Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Uncle Ted To Address Alaska On Election Eve
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), who is widely expected to lose re-election as a result of his recent felony conviction, will make a final plea (no pun intended) for his political future tomorrow night. Stevens will air a two-minute TV ad across Alaska's media markets, making the case that he should be allowed to continue to serve as Alaska's senior Senator.

Minnesota GOP Mailer Lies About The Constitution
A mailer from the Minnesota Republican Party, provided to us by two different readers in the state, gets around the pitfall of implying that the presidential race is lost in its rhetorical efforts to keep the Democrats from getting 60 seats -- they just lie about how the Constitution works:

"The U.S. Senate could have a 'super majority' of 60 Democrats after this election, allowing them to pass laws without bipartisan input or teamwork," the mailer says. "Not even a Presidential Veto will be able to stop them." The actual threshold for overriding a presidential veto is 67 votes. Minnesota GOP spokesperson Gina Countryman refused to speak with Election Central to confirm or deny the authenticity of the mailer.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

DSCC Ad: Coleman Refuses To Answer Questions About Lawsuit Allegations
The DSCC ad is closing out the Minnesota Senate race with this new TV ad calling GOP Sen. Norm Coleman flagrantly corrupt, focusing on last-minute lawsuits alleging that a donor funneled $75,000 to the Senator via his wife:

The most recent polling has shown the momentum swinging back to Coleman after a period in which Al Franken had taken the lead. But if the local news media ends up being focused in the last few days on corruption allegations against Coleman, it's possible that the undecideds and soft supporters of third-party candidate Dean Barkley could break to Franken.

Coleman Ad Fires Back, Accuses Franken Of Being Behind The Suit
Norm Coleman had his own ad, accusing Al Franken of being behind the lawsuits and conspiring to attack Coleman's wife:

"This time, Al Franken's crossed the line," Coleman says, his wife by his side. "My name's on the ballot -- I'm fair game for his ugly smears. My wife and family are not." The Franken campaign has strongly denied any involvement in the lawsuits.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Candidate's Ad: Democrats Have Blown Up Our (Fiscal) Houses
Wow. Check out this truly amazing new ad from former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-PA), who lost her re-election in an upset in 2006, and is now in a rematch against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. The ad accuses the Democratic Congress of blowing up America's fiscal house:

Unfortunately, it looks like no real explosions were used in the making of this ad. Hart's campaign manager informed Election Central that the ad was most likely done with computers.

Franken's Closing Argument: Coleman Is "Trying To Fool You"
Here's Al Franken's new attack ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), accusing him of running a "fake positive campaign" and lying about his political record and personal scandals:

"Norm Coleman really did take 52 trips paid for by special interests -- remember Alaska?" the announcer says. "Norm Coleman really does live in a million-dollar home owned by his special-interest friend. Norm Coleman really has voted with George Bush almost 90% of the time."

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Hagan Files Lawsuit Against Dole Over Atheism Attack Ad, Launches Rebuttal Spot
Senate candidate Kay Hagan (D-NC) has announced that she is filing a defamation lawsuit against the campaign of GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, over an attack ad that accused Hagan of selling out to the Godless atheist agenda. Hagan also has this new rebuttal spot:

"I'm Kay Hagan, and Elizabeth Dole's attacks on my Christian faith are offensive. She even faked my voice in her TV ad to make you think I don't believe in God," Hagan says. "Well I believe in God. I taught Sunday school. My faith guides my life, and Senator Dole knows it. Sure,politics is a tough business, but I approve this message because my campaign is about creating jobs and fixing our economy -- not bearing false witness against fellow Christians."

Two More Polls Have Dole Losing
Meanwhile, two separate polls today show Hagan leading Dole by six points: Hagan is up 52%-46% in Rasmussen, with a ±4% margin of error, and Hagan is ahead 43%-37% in National Journal, with a ±4.9% margin of error.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Another Poll Shows Tight Race For Murtha
A new poll from the Las-Vegas based Dane & Associates, commissioned by GrassrootsPA.com, shows Jack Murtha with a bare lead of 46%-44% over GOP opponent William Russell, within the ±3% margin of error. GrassrootsPA.com is a right-wing site, but it should be noted that Dane is a non-partisan firm that has done polling work for politicians of both parties from across the country.

New Mahoney Ad: He's A Jerk, But Look At The Other Guy
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose sex scandal has probably doomed his bid for re-election, has this new ad in which constituents admit he's been a personal disappointment, but his opponent's positions on the issues would damage the country:

One line in particular seems poorly written for a politician in Mahoney's situation: "He (Rooney) doesn't have Congressman Mahoney's experience."

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In another sign that more and more GOPers are presuming an Obama victory, top McCain surrogate Mitt Romney confesses as much in a fundraising email he blasted out on behalf of GOP Senator Mitch McConnell.

