In a further indication of just how closely contested this Fall's campaign could be, a new round of Rasmussen polls in Virginia and North Carolina show that the elections for even these Republican base states are running close:

North Carolina
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%, Clinton (D) 40%

Virginia
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 41%

North Carolina hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter's win in 1976, while Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.

The McCain seems to be making a big play for Iowa, where polling has shown him trailing Barack Obama. They have premiered this new ad, in which McCain promises to look out for people on economic issues:

"The great goal is to get the American economy running at full strength again," McCain says, "creating the opportunities Americans expect and the jobs Americans need."

John McCain has offered a creative new justification for the use of Obama's alleged endorsement by Hamas as an issue in the campaign: Even though Obama clearly has nothing in common with the organization, people will care about it, anyway.

"It's very obvious to everyone that Senator Obama shares nothing of the values or goals of Hamas, which is a terrorist organization," McCain said. "But it's also a fact that a spokesperson from Hamas said that he approves of Obama's candidacy. I think that's of interest to the American people."

With the Obama and McCain camps just about ready to proceed to the general election campaign, the insults are already flying fast between them. The latest: McCain aide Mark Salter says Obama was unfairly attacking McCain's age in his rebuttal to McCain's association of Obama with Hamas.

Appearing on CNN earlier, Obama said that McCain was "losing his bearings" by making the Hamas comments, which Salter called "a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue."

"It is important to focus on what Senator Obama is attempting to do here," said Salter. "He is trying desperately to delegitimize the discussion of issues that raise legitimate questions about his judgment and preparedness to be President of the United States."

John McCain has an interesting new ad aimed at women, featuring his mother reminiscing with him about his birth:

The spot is running on select cable channels, many with largely female audiences: ABC Family, A&E, Hallmark Channel, Lifetime, Oxygen and TLC.

The ad seems to be aiming for two birds with one stone: Reaching out to women voters, and also assuring people that John McCain couldn't possibly be too old if his mother is able to shoot an ad with him.

The latest CBS/New York Times poll has some good news and some bad news for Barack Obama. The good news is that despite the recent headaches of his Pennsylvania loss and the reemergence of Jeremiah Wright, he's actually leading Hillary Clinton by a little more than he was four weeks ago:

Obama 46% (+0)
Clinton 38% (-5)

On the other hand, he now doesn't do as well against John McCain as Clinton does:

Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 43%

Another danger sign for Obama: In the last poll his personal rating was 43% favorable to only 24% unfavorable. Now it's 39% favorable and 34% unfavorable, a ten-point increase in his negatives. On the other hand, this is still better than Hillary's 36%-42% rating, and McCain's 33%-34% rating.

This is fun. A Democratic National Committee spokesperson confirms to me that the DNC, somewhat puckishly, asked Fox News if the network would run its ad attacking McCain over his 100-years Iraq talk -- and that Fox has agreed.

The reason this is amusing is that the Republican National Committee has been claiming that the ad is misleading and constitutes illegal coordination with the Dem campaigns, and has demanded that networks refrain from running it.

But the RNC's argument is apparently so specious that not even Fox accepted it.

Progressive Media U.S.A., the third-party pro-Dem group that has vowed to raise $40 million to target McCain in advance of the general election, is already feeling the influence of its new leader, Media Matters' David Brock.

The group has just launched a new McCain "fact check" site called McCainSource.com whose goal is to keep the press' coverage of McCain on the up and up.

Fact-check sites that are essentially appendages of campaigns have been all the rage in this election, but this one could prove a useful resource. Take a look.

John McCain has a new ad airing in Iowa, featuring the candidate speaking to the camera and pitching his health care plan to voters in a key swing state -- an indication that McCain is looking to shore up his standing on domestic issues:

Iowa voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly for President Bush in 2004, and polls this year have mostly shown McCain trailing Barack Obama and beating Hillary Clinton here. So no matter who the Democratic nominee ends up being, expect this state to be very closely contested.

The Republican National Committee has developed a new method for rebutting attack ads against John McCain: Send threatening letters to any cable networks that might run them.

