CNN and MSNBC have just called Maine for Obama, giving him another sizable victory in a state that was supposed to act as a check on his momentum after yesterday's trio of landslide wins. Instead, tonight's outcome gave him another burst of forward motion in a month that's shaping up as a very dark one indeed for Hillary.

With 70% reporting, Obama had 58% to Hillary's 41%. The surprisingly big victory for Obama came on the same day as the Hillary campaign signaled a recognition of its travails by announcing a shuffling of their inner circle, replacing campaign manager and longtime loyalist Patti Solis Doyle with longtime Hillary confidant Maggie Williams.

Obama's victory effectively left Hillary advisers grappling with the possibility that the worst case scenario that they'd been anticipating for some time could come true: The prospect of no victories for the rest of February. This coming Tuesday, Obama could very well sweep the Potomac Primary -- Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C.

Obama's prospects are also pretty good in Wisconsin a week later, because he can run especially well in two major Dem strongholds, the left-wing college town of Madison and the urban center of Milwaukee, as well as in other locales.

That leaves the Hillary campaign potentially staring across a bleak February landscape all the way to March 4th for a real shot at turning the narrative of the race around -- a grim set of circumstances that Hillary advisers have been anticipating for some time.

Time and again in this race, though, Hillary has had her back to the wall, only to find that the female vote, perhaps driven by the sight of Hillary on the verge of defeat, has rallied around her and changed the story-line of the race. Women helped drive her surprise victory in New Hampshire, and were an instrumental part of her winning coalition of female, Latino, working class and older voters that propelled her to key victories in big states on Feb. 5th.

The question now is how strong Hillary's coalition will prove in March, in the face of whatever momentum Obama builds coming out of what are expected to be repeated victories throughout the rest of the month. Of course, it's perfectly possible that whatever momentum he has, the proportional system will ensure that this race grinds on all the way until the convention. Advisers from both campaigns have predicted this outcome. And super-delegates are another wild card.

Which is to say, as big as Obama's victory was tonight and yesterday, and while he's in a strong position, it's still anyone's guess how this comes out.

Woah. With 44% reporting, Obama has jumped to a big lead.

57%-42%.

Remember, this was the state that was supposed to slow Obama's momentum after the trio of victories yesterday. Not happening yet.

Late Update: This spread is still the same, but with 59% now reporting. Should be calling it soon.

Super Tuesday is hardly over, but the Democratic campaigns are already geared up for some big races this weekend, with a total of 182 delegates up for grabs. Barack Obama is currently favored in three out of four of the contests, with only one possibly leaning to Hillary Clinton.

Our handy rundown is available after the jump.

Read more »

In an interview with a local news station in Maine, Bill Clinton admitted that he'd erred by over-zealously defending Hillary in the run-up to the South Carolina primary. Asked by a reporter if he regretted his perceived attacks on Obama, he replied...

Bill said:

"The mistake that I made is to think that I was a spouse like any other spouse who could defend his candidate...I think I can promote Hillary but not defend her, because I was president."

He also steadfastly denied having attacked Obama directly:

"A lot of things that were said were factually inaccurate. I did not ever criticize Senator Obama personally in South Carolina, I never criticized him personally...I think whenever I defend her, I (a) risk being misquoted and (b) risk being the story. I don't want to be the story."

It's a bit surprising that he -- or her advisers -- didn't think through this dynamic in advance, but there you have it.

The Obama campaign turns down Hillary's invitation to join her at a Maine town hall meeting this weekend, issuing this statement:

“Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have debated 18 times already, and they will debate again. But that schedule will not be dictated by the Clinton campaign. There are a lot of people looking forward to seeing Senator Obama in Bangor on Saturday, and we’ll be keeping that commitment.”

Which gives the Hillary campaign the sort of headline they want in the local Maine press. As Ben Smith notes, the Hillary campaign is pressing this local-press-friendly strategy in multiple states.

In an unusual move, Hillary is inviting Barack Obama to appear with her side by side at a town hall meeting in Maine this weekend, when both are scheduled to be campaigning in the state.

In a statement sent to local reporters in Maine that someone forwarded our way, Hillary said: “With both of us in the state – I would like to invite him to join me for a joint town hall Saturday morning in Orono, ME, so that the people of Maine have a clear idea of the differences between us."

"It’s time for the people of this country and the caucus goers of Maine to pick a President," Hillary continues. "I hope Senator Obama will accept my invitation to help them do just that.”

If Obama were to accept, it would obviously create a big media event.

The move comes as the Hillary campaign is pressing Obama to spend more time in face-to-face debates with her. Such moves reflect the Hillary campaign's belief that she does well in forums where she's allowed to debate the issues head-to-head with Obama, as opposed to letting him largely frame the race from the stump with his superior oratorical skills.

If Obama doesn't accept, she could argue that he's reluctant to discuss the issues before Maine voters; of course, he could also seek to dismiss Hillary's invite as a stunt. We'll keep you posted.

Late Update: Obama turns down her invite.

Mitt Romney can now claim to have won the final Republican contest before Super Tuesday: The Maine caucuses, which are being held town by town throughout this weekend. With 68% of the towns reporting, the Associated Press has projected Romney the winner with 52% of the state delegates to John McCain's 21%, followed by Ron Paul at 19% and Mike Huckabee with 6%.

That said, Romney probably won't get much of a bump here. After all, Maine is a small and out of the way state — and his victory in Wyoming didn't help him any in New Hampshire three days later.

Primaries, caucuses, and more primaries -- now that we know that the Democratic and Republican races are in it for the long haul, what exactly lies ahead?

What primaries are the key races? Who's leading in which states? What are the main issues at play in each local contest? What local players are backing whom?

Our full road map to what's ahead is after the jump.

Read more »