In his email, Romney warns against electing McConnell's Dem challenger, Bruce Lunsford, as follows:

His opponent was handpicked by Chuck Schumer and will be a reliable vote for the Democrats. And as we face the very real possibility of an Obama presidency, that's the last thing we need.

It's more critical than ever that we have a strong Republican leader to act as a "firewall" against bad legislation, tax increases, and increased spending.

You're seeing more and more of this. Today the NRSC released an ad for embattled GOP Senator Gordon Smith that presumes an Obama victory by warning against "one party rule" in Washington.

McCain, too, has been arguing that he should be elected President in order to counter-balance the Dem Congress, which presumes Dems will win in the Congressional races, or at least that the GOP is doomed to remain in the minority. As one Dem joked to us recently: "Republicans launch new campaign theme: All the rest of us are gonna lose, so elect me."

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Releases Excerpt From The Kentucky Voice Recorder
The Kentucky voice-recorder saga -- involving a criminal complaint by the NRSC that the campaign of Dem Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford allegedly erased content from a voice recorder they secretly planted at his podium -- just keeps getting weirder. The NRSC has released this piece of audio recovered from the recorder after its return, of what appears to be an angry Lunsford telling his staffers not to give the recorder back:

This has got to be one of the most bizarre allegations of a dirty trick ever: That a campaign secretly planted a bug on an opposing candidate, then complained when the bug was not initially returned and may have been erased.

Murtha's Opponent Blasts Him On Racist/Redneck Comments
Check out this new ad from William Russell, the GOP candidate against Jack Murtha, hammering Murtha for referring to his western Pennsylvania constituents as rednecks and racists:

Murtha is usually a safe bet for re-election, but this gaffe may have landed him in serious trouble. A recent Susquehanna poll shows Murtha just edging out Russell 46%-41%. A fun part of this ad is its use of a computer interface to show videos of Murtha -- as if to say that the people of western Pennsylvania do in fact know how to read and use a computer.

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

National House Committees Shell Out Big Money, NRCC Finally In The Game
Both parties' national House committees shelled out big bucks in the newest federal filings. The DCCC spent nearly $4 million in yesterday's FEC filings, with the biggest expenditure going for $450,000 against Rep. Robin "Liberals Hate Real Americans" Hayes (R-NC). The NRCC, which has held on to its much smaller war chest until the home stretch of the campaign, spent $4.1 million, with the biggest payment going for over $450,000 to defend Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA).

DCCC Going On The Air Against Bachmann
The DCCC will be going on the air against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), with this ad attacking her for blaming the financial crisis on too much regulation of Wall St. -- and pointing out how much money she's received from Wall St. interests:

The DCCC has committed to spending $1 million on this race, sensing an opening in the wake of Bachmann's statements on Hardball that the media should investigate Barack Obama and other members of Congress for possible anti-American views, followed by her truly awkward attempts at denying she said it.

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Bachmann's Challenger Goes On The Air
Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) Democratic opponent El Tinklenberg is taking advantage of the huge windfall of donation he's gotten in the wake of Bachmann's Red-Scare-inciting Hardball appearance -- he's raised $700,000 in the last few days, and counting -- and is spending $188,000 to air this new spot introducing himself to voters:

This is very much a GOP district -- it voted 57%-42% for George W. Bush in 2004 -- but the Tinklenberg campaign hopes to capitalize on voter backlash against Bush Republicanism in general and against Bachmann's extremism in particular. Meanwhile, CQ has changed its rating on the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."

Bachmann Denies Questioning Obama's Patriotism
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is firing back at critics of her McCarthyite statements on Hardball last week. "Despite the way the blogs and the Democratic Party are spinning it, I never called all liberals anti-American, I never questioned Barack Obama's patriotism," Bachmann writes in a guest op-ed for the Politico. Here's what Bachmann said, via Nexis: "Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views."

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Bachmann Challenger's Fundraising Skyrockets
The campaign of Elwyn Tinklenberg, the Democratic challenger against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), tells Election Central that they've raised $650,000 online since her now-infamous McCarthyite appearance on Hardball. This is an astonishing number for a House race by any measure, and even more special in light of the fact that this is nearly twice his cash-on-hand at the end of September.

McConnell: I Would Still Back Iraq War, "Regardless Of The Initial Justification"
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) reaffirmed that he would have voted to authorize the Iraq War, even knowing now that there were no weapons of mass destruction. "Regardless of the initial justification, I don't think the Middle East or the world would be better off if he was there," McConnell told the Courier-Journal editorial board. "I think that is a substantial improvement."

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Coleman: I Won't Say War Was A Mistake, For The Sake Of The Dead
At a debate last night in the Minnesota Senate race, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) reiterated his position that he will not say the Iraq War was as mistake. Coleman put it in very stark terms: "I will not tell the parents of any kid who has died in Iraq that their son died because of a mistake. I simply will not do that."