RNC chief counsel Sean Cairncross has notified NBC, CNN and MSNBC that he believes the new Democratic ad attacking John McCain's "maybe a hundred" years in Iraq line is illegal on two counts: 1) It is misleading, in that Cairncross says it distorts McCain's words, and 2) It constitutes collaboration between the Clinton and Obama camps and the DNC in fashioning a message against McCain.

During a conference call today with reporters, DNC chairman Howard Dean denied any collaboration with the Obama or Clinton camps in making the ad, and had this to say when asked whether he actually expected any real legal action on the RNC's part, beyond threatening letters: "Let them do it."

A new AP/Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton performing better than Barack Obama in a national match-up against John McCain:

Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%

For comparison, here's the previous AP/Ipsos poll from April 10:

Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%

While the movement for the individual candidates is not statistically significant, it nevertheless shows some potential bounce in Hillary's favor since her Pennsylvania win -- something that is likely to be touted by her campaign.

John McCain is reversing his previous view that he wouldn't make an issue of the Jeremiah Wright controversy -- and claiming the blessing of Barack Obama himself in calling it a real political issue.

"I have said that I will not ... have any comment on it and that's because I thought and I believe that Sen. Obama does not share those views," McCain said. "But Sen. Obama himself says it's a legitimate political issue, so I would imagine that many other people will share that view, and it'll be in the arena."

Here the full context of what Obama said on Fox News Sunday, via Nexis:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMIAH WRIGHT: I felt it was unfair. I felt it was unjust. I felt it was untrue. I felt that those who were doing that were doing it for some devious reasons.

(END VIDEO CLIP) WALLACE: Question: Do you think that Reverend Wright is just the victim here?

OBAMA: No. I think that people were legitimately offended by some of the comments that he had made in the past. The fact he's my former pastor I think makes it a legitimate political issue. So I understand that.

I think that it is also true that to run a snippet of 30-second sound bites, selecting out of a 30-year career, simplified and caricatured him and caricatured the church.

The Democratic National Committee has announced a new ad against John McCain, set to air on national cable TV. Their previous ad took McCain on regarding the economy, while this one goes after him for Iraq -- specifically his comment about staying "maybe a hundred" years over there:

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee said in a press release that not only is this ad false, but it constitutes coordination with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: "This morning we saw yet another advertisement being announced by the Democrat National Committee which is not only illegal, but a complete distortion of Senator McCain's comments and record."

The McCain camp has just blasted out a statement saying that Obama's alleged "endorsement" by Hamas will "definitely be an issue in the election," an indication that McCain intends to honor his promise of a "civil" campaign more in the breach than in the observance.

McCain spokesman Brian Rogers called the supposed endorsement by Hamas, something that McCain hit Obama for earlier today, "a legitimate issue for the American people to think about," on the basis of Obama's call for negotiations with Iran.

Rogers added: "It is not only responsible to raise these critical issues in this election, but it would be the height of irresponsibility not to have this discussion with the American people."

Read more »

So much for John McCain's promise of a "civil" campaign. In a conference call with bloggers today, McCain defended his campaign's fundraising e-mail declaring that Hamas wants Barack Obama to win.

"All I can tell you Jennifer [Rubin] is that I think it's very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president of the United States," McCain said. "So apparently has Danny Ortega and several others. I think that people should understand that I will be Hamas's worst nightmare ... If Senator Obama is favored by Hamas I think people can make judgments accordingly."

Howard Dean -- trying to soften up McCain even as the Dem candidates continue bludgeoning each other -- is jumping into the battle over the North Carolina GOP's anti-Obama ad, demanding that McCain show some leadership and get the ad pulled.

As you know, the North Carolina Republicans are preparing to run a spot attacking local Dems over Obama's ties to controversial pastor Jeremiah Wright. As you also know, McCain has said that he doesn't think Wright is a legit issue.

McCain has asked the NC GOP not to run an ad -- but it's unclear whether he's really tried to get it yanked.

Now Dean is hitting McCain for his inaction.

"This is a test of leadership for John McCain. If he can't pick up the phone and make members of his own party stop airing a television ad he claims to oppose, how can he lead our country through an economic crisis or the war in Iraq?" Dean said in a statement just emailed over by the DNC. "If he is serious, he will get this ad pulled."

