lead in Michigan, a must-win swing state where he'd previously been a lot weaker, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 39%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had taken a small lead of 45%-42%, just as he'd sewn up the Democratic nomination.

Obama had stayed away from the state until very late in the game, due to the controversies surrounding their rogue primaries, but he appears to have overcome any lingering bitterness surrounding the matter that might have been out there.

The Obama campaign is quickly striking back at the RNC's spot on energy policy, airing an ad of their own that goes after John McCain.

The ad will run in the same four swing states as the RNC's spot -- Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and rebuts the GOP's accusation that Obama doesn't have an energy plan in two ways: Explaining what Obama's policies actually are, and tying John McCain to the unpopular President Bush.

Check it out:

"McCain and Bush support a drilling plan that won't produce a drop of oil for seven years," the announcer says. "McCain will give more tax breaks to big oil. He's voted with Bush 95% of the time."

Looks like the Republican money machine is really gearing up to go after Barack Obama.

The Republican National Committee -- the one arm of the GOP that has consistently out-raised its Democratic counterpart -- is planning to throw its formidable cash advantage into a new round of ads going after Barack Obama, set to air in the swing states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Roll Call reports that the RNC's initial ad campaign will cost $3 million, and go after Obama on "energy security" -- clearly part of McCain's current efforts to rephrase the issue of fuel prices in terms of national security rather than economics. The RNC's ad campaign was first reported by the Politico.

Despite all the talk about Barack Obama's fundraising prowess, it's worth keeping it in some perspective. The most recent numbers up through May showed that the RNC had a $50 million advantage over the DNC, way ahead of Obama's cash lead over McCain -- thus giving the GOP the real advantage in this area for now, unless the June numbers and Obama's decision to opt out of public finance can change things drastically.

Barack Obama is well-positioned to win a set of key swing states, a new round of Quinnipiac polls suggests -- and some of these aren't even close. The numbers:

Colorado
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Margin of error: ±2.7%.

Michigan
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Minnesota
Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 37%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 39%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin all voted narrowly for John Kerry and Al Gore, while Colorado gave its nine electoral votes to George W. Bush twice. So it's definitely a good sign for Obama that he's way ahead in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has decent-sized leads in both Colorado and Michigan.

Another swing-state poll suggests that the damage done to Democratic unity by the bitter primary has been exaggerated. The new Michigan numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 48%, McCain 39%, with a ±4.1% margin of error.

Obama previously trailed McCain in this state according to most pollsters, due in large part to the controversy surrounding the rogue primary keeping him out of the state. However, recent numbers have shown him moving into a lead as he's been able to freely campaign here.

Here's what the pollster has to say about the larger trend at work here: "Every new poll PPP does in a swing state provides more evidence that talk of long term Democratic disunity because of the drawn out contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was over blown."

The Gore event yesterday gives Obama exactly the headlines he wanted today in the Detroit papers...

Obama has edged into a lead in polls of the crucial state, now that he's started to campaign there in earnest.

The fact that Al Gore is campaigning for Barack Obama -- as the Obama campaign announced today -- could give Obama a big boost among undecided Dems, particularly people who are still embittered by the divisive primary.

That's because Gore is the man who suffered the ultimate electoral highway robbery when he was robbed in 2000. Furthermore, his presence will serve as a warning to any disgruntled Hillary supporters: Just as the Nader voters' obstinacy gave us Bush, a lack of party unity can hurt us all by helping to elect McCain.

Gore announced his endorsement of Obama in a post on his own blog, with a teaser about the Detroit rally tonight.

Barack Obama is campaigning today in Michigan, a must-win state where he's facing something of a late start.

Obama will speak in Flint, a blue-collar area where a Democrat has to run up big totals in order to win statewide, with a speech on maintaining competitiveness in the global marketplace.

The primary controversies kept him out of here for much of the year, hurting his poll numbers against McCain, but recent surveys show he's starting to take the lead.

John McCain is making a major play for Michigan, a must-win swing state for Barack Obama, with ad buys estimated at $500,000 per week.

Obama was hurt somewhat by the controversies surrounding Michigan's rogue primaries, mainly due to his inability to actively organize and campaign here as he did in almost all of the other states.

A recent poll gave Obama a narrow lead here, as he plays catch-up in campaign appearances. But make no mistake -- given Michigan's historically close results in the presidential race, both nominees will be spending a lot of time and money here.

The controversy over the failed revote in Michigan -- a crucial state for Dems -- may not be hurting the Dem nominee after all, a new poll suggests.

The new Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead of John McCain 45%-42%, a result within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, it was McCain who had the statistically insignificant edge, coming in at 45% to Obama's 44%.

There was previously some concern that the battle over the state's delegates might hurt Obama's electability here. But with those questions settled and Obama now the presumptive Democratic nominee, expect him to making even more appearances here in order to secure this Dem-leaning swing state -- and except McCain to be stopping by, too.

In a huge blow to Hillary's hopes, such as they are, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has now voted in favor of a compromise measure for Michigan, giving 69 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton and 59 to Barack Obama at a half-vote each.

This effectively ends Hillary's bid to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations in full -- which she was hoping for in a last-ditch effort to close the delegate count and, more importantly for her campaign's moral arguments, to try to narrow Obama's unofficial popular vote lead.

Still, Hillary's chief delegate counter, Harold Ickes, seemed to signal that there's still a possibility that she might fight on. In a harsh tone of voice, Ickes told the committee that Hillary personally informed him that she reserves the right to take the dispute over Michigan to the Credentials Committee in Denver, on the grounds that the committee had no right to transfer "Uncommitted" votes over to Obama.

The 69-59 measure was put forth by the state party's leadership, with Sen. Carl Levin arguing for full voting rights for each delegate. It remains to be seen whether he will fight on over the question of half-votes, or whether the matter is now effectively over.

The vote was 19 in favor to eight opposed, less than the unanimity received by the Florida half-vote compromise.

Hillary's total advantage in pledged delegates for Michigan and Florida is now set at +24 -- well short of the advantage of more than +100 that she once hypothetically enjoyed.

Former Michigan Governor James Blanchard, the Clinton campaign's representative at the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee hearing, has just laid out the campaign's position in favor of a full seating of Michigan delegates on the basis of the January 15 rogue primary.

Blanchard argued that the primary was not flawed, as many have argued, and criticized Barack Obama and three other candidates for removing their names from the ballot. "It doesn't make the election flawed," said Blanchard. "In my opinion, they had a flawed strategy."

"It makes no sense for our party's rules to be used to disenfranchise voters," Blanchard later added. "That is not the Democratic way, that is not the American way."