GOP Poll: Mahoney Way Down
We usually don't cover internal polls, but this one probably deserves some attention. The campaign of House candidate Tom Rooney (R-FL) has put out a poll showing Rooney defeating scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent Tim Mahoney by a whopping 55%-29%. We'll probably see an independent poll of this race soon, and don't be too surprised if it also shows Mahoney losing.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Coleman Rebrands Himself As The "Hope" Candidate
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who dramatically announced that he was canceling his negative ads when poll data showed him falling behind Al Franken, is aggressively rebranding himself with some familiar language. The new example: Coleman kicked off a bus tour this morning with the title "The Hope Express." It should be said: Coleman has quite a bit of audacity.

GOP Keeps Up The Attacks Against Franken
Norm Coleman's declaration that he didn't want to run negative ads doesn't seem to have bothered the NRSC, who are making up the difference for him. Here's their new attack ad against Al Franken:

"Al Franken: He'd make things worse," the announcer says. This slogan has come up in multiple ads from the GOP. It's not clear just how effective it could be for an incumbent party to admit that things are bad, and then argue that the other guys shouldn't get elected because they would make it worse.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:

"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."

Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

The Worst Press Conference Ever?
You really have to watch this excruciating press conference given by Sen. Norm Coleman's (R-MN) campaign manager, in which he struggled to (not) answer questions about reports that his boss' clothes were paid for by one of his campaign contributors. Give it a look -- it's well worth your time.

House GOP Gets Huge Loan
In a sign of just how desperate things are going for the House Republicans, Roll Call reports that the NRCC has obtained an $8 million loan in order for them to be able to compete against their much better-funded Democratic counterparts. Deep thought: In this economy, one can only wonder what kind of interest rate they're being charged.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

New Dem Ad Dramatizes FBI Monitoring Ted Stevens
Check out this stunning new ad from the DSCC, depicting fictional FBI agents monitoring indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and listing his alleged crimes:

"And I voted for him," says a disappointed fictional agent.

Poll: Stevens Regains Narrow Lead In Alaska
A new Rasmussen poll has indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) taking a narrow 49%-48% lead over Democrat Mark Begich, helped in now small part by the presence of the state's favorite daughter Sarah Palin on the GOP ticket. But Uncle Ted is hardly out of the woods yet -- there's a chance he could be convicted of a felony before Election Day, which would probably impact his numbers in a negative fashion.

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Veterans Group To McConnell: Take Down Ad That Uses Our Name
The Military Order of the Purple Heart is demanding that the campaign of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell pull an ad in which a McConnell supporter identifies himself as a member of the organization and appears to speak on its behalf:

"I am a member of the Military Order of the Purple Heart, the official organization of combat-wounded veterans," says Lee Moore. "Our veterans demand an investigation into the negligent care that Bruce Lunsford's clinics provided." Moore then goes on to accuse Lunsford of manipulating an 83-year old veteran who appeared in a Lunsford ad defending the candidate. Lee Moore is not a spokesman for the group, and furthermore its bylaws forbid it from being involved in partisan politics.

Poll: Dem Narrowly Ahead For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows a close race for the open seat of Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), who left the seat open when she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for the Senate. The numbers: Democratic Martin Heinrich 43%, Republican Darren White 41%, within the ±4.9% margin of error.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Poll: GOP Senator Chambliss In Dead Heat For Re-Election
In a very interesting development, a new Research 2000 poll gives Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who was believed to be more or less invulnerable going into this campaign, a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-44% over Democrat Jim Martin. This corroborates a SurveyUSA poll taken last week, which put Chambliss ahead 46%-44%, as the economy continues to take a toll on Republicans even in seemingly safe places.

Dem Candidate Ties GOP Incumbent To Bush -- And Tuxedo-Wearing
This new ad from Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR) launches one of the most novel attacks on the economy that I've ever seen: It depicts incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) standing next to George W. Bush -- and they're both wearing tuxedos:

Maybe next, Merkley will run an ad tying Gordon Smith to the Monopoly Man.

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Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races.

Franken: My Ads Are About Norm Coleman's Record -- So They're Negative
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) debated last night against Al Franken and Independency Party candidate Dean Barkley. Franken got off this zinger when asked what he would do about negative ads that have taken over the race on all sides: "We've been running ads against Norm Coleman's record. So they're negative."

Franken: I'll Keep On Impersonating Wellstone
At a rally over the weekend featuring Al Gore, Al Franken declared that he would not be deterred from doing his goofy impression of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, who would manically shout "You can take this guy!" at his son's track and field meets. The GOP has been using video of Franken impersonating his departed friend and twisting it to look like Franken himself was being crazy and unstable.