This one bears watching. We're going to see if any North Carolina GOP officials also occupy spots on McCain's campaign.

If so, McCain could simply threaten to fire them from his campaign until the local party agrees not to air the ad. Couldn't he?

The Democratic National Committee has seriously upped its ad campaign against John McCain, with the latest FEC filing showing a $500,000 buy to run the spot on the economy that they previewed over the weekend.

With the Democratic candidates still beating each other up, the DNC has had to step in and do some of the heavy lifting in taking on John McCain rather than let him enjoy a free ride in the press. And this is not a small problem, either -- the DNC has been the one area of Democratic fundraising to seriously lag behind its Republican counterpart.

A DNC staffer told us that the ad will run on national cable.

That's what a new Siena College poll out today finds.

It suggests that the harsh campaign Hillary is running against Obama could be blowing back on her in her home state. Hillary has a favorability rating of less than 50% in New York -- 48%, to be exact. It's the lowest ever in Siena polling.

Meanwhile, Obama has a fave rating of 54%.

Even John McCain has a higher fave rating than Hillary in New York -- he checks in at 54%, too.

Nonetheless, Hillary is beating McCain 46%-42% in the state, while Obama is beating him 45%-40%.

John McCain is kicking off a new campaign tour to focus on poverty in America, a sign that his campaign might be feeling the heat of the latest Democratic attacks against him as being out of touch on the economy.

"This week, I will be traveling to places in America that aren't enjoying the prosperity many other parts of America enjoy, but where people are walking a long, hard road to make sure that their children will know the opportunities that other American children possess," McCain will say in Selma, Alabama.

"They are places that for too long suffered too many disadvantages, but where people of good character and stout hearts believe in the possibility of making the future better than the past, the essence of the American Dream."

The full prepared speech is available after the jump.

Read more »

During his appearance today on This Week, John McCain said it was "probably" a mistake to seek out the endorsement of John Hagee, the apocalyptic Texas preacher.

On the other hand, McCain did say he was "glad to have" Hagee's endorsement: "I admire and respect Dr. Hagee's leadership ... I admire and appreciate his advocacy for the state of Israel, the independence of the state of Israel."

Somewhat awkwardly, this line of questioning was in the middle of the same interview where McCain condemned Barack Obama's past associations with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers.

Barack Obama is finding himself caught in a new gaffe, when he conceded that any of the current candidates -- including John McCain -- would be a better president than George W. Bush.

"You have a real choice in this election. Either Democrat would be better than John McCain. And all three of us would be better than George Bush," Obama told a town hall event in Pennsylvania. "But what you have to ask yourself is, who has the chance to actually, really change things in a fundamental way?"

Hillary Clinton was quick to pounce, in light of this seeming violation of this standard Dem line that McCain is simply running to carry out Bush's third term: "We need a nominee who will take on John McCain, not cheer on John McCain."

John McCain is seizing on an opening provided by last week's Democratic debate, attacking Barack Obama for his past associations with William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground.

"I'm sure he's very patriotic," McCain said of Obama. "But his relationship with Mr. Ayers is open to question."

McCain added: "He became friends with him and spent time with him while the guy was unrepentant over his activities as a member of a terrorist organization, the Weathermen."

This is on top of the McCain campaign's other recent move associating Obama with terrorism, a fundraising letter saying Obama has the endorsement of Hamas. In short, prepare yourselves for a lot more fun moments like this, should Barack Obama ultimately win the Democratic nomination.

The Democratic National Committee just released this new ad hitting McCain on the economy -- its first run is this morning on ABC, during George Stephanopoulos' interview with the Arizona Senator...

The DNC promises a sizable cable buy for the ad. The spot reflects a recognition in Democratic circles that while the two leading Dems continue to tear into each other in a contest that could continue for months to come, McCain has thus far been able to build his campaign apparatus and define himself with a relatively free hand.

The difficulty for the Dems right now is that as long as the Dem primary drags on, it will continue to suck up much of the media oxygen, making it all but impossible to mount any sort of effective effort to frame McCain the way Dems hope to.

Without a Democratic nominee to directly take on McCain and command media attention for the Dem message about him, this will continue to be a serious challenge for Dems. It remains to be seen whether such efforts by the DNC change this at all.