MA-Pres

Hillary Pollster Mark Penn: Obama Has Become The "Establishment Candidate"

This one is worth keeping an eye on, because we'll be hearing more of it in the days ahead. In the Clinton campaign conference call I mentioned below, Hillary pollster Mark Penn repeatedly said Obama was becoming an "establishment candidate" -- a rather strained effort to use Obama's high-profile endorsements to weaken his insurgent appeal.

Asked about Obama's loss in Massachusetts despite the Teddy Kennedy endorsement, Penn again reiterated the fact that voters making up their minds on the last day had broken for Hillary, suggesting (without quite saying) that this was somehow catalyzed by Obama's new high-profile support.

"The more that Senator Obama has shifted to becoming an establishment campaign based on endorsements, people said, `You know, it's really Senator Clinton who has the ideas for change,'" Penn told reporters.

Again: Keep in mind that in advance of yesterday's contest, Hillary had a massive lead in Massachusetts for weeks. Anyway, we'll be hearing more of this.

Hillary Wins Massachusetts

MNSBC and Fox call Massachusetts for Hillary. Early on, she had a huge lead in some polls against Obama in that state, but Teddy Kennedy's endorsement of Obama caused the race to tighten up.

Hillary's team will spin the victory as proof that she won it in spite of the fact that both the state's Senators -- and the Kennedy "machine" -- backed Obama. The Obama camp, which would have loved to win this one as a big upset, will point to her smaller-than-before margin as proof that they made it closer in a key state.

Oh, and the nets are also calling New York for Hillary.

Late Update: MSNBC calls Delaware for Obama.

Late Late Update: As expected, the Hillary camp's statement is focused heavily on Obama's high profile endorsements in the state:

One of the biggest surprises of the night is Massachusetts

Despite the fact that Senators Ted Kennedy and John Kerry were actively supporting and campaigning for Obama, Hillary Clinton won the state.

Despite the fact that the Governor of Massachusetts endorsed Obama, Hillary Clinton won the state.

Despite the fact that Obama visited Massachusetts just last night, Hillary Clinton won the state.

This is a strong victory and shows that Hillary Clinton has strength in places where Barack Obama was expected to win.

But keep in mind that Hillary had a big, big lead in polls in Massachusetts for some time.

Late Update: Hillary wins New Jersey, and Oklahoma and Tennessee.


The Super Tuesday Polls Predict ... We Don't Know!

Thanks for bearing with us during out technical difficulties today. Here's a roundup of the various state polls that came out today, and what sense of direction they give for the Democratic primaries tomorrow. The bottom line: Your guess is really as good as ours about what's going to happen.

Hillary Clinton appears to be on track for roughly 55% in the New York Primary:

Quinnipiac: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%

SurveyUSA: Clinton 56%, Obama 38%

PPP (D): Clinton 52%, Obama 32%

Barack Obama, meanwhile, looks to be on the verge of an even greater majority in his home state:

SurveyUSA: Obama 66%, Clinton 30%

More polls after the jump.

Read more »

SurveyUSA: Hillary Leads By 24 Points In Massachusetts

The new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts gives Hillary Clinton a more than healthy lead in the state, despite Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to their previous poll from last week:

Clinton 57% (-2)
Obama 33% (+11)

The two are tied among men at 44% each, but Hillary has a 65%-26% lead among women.

A Rasmussen poll released last night gave Hillary only a six-point lead.

Rasmussen: Post-Kennedy Endorsement, Obama Only Down By Six In Massachusetts

A new Rasmussen poll in Massachusetts shows that Hillary Clinton is now barely ahead of Barack Obama, in the wake of the Ted Kennedy endorsement. Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 37% and the now-departed John Edwards with 11%.

Rasmussen did not have a previous poll of the Massachusetts primary. However, a SurveyUSA poll from last week, before Obama's political adoption by the Kennedy family, had Hillary ahead by a whopping 37 points. It looks like Massachusetts is officially a race now.

Report: Ted Kennedy Endorsing Obama

The Boston Globe is reporting that Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama, in a formal announcement scheduled for tomorrow.

The endorsement could go a long way in helping Obama with older voters and liberal activists. Another question is whether it could help Obama in Massachusetts, where Hillary Clinton has enjoyed a huge lead in the polls despite Obama already gaining the endorsements of John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick.

SurveyUSA: Hillary And Romney Way Ahead In Massachusetts

A new poll of Massachusetts by SurveyUSA shows that the endorsements of Sen. John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick haven't helped Barack Obama very much in this Super Tuesday state. Hillary Clinton has a huge lead with 59% support, followed by Barack Obama at 22% and John Edwards with 11%.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney enjoys a healthy lead in his home state: Romney 50%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 7%, Giuliani 6%, and Paul 3%.

Poll: McCain Most Electable Republican In Massachusetts

A new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts shows that despite his problems in all the primaries and caucuses, John McCain continues to be the most electable Republican, barely losing to Hillary Clinton and even edging out Barack Obama in this liberal state:

Clinton (D) 54%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 59%, Romney (R) 35%
Clinton (D) 61%, Huckabee (R) 31%
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 37%
Obama (D) 57%, Huckabee (R) 27%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%

Despite the fact that he was governor โ€” or perhaps because of his controversial tenure โ€” Mitt Romney doesn't even come close to being competitive in his home state. A month ago, his campaign tacitly conceded that they won't contest the state if Romney is nominated.

Massachusetts Moves Primary Up

Yet another state is joining the February 5 national primary. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick (D) signed a bill yesterday to move the state's primary up from March 4 โ€” which was the Super Tuesday date in the last cycle.

It's not clear, however, whether moving the primary up will actually make the state any more relevant. As the Washington Post points out, Democrats might focus their energies on larger states that day, like California, while Republicans might just concede the state to Mitt Romney, who served as governor and has been running a lot of ads in that media market in order to reach New Hampshire.

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