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Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: Republicans are reacting to the economic crisis and the bad poll numbers with some apparently twisted and phony attacks against the Dems.

GOP Accused Of Twisting Video Of Franken
It looks like the NRSC, in their zeal to paint Al Franken as angry and unstable, have seriously twisted some key video out of context. Minnesota blog MNPublius found that the NRSC repeatedly used in their TV ads video of Franken yelling out, "You can take this guy!" in a manic fashion -- but it looks like he was doing an impression of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone at his son's track and field meets. Here's the original video:

McConnell Campaign Accused Of Lying To Veteran For Campaign Ad
Oh boy. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) has been airing attack ads charging that a chain of veterans' clinics run by Dem opponent Bruce Lunsford have offered inferior care. However, it turns out one of the veterans in the ad now says he was lied to and his words taken totally out of context. Now that same veteran is doing a Lunsford ad:

"Tricking veterans, twisting their words -- how low will Mitch McConnell go?" the announcer says. In response, McConnell has a revised ad without that particular veteran, and with other veterans who directly blast Lunsford by name.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Democrats are aggressively exploiting the political opportunities presented by the economic crisis -- while the Republicans are running in the other direction as they watch their numbers fall.

Mitch McConnell Turning Down Debates
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), who has found himself in some uncomfortably close polls against Dem businessman Bruce Lunsford, is refusing to debate. The campaign has rejected an invitation from the League of Women Voters and has not responded to one from Kentucky Educational Television, saying only that they'll hold a debate with the Paducah Sun in late October.

Dems Launch Ads About Social Security Privatization And Wall St.
The DCCC has a whole new wave of ads running in Pennsylvania and Indiana about Social Security -- and specifically, what would be happening if Social SEcurity were tied to the stock market in the middle of the banking crisis. Here's one of them in Pennsylvania:

"Barletta wanted to follow Bush right into this mess," the announcer says. "And with the markets in free-fall, where would our safety net be now?"

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The GOP may be panicking in the face of more poll numbers showing serious losses from the economic crisis, with a new round of nasty attack ads against the Dem candidates.

Another Poll Shows GOP Sen. Dole Losing Re-Election
The new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) trailing her Dem opponent Kay Hagan by a 46%-38% margin. PPP has tended to be the most favorable for Hagan, but even this lead is the widest one they've registered yet -- and on top of that, they've received corroboration from Rasmussen polls showing a narrow Hagan lead.

GOP Ad: Dem Challenger Is So Irresponsible, She Should Be On Wall St.
The NRSC is trying to make the economic crisis work for them in an odd place: The North Carolina Senate race, where economic anxiety has put incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) behind Dem challenger Kay Hagan in the polls:

"Balanced? That's a hoax -- Hagan just borrowed the money," the announcer says. "Maybe Hagan should skip Washington -- and go straight to Wall St."

One is reminded of a line from the fictionalized Pappy O'Daniel in O Brother, Where Art Thou?: "How we gonna run reform when we're the damn incumbent?"

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Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: The Wall St. bailout is dominating the discussion in the down-ticket races, with many Republicans taking political damage from the bad economic news.

Bailout Could Sink McConnell
The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that the political fallout over the Wall St. bailout is damaging the political standing of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, due in part to his fellow GOP Senator Jim Bunning undercutting McConnell's support with his own outspoken opposition. On top of that, the new Mason-Dixon poll has McConnell with a bare 45%-44% lead over Dem businessman Bruce Lunsford, and SurveyUSA has it as a 49%-46% lead.

Coleman Ad: Don't "Play The Blame Game" On Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has this new ad out reassuring voters on the Wall St. bailout, asking voters not to assess blame to anybody for the mess:

"We can point fingers, play the blame game, or pull together, restore confidence, and turn this country around," Coleman said. One is reminded of what Jon Stewart said after Katrina: Those people who say we shouldn't play the blame game are usually the people we should blame.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are leveraging their big financial advantage over the GOP into an extensive round of attack ads against the Republicans, in order to pick up some usually-tough seats this November.

National Dems Launch New Wave Of Attack Ads In House Races
The DCCC has launched a major TV attack ad offensive in districts across the country, some of them defending Dem-held seats but others running in GOP-held areas that are traditionally very difficult for the Dems. Ads will be running in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Here's one of the ads, running in a deep-red New Mexico district:

New York GOP Trying To Dump Candidate For Key House Seat
The race for the open seat of scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) just keeps getting weirder, with Manhattan Republicans now nominating unpopular GOP nominee Bob Straniere for an open judgeship as a means of getting him to drop out of the race -- but Straniere is refusing. National Republicans feel that their chances of holding the seat could potentially improve if they can substitute Fossella himself as the new candidate, but they're not optimistic that it will actually happen.

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